Is Adjuvant Therapy a Better Option for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Treated With Esophagectomy? A Prognosis Prediction Model Based on Multicenter Real-World Data

Comparison of long-term survival of neoadjuvant therapy plus surgery versus upfront surgery and the role of adjuvant therapy for T1b-2N0-1 esophageal cancer: a population study of the SEER database and Chinese cohort

BACKGROUND

For stage T1b-2N0-1 esophageal cancer, the impact of neoadjuvant therapy plus surgery (NS), surgery alone (SA), and surgery plus adjuvant therapy (ST) on cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) is uncertain.

METHODS

Stage T1b-2N0-1 esophageal cancer patients from the SEER database and two Chinese cancer centers were included in this study. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves, which were compared using the log-rank test. Propensity score matching was used to equalize differences between the groups. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze prognostic factors. A nomogram for OS was developed after screening the variables using the Cox proportional hazards regression model and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by the Harrell concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

After propensity score matching analysis, the 3-year CSS and OS rates in the NS group compared to the SA group were 80.3% versus 62.1% ( P =0.016) and 75.8% versus 55.5% ( P =0.006), the 3-year CSS and OS rates in the NS group compared to the ST group were 71.3% versus 68.3% ( P =0.560) and 69.8% versus 62.9% ( P =0.330), the 3-year CSS and OS rates in the SA group compared to the ST group were 54.6% versus 66.7% ( P =0.220) and 50.2% versus 57.9% ( P =0.290), respectively. The predictive nomogram for OS in T1b-2N0-1 patients ultimately incorporated five clinicopathological variables: T stage, N stage, age, examined lymph nodes, and therapy modality. The nomogram C-index for predicting OS was 0.648, 0.663, and 0.666 in the training group, external validation group-1, and external validation group-2, respectively. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year predicted AUC values of the OS prediction model were 0.659, 0.639, and 0.612 for the training group, and 0.786, 0.758, and 0.692 for validation group-1, and 0.805, 0.760, and 0.693 for validation group-2, respectively.

CONCLUSION

For patients with stage T1b-2N0-1 esophageal cancer, neoadjuvant therapy significantly improves prognosis compared to surgery alone, those presenting with positive lymph nodes after upfront surgery can achieve survival benefits from adjuvant therapy.

Community prevention and standardized clinical treatment jointly improve cancer outcome: Real-world evidence from an esophageal cancer patient cohort study

Extensive efforts have been put into reducing the heavy burden of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in China. However, the joint impact of prevention and treatment on the long-term overall survival (OS) of ESCC patients remains largely unknown. We consecutively recruited 13,255 ESCC patients from two Chinese centers: the Northern center, located in a high-risk area with abundant screening programs; and the Southern center, situated in a non-high-risk area with improved clinical practices. Inter-center comparison, longitudinal intra-center comparison, and a simulation analysis were conducted to investigate the influence of tumor downstaging and high-quality clinical treatment on OS. During a follow-up period of 12.52 years, the Northern center exhibited higher median survival than the Southern center (6.22 vs. 3.15 years; HRadjusted = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.69-0.77). Mediation analysis demonstrated that its OS advantage was largely (77.7%) attributed to earlier TNM stage (stage 0-II: 51.3% vs. 24.6%). In temporal analyses, patient survival in the Southern center gradually improved (median survival during 2015-2018 vs. 2009-2014: 3.58 vs. 2.93 years; HRadjusted = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.79-0.94), coinciding with the progress of treatment-related indices (completeness of TNM staging in discharge diagnosis [from 53.7% to 99.6%], adoption of minimally invasive esophagectomy [from 0.0% to 51.1%] and right thoracic esophagectomy [from 12.4% to 86.4%], etc.). Simulation analysis further demonstrated that integrating both downstaging and high-quality treatment would lead to the best survival. Tumor downstaging and high-quality clinical treatment have a joint impact on ESCC patient survival. Establishing a comprehensive strategy that integrates cancer prevention with optimal clinical treatment is crucial for alleviating the ESCC burden.

Survival risk stratification based on prognosis nomogram to identify patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who may benefit from postoperative adjuvant therapy

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of the study is to develop a prognosis nomogram for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients with radical resection and to identify patients who may benefit from postoperative adjuvant radiotherapy/chemoradiotherapy through survival risk stratification.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled patients who underwent esophagectomy in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from July 2015 to June 2017. Patients with stage I-III esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who received radical R0 resection with or without postoperative adjuvant radiotherapy/chemoradiotherapy were included. Further, patients were randomly allocated into two groups (training and validation cohorts) with a distribution ratio of 7:3. The prognosis nomogram was constructed based on independent factors determined by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curve were adopted to evaluate the discriminative ability and reliability of the nomogram. The accuracy and clinical practicability were respectively assessed by C-index values and decision curve analysis (DCA), and further contrasted the nomogram model and the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system. In addition, survival risk stratification was further performed according to the nomogram, and the effect of postoperative adjuvant therapy on each risk group was appraised by the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 399 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were recruited in this study, including the training cohort (n = 280) and the validation cohort (n = 119). The nomogram-related AUC values ​​for 1, 3, and 5-year OS were 0.900, 0.795, and 0.802, respectively, and 0.800, 0.865, 0.829 in the validation cohort, respectively. The slope of the calibration curve for both cohorts was close to 1, indicating good consistency. The C-index value of the nomogram was 0.769, which was higher than that of the AJCC 8th TNM staging system by 0.061 (p < 0.001). Based on the prognosis nomogram, patients were stratified into three risk groups (low, medium, and high), and there were obvious differences in prognosis among the groups (p < 0.001). Furthermore, postoperative adjuvant therapy has been shown to enhance the 5-year survival rate by over 15% among patients classified as medium- and high-risk.

CONCLUSION

The constructed nomogram as developed resulted in accurate and effective prediction performance in survival outcomes for patients with stage I-III esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent radical R0 resection, which is superior to the AJCC 8th TNM staging system. The survival risk stratification had potential clinical application to guide further personalized adjuvant therapy.

Development of a prediction model for suicidal ideation in patients with advanced cancer: A multicenter, real-world, pan-cancer study in China

BACKGROUND

Patients diagnosed with advanced stage cancer face an elevated risk of suicide. We aimed to develop a suicidal ideation (SI) risk prediction model in patients with advanced cancer for early warning of their SI and facilitate suicide prevention in this population.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We consecutively enrolled patients with multiple types of advanced cancers from 10 cancer institutes in China from August 2019 to December 2020. Demographic characteristics, clinicopathological data, and clinical treatment history were extracted from medical records. Symptom burden, psychological status, and SI were assessed using the MD Anderson Symptom Inventory (MDASI), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), respectively. A multivariable logistic regression model was employed to establish the model structure.

RESULTS

In total, 2814 participants were included in the final analysis. Nine predictors including age, sex, number of household members, history of previous chemotherapy, history of previous surgery, MDASI score, HADS-A score, HADS-D score, and life satisfaction were retained in the final SI prediction model. The model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (95% confidential interval: 0.82-0.87), with AUCs ranging from 0.75 to 0.95 across 10 hospitals and higher than 0.83 for all cancer types.

CONCLUSION

This study built an easy-to-use, good-performance predictive model for SI. Implementation of this model could facilitate the incorporation of psychosocial support for suicide prevention into the standard care of patients with advanced cancer.

Tenascin-C as a potential biomarker and therapeutic target for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

PURPOSE

To establish a prognostic model of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients based on tenascin-C (TNC) expression level and clinicopathological characteristics, and to explore the therapeutic potential of TNC inhibition.

METHODS

The expression of TNC was detected using immunohistochemistry (IHC) in 326 ESCC specimens and 50 normal esophageal tissues. Prognostic factors were determined by Cox regression analyses and were incorporated to establish the nomogram. The effects of TNC knockdown on ESCC cells were assessed in vitro and in vivo. Transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq) and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) were performed to reveal signaling pathways regulated by TNC knockdown. The therapeutic significance of TNC knockdown combined with small-molecule inhibitors on cell proliferation was examined.

RESULTS

TNC protein was highly expressed in 48.77 % of ESCC tissues compared to only 2 % in normal esophageal epithelia (p < 0.001). The established nomogram model, based on TNC expression, pT stage, and lymph node metastasis, showed good performance on prognosis evaluation. More importantly, the reduction of TNC expression inhibited tumor cell proliferation and xenograft growth, and mainly down-regulated signaling pathways involved in tumor growth, hypoxia signaling transduction, metabolism, infection, etc. Knockdown of TNC enhanced the inhibitory effect of inhibitors targeting ErbB, PI3K-Akt, Ras and MAPK signaling pathways.

CONCLUSION

The established nomogram may be a promising model for survival prediction in ESCC. Reducing TNC expression enhanced the sensitivity of ESCC cells to inhibitors of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) and downstream signaling pathways, providing a novel combination therapy strategy.

Surgical quality determines the long-term survival superiority of right over left thoracic esophagectomy for localized esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients: a real-world multicenter study

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to compare the long-term overall survival (OS) of right versus left thoracic esophagectomy, and to evaluate whether surgical quality impacts comparison result.

BACKGROUND

Controversy regarding the optimal thoracic esophagectomy approach persists for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). No study has assessed the effect of surgical quality in comparison between right and left approaches.

METHODS

The authors consecutively recruited 5556 operable ESCC patients from two high-volume centers in China, of whom 2220 and 3336 received right and left thoracic esophagectomy, respectively. Cumulative sum was used to evaluate the learning curve for operation time of right approach, as the indicator of surgical proficiency.

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 83.1 months, right approach, harvesting more lymph nodes, tended to have a better OS than left approach (Mean: 23.8 vs. 16.7 nodes; adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=0.93, 95% CI: 0.85-1.02). Subset analysis by the extent of lymphadenectomy demonstrated that right approach with adequate lymphadenectomy (≥15 nodes) resulted in statistically significant OS benefit compared with left approach (adjusted HR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.77-0.95), but not with limited lymphadenectomy. Subset analysis by surgical proficiency showed that proficient right approach conferred a better OS than left approach (adjusted HR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.64-0.88), but improficient right approach did not have such survival advantage.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical quality plays a crucial role in survival comparison between surgical procedures. Right thoracic esophagectomy performed with adequate lymphadenectomy and surgical proficiency, conferring more favorable survival than left approach, should be recommended as the preferred surgical procedure for localized ESCC.

An optimized postsurgery follow-up strategy for patients with esophageal cancer: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

After radical surgery, patients with esophageal cancer should undergo long-term surveillance of disease relapse. However, the optimal follow-up strategy remains to be explored.

METHOD

A total of 4688 patients were recruited. Recursive partition analysis was applied to develop recurrence risk stratification for patients. The follow-up strategies of each stratification were developed based on monthly recurrence probability and validated by bootstrap validation and an external dataset. A Markov decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the follow-up strategies.

RESULTS

Patients were stratified into four groups according to four pathological features. The authors applied a random survival forest to calculate the monthly recurrence probability of each group. Based on the temporal distribution of recurrences, the authors further established surveillance strategies for four groups. The strategies were validated as optimal protocols by bootstrap resampling and another dataset. Markov cost-effective analysis indicated that our recommended strategies outperformed the mainstream protocols from guidelines. Using less than 12 visits across the first 5 years on average, our follow-up strategies were more efficient than the NCCN recommended strategies (14 visits average). Our results also supported the computerized tomography from the neck to the upper abdomen as a routine examination and PETCT of distant metastasis for some groups with high risks.

CONCLUSION

Our study provided data-driven evidence of personalized and economic follow-up strategies for esophageal cancer patients and shed light on follow-up optimization for other cancer types.

Lugol-unstained lesions location in the esophagus affects the detection rate of malignancy: a population-based study

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of Lugol-unstained lesion (LUL) location on the detection yield, which may help the endoscopist select targets for biopsy.

METHODS

We enrolled 1064 subjects who had LULs at the baseline screening of a population-based randomized controlled trial. There were 1166 LULs with recorded location and pathologic diagnosis, and these were used for analysis. The detection rate of severe dysplasia and above (SDA) was calculated as the number of LULs identified as SDA divided by the number of LULs biopsied. Logistic regression with a generalized estimating equation was applied to evaluate the association between the location of a given LUL and the risk of the LUL being SDA.

RESULTS

The detection rate of SDA for LULs located in the lower, middle, and upper esophagus increased from 5.9% and 10.9% to 16.7%. LUL location was significantly associated with having SDA (adjusted odds ratio (OR)upper vs. lower  = 2.88, 95% confidential interval (CI) = 1.48-5.60; adjusted ORmiddle vs. lower  = 1.63, 95% CI = 0.96-2.76), and the association was stronger in subgroups with a family history of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) (adjusted ORupper vs. lower  = 9.72, 95% CI = 2.57-36.69; adjusted ORmiddle vs. lower  = 3.76, 95% CI = 0.93-15.21).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that more attention should be paid by endoscopists to LULs in the upper and middle esophagus, particularly for individuals with a family history of ESCC.

Postoperative serum squamous cell carcinoma antigen and carcinoembryonic antigen predict overall survival in surgical patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Tumor markers are routinely used in clinical practice. However, for resectable patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), they are applied infrequently as their prognostic significance is incompletely understood.

Methods

This historical cohort study included 2769 patients with resected ESCC from 2011 to 2018 in a high-risk area in northern China. Their clinical data were extracted from the Electronic Medical Record. Survival analysis of eight common tumor markers was performed with multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions.

Results

With a median follow-up of 39.5 months, 901 deaths occurred. Among the eight target markers, elevated postoperative serum SCC (Squamous cell carcinoma antigen) and CEA (Carcinoembryonic antigen) predicted poor overall survival (SCC HRadjusted: 2.67, 95% CI: 1.70-4.17; CEA HRadjusted: 2.36, 95% CI: 1.14-4.86). In contrast, preoperative levels were not significantly associated with survival. Stratified analysis also demonstrated poorer survival in seropositive groups of postoperative SCC and CEA within each TNM stage. The above associations were generally robust using different quantiles of concentrations above the upper limit of the clinical normal range as alternative cutoffs. Regarding temporal trends of serum levels, SCC and CEA were similar. Their concentrations fell rapidly after surgery and thereafter remained relatively stable.

Conclusion

Postoperative serum SCC and CEA levels predict the overall survival of ESCC surgical patients. More importance should be attached to the use of these markers in clinical applications.

Efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy on overall survival in patients with lymph node-positive esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: Is oral chemotherapy promising?

BACKGROUND

The role of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with pathological lymph node-positive (pN+) resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains unclear. We aimed to explore whether adjuvant chemotherapy could improve the overall survival (OS) of patients with pN+ ESCC and whether oral chemotherapy could be used as an alternative to intravenous chemotherapy.

METHODS

The patients were divided into two groups: a surgery plus chemotherapy group (S + CT group, 400 patients) and a surgery alone group (S group, 582 patients). Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to create patient groups that were balanced across several covariates (n = 331 in each group). The survival rates of patients receiving oral chemotherapy (69 patients with S-1 and 68 patients with tegafur tablets) and intravenous chemotherapy (263 patients) were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

In the overall study cohort, the 3-year OS was significantly higher in the S + CT group than in the S group (66.3% vs. 49.9%, p < 0.001). These data were confirmed in the matched groups (3-year OS, 72.9% vs. 62.0%, p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in the matched samples showed that adjuvant chemotherapy was an independent prognostic factor for ESCC (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.50-0.76, p < 0.001). Patients who received oral chemotherapy had a similar OS as patients who received intravenous chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Adjuvant chemotherapy could significantly improve the OS of patients with pN+ ESCC, and oral chemotherapy drugs might be a better option because of their similar efficacy but fewer side effects than intravenous chemotherapy. This conclusion warrants further study in prospective, randomized controlled trials.

Combined Mean Corpuscular Hemoglobin, Fibrinogen, and Albumin (MF-A) Is a Novel Prognostic Marker in Patients with Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The aim was to systematically select blood markers routinely tested in clinical settings, which are independently associated with overall survival (OS) and are able to stratify prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients undergoing esophagectomy.

METHODS

We selected optimal blood markers for prognostic stratification from 60 candidates in a clinical cohort of 1819 consecutive patients with resectable ESCC in China. Selection was carried out using two-step multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for multifaceted confounders. A composite index was developed by multiplying risk factors and dividing them by protective factors.

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 48.07 months, 641 deaths occurred in the 1819 patients and the 5-year OS was 56.30%. Two risk factors (mean corpuscular hemoglobin, fibrinogen) and a protective factor (albumin), all dichotomized and assigned values 1 and 2, were used to construct the composite index marker "MF-A". Three risk groups were created based on the MF-A score including low- (0.5), moderate- (1), and high-risk groups (2 and 4). Compared with patients in the low-risk group (1184/1778, 66.59%), those in the moderate- (488, 27.45%), and high-risk (106, 5.96%) groups were at elevated risk of death (adjusted HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.11-1.57; adjusted HR: 2.08, 95% CI: 1.56-2.75; P_trend < 10^-7). Within each TNM stage grouping, OS also trended to be significantly worse as the MF-A score increased.

CONCLUSIONS

"MF-A" is a novel independent predictor which may be used to estimate and stratify prognosis for ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy.

Pan-immune-inflammation Value and Prognosis in Patients With Esophageal Cancer

Mini-abstract

The pan-immune-inflammation value was associated with clinical outcomes and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in 866 esophageal cancers. Systemic immune competence may influence patient prognosis through local immune response.

Objective

To examine the relationship between the pan-immune-inflammation value (PIV), tumor immunity, and clinical outcomes in 866 patients with esophageal cancer.

Background

The PIV, calculated from all immune-inflammatory cells in the peripheral blood count, is a recently proposed marker for clinical outcomes in some types of cancers. Nonetheless, the prognostic significance of PIV in esophageal cancer remains unclear.

Methods

In the derivation cohort (n = 433), we set the optimal cutoff value using a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. In the validation cohort (n = 433), the relationships between the PIV, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), CD8 expression by immunohistochemical staining, and patient prognosis were examined.

Results

The area under the ROC curve for the PIV at 5 years was 0.631 in the derivation cohort. The validation cohort, divided into PIV-low cases (n = 223) and PIV-high cases (n = 210), showed significantly worse overall survival (log-rank P = 0.0065; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.98; P < 0.001; multivariate HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.05-1.90; P = 0.023). The prognostic effect of the PIV was not significantly modified by any clinical characteristics (P for interaction > 0.05). The PIV-high cases were significantly associated with a low TIL status (P < 0.001) and low CD8-positive cell counts (P = 0.011).

Conclusions

The PIV was associated with clinical outcomes in esophageal cancer, supporting its role as a prognostic biomarker. Considering the relationship between the PIV and TILs, systemic immune competence may influence patient prognosis through a local immune response.