Futile trauma transfers: An infrequent but costly component of regionalized trauma care

Potentially avoidable emergency department transfers among Medicare beneficiaries

INTRODUCTION

Transfer of patients between hospitals is common, costly, and over 20 % are estimated to be avoidable, meaning patients do not receive specialized interventions once transferred. Older adults are more likely to be transferred and may be at increased risk for developing delirium or other complications due to transfer. We aimed to determine the frequency of potentially avoidable transfer (PAT) among older adults; identify conditions most likely to involve a PAT; and describe factors associated with PAT.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of ED visits resulting in transfer to another hospital from 2008 to 2019 among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries 65 years and older. We defined PAT based on resource use at the receiving hospital - transfers resulting in a treat-and-release ED visit, observation stay, or inpatient hospitalization for 2 days or less who received no intensive care or advanced procedure and were discharged alive. We identified conditions with the highest rates of PAT and used multivariable logistic regression to identify the independent association of patient, diagnosis, hospital, and community-linked characteristics with PAT.

RESULTS

Among ∼3 million transfers, 11.3 % met criteria for PAT. Transferring hospitals varied in their rates of PAT, with a median (IQR) rate of 10.3 % (7.2-14.6). Conditions with high rates of PAT included transient cerebral ischemia (35.3 %), nonspecific chest pain (25.5 %), syncope (22.9 %), other fractures (18.4 %), and intracranial injury (16.9 %). These conditions were also associated with PAT in multivariable logistic regression (average marginal effect [AME] 28.2 % (95 %CI 27.4-29.1), 20.6 % (19.8-21.5), 19.2 % (18.5-19.9), 13.4 % (12.9-13.9), and 12.8 % (12.2-13.4), respectively, compared to transfers for sepsis). Patients who were age 85 and older, female, non-White, had fewer comorbidities, and large, for-profit, teaching, and critical access hospitals, and counties with high uninsurance rates were associated with higher likelihood of PAT. Safety net and rural hospitals, and hospitals in counties with high poverty rates were associated with lower likelihood of PAT.

DISCUSSION

PATs were common in transfers of older adults, particularly among a subset of neurologic, cardiovascular, and injury-related conditions. These conditions may represent ideal targets for intervention to decrease rates of avoidable transfer. Research exploring hospital variation in transfer practices and the impact of PAT on older adults' health outcomes are also needed.

Defining futile and potentially avoidable interhospital trauma transfers

PURPOSE

Interhospital transfer of critically injured patients to a major trauma service reduces preventable death in major trauma. Yet some of those transferred die without intervention. These 'futile' interhospital trauma transfers (IHTs), and other potentially avoidable IHTs place enormous stress on families of trauma victims, can delay care, and incur great cost to public health resources. This study sought to characterise these IHTs using current state guidelines for interhospital transfer.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using our institution's trauma registry from January 2016-December 2020. All adult patients transferred to our major trauma service were analysed. Futile IHTs were defined as death or transfer to hospice care without surgical, endoscopic, or radiological intervention, and without ICU admission, within 72 h of admission. Potentially avoidable IHTs were defined as all patients discharged alive without intervention or ICU care, and secondary over-triage patients are a subset of these patients who were discharged within 72 h of admission. Patient demographics, injuries, and treatments were categorised from electronic records and analysed.

RESULTS

Of 2,837 IHTs, seven (0.2 %) met criteria for futility. The majority were female, median age of 80 (IQR 85-75) and had a median Injury Severity Score (ISS) of 16 (IQR 25.5-11.5). By contrast, 1391 patients (49 %) were classified as potentially avoidable and 513 (18 %) were considered secondary over-triage. The majority were male, median age of 43 (IQR 62-28), and had a median ISS of 9 (IQR 13-4). Of these potentially avoidable IHTs, 984 (70.7 %) were discharged directly home.

CONCLUSION

Futile IHTs were infrequent, however over half of all trauma patients transferred from other hospitals were discharged without tertiary-level intervention. Trauma services should consider developing systems such as telehealth to support regional general and orthopaedic surgeons to co-manage lower risk trauma, particularly minor head and minor spinal trauma patients. This could be an integral part of safely reducing potentially avoidable IHTs and their associated costs while maintaining a low rate of preventable mortality in trauma.

Evaluation of Secondary Overtriage at a Rural Level 1 Trauma Center

OBJECTIVE

To retrospectively assess the prevalence of secondary overtriage (SO) within a rural regional Appalachian health care system.

METHODS

Trauma registry data was extracted for all trauma activation transfer patients from 2017 to 2022. Transferred patients were then stratified into two groups, non-secondary overtriage (non-SO) or SO. Patients were considered SO if they met three criteria following transfer: an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of less than 15, no required operative intervention, and discharge within 48 hours of arrival. Descriptive statistics were compared for age, length of stay (LOS), ICU LOS, and ISS. Surgical subspecialty consultations were compared between the two groups. Patients in the SO group were further assessed by body region of injury and Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS).

RESULTS

Among 3,291 trauma activation transfer patients, 43% (1,407) were considered SO transfers. Patients in the SO group were significantly younger, had shorter average hospital and ICU LOS, and lower ISS compared to the non-SO group. Additionally, 25.7% of patients in the SO group had injuries to the head or neck of which 8.96% have an AIS ≥3. 21% of patients had injuries to the face, with 0.14% having an AIS ≥3.

CONCLUSIONS

43% of transfer patients in this study met our definition of SO. Although no optimal rate of SO has been universally established, limiting SO stands to benefit both patients and trauma systems. This study highlights how institutional analysis of transfer patients may help inform transfer protocols to reduce secondary overtriage and overutilization of scarce resources.

Should they stay or should they go? Stroke transfers across a hospital network pre- and post-implementation of an automated image interpretation and communication platform

BACKGROUND

A key decision facing nonthrombectomy capable (spoke) hospitals is whether to transfer a suspected large vessel occlusion (LVO) patient to a comprehensive stroke center (CSC). In a retrospective cohort study, we investigated the rate of transfers resulting in endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) and associated costs before and after implementation of an artificial intelligence (AI)-based software.

METHODS

All patients with a final diagnosis of acute ischemic stroke presenting across a five-spoke community hospital network in affiliation with a CSC were included. The Viz LVO (Viz.ai, Inc.) software was implemented across the spokes with image sharing and messaging between providers across sites. In a cohort of patients before (pre-AI, December 2018-October 2020) and after (post-AI, October 2020-August 2022) implementation, we compared the EVT rate among ischemic stroke patients transferred out of our health system to the CSC. Secondary outcomes included the EVT rate based on spoke computed tomography angiography (CTA) and estimated transfer costs.

RESULTS

A total of 3113 consecutive eligible patients (mean age 71 years, 50% female) presented to the spoke hospitals with 162 transfers pre-AI and 127 post-AI. The rate of transfers treated with EVT significantly increased (32.1% pre-AI vs. 45.7% post-AI, p = 0.02). There was a sharp increase in CTA use post-AI at the spoke hospitals for all patients and transfers that likely contributed to the increased EVT transfer rate, but prior spoke CTA use alone was not sufficient to account for all improvement in EVT transfer rate (37.2% pre-AI vs. 49.2% post-AI, p = 0.12). In a binary logistic regression model, the odds of an EVT transfer in the intervention period were 1.85 greater as compared to preintervention (adjusted odds ratio 1.85, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.06). The decrease in non-EVT transfers resulted in an estimated annual benefit of $206,121 in spoke revenue and $119,921 in payor savings (all US dollars).

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of an automated image interpretation and communication platform was associated with increased CTA use, more transfers treated with EVT, and potential economic benefits.

Markers of Futile Resuscitation in Traumatic Hemorrhage: A Review of the Evidence and a Proposal for Futility Time-Outs during Massive Transfusion

The reduction in the blood supply following the 2019 coronavirus pandemic has been exacerbated by the increased use of balanced resuscitation with blood components including whole blood in urban trauma centers. This reduction of the blood supply has diminished the ability of blood banks to maintain a constant supply to meet the demands associated with periodic surges of urban trauma resuscitation. This scarcity has highlighted the need for increased vigilance through blood product stewardship, particularly among severely bleeding trauma patients (SBTPs). This stewardship can be enhanced by the identification of reliable clinical and laboratory parameters which accurately indicate when massive transfusion is futile. Consequently, there has been a recent attempt to develop scoring systems in the prehospital and emergency department settings which include clinical, laboratory, and physiologic parameters and blood products per hour transfused as predictors of futile resuscitation. Defining futility in SBTPs, however, remains unclear, and there is only nascent literature which defines those criteria which reliably predict futility in SBTPs. The purpose of this review is to provide a focused examination of the literature in order to define reliable parameters of futility in SBTPs. The knowledge of these reliable parameters of futility may help define a foundation for drawing conclusions which will provide a clear roadmap for traumatologists when confronted with SBTPs who are candidates for the declaration of futility. Therefore, we systematically reviewed the literature regarding the definition of futile resuscitation for patients with trauma-induced hemorrhagic shock, and we propose a concise roadmap for clinicians to help them use well-defined clinical, laboratory, and viscoelastic parameters which can define futility.

Patient Outcomes Compared Between Admissions Coordinated by the Transfer Center and Emergency Department at a U.S. Tertiary Care Hospital

BACKGROUND

Patient admissions at a U.S. tertiary care hospital occur via the emergency department (ED), or transfer center. We aim to compare the clinical outcomes of patients admitted from the ED to admissions coordinated by the transfer center.

METHODS

Admissions to Mayo Clinic Hospital, Rochester, MN, between July 2019 to June 2021 were identified in this retrospective study and categorized into two cohorts-transfer center and ED. The two cohorts were then matched for age, sex, admitting service, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to compare hospital length of stay (LOS), mortality, 30-day mortality, and 30-day readmissions between the two cohorts.

RESULTS

73,685 admissions were identified, of which 24,262 (33%) were transfer center admissions. In the matched cohorts (n = 19,093, each), in-hospital mortality (2.4% versus 1.9%), 30-day mortality (5.4% versus 3.9%), 30-day readmission (12.7% versus 7.2%), and LOS (6.4 days versus 5.1 days) were significantly higher ( P < 0.001) among the admissions coordinated by transfer center. A higher palliative care consultation rate (9.4% versus 6.2%, P < 0.001), and a lower proportion of home discharges home (76.2% versus 82.5%, P < 0.001) among transfer center admissions was observed. Similar findings were noted in multivariate analysis, even when adjusting for LOS.

CONCLUSIONS

Transfer center admissions had higher in-hospital mortality, LOS, 30-day mortality, and 30-day readmission compared to ED admissions. This study also highlights new considerations for palliative care consultation before transfer acceptance, especially to avoid futile transfers. Additional studies analyzing factors behind the outcomes of transfer center admissions are required.

Application of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score in a Rural Setting

OBJECTIVE

To retrospectively apply the Geriatric Trauma Outcome (GTO) score to the patient population of a rural South Central Appalachian level 1 trauma center and identify the potential utility of the GTO score in guiding goals of care discussions.

METHODS

Trauma registry data was extracted for 5,627 patients aged 65+ from 2017 to 2021. GTO score was calculated for each patient. Descriptive statistics were calculated for age, Injury Severity Score (ISS), GTO score, receipt of red blood cells, discharge status, and code status. A simple logistic regression model was used to determine the relationship between GTO score and discharge status. The probability of mortality was then calculated using GTO score, and the distribution of code status among patients with ≤50, 51-75%, and >75% probability of mortality was examined.

RESULTS

For every 10-point increase in GTO score, odds of mortality increased by 79% (OR = 1.79; P < .001). Patients had an estimated 50% probability of mortality with a GTO score of 156, 75% with 174, and 99% with a score of 234, respectively. Seventeen patients had a GTO score associated with >75% probability of mortality. Of those 17 patients, four retained a full code status.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis demonstrates that the GTO score is a validated measure in a rural setting and can be an easily calculated metric to help determine a geriatric patient's probability of mortality following a trauma. The results of our study also found that GTO score can be used to inform goals of care discussions with patients.

Assessing Futile Trauma Transfers in Rural Appalachia Following a Regional Health Care System Consolidation

This study sought to define and analyze rates of futile trauma transfers (FTTs) after the consolidation of two rural level 1 trauma centers into one. Data was extracted from the regional trauma registry for a period of 5 years (2017-2022) for all trauma patients transferred into our level 1 trauma center (n = 3369). An FTT was defined as a transfer that (1) received no major interventions and (2) died or was discharged to a hospice facility within 72 hours. Out of the 3369 transfer patients analyzed during the 33-month pre-consolidation and 33-month post-consolidation periods, 34 patients met the criteria of an FTT within the transfer-to-discharge window. The pre-consolidation category contained 12, and the post-consolidation category contained 22. Chi-square analysis indicated no significant difference in FTT rate between categories. Furthermore, the post-consolidation FTT rate of 1.1% remained consistent with the estimated national average of 1.5%.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on interhospital transfer of patients with major trauma in Korea: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Interhospital transfer (IHT) is necessary for providing ultimate care in the current emergency care system, particularly for patients with severe trauma. However, studies on IHT during the pandemic were limited. Furthermore, evidence on the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on IHT among patients with major trauma was lacking.

METHOD

This retrospective cohort study was conducted in an urban trauma center (TC) of a tertiary academic affiliated hospital in Daegu, Korea. The COVID-19 period was defined as from February 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021, whereas the pre-COVID-19 period was defined as the same duration of preceding span. Clinical data collected in each period were compared. We hypothesized that the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted IHT.

RESULTS

A total of 2,100 individual patients were included for analysis. During the pandemic, the total number of IHTs decreased from 1,317 to 783 (- 40.5%). Patients were younger (median age, 63 [45-77] vs. 61[44-74] years, p = 0.038), and occupational injury was significantly higher during the pandemic (11.6% vs. 15.7%, p = 0.025). The trauma team activation (TTA) ratio was higher during the pandemic both on major trauma (57.3% vs. 69.6%, p = 0.006) and the total patient cohort (22.2% vs. 30.5%, p < 0.001). In the COVID-19 period, duration from incidence to the TC was longer (218 [158-480] vs. 263[180-674] minutes, p = 0.021), and secondary transfer was lower (2.5% vs. 0.0%, p = 0.025).

CONCLUSION

We observed that the total number of IHTs to the TC was reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, TTA was more frequent, particularly among patients with major trauma. Patients with severe injury experienced longer duration from incident to the TC and lesser secondary transfer from the TC during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Vision Transformer-based Decision Support for Neurosurgical Intervention in Acute Traumatic Brain Injury: Automated Surgical Intervention Support Tool

Purpose To develop an automated triage tool to predict neurosurgical intervention for patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Materials and Methods A provincial trauma registry was reviewed to retrospectively identify patients with TBI from 2005 to 2022 treated at a specialized Canadian trauma center. Model training, validation, and testing were performed using head CT scans with binary reference standard patient-level labels corresponding to whether the patient received neurosurgical intervention. Performance and accuracy of the model, the Automated Surgical Intervention Support Tool for TBI (ASIST-TBI), were also assessed using a held-out consecutive test set of all patients with TBI presenting to the center between March 2021 and September 2022. Results Head CT scans from 2806 patients with TBI (mean age, 57 years ± 22 [SD]; 1955 [70%] men) were acquired between 2005 and 2021 and used for training, validation, and testing. Consecutive scans from an additional 612 patients (mean age, 61 years ± 22; 443 [72%] men) were used to assess the performance of ASIST-TBI. There was accurate prediction of neurosurgical intervention with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88, 0.94), accuracy of 87% (491 of 562), sensitivity of 87% (196 of 225), and specificity of 88% (295 of 337) on the test dataset. Performance on the held-out test dataset remained robust with an AUC of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.91), accuracy of 84% (517 of 612), sensitivity of 85% (199 of 235), and specificity of 84% (318 of 377). Conclusion A novel deep learning model was developed that could accurately predict the requirement for neurosurgical intervention using acute TBI CT scans. Keywords: CT, Brain/Brain Stem, Surgery, Trauma, Prognosis, Classification, Application Domain, Traumatic Brain Injury, Triage, Machine Learning, Decision Support Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2024 See also commentary by Haller in this issue.

Association between prehospital physician clinical experience and discharge at scene - retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Clinical experience has been shown to affect many patient-related outcomes but its impact in the prehospital setting has been little studied.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether rates of discharge at scene, handover to paramedics and supervision are associated with clinical experience.

DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective study, performed on all prehospital interventions carried out by physicians working in a mobile medical unit ("service mobile d'urgence et de réanimationˮ [SMUR]) at Geneva University Hospitals between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019. The main exclusion criteria were phone consultations and major incidents with multiple casualties.

EXPOSURE

The exposure was the clinical experience of the prehospital physician at the time of the intervention, in number of years since graduation.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS

The main outcome was the rate of discharge at scene. Secondary outcomes were the rate of handover to paramedics and the need for senior supervision. Outcomes were tabulated and multilevel logistic regression was performed to take into account the cluster effect of physicians.

RESULTS

In total, 48,368 adult patients were included in the analysis. The interventions were performed by 219 different physicians, most of whom were male (53.9%) and had graduated in Switzerland (82.7%). At the time of intervention, mean (standard deviation [SD]) level of experience was 5.2 (3.3) years and the median was 4.6 (interquartile range [IQR]: 3.4-6.0). The overall discharge at scene rate was 7.8% with no association between clinical experience and discharge at scene rate. Greater experience was associated with a higher rate of handover to paramedics (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-1.21) and less supervision (aOR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.82-0.88).

CONCLUSION

In this retrospective study, there was no association between level of experience and overall rate of discharge at scene. However, greater clinical experience was associated with higher rates of handover to paramedics and less supervision.

Trauma - It is a party, but is everyone invited? A single center retrospective analysis of trauma patients at risk for early discharge after transfer

BACKGROUND

Transferred trauma patients frequently are discharged after short stays without undergoing treatments. Strategies to decrease unnecessary transfers are needed.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients transferred to our level I center from 2019 to 2021. We identified patients discharged within 24 h without interventions and compared demographic, activation, injury, and mechanism of injury characteristics with patients requiring more care. A risk score was developed from these factors.

RESULTS

Of 2424 patients transferred, 463(19%) were discharged within 24 h. In an integer score, age (1 pt), Injury Severity Score (<6 = 5 pts, 7-9 = 2 pts), recreational mechanism (3 pts), no hypertension (1 pt), no diabetes (2 pts), no dementia (3 pts), chest (1 pt), external (4 pts), face (5 pts) and Head/neck trauma (2 pts) were associated with early discharge. The score stratified risk of early discharge from 4.8% (score <7) to 67% (score >15).

CONCLUSION

When prospectively validated the risk score may identify patients who can be managed without transfer.

Futility in acute care surgery: first do no harm

The consequences of the delivery of futile or potentially ineffective medical care and interventions are devastating on the healthcare system, our patients and their families, and healthcare providers. In emergency situations in particular, determining if escalating invasive interventions will benefit a frail and/or severely critically ill patient can be exceedingly difficult. In this review, our objective is to define the problem of potentially ineffective care within the specialty of acute care surgery and describe strategies for improving the care of our patients in these difficult situations.

Care pathways and factors associated with interhospital transfer to neurotrauma centers for patients with isolated moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury: a population-based study from the Norwegian trauma registry

BACKGROUND

Systems ensuring continuity of care through the treatment chain improve outcomes for traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients. Non-neurosurgical acute care trauma hospitals are central in providing care continuity in current trauma systems, however, their role in TBI management is understudied. This study aimed to investigate characteristics and care pathways and identify factors associated with interhospital transfer to neurotrauma centers for patients with isolated moderate-to-severe TBI primarily admitted to acute care trauma hospitals.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study from the national Norwegian Trauma Registry (2015-2020) of adult patients (≥ 16 years) with isolated moderate-to-severe TBI (Abbreviated Injury Scale [AIS] Head ≥ 3, AIS Body < 3 and maximum 1 AIS Body = 2). Patient characteristics and care pathways were compared across transfer status strata. A generalized additive model was developed using purposeful selection to identify factors associated with transfer and how they affected transfer probability.

RESULTS

The study included 1735 patients admitted to acute care trauma hospitals, of whom 692 (40%) were transferred to neurotrauma centers. Transferred patients were younger (median 60 vs. 72 years, P < 0.001), more severely injured (median New Injury Severity Score [NISS]: 29 vs. 17, P < 0.001), and had lower admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores (≤ 13: 55% vs. 27, P < 0.001). Increased transfer probability was significantly associated with reduced GCS scores, comorbidity in patients < 77 years, and increasing NISSs until the effect was inverted at higher scores. Decreased transfer probability was significantly associated with increasing age and comorbidity, and distance between the acute care trauma hospital and the nearest neurotrauma center, except for extreme NISSs.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute care trauma hospitals managed a substantial burden of isolated moderate-to-severe TBI patients primarily and definitively, highlighting the importance of high-quality neurotrauma care in non-neurosurgical hospitals. The transfer probability declined with increasing age and comorbidity, suggesting that older patients were carefully selected for transfer to specialized care.

A multicenter evaluation on the impact of non-therapeutic transfer in rural trauma

INTRODUCTION

Trauma transfers are a common occurrence in rural areas, where critical access and lower-level trauma centers routinely transfer to tertiary care centers for specialized care. Transfers are non-therapeutic (NTT) when no specialist intervention occurs, leading to transfer that were futile (FT) or secondary overtriage (SOT). This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of NTT among four trauma centers providing care to rural Appalachia.

METHODS

This retrospective review was performed at four, ACS verified, Level 1 trauma centers. All adult trauma patients, transferred during 2018 were included for analysis. Transfers were considered futile if in <48 h the patient died or was discharged to hospice, without operative intervention. SOT transfers were discharged in <48 h, without major intervention, with an ISS< 15. Cost analysis was performed to describe the impact of NTT on EMS use.

RESULTS

4,189 patients were analyzed during the study period. 105 (2.5%) met criteria for futility. Futile patients had a median ISS of 25 (IQR 9-26), and 48% had an AIS head ≥4. These were significantly greater (p<0.001) than non-futile transfers, median ISS 5 (IQR 2-9), 3% severe head injury. SOT occurred in 1371 (33%), median ISS of 5, and lower AIS scores by region. Isolated facial injuries resulted in 165 transfers. 13% of FT+SOT were admitted to the ICU. Only 22% of FT+SOT came from a trauma center. 68% were transported by ALS and 13% transported by air transport. FT+SOT traveled on average 70 miles from their home to receive care.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-therapeutic transfers account for more than 1/3 of transfers in this rural environment. There was a significant use of advanced life support and aeromedical transport. The utility of these transfers should be questioned. With the recent increases in telehealth there is an opportunity for trauma systems to improve regional care and decrease transfers for futile cases.

Evaluation of factors associated with interhospital transfers to pediatric and adult tertiary level of care: A study of acute neurological disease cases

INTRODUCTION

Patient referrals to tertiary level of care neurological services are often potentially avoidable and result in inferior clinical outcomes. To decrease transfer burden, stakeholders should acquire a comprehensive perception of specialty referral process dynamics. We identified associations between patient sociodemographic data, disease category and hospital characteristics and avoidable transfers, and differentiated factors underscoring informed decision making as essential care management aspects.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We completed a retrospective observational study. The inclusion criteria were pediatric and adult patients with neurological diagnosis referred to our tertiary care hospital. The primary outcome was potentially avoidable transfers, which included patients discharged after 24 hours from admission without requiring neurosurgery, neuro-intervention, or specialized diagnostic methodologies and consult in non-neurologic specialties during their hospital stay. Variables included demographics, disease category, health insurance and referring hospital characteristics.

RESULTS

Patient referrals resulted in 1615 potentially avoidable transfers. A direct correlation between increasing referral trends and unwarranted transfers was observed for dementia, spondylosis and trauma conversely, migraine, neuro-ophthalmic disease and seizure disorders showed an increase in unwarranted transfers with decreasing referral trends. The age group over 90 years (OR, 3.71), seizure disorders (OR, 4.16), migraine (OR, 12.50) and neuro-ophthalmic disease (OR, 25.31) significantly associated with higher probability of avoidable transfers. Disparities between pediatric and adult transfer cases were identified for discrete diagnoses. Hospital teaching status but not hospital size showed significant associations with potentially avoidable transfers.

CONCLUSIONS

Neurological dysfunctions with overlapping clinical symptomatology in ageing patients have higher probability of unwarranted transfers. In pediatric patients, disease categories with complex symptomatology requiring sophisticated workup show greater likelihood of unwarranted transfers. Future transfer avoidance recommendations include implementation of measures that assist astute disorder assessment at the referring hospital such as specialized diagnostic modalities and teleconsultation. Additional moderators include after-hours specialty expertise provision and advanced directives education.

Frequency and Predictors of Trauma Transfer Futility to a Rural Level I Trauma Center

INTRODUCTION

Transfer of trauma patients whose injuries are deemed unsurvivable, often results in early death or transition to comfort care and could be considered misuse of health care resources. This is particularly true where tertiary care resources are limited. Identifying riskfactors for and predicting futile transfers could reduce this impact and help to optimize triage and management.

METHODS

A retrospective study of interfacility trauma transfers to a single rural Level I rauma center from 2014 to 2019. Futility was defined as death, hospice, or declaration of comfort measures within 48 h of transfer without procedural or radiographic intervention at the accepting center. Multiple logistic regressions identified independent predictors of futile transfers. The predictive power of Mechanism,Glasgow coma scale, Age, and Arterial pressure (MGAP), an injury severity score based on Mechanism, Glasgow coma scale, Age, and systolic blood Pressure, were evaluated.

RESULTS

Of the 3368 trauma transfers, 37 (1.1%) met criteria as futile. Futile transfers occurred among patients who were significantly older with falls as the most common mechanism. Age, Glasgow coma scale, systolic blood Pressure and Injury Severity Score were significant (P < 0.05) independent predictors of futile transfer. MGAP had a high predictive power area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC 0.864, 95% confidence interval 0.803-0.925) for futility.

CONCLUSIONS

A small proportion (1.1%) of transfers to a rural Level I trauma center met criteria for futility. Predictive tools, such as MGAP scoring, can provide objective criteria for evaluation of transfer necessity and prompt care pathways that involve pre-transfer communications, telemedicine, and/or patient centered goals of care discussions. Such tools could be used in conjunction with a more granular assessment regarding potential operational barriers to reduce futile transfers and to enhance optimization of resource utilization in low-resource service areas.