Tenofovir in second-line ART in Zambia and South Africa: collaborative analysis of cohort studies

Time to Treatment Failure and Its Predictors Among Second-Line ART Clients in Amhara Region, Ethiopia: A Retrospective Follow-Up Study

Background

Second-line antiretroviral treatment failure has become a major public health issue, and the time to treatment failure among second-line ART clients varies globally, and the Sub-Saharan African region having a high rate of second-line ART treatment failures. In addition, after the ART treatment guideline changed there is limited information on Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to assess time to treatment failure and its determinants among second-line ART clients in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

Methods

A multi-centered retrospective follow-up study was conducted. A random sample of 860 people on second-line ART was selected by using a computer-generated simple random sampling technique from January 30, 2016, to January 30, 2021, at the University of Gondar Compressive Specialized Hospital, Felege Hiwot Compressive Specialized Referral Hospital, and Debre Tabor Compressive Specialized Referral Hospital, in Amhara region, Ethiopia. Data was captured using a checklist.

Results

A total of 81 (9.4%) ART clients developed second-line treatment failure, with a median follow-up time of 29 months with an interquartile range (IQR: 18, 41]. The risk of second-line treatment failure is higher among patients aged 15 to 30 years (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): [1.16, 3.48]). Being unable to read and write (AHR = 1.312, 95% CI: [1.068, 1.613]), and poor ART drug adherence (AHR = 3.067, 95% CI: [1.845, 5.099]) were significant predictors of second-line ART treatment failures.

Conclusion

In the current study, the time to second-line ART treatment failure was high compared with a previous similar study in Ethiopia. Factors like being younger age, ART clients who are not being able to read and write, and having poor ART drug adherence was significant predictors of second-line ART treatment failure.

How soon should patients be eligible for differentiated service delivery models for antiretroviral treatment? Evidence from a retrospective cohort study in Zambia

OBJECTIVES

Patient attrition is high the first 6 months after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Patients with <6 months of ART are systematically excluded from most differentiated service delivery (DSD) models, which are intended to support retention. Despite DSD eligibility criteria requiring ≥6 months on ART, some patients enrol earlier. We compared loss to follow-up (LTFU) between patients enrolling in DSD models early with those enrolled according to guidelines, assessing whether the ART experience eligibility criterion is necessary.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected electronic medical record data.

SETTING

PARTICIPANTS: Adults (≥15 years) who initiated ART between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2020.

OUTCOMES

LTFU (>30 days late for scheduled visit) at 18 months for 'early enrollers' (DSD enrolment after <6 months on ART) and 'established enrollers' (DSD enrolment after ≥6 months on ART). We used a log-binomial model to compare LTFU risk, adjusting for age, sex, location, ART refill interval and DSD model.

RESULTS

For 6340 early enrollers and 25 857 established enrollers, there were no differences in sex (61% female), age (median 37 years) or location (65% urban). ART refill intervals were longer for established versus early enrollers (72% vs 55% were given 4-6 months refills). LTFU at 18 months was 3% (192 of 6340) for early enrollers and 5% (24 646 of 25 857) for established enrollers. Early enrollers were 41% less likely to be LTFU than established patients (adjusted risk ratio 0.59, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.68).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients enrolled in DSD after <6 months of ART were more likely to be retained than patients established on ART prior to DSD enrolment. A limitation is that early enrollers may have been selected for DSD due to providers' and patients' expectations about future retention. Offering DSD models to ART patients soon after ART initiation may help address high attrition during the early treatment period.

TRIAL REGISTERATION NUMBER

NCT04158882.

The Estimation of Transmitted Drug Resistance Mutation Strains Probability in the Treatment of HIV Using the Beta-Binomial Model

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a viral infection that destroys the human immune system resulting in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The Zambia HIV prevalence rate (11.3%) remains among the highest in the sub-Saharan Africa. In the treatment of HIV-naive patients, a problem that relates to the transmitted drug resistance mutation strains (TDRMs) occurs in the administration of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs. To address this problem, we propose the use of transition probabilities when prescribing a switch from the first-line to the second-line or to the third-line regimen on the ARV drugs combination. We formulate a statistical technique to determine an optimal ARV drugs combination. To compute a transition probability matrix chart on ARV drugs combinations of the first-line and second-line regimens, we apply a beta-binomial hierarchical model on HIV data. The transition probability matrices corresponding to the ARV drugs combinations TDF+ETC+NVP, TDF+FTC+EFV, AZT+3TC+NVP, AZT+3TC+EFV, D4T+3TC+NVP, and D4T+3TC+EFV provide an upper triangular matrix of probabilities. We observe a higher probability of remaining in the same regimen state than moving to another state. A transition probability chart provides information on the most effective combination to prescribe to a patient in the presence of transmitted drug resistance mutation (TDRM) test results. The transmission probabilities play a major role in aiding the physicians make an informed decision to prescribe an optimal ARV drugs combination. We suggest a TDRM test to be carried out to all newly diagnosed HIV individuals before prescribing any of the ARV drugs combination.

Loss to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy clinics: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies in South Africa from 2011 to 2015

Background

South Africa has the largest antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in the world. To optimise programme outcomes, it is critical that patients are retained in care and that retention is accurately measured.

Objectives

To identify all studies published in South Africa from 2011 to 2015 that used loss to follow-up (LTFU) as an indicator or outcome to describe the variation in definitions and to estimate the proportion of patients lost to care across studies.

Method

All studies published between 01 January 2011 and October 2015 that included loss to follow-up or default from ART care in a South African cohort were included by use of a broad search strategy across multiple databases. To be included, the cohort had to include any patient ART data, including follow-up time, from 01 January 2010. Two authors, working independently, extracted data and assessed risk of bias from all manuscripts. Meta-analysis was performed for studies stratified by the same loss to follow-up definition.

Results

Forty-eight adult, 15 paediatric and 4 pregnant cohorts were included. Median cohort size was 3737; follow-up time ranged from 9 weeks to 5 years. Meta-analysis did not reveal an important difference in LTFU estimates in adult cohorts at 1 year between loss to follow-up defined as 3 months (11.0%, n = 4; 95% CI 10.7% – 11.2%) compared with 6 months (12.0%, n = 4; 95% CI 11.8% – 12.2%). Only two cohorts reported reliable LTFU estimates at 5 years: this was 25.1% (95% CI 24.8% – 25.4%).

Conclusion

South Africa should standardise a LTFU definition. This would aid in monitoring and evaluation of ART programmes, with the broader goal of improving patient outcomes.

Dual therapy with lopinavir/ritonavir plus lamivudine could be a viable alternative for antiretroviral-therapy-naive adults with HIV-1 infection regardless of HIV viral load or subgenotype in resource-limited settings: A randomised, open-label and non-inferiority study from China

Backgrounds

This randomised controlled, open-label, non-inferiority trial was conducted in antiretroviral-naïve HIV-1-infected patients to assess the efficacy and safety of 48-week dual therapy of LPV/r plus 3TC (DT group) compared with Chinese first-line triple-therapy regimen (TT group).

Methods

198 were randomised to DT (n = 100) or TT (n = 98).

Results

Ninety-two DT patients (92%) and 88 TT patients (89.8%) achieved HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/ml at week 48 (P = 0.629). Moreover, the safety profile was similar between two groups, and no secondary HIV resistance was observed.

Conclusion

The results suggest that dual therapy of LPV/r plus 3TC is non-inferior to the first-line triple-therapy regimen in China.

Second-line HIV treatment failure in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Increased second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) failure rate narrows future options for HIV/AIDS treatment. It has critical implications in resource-limited settings; including sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where the burden of HIV-infection is immense. Hence, pooled estimate for second-line HIV treatment failure is relevant to suggest valid recommendations that optimize ART outcomes in SSA.

METHODS

We retrieved literature systematically from PUBMED/MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Google Scholar, and AJOL. The retrieved studies were screened and assessed for eligibility. We also assessed the eligible studies for their methodological quality using the Joanna Briggs Institute's appraisal checklist. The pooled estimates for second-line HIV treatment failure and its associated factors were determined using STATA, version 15.0 and MEDCALC, version 18.11.3, respectively. We assessed publication bias using Comprehensive Meta-analysis software, version 3. Detailed study protocol for this review/meta-analysis is registered and found on PROSPERO (ID: CRD42018118959).

RESULTS

A total of 33 studies with the overall 18,550 participants and 19,988.45 person-years (PYs) of follow-up were included in the review. The pooled second-line HIV treatment failure rate was 15.0 per 100 PYs (95% CI: 13.0-18.0). It was slightly higher at 12-18 months of follow-up (19.0/100 PYs; 95% CI: 15.0-22.0), in children (19.0/100 PYs; 95% CI: 14.0-23.0) and in southern SSA (18.0/100 PYs; 95% CI: 14.0-23.0). Baseline values (high viral load (OR: 5.67; 95% CI: 13.40-9.45); advanced clinical stage (OR: 3.27; 95% CI: 2.07-5.19); and low CD4 counts (OR: 2.80; 95% CI: 1.83-4.29)) and suboptimal adherence to therapy (OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.28-2.86) were the factors associated with increased failure rates.

CONCLUSION

Second-line HIV treatment failure has become highly prevalent in SSA with alarming rates during the 12-18 month period of treatment start; in children; and southern SSA. Therefore, the second-line HIV treatment approach in SSA should critically consider excellent adherence to therapy, aggressive viral load suppression, and rapid immune recovery.

Effectiveness of Protease Inhibitor/Nucleos(t)ide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor-Based Second-line Antiretroviral Therapy for the Treatment of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infection in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, 25.5 million people are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), representing 70% of the global total. The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) is projected to increase in the next decade in keeping with the expansion of treatment provision. Outcome data are required to inform policy.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting the virological outcomes of protease inhibitor (PI)-based second-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa. The primary outcome was virological suppression (HIV-1 RNA <400 copies/mL) after 48 and 96 weeks of treatment. The secondary outcome was the proportion of patients with PI resistance. Pooled aggregate data were analyzed using a DerSimonian-Laird random effects model.

Results

By intention-to-treat analysis, virological suppression occurred in 69.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58.2%-79.3%) of patients at week 48 (4558 participants, 14 studies), and in 61.5% (95% CI, 47.2%-74.9%) at week 96 (2145 participants, 8 studies). Preexisting resistance to nucleos(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) increased the likelihood of virological suppression. Major protease resistance mutations occurred in a median of 17% (interquartile range, 0-25%) of the virological failure population and increased with duration of second-line ART.

Conclusions

One-third of patients receiving PI-based second-line ART with continued NRTI use in sub-Saharan Africa did not achieve virological suppression, although among viremic patients, protease resistance was infrequent. Significant challenges remain in implementation of viral load monitoring. Optimizing definitions and strategies for management of second-line ART failure is a research priority.

Prospero Registration

CRD42016048985.

Predictors of treatment failure on second-line antiretroviral therapy among adults in northwest Ethiopia: a multicentre retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

The number of patients using second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased over time. In Ethiopia, 1.5% of HIV infected patients on ART are using a second-line regimen and little is known about its effect in this setting.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the rate and predictors of treatment failure on second-line ART among adults living with HIV in northwest Ethiopia.

SETTING

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted at three tertiary hospitals in northwest Ethiopia from March to May 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

356 adult patients participated and 198 (55.6%) were males. Individuals who were on second-line ART for at least 6 months of treatment were included and the data were collected by reviewing their records.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome was treatment failure defined as immunological failure, clinical failure, death, or lost to follow-up. To assess our outcome, we used the definitions of the WHO 2010 guideline.

RESULT

The mean±SD age of participants at switch was 36±8.9 years. The incidence rate of failure was 61.7/1000 person years. The probability of failure at the end of 12 and 24 months were 5.6% and 13.6%, respectively. Out of 67 total failures, 42 (62.7%) occurred in the first 2 years. The significant predictors of failure were found to be: WHO clinical stage IV at switch (adjusted HR (AHR) 2.1, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.1); CD4 count <100 cells/mm³ at switch (AHR 2.0, 95% CI 1.2 to 3.5); and weight change (AHR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of treatment failure was highest during the first 2 years of treatment. WHO clinical stage, CD4 count at switch, and change in weight were found to be predictors of treatment failure.

Efficacy of second-line antiretroviral therapy among people living with HIV/AIDS in Asia: results from the TREAT Asia HIV observational database

BACKGROUND

Roughly 4% of the 1.25 million patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Asia are using second-line therapy. To maximize patient benefit and regional resources, it is important to optimize the timing of second-line ART initiation and use the most effective compounds available.

METHODS

HIV-positive patients enrolled in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database who had used second-line ART for ≥6 months were included. ART use and rates and predictors of second-line treatment failure were evaluated.

RESULTS

There were 302 eligible patients. Most were male (76.5%) and exposed to HIV via heterosexual contact (71.5%). Median age at second-line initiation was 39.2 years, median CD4 cell count was 146 cells per cubic millimeter, and median HIV viral load was 16,224 copies per milliliter. Patients started second-line ART before 2007 (n = 105), 2007-2010 (n = 147) and after 2010 (n = 50). Ritonavir-boosted lopinavir and atazanavir accounted for the majority of protease inhibitor use after 2006. Median follow-up time on second-line therapy was 2.3 years. The rates of treatment failure and mortality per 100 patient/years were 8.8 (95% confidence interval: 7.1 to 10.9) and 1.1 (95% confidence interval: 0.6 to 1.9), respectively. Older age, high baseline viral load, and use of a protease inhibitor other than lopinavir or atazanavir were associated with a significantly shorter time to second-line failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased access to viral load monitoring to facilitate early detection of first-line ART failure and subsequent treatment switch is important for maximizing the durability of second-line therapy in Asia. Although second-line ART is highly effective in the region, the reported rate of failure emphasizes the need for third-line ART in a small portion of patients.

Tenofovir or zidovudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy after stavudine failure in southern Africa

BACKGROUND

There is debate over using tenofovir or zidovudine alongside lamivudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) following stavudine failure. We analysed outcomes in cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe

METHODS

Patients aged ≥16 years who switched from a first-line regimen including stavudine to a ritonavir-boosted lopinavir-based second-line regimen with lamivudine or emtricitabine and zidovudine or tenofovir in seven ART programmes in southern Africa were included. We estimated the causal effect of receiving tenofovir or zidovudine on mortality and virological failure using Cox proportional hazards marginal structural models. Its parameters were estimated using inverse probability of treatment weights. Baseline characteristics were age, sex, calendar year and country. CD4(+) T-cell count, creatinine and haemoglobin levels were included as time-dependent confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 1,256 patients on second-line ART, including 958 on tenofovir, were analysed. Patients on tenofovir were more likely to have switched to second-line ART in recent years, spent more time on first-line ART (33 versus 24 months) and had lower CD4(+) T-cell counts (172 versus 341 cells/μl) at initiation of second-line ART. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing tenofovir with zidovudine was 1.00 (95% CI 0.59, 1.68) for virological failure and 1.40 (0.57, 3.41) for death.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find any difference in treatment outcomes between patients on tenofovir or zidovudine; however, the precision of our estimates was limited. There is an urgent need for randomized trials to inform second-line ART strategies in resource-limited settings.