Nudging the Organ Discard Problem

The utility of machine learning for predicting donor discard in abdominal transplantation

BACKGROUND

Increasing access and better allocation of organs in the field of transplantation is a critical problem in clinical care. Limitations exist in accurately predicting allograft discard. Potential exists for machine learning to provide a balanced assessment of the potential for an organ to be used in a transplantation procedure.

METHODS

We accessed and utilized all available deceased donor United Network for Organ Sharing data from 1987 to 2020. With these data, we evaluated the performance of multiple machine learning methods for predicting organ use. The machine learning methods trialed included XGBoost, random forest, Naïve Bayes (NB), logistic regression, and fully connected feedforward neural network classifier methods. The top two methods, XGBoost and random forest, were fully developed using 10-fold cross-validation and Bayesian optimization of hyperparameters.

RESULTS

The top performing model at predicting liver organ use was an XGBoost model which achieved an AUC-ROC of .925, an AUC-PR of .868, and an F1 statistic of .756. The top performing model for predicting kidney organ use classification was an XGBoost model which achieved an AUC-ROC of .952, and AUC-PR of .883, and an F1 statistic of .786.

CONCLUSIONS

The XGBoost method demonstrated a significant improvement in predicting donor allograft discard for both kidney and livers in solid organ transplantation procedures. Machine learning methods are well suited to be incorporated into the clinical workflow; they can provide robust quantitative predictions and meaningful data insights for clinician consideration and transplantation decision-making.

Declined Organs for Liver Transplantation: A Right Decision or a Missed Opportunity for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma?

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation is the only promising treatment for end-stage liver disease and patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. However, too many organs are rejected for transplantation.

METHODS

We analyzed the factors involved in organ allocation in our transplant center and reviewed all livers that were declined for transplantation. Reasons for declining organs for transplantation were categorized as major extended donor criteria (maEDC), size mismatch and vascular problems, medical reasons and risk of disease transmission, and other reasons. The fate of the declined organs was analyzed.

RESULTS

1086 declined organs were offered 1200 times. A total of 31% of the livers were declined because of maEDC, 35.5% because of size mismatch and vascular problems, 15.8% because of medical reasons and risk of disease transmission, and 20.7% because of other reasons. A total of 40% of the declined organs were allocated and transplanted. A total of 50% of the organs were completely discarded, and significantly more of these grafts had maEDC than grafts that were eventually allocated (37.5% vs. 17.7%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Most organs were declined because of poor organ quality. Donor-recipient matching at time of allocation and organ preservation must be improved by allocating maEDC grafts using individualized algorithms that avoid high-risk donor-recipient combinations and unnecessary organ declination.

Time to discard the term "discard"

The 2022 Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients Consensus Conference "People Driven Transplant Metrics" offered an opportunity for a diverse group of stakeholders in the solid organ transplant community to exchange ideas about what information and metrics are important to different stakeholders. Participating patients and family members called on the transplant community to cease using the term "discards" to refer to donated organs that are not transplanted.

Risk Aversion, Organ Utilization and Changing Behavior

Improving organ acceptance and utilization rates is critical to ensure we maximize usage of donated organs as a scarce resource. Many factors underlie unnecessary discard of viable organs. Declined transplantation opportunities for candidates is associated with increased wait-list mortality. Technological advancements in organ preservation may help bridge the gap between donation and utilization, but an overlooked obstacle is the practice of risk aversion by transplant professionals when decision-making under risk. Lessons from behavioral economics, where experimental work has outlined the impact of loss or risk aversion on decision-making, have not been translated to transplantation. Many external factors can influence decision-making when accepting or utilizing organs, which are potentially amendable if external conditions are improved. However, attitudes and perceptions to risk for transplant professionals can pervade decision-making and influence behaviour. If we wish to change this behavior, then the underlying nature of decision-making under risk when accepting or utilizing organs must be studied to facilitate the design of targeted behavior change interventions to convert risk aversion to risk tolerance. To ensure optimal use of donated organs, we need more research into decision-making under risk.

The use of marginal kidneys in dual kidney transplantation to expand kidney graft utilization

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review is to chronicle the history of dual kidney transplantation (DKT) and identify opportunities to improve utilization of marginal deceased donor (MDD) kidneys through DKT.

RECENT FINDINGS

The practice of DKT from adult MDDs dates back to the mid-1990s, at which time the primary indication was projected insufficient nephron mass from older donors. Multiple subsequent studies of short- and long-term success have been reported focusing on three major aspects: Identifying appropriate selection criteria/scoring systems based on pre- and postdonation factors; refining technical aspects; and analyzing longer-term outcomes. The number of adult DKTs performed in the United States has declined in the past decade and only about 60 are performed annually. For adult deceased donor kidneys meeting double allocation criteria, >60% are ultimately not transplanted. MDDs with limited renal functional capacity represent a large proportion of potential kidneys doomed to either discard or nonrecovery.

SUMMARY

DKT may reduce organ discard and optimize the use of kidneys from MDDs. New and innovative technologies targeting ex vivo organ assessment, repair, and regeneration may have a major impact on the decision whether or not to use recovered kidneys for single or DKT.

Dual kidney transplants from adult marginal donors: Review and perspective

The practice of dual kidney transplantation (DKT) from adult marginal deceased donors (MDDs) dates back to the mid-1990s with initial pioneering experiences reported by the Stanford and Maryland groups, at which time the primary indication was estimated insufficient nephron mass from older donors. Multiple subsequent studies of short and long-term success have been reported focusing on three major aspects of DKT: Identifying appropriate selection criteria and developing scoring systems based on pre- and post-donation factors; refining technical aspects; and analyzing mid-term outcomes. The number of adult DKTs performed in the United States has declined in the past decade and only about 60 are performed annually. For adult deceased donor kidneys meeting double allocation criteria, >60% are ultimately not transplanted. Deceased donors with limited renal functional capacity represent a large proportion of potential kidneys doomed to either discard or non-recovery. However, DKT may reduce organ discard and optimize the use of kidneys from MDDs. In an attempt to promote utilization of MDD kidneys, the United Network for Organ Sharing introduced new allocation guidelines pursuant to DKT in 2019. The purpose of this review is to chronicle the history of DKT and identify opportunities to improve utilization of MDD kidneys through DKT. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Prospective Validation of Prediction Model for Kidney Discard

BACKGROUND

Many kidneys are discarded every year, with 3631 kidneys discarded in 2016 alone. Identifying kidneys at high risk of discard could facilitate "rescue" allocation to centers more likely to transplant them. The Probability of Delay or Discard (PODD) model was developed to identify marginal kidneys at risk of discard or delayed allocation beyond 36 hours of cold ischemia time. However, PODD has not been prospectively validated, and patterns of discard may have changed after policy changes such as the introduction of Kidney Donor Profile Index and implementation of the Kidney Allocation System (KAS).

METHODS

We prospectively validated the PODD model using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data in the KAS era (January 1, 2015, to March 1, 2018). C statistic was calculated to assess accuracy in predicting kidney discard. We assessed clustering in centers' utilization of kidneys with PODD >0.6 ("high-PODD") using Gini coefficients. Using match run data from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2016, we examined distribution of these high-PODD kidneys offered to centers that never accepted a high-PODD kidney.

RESULTS

The PODD model predicted discard accurately under KAS (C-statistic, 0.87). Compared with utilization of low-PODD kidneys (Gini coefficient = 0.41), utilization of high-PODD kidneys was clustered more tightly among a few centers (Gini coefficient, 0.84 with >60% of centers never transplanted a high-PODD kidneys). In total, 11684 offers (35.0% of all high-PODD offers) were made to centers that never accepted a high-PODD kidney.

CONCLUSIONS

Prioritizing allocation of high-PODD kidneys to centers that are more likely to transplant them might help reduce kidney discard.

Infectious Disease Transmission in Solid Organ Transplantation: Donor Evaluation, Recipient Risk, and Outcomes of Transmission

In 2016, the Transplantation Society of Australia and New Zealand, with the support of the Australian Government Organ and Tissue authority, commissioned a literature review on the topic of infectious disease transmission from deceased donors to recipients of solid organ transplants. The purpose of this review was to synthesize evidence on transmission risks, diagnostic test characteristics, and recipient management to inform best-practice clinical guidelines. The final review, presented as a special supplement in Transplantation Direct, collates case reports of transmission events and other peer-reviewed literature, and summarizes current (as of June 2017) international guidelines on donor screening and recipient management. Of particular interest at the time of writing was how to maximize utilization of donors at increased risk for transmission of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, and hepatitis B virus, given the recent developments, including the availability of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus and improvements in donor screening technologies. The review also covers emerging risks associated with recent epidemics (eg, Zika virus) and the risk of transmission of nonendemic pathogens related to donor travel history or country of origin. Lastly, the implications for recipient consent of expanded utilization of donors at increased risk of blood-borne viral disease transmission are considered.