A Clinical Nomogram Predicting Pathologic Lymph Node Involvement in Esophageal Cancer Patients

Stratification of lymph node metastasis improves diagnostic efficiency in thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Difference of the short diameter of lymph nodes in the main regions of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and its value in the diagnosis of lymph nodes need to explore.

METHODS

The clinical data of patients with thoracic ESCC who underwent surgical treatment in our hospital were collected. The short diameters of the largest lymph node in each region of the patient were measured by preoperative enhanced computed tomography (CT) and were compared with the postoperative pathology.

RESULTS

A total of 477 patients with thoracic ESCC who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy were enrolled in this study. The receiver operating characteristic curve suggested that the short diameters of the paracardial nodes, the left gastric nodes, the right recurrent laryngeal nerve nodes, and the left recurrent laryngeal nerve nodes could well predict the postoperative pathology of the lymph nodes, with area under curve (AUC) of 0.958, 0.937, 0.931, and 0.915, the corresponding cut-off values of 5.7 mm, 5.7 mm, 5.5 mm, and 4.8 mm, the corresponding sensitivities of 94.7%, 85.4%, 88.7%, and 79.4%, and the corresponding specificities of 93.7%, 96.3%, 86.2%, and 95.0%, respectively. The AUC of the thoracic paraesophageal lymph nodes, the subcarinal nodes and all regional lymph nodes were 0.845, 0.688, and 0.776, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Region-based criterion for lymph node metastasis of thoracic ESCC is beneficial to improve the diagnostic efficiency of preoperative CT.

Comprehensive analysis of ZNF family genes in prognosis, immunity, and treatment of esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

As a common malignant tumor, esophageal carcinoma (ESCA) has a low early diagnosis rate and poor prognosis. This study aimed to construct the prognostic features composed of ZNF family genes to effectively predict the prognosis of ESCA patients.

METHODS

The mRNA expression matrix and clinical data were downloaded from TCGA and GEO database. Using univariate Cox analysis, lasso regression and multivariate Cox analysis, we screened six prognosis-related ZNF family genes to construct the prognostic model. We then used Kaplan-Meier plot, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), multivariable Cox regression analysis of clinical information, and nomogram to evaluate the prognostic value within and across sets, separately and combined. We also validated the prognostic value of the six-gene signature using GSE53624 dataset. The different immune status was observed in the single sample Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (ssGSEA). Finally, real-time quantitative PCR was used to detect the expression of six prognostic ZNF genes in twelve pairs of ESCA and adjacent normal tissues.

RESULTS

A six prognosis-related ZNF family genes model consisted of ZNF91, ZNF586, ZNF502, ZNF865, ZNF106 and ZNF225 was identified. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that six prognosis-related ZNF family genes were independent prognostic factors for overall survival of ESCA patients in TCGA and GSE53624. Further, a prognostic nomogram including the riskScore, age, gender, T, stage was constructed, and TCGA/GSE53624-based calibration plots indicated its excellent predictive performance. Drug Sensitivity and ssGSEA analysis showed that the six genes model was closely related to immune cells infiltration and could be used as a potential predictor of chemotherapy sensitivity.

CONCLUSION

We identified six prognosis-related ZNF family genes model of ESCA, which provide evidence for individualized prevention and treatment.

An artificial neural network model predicting pathologic nodal metastases in clinical stage I-II esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients

Background

Current preoperative staging for lymph nodal status remains inaccurate. The purpose of this study was to build an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict pathologic nodal involvement in clinical stage I–II esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients and then validated the performance of the model.

Methods

A total of 523 patients (training set: 350; test set: 173) with clinical staging I–II ESCC who underwent esophagectomy and reconstruction were enrolled in this study. Their post-surgical pathological results were assessed and analysed. An ANN model was established for predicting pathologic nodal positive patients in the training set, which was validated in the test set. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was also created to illustrate the performance of the predictive model.

Results

Of the enrolled 523 patients with ESCC, 41.3% of the patients were confirmed pathologic nodal positive (216/523). The ANN staging system identified the tumour invasion depth, tumour length, dysphagia, tumour differentiation and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) as predictors for pathologic lymph node metastases. The C-index for the ANN model verified in the test set was 0.852, which demonstrated that the ANN model had a good predictive performance.

Conclusions

The ANN model presented good performance for predicting pathologic lymph node metastasis and added indicators not included in current staging criteria and might help improve the staging strategies.

Prognostic model of patients with liver cancer based on tumor stem cell content and immune process

Globally, liver hepatocellular carcinoma (LIHC) has a high mortality and recurrence rate, leading to poor prognosis. The recurrence of LIHC is closely related to two aspects: degree of immune infiltration and content of tumor stem cells. Hence, this study aimed to used RNA-seq and clinical data of LIHC from The Cancer Genome Atlas, Estimation of Stromal and Immune cells in Malignant Tumours, mRNA stemness index score, and weighted gene correlation network analysis methods to find genes significantly linked to the aforementioned two aspects. Key genes and clinical factors were used as input. Lasso regression and multivariate Cox regression were conducted to build an effective prognostic model for patients with liver cancer. Finally, four key genes (KLHL30, PLN, LYVE1, and TIMD4) and four clinical factors (Asian, age, grade, and bilirubin) were included in the prognostic model, namely Immunity and Cancer-stem-cell Related Prognosis (ICRP) score. The ICRP score achieved a great performance in test set. The area under the curve value of the ICRP score in test set for 1, 3, and 5 years was 0.708, 0.723, and 0.765, respectively, which was better than that of other prognostic prediction methods for LIHC. The C-index evaluation method also reached the same conclusion.

Clinical evaluation of right recurrent laryngeal nerve nodes in thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

The accuracy of clinical N staging of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is suboptimal. As an important station of lymph node metastasis, station C201 (right recurrent laryngeal nerve nodes) has rarely been evaluated alone. We aimed to explore an effective way to evaluate the right recurrent laryngeal nerve nodes in thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 628 thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients who underwent radical resection without neoadjuvant therapy from two Chinese cancer centers. The diameter of the short axis of the largest right recurrent laryngeal nerve node (DC201) was measured on contrast-enhanced multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT). Right recurrent laryngeal nerve nodes were examined by postoperative pathologic results. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated to assess the diagnostic capabilities of DC201 to determine the right recurrent laryngeal nerve nodes status.

Results

ROC curve analysis revealed that the optimal cut-off point of DC201 was 6 mm, with an area under curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index of 0.896, 71.9%, 88.8%, and 0.607 respectively. When the cut-off point of DC201 was set to 10 mm, sensitivity, specificity and the Youden index were 14.1%, 99.6% and 0.137 respectively. Among 128 patients with right recurrent laryngeal nerve node metastasis, 71 and 108 patients had the largest right recurrent laryngeal nerve node located above the suprasternal notch level and in the tracheoesophageal groove respectively.

Conclusions

When DC201 ≥6.0 mm instead of DC201 ≥10 mm was used to dictate the right recurrent laryngeal nerve nodes metastasis, contrast-enhanced MSCT could evaluate the status of right recurrent laryngeal nerve nodes with high sensitivity and specificity. The largest right recurrent laryngeal nerve nodes were mainly located in the tracheoesophageal groove and/or above the suprasternal notch.

Predicting lymph node metastases with endoscopic resection in cT2N0M0 oesophageal cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Despite modern imaging modalities, staging of clinically staged T2N0M0 (cT2N0M0) oesophageal cancer is suboptimal, often leading to overtreatment. Endoscopic resection – the first-line therapy for early localised tumours – could be used to improve staging and to attain predictors of nodal upstaging enabling more stage-guided treatment decisions.

Objective

A systematic literature review and a meta-analysis were conducted to assess the prevalence and the pathological risk factors of lymph node metastases in cT2N0M0 oesophageal cancer.

Methods

Databases of PUBMED, EMBASE and Cochrane were searched for literature. The primary outcome was lymph node metastases determined after primary surgical resection.

Results

Nine studies with a total of 1650 cT2N0M0 patients were included. The prevalence of lymph node metastases was 43% (95% confidence interval: 35–50%) with heterogeneity being high across studies (I² = 0.86, p < 0.001). Factors potentially attainable by endoscopic resection and having a significant association with lymph node metastases were invasion depth, differentiation grade, tumour size, depth of invasion in the muscularis propria and lymphovascular invasion.

Conclusions

Clinical lymph node staging is inaccurate in almost half of cT2N0M0 oesophageal cancer. Endoscopic resection is a promising diagnostic modality that might even be a valid alternative to surgery in selected patients without high-risk features, but further evidence is warranted.

Predictors of staging accuracy, pathologic nodal involvement, and overall survival for cT2N0 carcinoma of the esophagus

OBJECTIVE

Clinical T2N0 esophageal carcinoma is a heterogenous disease frequently complicated by inaccurate staging. Incorrect staging may lead to suboptimal treatment for patients with unidentified local-regionally advanced disease. Therapeutic options for these patients remain controversial. We sought to evaluate the outcomes of patients with cT2N0 who underwent esophagectomy as either primary therapy or after neoadjuvant treatment.

METHODS

This was a multi-institutional collaboration of 26 high-volume esophageal centers. Patients with complete staging who underwent elective resection from 2002 to 2012 were included. Three treatment groups were identified; primary esophagectomy, preoperative chemotherapy, and preoperative chemoradiation (CXRT). Pretreatment variables were explored for independent predictors of long-term outcomes. The primary esophagectomy subgroup was evaluated for stage migration.

RESULTS

In total, 767 patients were evaluated; 35% (268) had preoperative therapy (195 CXRT, 73 chemotherapy). Staging accuracy was 14% (70/499), with pT < 2 identified in 45% (222) and pN > 0 in 39% (195). Preoperative treatment modality (none, CXRT, chemotherapy) was not identified as a predictor of outcome (median survival 63, 70, 71 months, respectively, P = .956). Longitudinal tumor length >3.25 cm was predictive of pN+ for the primary esophagectomy cohort as well as adenocarcinoma histology only (odds ratio 2.2 and 2.4, respectively, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Current treatment options for patients with cT2N0M0 do not reveal a comparative survival advantage to preoperative therapy. Pretreatment tumor length can identify a subgroup of patients at risk for understaging (pN+). The incidence of overstaging suggests that organ-sparing approaches (endoscopic resection) may play a future role in appropriately selected patients.

Predictors of Nodal Metastases for Clinical T2N0 Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Induction therapy has not been proven to be beneficial for patients with clinical T2N0 esophageal adenocarcinoma. Surgery alone is associated with disappointing survival for patients found to have nodal disease on final pathologic examination. The aim of this study was to identify factors that predict pathologic nodal involvement in patients with endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-proven T2N0 esophageal adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed patients with EUS-staged T2N0 (uT2N0) esophageal adenocarcinoma treated with surgery alone. Final pathologic staging was compared with clinical staging. Demographic and clinicopathologic variables were evaluated as putative risk factors for nodal metastases. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with nodal involvement. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to compare overall and recurrence-free survival between patients with (N+) and without (N-) nodal disease.

RESULTS

We identified 80 patients with uT2N0 esophageal adenocarcinoma treated with surgery alone. Clinical staging with EUS was inaccurate for 73 patients (91%). Twenty-eight patients (35%) had pathologic N+ disease at resection. Five-year overall survival was 67% for N- patients and 41% for N+ patients (p = 0.006). Recurrence-free survival was 65% for N- patients and 32% for N+ patients (p = 0.0043). Univariable analysis identified vascular invasion and neural invasion as risk factors for nodal metastasis. Multivariable analysis identified vascular invasion as an independent predictor of pathologic nodal involvement.

CONCLUSIONS

EUS is inaccurate for staging of T2N0 esophageal adenocarcinoma and often fails to identify nodal involvement. Identification of vascular invasion on preoperative biopsy should be explored as a prognostic marker to select patients for induction therapy.

Induction therapy for locally advanced distal esophageal adenocarcinoma: Is radiation Always necessary?

OBJECTIVE

To compare outcomes between induction chemotherapy alone (ICA) and induction chemoradiation (ICR) in patients with locally advanced distal esophageal adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

Patients in the National Cancer Database treated with ICA or ICR followed by esophagectomy between 2006 and 2012 for cT1-3N1M0 or T3N0M0 adenocarcinoma of the distal esophagus were compared using logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and Cox proportional hazards methods.

RESULTS

The study group included 4763 patients, of whom 4323 patients (90.8%) received ICR and 440 patients (9.2%) received ICA. There were no differences in age, sex, race, Charlson Comorbidity Index, treatment facility type, clinical T or N status between the 2 groups. Tumor size ≥5 cm (odds ratio, 1.46; P = .006) was the only factor that predicted ICR use. Higher rates of T downstaging (39.7% vs 33.4%; P = .012), N downstaging (32.0% vs 23.4%; P < .001), and complete pathologic response (13.1% vs 5.9%; P < .001) occurred in ICR patients. Positive margins were seen more often in ICA patients (9.6% vs 5.5%; P = .001), but there was no difference in 5-year survival (ICR 35.9% vs ICA 37.2%; P = .33), and ICR was not associated with survival in multivariable analysis (hazard ratio = 1.04; P = .61).

CONCLUSIONS

ICR for locally advanced distal esophageal adenocarcinoma is associated with a better local treatment effect, but not improved survival compared with ICA, which suggests that radiation can be used selectively in this clinical situation.

Using the National Cancer Database to create a scoring system that identifies patients with early-stage esophageal cancer at risk for nodal metastases

OBJECTIVES

Endoscopic resection is gaining popularity as a treatment for early-stage esophageal adenocarcinoma, particularly for T1a tumors. The goal of this study was to create a scoring system to reflect the risk of nodal metastases in early-stage esophageal adenocarcinoma to be used after endoscopic resection to better individualize treatment.

METHODS

The National Cancer Database was queried for patients with T1a or T1b esophageal adenocarcinoma who underwent esophagectomy. We identified variables affecting nodal metastases using multivariable logistic regression, which we then used to create a scoring system. We stratified the model for T1a or T1b tumors, tested model discrimination, and validated the models by refitting in 1000 bootstrap samples. C-statistics greater than 0.7 were considered relevant.

RESULTS

We identified 1283 patients with T1a or T1b tumors; 146 had nodal metastases (11.4%). Tumor category (pT1a vs pT1b), grade, and size and the presence of angiolymphatic invasion significantly affected the risk of nodal metastases. We assigned points to each variable and added them to get a risk score. In patients with T1a tumors, less than 3% of patients with a risk score of 3 or less had nodal metastases, whereas 16.1% of patients with a risk score of 5 or greater had nodal metastases. In patients with T1b tumors, less than 5% of patients with a risk score of 2 or less had nodal metastases, whereas 41% of patients with a score of 6 or greater had nodal metastases (c-statistic = 0.805).

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed scoring system seems to be useful in discriminating risk of nodal metastases in patients with T1a or T1b esophageal adenocarcinoma and may be useful in directing patients who received endoscopic resection to esophagectomy or careful follow-up.

Novel Calculator to Estimate Overall Survival Benefit from Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation in Patients with Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Our group reported that patients with clinically node-negative esophageal adenocarcinoma do not derive overall survival (OS) benefit from neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT) compared with clinically node-positive patients. The aim of this study was to develop a calculator that could more easily identify which patients derive OS benefit from nCRT.

STUDY DESIGN

Using the National Cancer Data Base (2006 to 2012), patients with clinical status T1b to T4a, N-/+, M0 adenocarcinoma of the esophagus who underwent resection were selected. Of this cohort, 80% were randomly selected to develop and test the prediction model using Cox regression. The remaining 20% were used to internally validate the model, and performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curves.

RESULTS

A total of 8,974 patients met study criteria. Using the model testing cohort (7,179 patients), variables that were independently associated with OS in multivariable analysis were included in the model. These variables included Charlson-Deyo comorbidity score, tumor grade, clinical T and N status, and nCRT before surgery. Factors associated with increased risk of death were higher grade and higher T or N status. Receipt of nCRT was associated with improved OS. After validation, model performance showed an area under the curve of 0.630 and 0.682 for 1-year and 3-year OS, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A novel OS calculator was developed for esophageal adenocarcinoma that reasonably predicts which patients are expected to derive OS benefit from nCRT. This tool can be helpful in determining OS benefit from nCRT to assist with treatment decision making.

Relationship Between the Size of Metastatic Lymph Nodes and Positron Emission Tomographic/Computer Tomographic Findings in Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

We measured the sizes of metastatic lymph nodes and the relationships thereof by (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computer tomography (PET/CT). We identified risk factors for nodal upstaging in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

Eighty-five patients with ESCC who underwent esophagectomy with extensive mediastinal lymphadenectomy were assessed. Two radiologists blinded to pathology data reviewed PET/CT scans, evaluating both primary tumors and lymph node involvement. A pathologist examined all metastatic lymph nodes in terms of maximal diameter (LNmax), the size of the metastatic focus (Fmax), and the metastasis occupation ratio (MOR = Fmax/LNmax).

RESULTS

The maximal tumor length averaged 2.9 ± 0.2 cm and the mean SUVmax of the primary lesion 5.3 ± 0.5. On PET/CT scans, 26 (30.6 %) patients exhibited nodal metastasis and 59 (69.4 %) did not. Pathology grades of pN0, pN1, pN2, and pN3 were assigned to 45 (52.9 %), 24 (28.2 %), 13 (15.3 %), and 3 (3.5 %) patients, respectively. Nodal upstaging was evident in 29 (34.1 %) cases. In 123 metastatic nodes of 4212 nodes dissected, the LNmax was 6.60 ± 0.39 mm, the Fmax 4.47 ± 0.35 mm, and the MOR 0.68 ± 0.03. Of 123 nodes, 85 (69.1 %) were retrieved from PET-negative stations, and the LNmax and Fmax values of these nodes were 5.88 ± 0.42 and 3.75 ± 0.31 mm, respectively. Upon multivariate analysis, tumor length (OR 1.666, p = 0.019) and lymphovascular invasion (OR 41.038, p < 0.001) were risk factors for nodal upstaging.

CONCLUSION

A significant proportion of nodal metastases were too small to detect via PET/CT imaging. Therefore, meticulous lymph node dissection might be helpful in ESCC patients.

Prognostic nomogram for previously untreated patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after esophagectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to establish an effective prognostic nomogram for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical esophagectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy in those previously untreated patients.

METHODS

The clinicopathological data from 328 patients who underwent radical esophagectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy or not at the Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital between 2006 and 2010 were retrospectively studied. Nomograms which predicted survival of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were established based on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. To determine its predictive accuracy and discriminatory capacity, the concordance index and calibration curve were calculated after bootstrapping in the internal validation. An external validation of 76 patients in 2011 was prospectively studied at the same institution. To verify the performance of the nomogram, the comparison between the nomogram and Tumor-Node-Metastasis staging system was conducted.

RESULTS

The 5-year overall survival was 43.1% in the primary cohort. Based on multivariate analyses, five independent prognostic variables including gender, tumor length, T stage, N stage and chemotherapy cycles were selected to build the nomograms to predict disease-free survival and overall survival. The concordance index of the nomogram to predict overall survival was 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.79), which was superior to the predictive power of Tumor-Node-Metastasis staging system (0.64) in the primary cohort. Meanwhile, the calibration curve showed good accuracy between predictive and actual overall survival. In the validation cohort, the concordance index (0.77) and calibration plot displayed favorable performances. The other nomogram to predict disease-free survival also performed well.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic nomogram provided individualized risk estimate of survival in patients after esophagectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy.

Significance of tumor length as prognostic factor for esophageal cancer

Our study indicated the relationship between tumor length and clinicopathologic characteristics as well as long-term survival in esophageal cancer. A total of 116 patients who underwent curative surgery for thoracic esophageal cancer with standard lymphadenectomy in 2 fields between 2000 and 2010 were included in the study. The medical records of these patients were retrospectively reviewed. The patients with tumor length 3 cm had a highly significant difference in the involvement of adventitia and lymph node stations. The patients with tumor length 3 cm had significantly lower rates of involvement of the adventitia and lymph node stations. Tumor length could have a significant impact on both the overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with resected esophageal carcinomas and may provide additional prognostic value to the current tumor, node, and metastasis staging system before patients receive any cancer-specific treatment.

Prediction of occult lymph node metastasis by metabolic parameters in patients with clinically N0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

The aim of this study was to investigate the value of (18)F-FDG parameters of the primary tumor in predicting occult lymph node metastasis in patients with clinically N0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

METHODS

The study comprised 143 consecutive patients (mean age ± SD, 63.9 ± 8.6 y; range, 31.8-81.2 y) from May 2003 to January 2010 who had clinically N0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on preoperative imaging studies including chest CT, (18)F-FDG PET/CT, and endoscopic ultrasound. We measured maximum standardized uptake value (SUV max), mean SUV (SUV mean), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and metabolic tumor volume (MTV) of the primary tumor and analyzed the relationship between clinicopathologic variables including PET parameters and occult lymph node metastasis using a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis indicated that clinical T classification, SUV max, SUV mean, MTV, TLG, and longitudinal diameter of tumor were significant risk factors associated with occult lymph node metastasis. Optimal thresholds were cT2-4, SUV max ≥ 4.8, SUV mean ≥ 3.2, MTV ≥ 5.5 cm(3), TLG ≥ 220, and diameter ≥ 3.8 cm. After multivariate analysis, the logistic regression model revealed that clinical T classification (hazard ratio [HR], 4.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-12.4; P = 0.003) and SUV max (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.3-9.2; P = 0.012) were independent risk factors. The combination of SUV max and clinical T classification (HR, 13.2; 95% CI, 5.4-31.9; P < 0.001) was a significantly better powerful risk factor for occult lymph node metastasis than SUV max or clinical T classification alone. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the combination of clinical T classification and SUV max were 73.0%, 81.5%, 60.0%, and 89.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

SUV max, combined with clinical T classification, may be useful for predicting occult lymph node metastasis in patients with clinically N0 squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

Recurrence risk model for esophageal cancer after radical surgery

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to construct a risk assessment model which was tested by disease-free survival (DFS) of esophageal cancer after radical surgery.

METHODS

A total of 164 consecutive esophageal cancer patients who had undergone radical surgery between January 2005 and December 2006 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutpoint of value at risk (VaR) was inferred by stem-and-leaf plot, as well as by independent-samples t-test for recurrence-free time, further confirmed by crosstab chi-square test, univariate analysis and Cox regression analysis for DFS.

RESULTS

The cutpoint of VaR was 0.3 on the basis of our model. The rate of recurrence was 30.3% (30/99) and 52.3% (34/65) in VaR <0.3 and VaR ≥0.3 (chi-square test, (χ) (2) =7.984, P=0.005), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS of esophageal cancer after radical surgery was 70.4%, 48.7%, and 45.3%, respectively in VaR ≥0.3, whereas 91.5%, 75.8%, and 67.3%, respectively in VaR <0.3 (Log-rank test, (χ) (2) =9.59, P=0.0020), and further confirmed by Cox regression analysis [hazard ratio =2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2649-3.4751; P=0.0041].

CONCLUSIONS

The model could be applied for integrated assessment of recurrence risk after radical surgery for esophageal cancer.

Three-gene immunohistochemical panel adds to clinical staging algorithms to predict prognosis for patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is a highly aggressive disease with poor long-term survival. Despite growing knowledge of its biology, no molecular biomarkers are currently used in routine clinical practice to determine prognosis or aid clinical decision making. Hence, this study set out to identify and validate a small, clinically applicable immunohistochemistry (IHC) panel for prognostication in patients with EAC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We recently identified eight molecular prognostic biomarkers using two different genomic platforms. IHC scores of these biomarkers from a UK multicenter cohort (N = 374) were used in univariate Cox regression analysis to determine the smallest biomarker panel with the greatest prognostic power with potential therapeutic relevance. This new panel was validated in two independent cohorts of patients with EAC who had undergone curative esophagectomy from the United States and Europe (N = 666).

RESULTS

Three of the eight previously identified prognostic molecular biomarkers (epidermal growth factor receptor [EGFR], tripartite motif-containing 44 [TRIM44], and sirtuin 2 [SIRT2]) had the strongest correlation with long-term survival in patients with EAC. Applying these three biomarkers as an IHC panel to the validation cohort segregated patients into two different prognostic groups (P < .01). Adjusting for known survival covariates, including clinical staging criteria, the IHC panel remained an independent predictor, with incremental adverse overall survival (OS) for each positive biomarker (hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.40 per biomarker; P = .02).

CONCLUSION

We identified and validated a clinically applicable IHC biomarker panel, consisting of EGFR, TRIM44, and SIRT2, that is independently associated with OS and provides additional prognostic information to current survival predictors such as stage.

Tumour size of resectable oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma measured with multidetector computed tomography for predicting regional lymph node metastasis and N stage

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether and how tumour size of resectable oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) measured with multidetector CT could predict regional lymph node metastasis (LNM) and N stage.

METHODS

Two hundred five patients with ESCC underwent radical oesophagectomy with three-field lymphadenectomy less than 3 weeks after contrast-enhanced CT. Tumour size of the ESCC (tumour length, maximal thickness and gross tumour volume, GTV) was measured on CT. Statistical analyses were performed to identify whether tumour size could predict regional LNM and N stage, and to determine how to use the size of ESCC to predict N stage.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that tumour size could predict regional LNM (all P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis revealed that GTV could independently predict regional LNM (P = 0.021, odds ratio = 1.813). Mann-Whitney tests showed that tumour size could distinguish grouped N stages (all P < 0.05). GTV might be a differentiating indicator between N0 and N1-3 stages (cutoff, 14.4 cm(3)), between N0-1 and N2-3 (cutoff, 15.9 cm(3)), and between N0-2 and N3 (cutoff, 26.1 cm(3)), with sensitivity of 76%, 63% or 75%, and specificity of 75%, 61% and 81%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The GTV of ESCC measured with CT could be an indicator for predicting regional LNM and grouped N stages.

KEY POINTS

• Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) allows accurate assessment of oesophageal tumour size • For resectable squamous cell tumours, size helped predict regional lymph node involvement • Gross tumour volume may predict the N stage of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

A nomogram associated with high probability of malignant nodes in the surgical specimen after trimodality therapy of patients with oesophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

The presence of malignant lymph nodes (+ypNodes) in the surgical specimen after preoperative chemoradiation (trimodality) in patients with oesophageal cancer (EC) portends a poor prognosis for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Currently, none of the clinical variables highly correlates with +ypNodes. We hypothesised that a combination of clinical variables could generate a model that associates with high likelihood of +ypNodes after trimodality in EC patients.

METHODS

We report on 293 consecutive EC patients who received trimodality therapy. A multivariate logistic regression analysis that included pretreatment and post-chemoradiation variables identified independent variables that were used to construct a nomogram for +ypNodes after trimodality in EC patients.

RESULTS

Of 293 patients, 91 (31.1%) had +ypNodes. OS (p=0.0002) and DFS (p<0.0001) were shorter in patients with +ypNodes compared to those with -ypNodes. In multivariable analysis, the significant variables for +ypNodes were: baseline T-stage (odds ratio [OR], 7.145; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.381-36.969; p=0.019), baseline N-stage (OR, 2.246; 95% CI, 1.024-4.926; p=0.044), tumour length (OR, 1.178; 95% CI, 1.024-1.357; p=0.022), induction chemotherapy (OR, 0.471; 95% CI, 0.242-0.915; p=0.026), nodal uptake on post-chemoradiation positron emission tomography (OR, 2.923; 95% CI, 1.007-8.485; p=0.049) and enlarged node(s) on post-chemoradiation computerised tomography (OR, 3.465; 95% CI, 1.549-7.753; p=0.002). The nomogram after internal validation using the bootstrap method (200 runs) yielded a high concordance index of 0.756.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram highly correlates with the presence of +ypNodes after chemoradiation, however, considerably more refinement is needed before it can be implemented in the clinic.

Endoscopic tumor length is an independent prognostic factor in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

PURPOSE

To investigate the impact of endoscopic esophageal tumor length on survival for patients with resected esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathologic characteristics of 244 ESCC patients who underwent curative resection as the primary treatment at Taipei Veterans General Hospital between January 2000 and November 2010. The endoscopic tumor length was defined as a uniform measurement before completion of the esophagectomy. The impact of endoscopic tumor length on a patient's overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed. A Cox regression model was used to identify prognostic factors.

RESULTS

The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 81.2, 48.2, and 39.6%, respectively, with a median survival time of 18.0 months. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS rates were 66.2, 34.7, and 32.4%, respectively, with a median DFS of 15.0 months. Endoscopic tumor length correlated with pathologic tumor length [Pearson correction (r)=0.621; P<0.001] Regression trees analyses suggested an optimum cutoff point of >4 cm to identify patients with decreased long-term survival. In multivariate survival analysis, endoscopic tumor length (more or less than 4 cm) remained an independent prognostic factor for both OS (P=0.006) and DFS (P=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Endoscopic tumor length could have a significant impact on both the OS and DFS of patients with resected ESCC and may provide additional prognostic value to the current tumor, node, and metastasis staging system before patients receive any cancer-specific treatment.