Multicenter external validation of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score: A study by the Prognostic Assessment of Life and Limitations After Trauma in the Elderly (PALLIATE) consortium

Don't break the bank: Description of survivors in high-volume transfusion and utility of transfusion in trauma

INTRODUCTION

In response to blood shortages, providers face pressure to conserve blood. No metrics exist to calculate transfusion utility. We describe characteristics of survivors after high-volume resuscitation and evaluate transfusion utility in low-volume and high-volume resuscitation.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 2019 American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program was performed on trauma patients ≥16 years old receiving transfusion within 4 hours of arrival. Patients excluded if they died in the emergency department, were dead on arrival, received <2 units of packed red blood cells, did not receive fresh-frozen plasma, or were missing data. High-volume survivors received more blood than 95% of the surviving population (≥17 U of packed red blood cells). High-volume mortality patients received ≥17 U of packed red blood cells and did not survive to discharge. Characteristics of high-volume survivors were identified by multivariable logistic regression. Utility of transfusion was compared between low-volume (<17 U of packed red blood cells) and high-volume (≥17 U of packed red blood cells) groups by totaling U transfused to yield 1 survivor.

RESULTS

In total, 17,407 patients met study criteria, 12,585 (72%) survived. A total of 5.3% (663/12,585) of survivors were high-volume survivors. In total, 23% (1,112/4,823) of mortalities received ≥17 U of packed red blood cells. Low-volume survivors received a greater proportion of product than high-volume survivors (71% vs 34%, P < .001). Low-volume transfusions better used the blood supply (12.6 vs 130.8 U per survivor, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

High-volume resuscitation yields few survivors and strains the blood supply. Standardized assessment protocols should identify patients with a favorable survival profile to guide allocation. Units transfused per survivor can be used to monitor the effect that blood-conservation protocols have on transfusion utility.

Predictive Limitations of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score: A Retrospective Analysis of Mortality in Elderly Patients with Multiple Traumas and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

Background/Objectives: The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) is used to predict in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients with trauma. However, its applicability to elderly patients with multiple traumas and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains poorly understood. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the GTOS in elderly patients with multiple traumas and TBI and assess its performance in patients with mild and severe TBI. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 1283 geriatric multiple trauma patients (aged ≥ 65 years) treated at a regional trauma center from 2019 to 2023. Patients were stratified into mild (head Abbreviated Injury Scale [AIS] ≤ 3) and severe (head AIS ≥ 4) TBI groups. GTOS values were calculated for each patient, and predicted mortality was compared with in-hospital mortality. GTOS predictive accuracy was assessed by analyzing the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Patients had a median Injury Severity Score of 18 (interquartile range: 10-25); 33.3% of patients received red blood cell transfusions within 24 h. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 17.9%; GTOS predicted a mortality rate of 17.6% ± 0.17. The GTOS accurately predicted the in-hospital mortality in the entire cohort, achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.798. Predictive accuracy diminished for patients with severe TBI (AUC = 0.657), underestimating actual mortality (39.5% vs. 28.8% predicted). Conclusions: While the GTOS remains a useful tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with multiple traumas, it consistently underestimates mortality risk in those with severe TBI. Therefore, applying the GTOS in this patient subgroup warrants careful consideration.

Enhancing geriatric trauma mortality prediction: Modifying and assessing the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score with net benefit and decision curve analysis

OBJECTIVE

Calibration and discrimination indicators alone are insufficient for evaluating the clinical usefulness of prediction models, as they do not account for the cost of misclassification errors. This study aimed to modify the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) and assess the clinical utility of the modified model using net benefit (NB) and decision curve analysis (DCA) for predicting in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

The Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) 2017 was used to identify geriatric trauma patients (≥ 65 years) treated at Level I trauma centers. The outcome of interest was in-hospital mortality. The GTOS was modified to include additional patient, injury, and treatment characteristics identified through machine learning methods, focusing on early risk stratification. Calibration and discrimination indicators, along with NB and DCA, were utilized for evaluation.

RESULTS

Of the 67,222 admitted geriatric trauma patients, 5.6% died in the hospital. The modified GTOS score included the following variables with associated weights: initial airway intervention (5), Glasgow Coma Scale ≤13 (5), packed red blood cell transfusion within 24 h (3), penetrating injury (2), age ≥ 75 years (2), preexisting comorbidity (1), and torso injury (1), with a total range from 0 to 19. The modified GTOS demonstrated a significantly higher area under the curve (0.92 vs. 0.84, p < 0.0001), lower misclassification error (4.9% vs. 5.2%), and lower Brier score (0.036 vs. 0.042) compared to the original GTOS. DCA showed that using the modified GTOS for predicting in-hospital mortality resulted in higher NB than treating all, treating none, and treating based on the original GTOS across a wide range of clinician preferences.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified GTOS model exhibited superior predictive ability and clinical utility compared to the original GTOS. NB and DCA offer valuable complementary methods to calibration and discrimination indicators, comprehensively evaluating the clinical usefulness of prediction models and decision strategies.

Efficacy of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) in Predicting Mortality in Trauma Patients: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Trauma has a profound impact on mortality as well as short- and long-term health outcomes. For trauma patients to receive medical care in a timely manner, early identification and risk assessment are essential. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), which was created by combining age, the Injury Severity Score (ISS), and the requirement for packed red blood cell transfusion, has proven to be a valuable prognostic tool for elderly trauma patients, though its applicability to general trauma patients is still understudied.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed data from the Trauma Registry System at a Level I trauma center in southern Taiwan, covering the period from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2021. This study included 40,068 trauma patients aged 20 years and older. Statistical analyses included chi-square tests, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U tests, and multivariate analyses to identify independent risk factors for mortality. The predictive performance of the GTOS was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

The final study population included 40,068 patients, with 818 deaths and 39,250 survivors. Deceased patients had higher GTOS scores (mean 132.8 vs. 76.1, p < 0.001) and required more blood transfusions (mean 4.0 vs. 0.3 units, p < 0.001) compared to survivors. The optimal GTOS cut-off value for predicting mortality was 104.5, with a sensitivity of 82.6% and a specificity of 84.3% (AUC = 0.917). A high GTOS score was associated with increased mortality (9.6 vs. 0.4%, p < 0.001) compared with a low GTOS score, even after adjusting for confounding factors (adjusted mortality rate of 2.86, p < 0.001), and a longer hospital stay (14.0 vs. 7.7 days, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The GTOS is a valuable prognostic tool for predicting mortality in trauma patients, providing a simple and rapid assessment method. Its high predictive accuracy supports its use in broader trauma patient populations beyond the elderly. Further studies are recommended to refine and validate the GTOS in diverse trauma settings to enhance its clinical utility.

Blood transfusion in injured older adults: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

We asked how increasing age interacts with transfusion and mortality among older injured adults at our large regional trauma center.

BACKGROUND

Older adults are increasing proportions of acute trauma care and transfusion, but the specific interactions of increasing age with blood product use are unclear.

METHODS/MATERIALS

Trauma data (age, injury severity, mechanism, etc.) were linked with transfusion service data (type, timing and numbers of units) for all acute trauma patients treated at our center 2011-2022. Subsets of patients aged ≥55 years were identified by age decade and trends assessed statistically, p < 0.01.

RESULTS

Of 73 645 patients, 25 409 (34.5%) were aged ≥55. Within increasing 10-year age cohorts, these older patients were increasingly female (32.2%-67.2%), transferred from outside facilities (55.2%-65.9%) and injured in falls (44.4%-90.3%). Overall, patients ≥55, despite roughly equivalent injury severity, were twice as likely to be transfused (24% vs. 12.8%) as younger patients and to die during hospitalisation (7.5% vs. 2.9%). Cohort survival at all ages and levels of transfusion intensity in the first 4 h of care were more than 50%. Through age 94, numbers of red cell and whole blood units given in the first 4 h of care were a function of injury severity, not age cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

In our trauma resuscitation practice, patients aged ≥55 years are more likely to receive blood products than younger patients, but numbers of units given in the first 4 h appear based on injury severity. Age equity in acute resuscitation is demonstrated.

Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score for Predicting Mortality among Older Korean Adults with Trauma: Is It Applicable in All Cases?

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to validate the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) for predicting mortality associated with trauma in older Korean adults and compare the GTOS with the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS).

METHODS

This study included patients aged ≥65 years who visited the Chungbuk National University Hospital Regional Trauma Center between January 2016 and December 2022. We used receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots to assess the discrimination and calibration of the scoring systems.

RESULTS

Among 3,053 patients, the median age was 77 years, and the mortality rate was 5.2%. The overall GTOS-predicted mortality and 1-TRISS were 5.4% (interquartile range [IQR], 3.7-9.5) and 4.7% (IQR, 4.7-4.7), respectively. The areas under the curves (AUCs) of 1-TRISS and GTOS for the total population were 0.763 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.719-0.806) and 0.794 (95% CI, 0.755-0.833), respectively. In the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤12 group, the in-hospital mortality rate was 27.5% (79 deaths). The GTOS-predicted mortality and 1-TRISS in this group were 18.6% (IQR, 7.5-34.7) and 26.9% (IQR, 11.9-73.1), respectively. The AUCs of 1-TRISS and GTOS for the total population were 0.800 (95% CI, 0.776-0.854) and 0.744 (95% CI, 0.685-0.804), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The GTOS and TRISS demonstrated comparable accuracy in predicting mortality, while the GTOS offered the advantage of simpler calculations. However, the GTOS tended to underestimate mortality in patients with GCS ≤12; thus, its application requires care in such cases.

Evaluation of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) as a Prognostic Tool in Intensive Care Unit Trauma Patients

BACKGROUND

Existing prognostic scoring systems for intensive care unit (ICU) trauma patients require extensive data collection. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), which is based on age, injury severity, and transfusion need, has been validated for predicting mortality in elderly patients with trauma; however, its utility in the general ICU trauma population remains unexplored.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 2952 adult ICU trauma patients admitted between 2016 and 2021. The GTOS was calculated as follows: age + (Injury Severity Score × 2.5) + 22 (if transfused within 24 h). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to assess GTOS's ability to predict mortality. The optimal GTOS cutoff was determined using Youden's index. Mortality rates were compared between the high and low GTOS groups, including a propensity score-matched analysis adjusted for baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

This study included 2952 ICU trauma patients, with an overall mortality rate of 11.0% (n = 325). GTOS demonstrated good predictive accuracy for mortality (AUROC 0.80). The optimal cutoff was 121.8 (sensitivity, 0.791; specificity, 0.685). Despite adjustments, patients with GTOS ≥ 121.8 had significantly higher mortality (17.4% vs. 6.2%, p < 0.001) and longer hospital stays (20.3 vs. 15.3 days, p < 0.001) compared to GTOS < 121.8.

CONCLUSIONS

GTOS showed a reasonable ability to predict mortality in ICU trauma patients across all ages, although not as accurately as more complex ICU-specific models. With its simplicity, the GTOS may serve as a rapid screening tool for risk stratification in acute ICU trauma settings when combined with other data.

Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score as a Mortality Predictor in Isolated Moderate to Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major cause of mortality and disability worldwide, with severe cases significantly increasing the risk of complications and long-term mortality. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), based on age, injury severity, and transfusion need, has been validated for predicting mortality in older trauma patients, but its utility in predicting mortality for TBI patients remains unexplored.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 5543 adult trauma patients with isolated moderate to severe TBI, defined by head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores of ≥ 3, from 1998 to 2021. GTOS was calculated with the following formula: age + (Injury Severity Score × 2.5) + 22 (if transfused within 24 h). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) assessed GTOS's ability to predict mortality. The optimal GTOS cutoff value was determined using Youden's index. Mortality rates were compared between high- and low-GTOS groups, separated by the optimal GTOS cutoff value, including a propensity score-matched analysis adjusting for baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 5543 patients, mortality was 8.3% (462 deaths). Higher mortality is correlated with male sex, older age, higher GTOS, and comorbidities like hypertension, coronary artery disease, and end-stage renal disease. The optimal GTOS cut-off for mortality prediction was 121.5 (AUC = 0.813). Even when the study population was matched by propensity score, patients with GTOS ≥121.5 had much higher odds of death (odds ratio 2.64, 95% confidence interval 1.93-3.61, p < 0.001) and longer hospital stays (mean 16.7 vs. 12.2 days, p < 0.001) than those with GTOS < 121.5.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the idea that GTOS is a useful tool for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in isolated moderate to severe TBI patients. However, we encourage further research to refine GTOS for better applicability in TBI patients.

Markers of Futile Resuscitation in Traumatic Hemorrhage: A Review of the Evidence and a Proposal for Futility Time-Outs during Massive Transfusion

The reduction in the blood supply following the 2019 coronavirus pandemic has been exacerbated by the increased use of balanced resuscitation with blood components including whole blood in urban trauma centers. This reduction of the blood supply has diminished the ability of blood banks to maintain a constant supply to meet the demands associated with periodic surges of urban trauma resuscitation. This scarcity has highlighted the need for increased vigilance through blood product stewardship, particularly among severely bleeding trauma patients (SBTPs). This stewardship can be enhanced by the identification of reliable clinical and laboratory parameters which accurately indicate when massive transfusion is futile. Consequently, there has been a recent attempt to develop scoring systems in the prehospital and emergency department settings which include clinical, laboratory, and physiologic parameters and blood products per hour transfused as predictors of futile resuscitation. Defining futility in SBTPs, however, remains unclear, and there is only nascent literature which defines those criteria which reliably predict futility in SBTPs. The purpose of this review is to provide a focused examination of the literature in order to define reliable parameters of futility in SBTPs. The knowledge of these reliable parameters of futility may help define a foundation for drawing conclusions which will provide a clear roadmap for traumatologists when confronted with SBTPs who are candidates for the declaration of futility. Therefore, we systematically reviewed the literature regarding the definition of futile resuscitation for patients with trauma-induced hemorrhagic shock, and we propose a concise roadmap for clinicians to help them use well-defined clinical, laboratory, and viscoelastic parameters which can define futility.

Performance of trauma scoring systems in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients: comparison of the ISS, TRISS, and GTOS based on a systemic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of the Injury Severity Score (ISS), Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS), and the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

The MEDLINE, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases were searched for studies published from January 2008 to October 2023. Studies assessing the performance of the ISS, TRISS, or GTOS in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients (over 60 years old) and reporting data for the analysis of the pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) were included. Studies that were not conducted in a group of geriatric patients, did not consider mortality as the outcome variable, or had incomplete data were excluded. The Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) Clinical Prediction Rule Checklist was utilized to assess the risk of bias in included studies. STATA 16.0. was used for the AUROC analysis and HSROC analysis.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies involving 118,761 geriatric trauma patients were included. The pooled AUROC of the TRISS (AUC = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.77-0.87) was higher than ISS (AUC = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.71-0.79) and GTOS (AUC = 0.80, 95%CI: 0.77-0.83). The diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) calculated from HSROC curves also suggested that the TRISS (DOR = 21.5) had a better performance in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients than the ISS (DOR = 6.27) and GTOS (DOR = 4.76).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis suggested that the TRISS showed better accuracy and performance in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients than the ISS and GTOS.

Traumatic Brain Injury as an Independent Predictor of Futility in the Early Resuscitation of Patients in Hemorrhagic Shock

This review explores the concept of futility timeouts and the use of traumatic brain injury (TBI) as an independent predictor of the futility of resuscitation efforts in severely bleeding trauma patients. The national blood supply shortage has been exacerbated by the lingering influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of blood donors available, as well as by the adoption of balanced hemostatic resuscitation protocols (such as the increasing use of 1:1:1 packed red blood cells, plasma, and platelets) with and without early whole blood resuscitation. This has underscored the urgent need for reliable predictors of futile resuscitation (FR). As a result, clinical, radiologic, and laboratory bedside markers have emerged which can accurately predict FR in patients with severe trauma-induced hemorrhage, such as the Suspension of Transfusion and Other Procedures (STOP) criteria. However, the STOP criteria do not include markers for TBI severity or transfusion cut points despite these patients requiring large quantities of blood components in the STOP criteria validation cohort. Yet, guidelines for neuroprognosticating patients with TBI can require up to 72 h, which makes them less useful in the minutes and hours following initial presentation. We examine the impact of TBI on bleeding trauma patients, with a focus on those with coagulopathies associated with TBI. This review categorizes TBI into isolated TBI (iTBI), hemorrhagic isolated TBI (hiTBI), and polytraumatic TBI (ptTBI). Through an analysis of bedside parameters (such as the proposed STOP criteria), coagulation assays, markers for TBI severity, and transfusion cut points as markers of futilty, we suggest amendments to current guidelines and the development of more precise algorithms that incorporate prognostic indicators of severe TBI as an independent parameter for the early prediction of FR so as to optimize blood product allocation.

Application of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score in a Rural Setting

OBJECTIVE

To retrospectively apply the Geriatric Trauma Outcome (GTO) score to the patient population of a rural South Central Appalachian level 1 trauma center and identify the potential utility of the GTO score in guiding goals of care discussions.

METHODS

Trauma registry data was extracted for 5,627 patients aged 65+ from 2017 to 2021. GTO score was calculated for each patient. Descriptive statistics were calculated for age, Injury Severity Score (ISS), GTO score, receipt of red blood cells, discharge status, and code status. A simple logistic regression model was used to determine the relationship between GTO score and discharge status. The probability of mortality was then calculated using GTO score, and the distribution of code status among patients with ≤50, 51-75%, and >75% probability of mortality was examined.

RESULTS

For every 10-point increase in GTO score, odds of mortality increased by 79% (OR = 1.79; P < .001). Patients had an estimated 50% probability of mortality with a GTO score of 156, 75% with 174, and 99% with a score of 234, respectively. Seventeen patients had a GTO score associated with >75% probability of mortality. Of those 17 patients, four retained a full code status.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis demonstrates that the GTO score is a validated measure in a rural setting and can be an easily calculated metric to help determine a geriatric patient's probability of mortality following a trauma. The results of our study also found that GTO score can be used to inform goals of care discussions with patients.

The 2023 WSES guidelines on the management of trauma in elderly and frail patients

BACKGROUND

The trauma mortality rate is higher in the elderly compared with younger patients. Ageing is associated with physiological changes in multiple systems and correlated with frailty. Frailty is a risk factor for mortality in elderly trauma patients. We aim to provide evidence-based guidelines for the management of geriatric trauma patients to improve it and reduce futile procedures.

METHODS

Six working groups of expert acute care and trauma surgeons reviewed extensively the literature according to the topic and the PICO question assigned. Statements and recommendations were assessed according to the GRADE methodology and approved by a consensus of experts in the field at the 10th international congress of the WSES in 2023.

RESULTS

The management of elderly trauma patients requires knowledge of ageing physiology, a focused triage, including drug history, frailty assessment, nutritional status, and early activation of trauma protocol to improve outcomes. Acute trauma pain in the elderly has to be managed in a multimodal analgesic approach, to avoid side effects of opioid use. Antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended in penetrating (abdominal, thoracic) trauma, in severely burned and in open fractures elderly patients to decrease septic complications. Antibiotics are not recommended in blunt trauma in the absence of signs of sepsis and septic shock. Venous thromboembolism prophylaxis with LMWH or UFH should be administrated as soon as possible in high and moderate-risk elderly trauma patients according to the renal function, weight of the patient and bleeding risk. A palliative care team should be involved as soon as possible to discuss the end of life in a multidisciplinary approach considering the patient's directives, family feelings and representatives' desires, and all decisions should be shared.

CONCLUSIONS

The management of elderly trauma patients requires knowledge of ageing physiology, a focused triage based on assessing frailty and early activation of trauma protocol to improve outcomes. Geriatric Intensive Care Units are needed to care for elderly and frail trauma patients in a multidisciplinary approach to decrease mortality and improve outcomes.

Trauma systems in high socioeconomic index countries in 2050

Considerable political, structural, environmental and epidemiological change will affect high socioeconomic index (SDI) countries over the next 25 years. These changes will impact healthcare provision and consequently trauma systems. This review attempts to anticipate the potential impact on trauma systems and how they could adapt to meet the changing priorities. The first section describes possible epidemiological trajectories. A second section exposes existing governance and funding challenges, how these can be met, and the need to incorporate data and information science into a learning and adaptive trauma system. The last section suggests an international harmonization of trauma education to improve care standards, optimize immediate and long-term patient needs and enhance disaster preparedness and crisis resilience. By demonstrating their capacity for adaptation, trauma systems can play a leading role in the transformation of care systems to tackle future health challenges.

Futility in acute care surgery: first do no harm

The consequences of the delivery of futile or potentially ineffective medical care and interventions are devastating on the healthcare system, our patients and their families, and healthcare providers. In emergency situations in particular, determining if escalating invasive interventions will benefit a frail and/or severely critically ill patient can be exceedingly difficult. In this review, our objective is to define the problem of potentially ineffective care within the specialty of acute care surgery and describe strategies for improving the care of our patients in these difficult situations.

The value of compassion: Healthcare savings of palliative care consults in trauma

BACKGROUND

The effects of palliative care (PC) consultation on patient costs and hospitalization metrics in the adult trauma population are unclear.

STUDY DESIGN

We interrogated our Level I trauma center databases from 1/1/19 to 3/31/21 for patients age ≥18 admitted to the trauma service. Patients undergoing PC consult were matched using propensity scoring to those without PC consultation based on age, admission Glasgow Coma Scale score, Injury Severity Score and Head Abbreviated Injury Scale. Total costs, total cost per day, hospital length of stay (LOS), ICU LOS, intubation days, discharge disposition, and rates of nephrology consultation and tracheostomy/feeding tube placements were compared.

RESULTS

140 unique patients underwent PC consultation and were matched to a group not receiving PC consult during the same period. Median total costs in the PC cohort were $39,532 compared to $70,330 in the controls (p<0.01).  Median costs per day in the PC cohort were $3,495 vs $17,970 in the controls (p<0.01).  Median costs per ICU day in the PC cohort were $3,774 vs $17,127 in the controls (p<0.01).  Mean hospital LOS (15.7 vs 7 days), ICU LOS (7.9 vs 2.9 days), and ventilator days (5.1 vs 1.5) were significantly higher in the PC cohort (all p<0.01).  Rates of nephrology consultation (8.6 vs 2.1%, p = 0.03) and tracheostomy/feeding tube placements (12.1 vs 1.4%, p<0.01) were also higher in the PC group.  Patients were more likely to discharge to hospice if they received a PC consult (33.6 vs 2.1%, p<0.01).  Mean time to PC consult was 7.2 days (range 1 hour to 45 days). LOS post-consult correlated positively with time to PC consultation (r = 0.27, p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

Expert PC services are known to alleviate suffering and avert patient goal- and value-incongruent care. While trauma patients demand significant resources, PC consultation offered in concordance with life-sustaining interventions is associated with significant savings to patients and the healthcare system. Given the correlation between LOS following PC consult and time to PC consult, savings may be amplified by earlier PC consultation in appropriate patients.

A Comparative Analysis of Hospital Triage Systems in the Geriatric Adult Trauma Patients: A Quality Improvement Pilot Study

BACKGROUND

The objective of our study is to compare the predicted hospital admission disposition based on the level of risk as determined by the modified Trauma-Specific Frailty Index (mTSFI) score with those determined by arbitrary decisions made based on the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) severity level.

METHODS

We surveyed 100 trauma patients ages 50 and older, admitted to a level 1 trauma center between April 2019 and July 2019. We retrospectively reviewed the hospital admission disposition of each patient under the ESI, which was then compared to the mTSFI-predicted hospital admission disposition. The mTSFI scores were calculated by surveying each patient. Statistical analysis was performed to identify any statistical significance of concordance and discordance when comparing the mTSFI and ESI.

RESULTS

The average age was 57.6 ± 4.2 years old in the non-geriatric group vs 76.3 ± 7.3 years old in the geriatric group. There was a male predominance in both groups (61% vs 69.5%). The mTSFI identified a higher percentage of triage discordance in the non-geriatric group (73%) compared to the geriatric cohort (53%) (95% difference CI, [39.6-40], P = .05).

DISCUSSION

Non-geriatric patients have higher recorded rate of frailty than previously recognized and screening should begin at age 50, not 65. The mTSFI may be an effective tool to appropriately triage adult trauma patients at increased risk due to frailty and may reduce in-hospital complications.

Geriatric trauma prognosis trends over 10 years: analysis of a nationwide trauma registry

Purpose

With Japan’s population rapidly skewing toward aging, the number of geriatric trauma patients is expected to increase. Since we need to continue to improve the quality of geriatric trauma patient care, this study aimed to evaluate in-hospital mortality trends among geriatric trauma patients in Japan over a recent 10-year period.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of data from a Japanese nationwide trauma registry (the Japan National Trauma Data Bank) on patients admitted between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017. Geriatric patients were defined as those 65 years old and older. The primary outcome was to clarify in-hospital mortality trends and changes over these 10 years.

Results

We identified 265 268 eligible trauma patients. Excluding those under 65 years old and those with inadequate or unknown age data, missing prognosis, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, and burns, 107 766 patients were enrolled in this study. The total trauma patient in-hospital mortality trend was evaluated using the Cochran-Armitage test and showed a significant decrease (p<0.001). Although severe trauma patients (Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥16) showed a significant decreasing trend (p<0.001) over time (from 26.1% to 14.5%), less-severe trauma patients (ISS <16) did not (p=0.41) (from 2.7% to 2.1%). Mixed logistic regression analysis showed that the number of year patients stayed in the hospital was significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusions

While recognizing the limitations of the current analysis, our data demonstrated that prognoses for severe trauma patients over 65 years old improved dramatically over these 10 years, especially in those with severe trauma.

Level of evidence

Ⅲ—retrospective cohort study.

Predicting Mortality of Korean Geriatric Trauma Patients: A Comparison between Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score and Trauma and Injury Severity Score

PURPOSE

The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) is a new prognostic tool used to predict mortality of geriatric trauma patients. We aimed to apply this model to Korean geriatric trauma patients and compare it with the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) method.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients aged ≥65 years who were admitted to a level 1 trauma center from 2014 to 2018 were included in this study. Data on age, Injury Severity Score (ISS), packed red blood cell transfusion within 24 h, TRISS, admission disposition, mortality, and discharge disposition were collected. We analyzed the validity of GTOS and TRISS by comparing the area under the survival curve. Subgroup analysis for age, admission disposition, and ISS was performed.

RESULTS

Among 2586 participants, the median age was 75 years (interquartile range: 70-81). The median ISS was 9 (interquartile range: 4-12), with a transfusion rate (within 24 h) of 15.9% and mortality rate of 6.1%. The areas under the curve (AUCs) were 0.832 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.817-0.846] and 0.800 (95% CI, 0.784-0.815) for GTOS and TRISS, respectively. On subgroup analysis, patients with ISS ≥9 showed a higher AUC of GTOS compared to the AUC of TRISS (p<0.05). Other subgroup analyses showed equally good power of discrimination for mortality.

CONCLUSION

GTOS can be used to predict mortality of severely injured Korean geriatric patients, and also be helpful in deciding whether invasive or aggressive treatments should be administered to them.

Validation of the artificial intelligence-based trauma outcomes predictor (TOP) in patients 65 years and older

Background

The Trauma Outcomes Predictor tool was recently derived using a machine learning methodology called optimal classification trees and validated for prediction of outcomes in trauma patients. The Trauma Outcomes Predictor is available as an interactive smartphone application. In this study, we sought to assess the performance of the Trauma Outcomes Predictor in the elderly trauma patient.

Methods

All patients aged 65 years and older in the American College of Surgeons–Trauma Quality Improvement Program 2017 database were included. The performance of the Trauma Outcomes Predictor in predicting in-hospital mortality and combined and specific morbidity based on incidence of 9 specific in-hospital complications was assessed using the c-statistic methodology, with planned subanalyses for patients 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85+ years.

Results

A total of 260,505 patients were included. Median age was 77 (71–84) years, 57% were women, and 98.8% had a blunt mechanism of injury. The Trauma Outcomes Predictor accurately predicted mortality in all patients, with excellent performance for penetrating trauma (c-statistic: 0.92) and good performance for blunt trauma (c-statistic: 0.83). Its best performance was in patients 65 to 74 years (c-statistic: blunt 0.86, penetrating 0.93). Among blunt trauma patients, the Trauma Outcomes Predictor had the best discrimination for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome (c-statistic 0.75) and cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation (c-statistic 0.75). Among penetrating trauma patients, the Trauma Outcomes Predictor had the best discrimination for deep and organ space surgical site infections (c-statistics 0.95 and 0.84, respectively).

Conclusion

The Trauma Outcomes Predictor is a novel, interpretable, and highly accurate predictor of in-hospital mortality in the elderly trauma patient up to age 85 years. The Trauma Outcomes Predictor could prove useful for bedside counseling of elderly patients and their families and for benchmarking the quality of geriatric trauma care.

Improved Prediction of Older Adult Discharge After Trauma Using a Novel Machine Learning Paradigm

BACKGROUND

The ability to reliably predict outcomes after trauma in older adults (age ≥ 65 y) is critical for clinical decision making. Using novel machine-learning techniques, we sought to design a nonlinear, competing risks paradigm for prediction of older adult discharge disposition following injury.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The National Trauma Databank (NTDB) was used to identify patients 65+ y between 2007 and 2014. Training was performed on an enriched cohort of diverse patients. Factors included age, comorbidities, length of stay, and physiologic parameters to predict in-hospital mortality and discharge disposition (home versus skilled nursing/long-term care facility). Length of stay and discharge status were analyzed via competing risks survival analysis with Bayesian additive regression trees and a multinomial mixed model.

RESULTS

The resulting sample size was 47,037 patients. Admission GCS and age were important in predicting mortality and discharge disposition. As GCS decreased, patients were more likely to die (risk ratio increased by average of 1.4 per 2-point drop in GCS, P < 0.001). As GCS decreased, patients were also more likely to be discharged to a skilled nursing or long-term care facility (risk ratio decreased by 0.08 per 2-point decrease in GCS, P< 0.001). The area under curve for prediction of discharge home was improved in the competing risks model 0.73 versus 0.43 in the traditional multinomial mixed model.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicting older adult discharge disposition after trauma is improved using machine learning over traditional regression analysis. We confirmed that a nonlinear, competing risks paradigm enhances prediction on any given hospital day post injury.

Unseen Burden of Injury: Post-Hospitalization Mortality in Geriatric Trauma Patients

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Older adults are at risk for adverse outcomes after trauma, but little is known about post-acute survival as state and national trauma registries collect only inpatient or 30-day outcomes. This study investigates long-term, out-of-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

Level I Trauma Center registry data were matched to the US Social Security Death Index (SSDI) to determine long-term and out-of-hospital outcomes of older patients. Blunt trauma patients aged ≥65 were identified from 2009 to 2015 in an American College of Surgeons Level 1 Trauma Center registry, n = 6289 patients with an age range 65-105 years, mean age 78.5 ± 8.4 years. Dates of death were queried using social security numbers and unique patient identifiers. Demographics, injury, treatments, and outcomes were compared using descriptive and univariate statistics.

RESULTS

Of 6289 geriatric trauma patients, 505 (8.0%) died as an inpatient following trauma. Fall was the most common mechanism of injury (n = 4757, 76%) with mortality rate of 46.5% at long-term follow-up; motor vehicle crash (MVC) (n = 1212, 19%) had long-term mortality of 27.6%. Overall, 24.1% of patients died within 1 year of trauma. Only 8 of 488 patients who died between 1 and 6 months post-trauma were inpatient. Mortality rate varied by discharge location: 25.1% home, 36.4% acute rehabilitation, and 51.5% skilled nursing facility, P < .0001.

CONCLUSION

Inpatient and 30-day mortality rates in national outcome registries fail to fully capture the burden of trauma on older patients. Though 92% of geriatric trauma patients survived to discharge, almost one-quarter had died by 1 year following their injuries.

Efficacy of the treatment for elderly emergency patients with sepsis

Objectives

We evaluated the impact of age in septic patients admitted through the ER on clinical outcome and cost.

Methods

Patients with sepsis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) through the emergency room in our hospital between January 2013 and December 2018 were analyzed. They were divided into three groups according to their age: <65 years (group Y); 65–79 years (group M); and ≥80 years (group E). The duration of ICU and hospital stay, prognosis, and total hospital costs were compared among the three groups.

Results

During this period, 1,392 patients were admitted to the ICU through the emergency room, and 174 patients with sepsis were analyzed. There were 49, 79, and 46 patients in groups Y, M, and E, respectively. There was no significant difference in ICU stay. Group E exhibited the shortest hospital stay and the lowest total hospital cost with statistically significant difference (p = 0.010 and p = 0.007, respectively). However, group E showed the highest rate of hospital mortality (30.4%) compared to groups Y and M (14.3% and 21.5%, respectively; p = 0.163).

Conclusions

Elderly (aged ≥80 years) emergency patients with sepsis require shorter hospital stay and are associated with lower total hospital cost. However, it may be difficult for these patients to maintain the hospital mortality equivalent to those observed in patients aged <80 years.

Anticoagulation is Associated with Increased Mortality in Splenic Injuries

INTRODUCTION

Anticoagulation (AC) is associated with worse outcomes after trauma in some but not all studies. To further investigate the effect of AC on outcomes in patients with splenic injury, we analyzed the Trauma Quality Programs Participant Use File (PUF) METHODS: The 2017 PUF was used to identify adult (18+ y) with all mechanisms and grades of splenic injury. Demographics, comorbidities, hospital course and outcomes were compared between AC and non-AC patients.

RESULTS

A total of 18,749 patients were included, 622 were on AC. The AC patients were older but had comparable gender composition to non-AC patients. Injury Severity Score (18.2 versus 22.5) and rates of serious (AIS ≥ 3) injury were all lower in the AC group (P = 0.001). AC patients received fewer units of RBC (5.7 versus 8.0 units, P < 0.001) and FFP (3.9 versus 5.4 units, P < 0.001) in the first 24 h but underwent angiography at similar rates (23.6 versus 24.5%, P = 0.8). Among those who underwent angiography, patients were more likely to undergo embolization if they were on AC (89.7 versus 73.9%, P = 0.04). Rates of splenic surgery were comparable (19.3 versus 21.5%, P = 0.2) between AC versus non-AC patients. Median LOS was longer in AC patients (6.3 versus 5.6 d, P = 0.002). AC patients had a higher mortality (13.3 versus 7.0%, P = 0.001). In a multivariable binary logistic regression, AC was an independent risk factor for mortality with OR 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1-1.9) CONCLUSIONS: Anticoagulation is associated with increased mortality in patients with splenic injury.

SafeNET: Initial development and validation of a real-time tool for predicting mortality risk at the time of hospital transfer to a higher level of care

Background

Processes for transferring patients to higher acuity facilities lack a standardized approach to prognostication, increasing the risk for low value care that imposes significant burdens on patients and their families with unclear benefits. We sought to develop a rapid and feasible tool for predicting mortality using variables readily available at the time of hospital transfer.

Methods and findings

All work was carried out at a single, large, multi-hospital integrated healthcare system. We used a retrospective cohort for model development consisting of patients aged 18 years or older transferred into the healthcare system from another hospital, hospice, skilled nursing or other healthcare facility with an admission priority of direct emergency admit. The cohort was randomly divided into training and test sets to develop first a 54-variable, and then a 14-variable gradient boosting model to predict the primary outcome of all cause in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included 30-day and 90-day mortality and transition to comfort measures only or hospice care. For model validation, we used a prospective cohort consisting of all patients transferred to a single, tertiary care hospital from one of the 3 referring hospitals, excluding patients transferred for myocardial infarction or maternal labor and delivery. Prospective validation was performed by using a web-based tool to calculate the risk of mortality at the time of transfer. Observed outcomes were compared to predicted outcomes to assess model performance.

The development cohort included 20,985 patients with 1,937 (9.2%) in-hospital mortalities, 2,884 (13.7%) 30-day mortalities, and 3,899 (18.6%) 90-day mortalities. The 14-variable gradient boosting model effectively predicted in-hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality (c = 0.903 [95% CI:0.891–0.916]), c = 0.877 [95% CI:0.864–0.890]), and c = 0.869 [95% CI:0.857–0.881], respectively). The tool was proven feasible and valid for bedside implementation in a prospective cohort of 679 sequentially transferred patients for whom the bedside nurse calculated a SafeNET score at the time of transfer, taking only 4–5 minutes per patient with discrimination consistent with the development sample for in-hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality (c = 0.836 [95%CI: 0.751–0.921], 0.815 [95% CI: 0.730–0.900], and 0.794 [95% CI: 0.725–0.864], respectively).

Conclusions

The SafeNET algorithm is feasible and valid for real-time, bedside mortality risk prediction at the time of hospital transfer. Work is ongoing to build pathways triggered by this score that direct needed resources to the patients at greatest risk of poor outcomes.

Validation of the geriatric trauma outcome scores in predicting outcomes of elderly trauma patients

BACKGROUND

Using three patient characteristics, including age, Injury Severity Score (ISS) and transfusion within 24 h of admission (yes vs. no), the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) and Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score II (GTOS II) have been developed to predict mortality and unfavourable discharge (to a nursing home or hospice facility), of those who were ≥65 years old, respectively.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to validate the GTOS and GTOS II models. For the nested-cohort requiring intensive care, we compared the GTOS scores with two ICU prognostic scores - the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III and Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death (ANZROD).

METHODS

All elderly trauma patients admitted to the State Trauma Unit between 2009 and 2019 were included. The discrimination ability and calibration of the GTOS and GTOS II scores were assessed by the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic (AUROC) curve and a calibration plot, respectively.

RESULTS

Of the 57,473 trauma admissions during the study period, 15,034 (26.2%) were ≥65 years-old. The median age and ISS of the cohort were 80 (interquartile range [IQR] 72-87) and 6 (IQR 2-9), respectively; and the average observed mortality was 4.3%. The ability of the GTOS to predict mortality was good (AUROC 0.838, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.821-0.855), and better than either age (AUROC 0.603, 95%CI 0.581-0.624) or ISS (AUROC 0.799, 95%CI 0.779-0.819) alone. The GTOS II's ability to predict unfavourable discharge was satisfactory (AUROC 0.707, 95%CI 0.696-0.719) but no better than age alone. Both GTOS and GTOS II scores over-estimated risks of the adverse outcome when the predicted risks were high. The GTOS score (AUROC 0.683, 95%CI 0.591-0.775) was also inferior to the APACHE III (AUROC 0.783, 95%CI 0.699-0.867) or ANZROD (AUROC 0.788, 95%CI 0.705-0.870) in predicting mortality for those requiring intensive care.

CONCLUSIONS

The GTOS scores had a good ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors in the elderly trauma patients, but GTOS II scores were no better than age alone in predicting unfavourable discharge. Both GTOS and GTOS II scores were not well-calibrated when the predicted risks of adverse outcome were high.

Prioritizing Communication in the Provision of Palliative Care for the Trauma Patient

Purpose of Review

Communication skills in the ICU are an essential part of the care of trauma patients. The goal of this review is to summarize key aspects of our understanding of communication with injured patients in the ICU.

Recent Findings

The need to communicate effectively and empathetically with patients and identify primary goals of care is an essential part of trauma care in the ICU. The optimal design to support complex communication in the ICU will be dependent on institutional experience and resources. The best/worst/most likely model provides a structural model for communication.

Summary

We have an imperative to improve the communication for all patients, not just those at the end of their life. A structured approach is important as is involving family at all stages of care. Communication skills can and should be taught to trainees.

The incidence of geriatric trauma is increasing and comparison of different scoring tools for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients

Purpose

The study aimed to examine the changing incidence of geriatric trauma and evaluate the predictive ability of different scoring tools for in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

Methods

Annual reports released by the National Trauma Database (NTDB) in the USA from 2005 to 2015 and the Trauma Register DGU® in Germany from 1994 to 2012 were analyzed to examine the changing incidence of geriatric trauma. Secondary analysis of a single-center cohort study conducted among 311 severely injured geriatric trauma patients in a level I trauma center in Switzerland was completed. According to the in-hospital survival status, patients were divided into the survival and non-survival group. The differences of the ISS (injury severity score), NISS (new injury severity score), TRISS (Trauma and Injury Severity Score), APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II), and SPAS II (simplified acute physiology score II) between two groups were evaluated. Then, the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of different scoring tools for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients were calculated.

Results

The analysis of the NTDB showed that the increase in the number of geriatric trauma ranged from 18 to 30% between 2005 and 2015. The analysis of the DGU® showed that the mean age of trauma patients rose from 39.11 in 1993 to 51.10 in 2013, and the proportion of patients aged ≥ 60 years rose from 16.5 to 37.5%. The findings from the secondary analysis showed that 164 (52.73%) patients died in the hospital. The ISS, NISS, APACHE II, and SAPS II in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group, and the TRISS in the death group was significantly lower than those in the survival group. The AUCs of the ISS, NISS, TRISS, APACHE II, and SAPS II for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients were 0.807, 0.850, 0.828, 0.715, and 0.725, respectively.

Conclusion

The total number of geriatric trauma is increasing as the population ages. The accuracy of ISS, NISS and TRISS was higher than the APACHE II and SAPS II for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

Prediction of mortality in critically-ill elderly trauma patients: a single centre retrospective observational study and comparison of the performance of trauma scores

Background

Trauma in the elderly (≥ 65 years) population is increasing. This study compares the performance of trauma scoring systems in predicting 30-day mortality among the traumatised elderly patients admitted to the intensive care unit in a major trauma centre.

Methods

We collected retrospective data for all elderly trauma patients admitted to our intensive care units between January 2012 and December 2017. We assessed Injury Severity Score (ISS), Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) and the Trauma Audit and Research Network’s (TARN) Probability of Survival (Ps17) between survivors and non-survivors. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the performance of these scoring systems.

Results

There were 255 elderly trauma patients with overall 30-day survival of 76%. There was a statistically significant difference in ISS, GTOS and Ps17 scores between survivors and non-survivors (p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was statistically significant for all 3, with AUROC of 0.66 (95% CI 0.59–0.74) for the ISS, 0.68 (95% CI 0.61–0.76) for the GTOS and 0.79 (95% CI 0.72–0.85) for the Ps17. The optimal cut-off points were ≥ 28, ≥ 142, ≤ 76.73 for ISS, GTOS and Ps17, respectively.

Conclusion

Both ISS and GTOS scoring systems preformed equally in predicting 30-day mortality in traumatised elderly patients admitted to the intensive care unit, however neither were robust enough to utilise in clinical practise. The Ps17 performed more robustly, although was not developed for prognosticating on individual patients. Larger prospective studies are needed to validate these scoring systems in critically-ill elderly traumatised patients, which may help to facilitate early prognostication.

Predictors of elderly mortality after trauma: A novel outcome score

INTRODUCTION

Elderly trauma patients are at high risk for mortality, even when presenting with minor injuries. Previous prognostic models are poorly used because of their reliance on elements unavailable during the index hospitalization. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive algorithm to accurately estimate in-hospital mortality using easily available metrics.

METHODS

The National Trauma Databank was used to identify patients 65 years and older. Data were split into derivation (2007-2013) and validation (2014-2015) data sets. There was no overlap between data sets. Factors included age, comorbidities, physiologic parameters, and injury types. A two-tiered scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality was developed: a quick elderly mortality after trauma (qEMAT) score for use at initial patient presentation and a full EMAT (fEMAT) score for use after radiologic evaluation. The final model (stepwise forward selection, p < 0.05) was chosen based on calibration and discrimination analysis. Calibration (Brier score) and discrimination (area under the receiving operating characteristic curve [AuROC]) were evaluated. Because National Trauma Databank did not include blood product transfusion, an element of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), a regional trauma registry was used to compare qEMAT versus GTOS. A mobile-based application is currently available for cost-free utilization.

RESULTS

A total of 840,294 patients were included in the derivation data set and 427,358 patients in the validation data set. The fEMAT score (median, 91; S.D., 82-102) included 26 factors, and the qEMAT score included eight factors. The AuROC was 0.86 for fEMAT (Brier, 0.04) and 0.84 for qEMAT. The fEMAT outperformed other trauma mortality prediction models (e.g., Trauma and Injury Severity Score-Penetrating and Trauma and Injury Severity Score-Blunt, age + Injury Severity Score). The qEMAT outperformed the GTOS (AuROC, 0.87 vs. 0.83).

CONCLUSION

The qEMAT and fEMAT accurately estimate the probability of in-hospital mortality and can be easily calculated on admission. This information could aid in deciding transfer to tertiary referral center, patient/family counseling, and palliative care utilization.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiological Study, level IV.

Spirometry not pain level predicts outcomes in geriatric patients with isolated rib fractures

BACKGROUND

Geriatric patients with rib fractures are at risk for developing complications and are often admitted to a higher level of care (intensive care units [ICUs]) based on existing guidelines. Forced vital capacity (FVC) has been shown to correlate with outcomes in patients with rib fractures. Complete spirometry may quantify pulmonary capacity, predict outcome, and potentially assist with admission triage decisions.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled 86 patients, 60 years or older with three or more isolated rib fractures presenting after injury. After informed consent, patients were assessed with respect to pain (visual analog scale), grip strength, FVC, forced expiratory volume 1 second (FEV1), and negative inspiratory force on hospital days 1, 2, and 3. Outcomes included discharge disposition, length of stay (LOS), pneumonia, intubation, and unplanned ICU admission.

RESULTS

Mean age was 77.4 (SD, 10.2) and 43 (50.0%) were female. Forty-five patients (55.6%) were discharged home, median LOS was 4 days (interquartile range, 3-7). Pneumonias (2), unplanned ICU admissions (3), and intubation (1) were infrequent. Spirometry measures including FVC, FEV1, and grip strength predicted discharge to home and FEV1, and pain level on day 1 moderately correlated with the LOS. Within each subject, FVC, FEV1, and negative inspiratory force did not change for 3 days despite pain at rest and pain after spirometry improving from day 1 to 3 (p = 0.002, p < 0.001 respectively). Change in pain also did not predict outcomes and pain level was not associated with respiratory volumes on any of the 3 days. After adjustment for confounders, FEV1 remained a significant predictor of discharge home (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.06) and LOS (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Spirometry measurements early in the hospital stay predict ultimate discharge home, and this may allow immediate or early discharge. The impact of pain control on pulmonary function requires further study.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Diagnostic test, level IV.

One-year mortality in geriatric trauma patients: Improving upon the geriatric trauma outcomes score utilizing the social security death index

BACKGROUND

Geriatric Trauma Outcomes Score (GTOS) predicts in-patient mortality in geriatric trauma patients and has been validated in a prospective multicenter trial and expanded to predict adverse discharge (GTOS II). We hypothesized that these formulations actually underestimate the downstream sequelae of injury and sought to predict longer-term mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

The Parkland Memorial Hospital Trauma registry was queried for patients 65 years or older from 2001 to 2013. Patients were then matched to the Social Security Death Index. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. The original GTOS formula (variables of age, Injury Severity Score [ISS], 24-hour transfusion) was tested to predict 1-year mortality using receiver operator curves. Significant variables on univariate analysis were used to build an optimal multivariate model to predict 1-year mortality (GTOS III).

RESULTS

There were 3,262 patients who met inclusion. Inpatient mortality was 10.0% (324) and increased each year: 15.8%, 1 year; 17.8%, 2 years; and 22.6%, 5 years. The original GTOS equation had an area under the curve of 0.742 for 1-year mortality. Univariate analysis showed that patients with 1-year mortality had on average increased age (75.7 years vs. 79.5 years), ISS (11.1 vs. 19.1), lower GCS score (14.3 vs. 10.5), more likely to require transfusion within 24 hours (11.5% vs. 31.3%), and adverse discharge (19.5% vs. 78.2%; p < 0.0001 for all). Multivariate logistic regression was used to create the optimal equation to predict 1-year mortality: (GTOSIII = age + [0.806 × ISS] + 5.55 [if transfusion in first 24 hours] + 21.69 [if low GCS] + 34.36 [if adverse discharge]); area under the curve of 0.878.

CONCLUSION

Traumatic injury in geriatric patients is associated with high mortality rates at 1 year to 5 years. GTOS III has robust test characteristics to predict death at 1 year and can be used to guide patient centered goals discussions with objective data.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic, level III.

Timing and methods of frailty assessments in geriatric trauma patients: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

The trauma population is aging and better prognostic measures for geriatric trauma patients are required. Frailty rather than age appears to be associated with poor outcomes. This systematic review aimed to identify the optimum frailty assessment instrument and timing of assessment in patients aged over 65 years admitted to hospital after traumatic injury. The secondary aim was to evaluate outcomes associated with frailty in elderly trauma populations.

METHODS

This systematic review was registered with the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42018090620). A MEDLINE and EMBASE literature search was conducted from inception to June 2019 combining the concepts of injury, geriatric, frailty, assessment and prognosis. Included studies were in patients 65 years or older hospitalised after injury and exposed to an instrument meeting consensus definition for frailty assessment. Study quality was assessed using criteria for review of prognostic studies combined with a GRADE approach.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight papers met inclusion criteria. Twenty-eight frailty or component instruments were reported, and assessments of pre-injury frailty were made up to 1-year post injury. Pre-injury frailty prevalence varied from 13% (13/100) to 94% (17/18), with in-hospital mortality rates from 2% (5/250) to 33% (6/18). Eleven studies found an association between frailty and mortality. Eleven studies reported an association between frailty and a composite outcome of mortality and adverse discharge destination. Generalisability and assessment of strength of associations was limited by single centre studies with inconsistent findings and overlapping cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between frailty and adverse outcomes including mortality in geriatric trauma patients were demonstrated despite a range of frailty instruments, administering clinicians, time of assessment and data sources. Although evidence gaps remain, incorporating frailty assessment into trauma systems is likely to identify geriatric patients at risk of adverse outcomes. Consistency in frailty instruments and long-term geriatric specific outcome measures will improve research relevance.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III prognostic.

Duration of Respiratory Failure After Trauma Is Not Associated With Increased Long-Term Mortality

OBJECTIVES

Although 1-year survival in medically critically ill patients with prolonged mechanical ventilation is less than 50%, the relationship between respiratory failure after trauma and 1-year mortality is unknown. We hypothesize that respiratory failure duration in trauma patients is associated with decreased 1-year survival.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort of trauma patients.

SETTING

Single center, level 1 trauma center.

PATIENTS

Trauma patients admitted from 2011 to 2014; respiratory failure is defined as mechanical ventilation greater than or equal to 48 hours, excluded head Abbreviated Injury Score greater than or equal to 4.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Mortality was calculated from the Washington state death registry. Cohort was divided into short (≤ 14 d) and long (> 14 d) ventilation groups. We compared survival with a Cox proportional hazard model and generated a receiver operator characteristic to describe the respiratory failure and mortality relationship. Data are presented as medians with interquartile ranges and hazard ratios with 95% CIs. We identified 1,503 patients with respiratory failure; median age was 51 years (33-65 yr) and Injury Severity Score was 19 (11-29). Median respiratory failure duration was 3 days (2-6 d) with 10% of patients in the long respiratory failure group. Cohort mortality at 1 year was 16%, and there was no difference in mortality between short and long duration of respiratory failure. Predictions for 1-year mortality based on respiratory failure duration demonstrated an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.57. We determined that respiratory failure patients greater than or equal to 75 years had an increased hazard of death at 1 year, hazard ratio, 6.7 (4.9-9.1), but that within age cohorts, respiratory failure duration did not influence 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Duration of mechanical ventilation in the critically injured is not associated with 1-year mortality. Duration of ventilation following injury should not be used to predict long-term survival.

Geriatric Trauma Screening Tool: Preinjury Functional Status Dictates Intensive Care Unit Discharge Disposition

Older adults account for an increasing percentage of trauma patients and have worse outcomes when compared with younger populations. Simple prediction tools are needed to designate risk categories among these patients. The Geriatric Trauma Screening Tool (GTST) was developed to risk stratify older adults admitted to the ICU at a Level 1 trauma center. One hundred fifty patients aged ≥ 65 years were prospectively screened for high-risk (HR) injuries, comorbidities, and pre-hospital function using the GTST. Patients who screened for HR were more likely to have an unfavorable disposition than non-HR patients. HR patients had significantly longer ICU and hospital length of stays when compared with non-HR patients. In addition, patients with prior functional impairment were at higher risk for an unfavorable discharge disposition than their counterparts. Implementation of the GTST predicted discharge disposition in geriatric trauma patients admitted to the ICU. Pre-injury functional status was a better predictor of discharge disposition than either the types of HR injuries or the presence of comorbidities. Risk stratification of geriatric trauma patients allows for early engagement of patients and caregivers regarding transitions of care as well as more efficient utilization of hospital resources.

A Comparison of Scoring Systems for Predicting Short- and Long-term Survival After Trauma in Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

Early identification of geriatric patients at high risk for mortality is important to guide clinical care, medical decision making, palliative discussions, quality assurance, and research. We sought to identify injured older adults at highest risk for 30-day mortality using an empirically derived scoring system from available data and to compare it with current prognostic scoring systems.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of injured adults ≥ 65 years transported by 44 emergency medical services (EMS) agencies to 49 emergency departments in Oregon and Washington from January 1, 2011, through December 31, 2011, with follow-up through December 31, 2012. We matched data from EMS to Medicare, inpatient, trauma registries, and vital statistics. Using a primary outcome of 30-day mortality, we empirically derived a new risk score using binary recursive partitioning and compared it to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), modified frailty index, geriatric trauma outcome score (GTOS), GTOS II, and Injury Severity Score (ISS).

RESULTS

There were 4,849 patients, of whom 234 (4.8%) died within 30 days and 1,040 (21.5%) died within 1 year. The derived score, the geriatric trauma risk indicator (GTRI; emergent airway or CCI ≥ 2), had 87.2% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI] = 83.0% to 91.5%) and 30.6% specificity (95% CI = 29.3% to 31.9%) for 30-day mortality (area under the receiving operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.589, 95% CI = 0.566 to 0.611). AUROC values for other scoring systems ranged from 0.592 to 0.678. When the sensitivity for each existing score was held at 90%, specificity values ranged from 7.5% (ISS) to 30.6% (GTRI).

CONCLUSIONS

Older, injured adults transported by EMS to a large variety of trauma and nontrauma hospitals were more likely to die within 30 days if they required emergent airway management or had a higher comorbidity burden. When compared to other risk measures and holding sensitivity constant near 90%, the GTRI had higher specificity, despite a lower AUROC. Using GTOS II or the GTRI may better identify high-risk older adults than traditional scores, such as ISS, but identification of an ideal prognostic tool remains elusive.

Improvement in geriatric trauma outcomes in an evolving trauma system

Background

The elderly trauma patient has increased mortality compared with younger patients. During the last 15 years, initial treatment of severely injured patients at Oslo University Hospital Ulleval (OUHU) has changed resulting in overall improved outcomes. Whether this holds true for the elderly trauma population needs exploration and was the aim of the present study.

Methods

We performed a retrospective study of 2628 trauma patients 61 years or older admitted to OUHU during the 12-year period, 2002-2013. The population was stratified based on age (61-70 years, 71-80 years, 81 years and older) and divided into time periods: 2002-2009 (P1) and 2010-2013 (P2). Multiple logistic regression models were constructed to identify clinically relevant core variables correlated with mortality and trauma team activation rate.

Results

Crude mortality decreased from 19% in P1 to 13% in P2 (p<0.01) with an OR of 0.77 (95 %CI 0.65 to 0.91) when admitted in P2. Trauma team activation rates increased from 53% in P1 to 72% in P2 (p<0.01) with an OR of 2.16 (95% CI 1.93 to 2.41) for being met by a trauma team in P2. Mortality increased from 10% in the age group 61-70 years to 26% in the group above 80 years. Trauma team activation rates decreased from 71% in the age group 61-70 years to 50% in the age group older than 80 years. Median ISS were 17 in all three age groups and in both time periods.

Discussion

Development of a multidisciplinary dedicated trauma service is associated with increased trauma team activation rate as well as survival in geriatric trauma patients. As expected, mortality increased with age, although inversely related to the likelihood of being met by a trauma team. Trauma team activation should be considered for all trauma patients older than 70 years.

Level of evidence

Level IV.

Risk factors and outcome of acute kidney injury in elderly trauma patients

BACKGROUND

Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is associated with significant morbidity. The risk factors for AKI in elderly trauma patients have not been defined.

METHODS

Injured patients 75 years old or older from 2014 to 2016 were evaluated. AKI was identified by RIFLE criteria. Patients with and without AKI were compared with chi square, ANOVA, and logistic regression.

RESULTS

836 patients were 75 years old or older. Patients with AKI were more commonly male, hypotensive on admission with a greater Injury Severity Score but age, diabetes, hypertension and baseline creatinine were similar. Patients with AKI had a higher mortality that did not increase with RIFLE stage. Male sex, ISS, hypotension on admission and presence of an extremity injury were independently associated with AKI by logistic regression.

CONCLUSION

AKI in elderly trauma patients is associated with magnitude of injury and shock but not pre-existing medical comorbidities and it significantly increased the risk of death.

Efficacy of the Treatment of Elderly Trauma Patients Requiring Intensive Care

Purpose

To evaluate the effectiveness of intensive care for the elderly trauma patients aged 80 years and older.

Methods

Trauma patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) through the emergency room (ER) at our hospital between January 2013 and December 2016 were analyzed. Patients were divided into two groups: patients aged 80 and older (group E) and <80 years old (group Y). Clinical courses and the total treatment costs were compared between the two groups. Data are shown as median (interquartile range).

Results

A hundred and seven trauma patients were included in the study. There were 26 patients in group E and 81 patients in group Y. There was no significant difference in Injury Severity Score (ISS) (group E, 19 (13, 32); group Y, 17 (14, 25); p=0.708); however, the probability of survival (Ps) was significantly lower in group E (group E, 0.895 (0.757, 0.950); group Y, 0.955 (0.878, 0.986); p=0.004). The duration of ICU stay (days) was significantly longer in group E (10 (5, 23)) than in group Y (4 (3, 9); p=0.001), and the total hospital stay (days) was longer in group E (33 (13, 57)) than in group Y (22 (12, 42); p=0.179). The hospital mortality was higher in group E (11.5%) than in group Y (6.2%) without a significant difference (p=0.365). The total treatment costs were significantly higher in group E ($23,558 (12,456, 42,790) with $1 = ¥110.57) than in group Y ($16,538 (7,412, 25,422); p=0.023).

Conclusions

Elderly trauma patients require longer-term treatment including ICU stay and greater cost with higher hospital mortality compared with young trauma patients.

Predictors of Dependency in Geriatric Trauma Patients with Rib Fractures: A Population Study

The geriatric trauma population is unique. These patients are at risk of being discharged to rehabilitation or a skilled nursing facility, instead of being returned to their homes, placing a significant burden on both the patient families and society. This study evaluated which patient characteristics increase the likelihood of a previously independent geriatric blunt trauma becoming functionally dependent and being discharged to a location other than home. Data were extracted from the National Trauma Data Bank from 2012 to 2014 for blunt trauma patients ≥65 years old, admitted from home, with one or more rib fractures. Primary outcomes were discharge home versus a facility. Subgroup analysis evaluated disposition to acute short-term rehabilitation or subacute rehabilitation or skilled nursing facility. Multivariable analysis was used to calculate probabilities of disposition based on the above variables, controlling for comorbidities. Sixteen thousand six hundred thirty-two patients were included. Only 58 per cent were discharged home. Increased age, ≥4 rib fractures, white race, and female gender were found to increase the risk of discharge to a facility. In addition, patients with chronic renal failure, history of diabetes, obesity, or heart failure were less likely to be discharged home. This study shows that age, gender, race, and the number of rib fractures are statistically significant in predicting which patients are less likely to be discharged home. This reinforces the need for the development of triage and treatment protocols in this higher risk population, to decrease the social and financial burden of these injuries.

Age-Related Characteristics and Outcomes for Patients With Severe Trauma: Analysis of Japan's Nationwide Trauma Registry

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Although geriatric trauma patients are becoming more common, few large-scale analyses have comprehensively evaluated geriatric-specific characteristics in trauma. This study aims to clarify the age-specific characteristics, outcomes, and predictive accuracy of current trauma scoring systems among geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

Patients with severe trauma, with an Abbreviated Injury Scale score greater than or equal to 3, and registered in the Japan Trauma Data Bank during 2004 to 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Age-related differences were assessed for injury mechanism, injured region, anatomic and physiologic severity, and inhospital mortality. The mortality risk was evaluated with multivariate mixed-effect models adjusted for Injury Severity Score, Revised Trauma Score, year of injury, and treating facility. Age-related differences in the accuracy of the Injury Severity Score and Revised Trauma Score for predicting inhospital mortality were evaluated with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

We identified 127,303 patients, including 67,316 geriatric patients (52.9%) who were aged 60 years or older. The percentage of geriatric patients increased from 31.9% to 59.7% during the study period. The most frequent injury mechanism was ground-level falls (55.2%) and the most frequently injured region was the pelvis and lower extremities (43.7%). Severity-adjusted mixed-effects models revealed a marked age-dependent increase in mortality. Although the Injury Severity Score had similar predictive accuracy among all generations, the accuracy of the Revised Trauma Score decreased with increasing age.

CONCLUSION

The characteristics of trauma patients varied widely according to age, and mortality risk increased steadily with increasing age, despite a decrease in anatomic injury severity. The Revised Trauma Score had decreasing predictive accuracy at older ages, suggesting that an alternative measure is needed.

Significance of Blood Transfusion Units in Determining the Probability of Mortality among Elderly Trauma Patients Based on the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Scoring System: A Cross-Sectional Analysis Based on Trauma Registered Data

Background: For elderly trauma patients, a prognostic tool called the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), where GTOS = (age) + (ISS × 2.5) + (22 if any packed red blood cells (pRBCs) were transfused within 24 h after admission), was developed for predicting mortality. In such calculation, a score of 22 was added in the calculation of GTOS regardless of the transfused units of blood. This study aimed to assess the effect of transfused blood units on the mortality outcomes of the elderly trauma patients who received blood transfusion (BT). Methods: Detailed data of 687 elderly trauma patients aged ≥65 years who were transfused with pRBCs within 24 h after admission into a level I trauma center between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2016 were retrieved from the Trauma Registry System database. Based on the units of pRBCs transfused, the study population was divided into two groups to compare the mortality outcomes between these groups. Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with its 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality were calculated by adjusting sex, pre-existing comorbidities, and GTOS. Results: When the cut-off value of BT was set as 3 U of pRBCs, patients who received BT ≥ 3 U had higher odds of mortality than those who received BT < 3 U (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.94–4.56; p < 0.001). Patients who received more units of pRBCs still showed higher odds of mortality than their counterparts. After adjusting for sex, pre-existing comorbidities, and GTOS, comparison revealed that the patients who received BT of 3 U to 6 U had a 1.7-fold adjusted odds of mortality than their counterparts. The patients who received BT ≥ 8 U and 10 U had a 2.1-fold (AOR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.09–3.96; p < 0.001) and 4.4-fold (AOR, 4.4; 95% CI, 2.04–9.48; p < 0.001) adjusted odds of mortality than those who received BT < 8 U and <10 U, respectively. Conclusions: This study revealed that the units of BT did matter in determining the probability of mortality. For those who received more units of blood, the mortality may be underestimated according to the GTOS.

Frailty and Prognostication in Geriatric Surgery and Trauma

Frailty is a predominant predictor of poor outcomes in older populations. This article presents a review of the concept of frailty and its role for prognostication among geriatric trauma and surgery patients. We discuss models of frailty defined in the scientific literature, emphasizing that frailty is a process of biologic aging. We emphasize the importance of screening, assessment, and inclusion of frailty indices for the development and use of prognostication instruments/tools in the population of interest. Finally, we discuss best practices for the delivery of prognostic information in acute care settings and specific recommendations for trauma and surgical care settings.