Life after 90: Predictors of mortality and performance of the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator in 4,724 nonagenarian patients undergoing emergency general surgery

Use of risk assessment tools in emergency general surgery: a cross-sectional survey of surgeons and trainees

The applicability of risk assessment tools (RATs) for preoperative risk assessment (PRA) in Emergency General Surgery (EGS) is unclear. Limited knowledge of surgeons' approach to risk assessment is available. We investigated how Canadian surgeons approach PRA for EGS and their awareness of available RATs. Canadian Association of General Surgeons members were invited to complete an online cross-sectional survey. Descriptive statistics were reported. Of 278 respondents, 70% were attending surgeons (44% had 5-10 years in practice, 43% > 10 years), 5% fellows, and 25% residents. Most worked in medium-/large-volume centers (89%) and teaching hospitals (77%). During preoperative risk assessment, 2/3 of respondents reported applying clinical experience/instinct and referring to literature, while 55% used RATs. The best-known and used tools were the ACS-NSQIP calculator (68% and 59%) and the Emergency Surgery Acuity Score (ESAS, 66% and 47%, respectively). Surgeons were divided regarding the accuracy of RAT estimates, with 47% considering them generally accurate and 49% inaccurate. Trainees reported greater interest in major morbidity risk (86% vs. 65%) and probability of supported discharge (45% vs. 29%) than surgeons. Among participants not using RATs, 41% indicated they are scarcely accessible in the EGS context, while 33% found them cumbersome and time-consuming. RATs are underused in favor of personal judgment. The use of RATs may facilitate decision-making in elderly/complex patients and help reduce variability in practice, particularly for trainees and less-experienced surgeons. A greater effort in education is needed to spread the culture of RATs for PRA.

Risk Factors of In-Hospital Venous Thromboembolism and Prognosis After Emergent Ventral Hernia Repair

Background: The risk factors and association of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following emergent ventral hernia repair (EVHR) remains uncertain. This aim of the study aims was to establish the predictors of VTE after EVHR and its influence on the long-term outcomes. Methods: A total of 2093 patients from the MIMIC-IV database who underwent EVHR were recruited. Multivariate logistic regression and nomogram models were developed to predict in-hospital VTE and mortality. Calibration and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to assess the model's effectiveness and reliability. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the net clinical benefits of the model. Results: The rate of in-hospital VTE was 1.6% (33/2093) after EVHR. Four independent potential factors were established after multivariate analysis, and the abovementioned risk factors fit into the nomogram. The prediction model presented good performance metrics (C-index: 0.857), the calibration and ROC curves demonstrated the accurate prediction power, and DCA indicated the superior net benefit of the established model. In-hospital and 1-year mortality rates were 0.8% (17/2093) and 4.1% (86/2076) after EVHR. The potential factors were included in the mortality prediction nomogram. The prediction model presented good performance metrics (C-index of 0.957 and 0.828, respectively), the calibration and ROC curves were consistent with the actual results, and DCA indicated the superior net benefit of the established model. Conclusion: The nomogram, derived from the logistic regression model, demonstrated excellent predictive performance for VTE occurrence and prognosis in patients following EVHR. This model could serve as a valuable reference for clinical decision-making regarding VTE prevention and for enhancing post-EVHR prognosis.

Priority areas for outcomes improvement among older adults undergoing inpatient general surgery inclusive of geriatric-pertinent complications

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive studies on priority areas for improving geriatric surgery outcomes, inclusive of geriatric-pertinent data, are limited.

METHODS

The ACS NSQIP geriatric database (2014-2018) was used to abstract older adults (≥65 years) undergoing inpatient general surgery procedures. Thirty-day complication, functional decline, and mortality rates were analyzed, with a focus on two geriatric-pertinent complications: delirium and new/worsening pressure ulcers.

RESULTS

There were 9062 patients; 41.9% were ≥75 years. Mean age was 73.9 years. The majority of patients were female (54.0%), White (77.7%), and had independent functional status before surgery (94.0%). Overall 30-day complication, functional decline, and mortality rates were 33.6%, 34.5%, and 3.5%, respectively; failure to the rescue rate was 9.7%. Including geriatric-pertinent complications increased the overall complication rate by 20.4%. Delirium emerged as the leading complication (11.9%), followed by bleeding (11.1%), and wound-related complications (10.1%); these three accounted for 53.7% of complications. Delirium and pressure ulcers were associated with a >50% rate of postoperative functional decline (52.0% and 71.4%, respectively); pressure ulcers were also notable for a 25.5% failure to the rescue rate. Both were also among complications most likely to occur following the 3 most common procedures (colorectal surgery, pancreatic resections, and exploratory laparotomy), which overall accounted for approximately 79.6% of complications, 73.4% of patients experiencing functional decline, and 82.3% of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Delirium is the leading complication among older adults undergoing inpatient surgery. Overall, a small number of complications and procedure groups account for most surgical morbidity and mortality among older adults and thus constitute priority areas for outcomes improvement.

The interaction between geriatric and neighborhood vulnerability: Delineating prehospital risk among older adult emergency general surgery patients

BACKGROUND

When presenting for emergency general surgery (EGS) care, older adults frequently experience increased risk of adverse outcomes owing to factors related to age ("geriatric vulnerability") and the social determinants of health unique to the places in which they live ("neighborhood vulnerability"). Little is known about how such factors collectively influence adverse outcomes. We sought to explore how the interaction between geriatric and neighborhood vulnerability influences EGS outcomes among older adults.

METHODS

Older adults, 65 years or older, hospitalized with an AAST-defined EGS condition were identified in the 2016 to 2019, 2021 Florida State Inpatient Database. Latent variable models combined the influence of patient age, multimorbidity, and Hospital Frailty Risk Score into a single metric of "geriatric vulnerability." Variations in geriatric vulnerability were then compared across differences in "neighborhood vulnerability" as measured by variations in Area Deprivation Index, Social Vulnerability Index, and their corresponding subthemes (e.g., access to transportation).

RESULTS

A total of 448,968 older adults were included. For patients living in the least vulnerable neighborhoods, increasing geriatric vulnerability resulted in up to six times greater risk of death (30-day risk-adjusted hazards ratio [HR], 6.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.49-8.89). The effect was more than doubled among patients living in the most vulnerable neighborhoods, where increasing geriatric vulnerability resulted in up to 15 times greater risk of death (30-day risk-adjusted HR, 15.12; 95% CI, 12.57-18.19). When restricted to racial/ethnic minority patients, the multiplicative effect was four-times as high, resulting in corresponding 30-day HRs for mortality of 11.53 (95% CI, 4.51-29.44) versus 40.67 (95% CI, 22.73-72.78). Similar patterns were seen for death within 365 days.

CONCLUSION

Both geriatric and neighborhood vulnerability have been shown to affect prehospital risk among older patients. The results of this study build on that work, presenting the first in-depth look at the powerful multiplicative interaction between these two factors. The results show that where a patient resides can fundamentally alter expected outcomes for EGS care such that otherwise less vulnerable patients become functionally equivalent to those who are, at baseline, more aged, more frail, and more sick.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level III.

Effect of emergency general surgery on postoperative performance status in patients aged over 90 years

Background

Functional deterioration following emergency general surgery (EGS) poses a significant challenge in super-elderly patients. However, limited research has focused on assessing the deterioration in postoperative performance status (PS). This study aimed to investigate the impact of EGS on PS deterioration in super-elderly patients, and the extent to which deteriorated PS is recovered.

Methods

This historical cohort study comprised 77 super-elderly patients who underwent EGS between July 2015 and December 2020. Functional deterioration was evaluated by comparing preoperative and postoperative Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG-PS). The Emergency Surgical Score (ESS) was used as a risk-adjustment tool. Questionnaires were mailed to the patients and their families to assess post-discharge PS and obtain their impressions of EGS.

Results

Postoperative PS deteriorated in 35/77 patients (45.5 %). Significant differences were observed between the groups in terms of sex, serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, ESS scores, preoperative ECOG-PS, duration of operation, and major complications. Multivariate analysis of preoperative factors showed that ESS ≥7 (OR: 3.7, 95 % CI: 1.0-13), preoperative ECOG-PS ≤2 (OR: 5.9, 95 % CI: 1.7-21), and female sex (OR: 5.8, 95 % CI: 1.6-21) were associated with postoperative ECOG-PS deterioration. According to the questionnaire results, PS recovery post-discharge was observed in 6/36 (17 %) patients, and 34/36 (94 %) patients and their families expressed positive impressions of EGS.

Conclusions

EGS in super-elderly patients highly caused a deterioration in their PS, particularly in patients with maintained preoperative PS. PS hardly recovered; however, most patients and their families had positive impressions of the EGS.

Key message

We assessed the pre- and postoperative performance status of super-elderly patients who underwent emergency general surgery. Surgery caused a marked deterioration in patients' functional performance, which seldom recovered postoperatively.

Current use of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator in academic surgery: a mixed-methods study

Background

This study aims to quantitatively assess use of the NSQIP surgical risk calculator (NSRC) in contemporary surgical practice and to identify barriers to use and potential interventions that might increase use.

Materials and methods

We performed a cross-sectional study of surgeons at seven institutions. The primary outcomes were self-reported application of the calculator in general clinical practice and specific clinical scenarios as well as reported barriers to use.

Results

In our sample of 99 surgeons (49.7% response rate), 73.7% reported use of the NSRC in the past month. Approximately half (51.9%) of respondents reported infrequent NSRC use (<20% of preoperative discussions), while 14.3% used it in ≥40% of preoperative assessments. Reported use was higher in nonelective cases (30.2% vs 11.1%) and in patients who were ≥65 years old (37.1% vs 13.0%), functionally dependent (41.2% vs 6.6%), or with surrogate consent (39.9% vs 20.4%). NSRC use was not associated with training status or years in practice. Respondents identified a lack of influence on the decision to pursue surgery as well as concerns regarding the calculator's accuracy as barriers to use. Surgeons suggested improving integration to workflow and better education as strategies to increase NSRC use.

Conclusions

Many surgeons reported use of the NSRC, but few used it frequently. Surgeons reported more frequent use in nonelective cases and frail patients, suggesting the calculator is of greater utility for high-risk patients. Surgeons raised concerns about perceived accuracy and suggested additional education as well as integration of the calculator into the electronic health record.

What If We Do Not Operate? Outcomes of Nonoperatively Managed Emergency General Surgery Patients

INTRODUCTION

Although two-thirds of patients with emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions are managed nonoperatively, their long-term outcomes are not well described. We describe outcomes of nonoperative management in a cohort of older EGS patients and estimate the projected risk of operative management using the NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We studied single-center inpatients aged 65 y and more with an EGS consult who did not undergo an operation (January 2019-December 2020). For each patient, we recorded the surgeon's recommendation as either an operation was "Not Needed" (medical management preferred) or "Not Recommended" (risk outweighed benefits). Our main outcome of interest was mortality at 30 d and 1 y. Our secondary outcome of interest was SRC-projected 30-day postoperative mortality risk (median % [interquartile range]), calculated using hypothetical low-risk and high-risk operations.

RESULTS

We included 204 patients (60% female, median age 75 y), for whom an operation was "Not Needed" in 81% and "Not Recommended" in 19%. In this cohort, 11% died at 30 d and 23% died at 1 y. Mortality was higher for the "Not Recommended" cohort (37% versus 5% at 30 d and 53% versus 16% at 1 y, P < 0.05). The SRC-projected 30-day postoperative mortality risk was 3.7% (1.3-8.7) for low-risk and 5.8% (2-11.8) for high-risk operations.

CONCLUSIONS

Nonoperative management in older EGS patients is associated with very high risk of short-term and long-term mortality, particularly if a surgeon advised that risks of surgery outweighed benefits. The SRC may underestimate risk in the highest-risk patients.

Chronologic Age, Independent of Frailty, is the Strongest Predictor of Failure-to-Rescue After Surgery for Gastrointestinal Malignancies

BACKGROUND

Prior studies of older cancer patients undergoing large operations have reported similar rates of complications to the general population but higher rates of mortality, suggesting higher rates of failure-to-rescue (FTR) with advanced age. Whether age is a marker for frailty, or an independent predictor of FTR, is not clear.

METHODS

The ACS-NSQIP database was queried from 2015-19 for patients undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal (GI) malignancy. Patients were divided into age-stratified cohorts: C1 (18-55), C2 (56-65), C3 (66-75), C4 (76-89). Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were computed to assess the relationship of the FTR rate and age, while controlling for potential confounders. A second analysis was specified with all covariates converted to Z-scores, which generated scaled adjusted odds ratios (saOR) to determine the strongest predictor of FTR.

RESULTS

Multivariable analysis suggests that age is an independent predictor of FTR: C2:C1 aOR = 1.87 (p < 0.001); C3:C1 aOR = 3.33 (p < 0.001); C4:C1 aOR = 5.71 (p < 0.001). The scaled analysis demonstrated that age is the strongest predictor of FTR (saOR = 1.92, p < 0.001); a one standard deviation increase in age was associated with a 92% increased odds of FTR. The saOR for frailty (1.18, p < 0.001) and for number of comorbidities (1.10, p = 0.005) also were statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Chronologic age was independently associated with increased FTR after surgery for GI malignancy and was the strongest predictor of FTR. These results suggest that chronologic age must be carefully considered when evaluating the fitness of a patient for GI cancer surgery.

Risk factors of serious postoperative outcomes in patients aged ≥90 years undergoing surgical intervention

Objective

We aimed to identify preoperative and intraoperative factors associated with serious postoperative outcomes, which may help patients and clinicians make better-informed decisions.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study including all patients aged ≥90 years who underwent surgery between January 1, 2011, and January 1, 2021, at Chongqing University Central Hospital. We assessed 30 pre- and intraoperative demographic and clinical variables. Logistic regression was used to identify the independent risk factors for serious postoperative outcomes in patients aged ≥90 years.

Results

A total of 428 patients were included in our analysis. The mean age was 92.6 years (SD ± 2.6). There were 240 (56.1%) females and 188 (43.9%) males. The most common comorbidities were hypertension (44.9%) and arrhythmias (34.8%). The 30-day hospital mortality was 5.6%, and severe morbidity was 33.2%. Based on the multivariate logistic regression classification analysis of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA)≥ Ⅳ [odds ratio (OR), 5.39, 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.06-14.16, P = .001], emergency surgery (OR, 5.02, 95% CI, 2.85-15.98, P = .001) and chronic heart failure (OR, 6.11, 95% CI, 1.93-13.06, P = .001) were identified as independent risk factors for 30-day hospital mortality, and ASA≥ Ⅳ (OR, 4.56, 95%CI, 2.56-8.15, P < .001), Barthel index (BI) < 35 (OR, 2.28, 95%CI, 1.30-3.98, P = .001), chronic heart failure (OR, 3.67, 95%CI, 1.62-8.31, P = .002), chronic kidney disease (OR, 4.24, 95%CI, 1.99-9.05, P < .001), general anesthesia (OR, 3.31, 95%CI, 1.91-5.76, P < .001), emergency surgery (OR, 3.72, 95%CI, 1.98-6.99, P < .001), and major surgery (OR, 3.44, 95%CI, 1.90-6.22, P < .001) were identified as independent risk factors for serious postoperative complications.

Conclusions

Patients aged ≥90 years with ASA≥ Ⅳ, BI < 35, combined with chronic heart failure or chronic kidney disease, undergoing emergency surgery, major surgery or general anesthesia have a higher risk of serious postoperative outcomes. Identifying these risk factors in an early stage may contribute to our clinical decision-making and improve the quality of treatments.

External Validation of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator in Elderly Patients Undergoing General Surgery Operations

Preoperative risk stratification in the elderly surgical patient is an essential part of contemporary perioperative care and can be done with the use of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS-SRC). However, data on the generalizability of the ACS-SRC in the elderly is scarce. In this study, we report an external validation of the ACS-RC in a geriatric cohort. A retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database was performed including patients aged > 65 who underwent general surgery procedures during 2012−2017 in a Greek academic centre. The predictive ability of the ACS-SRC for post-operative outcomes was tested with the use of Brier scores, discrimination, and calibration metrics. 471 patients were included in the analysis. 30-day postoperative mortality was 3.2%. Overall, Brier scores were lower than cut-off values for almost all outcomes. Discrimination was good for serious complications (c-statistic: 0.816; 95% CI: 0.762−0.869) and death (c-statistic: 0.824; 95% CI: 0.719−0.929). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good calibration for all outcomes examined. Predicted and observed length of stay (LOS) presented significant differences for emergency and for elective cases. The ACS-SRC demonstrated good predictive performance in our sample and can aid preoperative estimation of multiple outcomes except for the prediction of post-operative LOS.

Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer-External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score)

BACKGROUND

The increased rates of postoperative mortality after emergency surgery for obstructive colon cancer (OCC) require the use of risk-stratification scores. The study purpose is to external validate the surgical risk calculator (SRC) and the AFC/OCC score and to create a score for risk stratification.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Overall, 435 patients with emergency surgery for OCC were included in this retrospective study. We used statistical methods suitable for the aimed purpose.

RESULTS

Postoperative mortality was 11.72%. SRC performance: strong discrimination (AUC = 0.864) and excellent calibration (11.80% predicted versus 11.72% observed); AFC/OCC score performance: adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.787) and underestimated mortality (6.93% predicted versus 11.72% observed). We identified nine predictors of postoperative mortality: age > 70 years, CHF, ECOG > 2, sepsis, obesity or cachexia, creatinine (aN) or platelets (aN), and proximal tumors (AUC = 0.947). Based on the score, we obtained four risk groups of mortality rate: low risk (0.7%)-0-2 factors, medium risk (12.5%)-3 factors, high risk (40.0%)-4 factors, very high risk (84.4%)-5-6 factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The two scores were externally validated. The easy identification of predictors and its performance recommend the mortality score of the Clinic County Emergency Hospital of Galați/OCC for clinical use.

Applying Evidence-based Principles to Guide Emergency Surgery in Older Adults

Although outcomes for older adults undergoing elective surgery are generally comparable to younger patients, outcomes associated with emergency surgery are poor. These adverse outcomes are in part because of the physiologic changes associated with aging, increased odds of comorbidities in older adults, and a lower probability of presenting with classic "red flag" physical examination findings. Existing evidence-based perioperative best practice guidelines perform better for elective compared with emergency surgery; so, decision making for older adults undergoing emergency surgery can be challenging for surgeons and other clinicians and may rely on subjective experience. To aid surgical decision making, clinicians should assess premorbid functional status, evaluate for the presence of geriatric syndromes, and consider social determinants of health. Documentation of care preferences and a surrogate decision maker are critical. In discussing the risks and benefits of surgery, patient-centered narrative formats with inclusion of geriatric-specific outcomes are important. Use of risk calculators can be meaningful, although limitations exist. After surgery, daily evaluation for common postoperative complications should be considered, as well as early discharge planning and palliative care consultation, if appropriate. The role of the geriatrician in emergency surgery for older adults may vary based on the acuity of patient presentation, but perioperative consultation and comanagement are strongly recommended to optimize care delivery and patient outcomes.

Surgical risk calculators in veterans following lower extremity amputation

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the accuracy of multiple risk calculators for 30-day mortality on patients undergoing major lower extremity amputation.

METHODS

The actual 30-day mortality at a single Veterans Affairs institution was compared to the predicted outcome from the following risk calculators: ACS-NSQIP, VASQIP, amputation scoring tool (AST), and POTTER elective.

RESULTS

The overall calculated 30-day mortality was similar to the actual mortality with the VASQIP and POTTER elective risk calculators, while the NSQIP and AST over-estimated the 30-day mortality. The predictive accuracy of the POTTER and NSQIP risk calculators were moderate (AUC >0.7), and fair for the VASQIP and AST.

CONCLUSION

Risk assessment tools can provide adjunctive data on predicted 30-day mortality in patients undergoing major lower extremity amputation. In our study, there were differences in predictability of the risk calculators for lower extremity amputation that should be considered when utilizing a risk assessment tool to improve physician-patient shared decision-making.

One-Year Outcomes Following Emergency Laparotomy: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Emergency laparotomies (EL) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. To date, 30-day mortality has been predominately reported, and been the focus of various national emergency laparotomy audits. Only a few studies have reported on the long-term mortality associated with EL. The aim of this study was to review the one-year mortality following EL.

METHOD

A systematic review was conducted using PRISMA guidelines to identify studies published in the last 10 years reporting on long-term mortality associated with EL. The data abstracted included: patient demographics, pathology or type of operation performed for EL, post-operative mortality at 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, beyond 1-year and inpatient, functional outcomes and risk factors associated with mortality. A quality assessment of included studies was performed.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies reporting long-term outcomes associated with EL were identified, including the results of 48,023 patients. The indications and/or pathologies for ELs varied. The 30-day mortality after EL ranged from 5.3% to 21.8%, and the one-year mortality ranged from 15.1 to 47%. The mortality in the six studies focusing on elderly patients ranged from 30 to 47%.

CONCLUSION

The long-term mortality rate associated with EL is substantial. Further study is required to understand the 1-year mortality described in the studies and translate these findings for meaningful application into the clinical care of these patients.

A non-linear ensemble model-based surgical risk calculator for mixed data from multiple surgical fields

BACKGROUND

The misestimation of surgical risk is a serious threat to the lives of patients when implementing surgical risk calculator. Improving the accuracy of postoperative risk prediction has received much attention and many methods have been proposed to cope with this problem in the past decades. However, those linear approaches are inable to capture the non-linear interactions between risk factors, which have been proved to play an important role in the complex physiology of the human body, and thus may attenuate the performance of surgical risk calculators.

METHODS

In this paper, we presented a new surgical risk calculator based on a non-linear ensemble algorithm named Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model, and explored the corresponding pipeline to support it. In order to improve the practicability of our approach, we designed three different modes to deal with different data situations. Meanwhile, considering that one of the obstacles to clinical acceptance of surgical risk calculators was that the model was too complex to be used in practice, we reduced the number of input risk factors according to the importance of them in GBDT. In addition, we also built some baseline models and similar models to compare with our approach.

RESULTS

The data we used was three-year clinical data from Surgical Outcome Monitoring and Improvement Program (SOMIP) launched by the Hospital Authority of Hong Kong. In all experiments our approach shows excellent performance, among which the best result of area under curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow test ([Formula: see text]) and brier score (BS) can reach 0.902, 7.398 and 0.047 respectively. After feature reduction, the best result of AUC, [Formula: see text] and BS of our approach can still be maintained at 0.894, 7.638 and 0.060, respectively. In addition, we also performed multiple groups of comparative experiments. The results show that our approach has a stable advantage in each evaluation indicator.

CONCLUSIONS

The experimental results demonstrate that NL-SRC can not only improve the accuracy of predicting the surgical risk of patients, but also effectively capture important risk factors and their interactions. Meanwhile, it also has excellent performance on the mixed data from multiple surgical fields.

Alive and at home: Five-year outcomes in older adults following emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

While the short-term risks of emergency general surgery (EGS) admission among older adults have been studied, little is known about long-term functional outcomes in this population. Our objective was to evaluate the relationship between EGS admission and the probability of an older adult being alive and residing in their own home 5 years later. We also examined the extent to which specific EGS diagnoses, need for surgery, and frailty modified this relationship.

METHODS

We performed a population-based, retrospective cohort study of community-dwelling older adults (age, ≥65 years) admitted to hospital for one of eight EGS diagnoses (appendicitis, cholecystitis, diverticulitis, strangulated hernia, bowel obstruction, peptic ulcer disease, intestinal ischemia, or perforated viscus) between 2006 and 2018 in Ontario, Canada. Cases were matched to controls from the general population. Time spent alive and at home (measured as time to nursing home admission or death) was compared between cases and controls using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox models.

RESULTS

A total of 90,245 older adults admitted with an EGS diagnosis were matched with controls. In the 5 years following an EGS admission, cases experienced significantly fewer months alive and at home compared with controls (mean time, 43 vs. 50 months; p < 0.001). Except for patients operated on for appendicitis and cholecystitis, all remaining patient subgroups experienced reduced time alive and at home compared with controls (p < 0.001). Cases remained at elevated risk of nursing home admission or death compared with controls for the entirety of the 5-year follow-up (hazard ratio, 1.17-5.11).

CONCLUSION

Older adults who required hospitalization for an EGS diagnosis were at higher risk for death or admission to a nursing home for at least 5 years following admission compared with controls. However, most patients (57%) remained alive and living in their own home at the end of this 5-year period.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiological, level III.

The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) accurately predicts outcomes in elderly patients undergoing emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

The performance of the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS), a validated risk calculator, in the elderly emergency general surgery (EGS) patient remains unclear. We hypothesized that ESS accurately predicts outcomes in elderly EGS patients, including octogenarians and nonagenarians.

METHODS

Using the 2007-2017 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database, we included all EGS patients ≥65 years old. The correlation between ESS, mortality and morbidity was assessed in the 3 patient cohorts (>65, octogenarians and nonagenarians), using the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 124,335 patients were included, of which 34,215 (28%) were octogenarians and 7239 (6%) were nonagenarians. In patients ≥65 years, ESS accurately predicted mortality (AUC 0.81). For octogenarians and nonagenarians, ESS predicted mortality moderately well (AUC 0.77 and 0.69, respectively.

CONCLUSION

ESS accurately predicts mortality and morbidity in the elderly EGS patient, but its accuracy in predicting morbidity decreases for nonagenarians.

Characteristics and Prognostic Associations of Echocardiographic Pulmonary Hypertension With Normal Left Ventricular Systolic Function in Patients ≥90 Years of Age

The high prevalence of pulmonary hypertension (PH) in elderly patients is well known. However, much remains unknown about those population. We sought to find the clinical characteristics of echocardiographic PH and the prognostic factors in patients ≥90 years of age. We retrospectively reviewed 310 patients ≥90 years of age (median age 92 years, 64% women) diagnosed as echocardiographic PH (peak systolic pulmonary arterial pressure ≥40 mm Hg) with normal left ventricular systolic function. We defined left heart disease (LHD) as significant left-sided valve diseases, left ventricular hypertrophy and left ventricular diastolic dysfunction by using echocardiography. The endpoint was all-cause death at 2,000 days after diagnosis. LHD was found in 92% of patients. During the median follow-up of 367 days (interquartile range, 39-1,028 days), 151 all-cause deaths (49%) occurred. Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that right ventricular fraction area change <35% (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 2.31; p <0.001), pericardial effusion (adjusted HR: 2.28; p <0.001), serum albumin <3.5 g/dL (adjusted HR: 1.76; p = 0.001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (adjusted HR: 1.93; p = 0.001) and New York Heart Association (NYHA) class ≥II (adjusted HR: 1.73; p = 0.004) were associated with mortality after adjusted for age. In conclusion, LHD was significantly associated with echocardiographic PH in most patients ≥90 years of age. Also, the co-morbid factors at diagnosis (right ventricular systolic dysfunction, pericardial effusion, hypoalbuminemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and NYHA class ≥II) were independently associated with mortality.

No news is good news? Three-year postdischarge mortality of octogenarian and nonagenarian patients following emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

Outcome data on the very elderly patients undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) are sparse. We sought to examine short- and long-term mortality in the 80 plus years population following EGS.

METHODS

Using our institutional 2008-2018 EGS Database, all the 80 plus years patients undergoing EGS were identified. The data were linked to the Social Security Death Index to determine cumulative mortality rates up to 3 years after discharge. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine predictors of in-hospital and 1-year cumulative mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 385 patients were included with a mean age of 84 years; 54% were female. The two most common comorbidities were hypertension (76.1%) and cardiovascular disease (40.5%). The most common procedures performed were colectomy (20.0%), small bowel resection (18.2%), and exploratory laparotomy for other procedures (15.3%; e.g., internal hernia, perforated peptic ulcer). The overall in-hospital mortality was 18.7%. Cumulative mortality rates at 1, 2, and 3 years after discharge were 34.3%, 40.5%, and 43.4%, respectively. The EGS procedure associated with the highest 1-year mortality was colectomy (49.4%). Although hypertension, renal failure, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, and elevated liver enzymes predicted in-hospital mortality, the only independent predictors of cumulative 1-year mortality were hypoalbuminemia (odds ratio, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-4.27; p = 0.025) and elevated serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (SGOT) level (odds ratio, 2.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-4.70; p = 0.029) at initial presentation. Patients with both factors had a cumulative 1-year mortality rate of 75.0%.

CONCLUSION

More than half of the very elderly patients undergoing major EGS were still alive at 3 years postdischarge. The combination of hypoalbuminemia and elevated liver enzymes predicted the highest 1-year mortality. Such information can prove useful for patient and family counseling preoperatively.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic, Level III.