Indirect food web interactions mediated by predator-rodent dynamics: relative roles of lemmings and voles

Issues of under-representation in quantitative DNA metabarcoding weaken the inference about diet of the tundra vole Microtus oeconomus

During the last decade, methods based on high-throughput sequencing such as DNA metabarcoding have opened up for a range of new questions in animal dietary studies. One of the major advantages of dietary metabarcoding resides in the potential to infer a quantitative relationship between sequence read proportions and biomass of ingested food. However, this relationship's robustness is highly dependent on the system under study, calling for case-specific assessments. Herbivorous small rodents often play important roles in the ecosystem, and the use of DNA metabarcoding for analyses of rodent diets is increasing. However, there has been no direct validation of the quantitative reliability of DNA metabarcoding for small rodents. Therefore, we used an experimental approach to assess the relationship between input plant biomass and sequence reads proportions from DNA metabarcoding in the tundra vole Microtus oeconomus. We found a weakly positive relationship between the number of high-throughput DNA sequences and the expected biomass proportions of food plants. The weak relationship was possibly caused by a systematic under-amplification of one of the three plant taxa fed. Generally, our results add to the growing evidence that case-specific validation studies are required to reliably make use of sequence read abundance as a proxy of relative food proportions in the diet.

Common Vole as a Focal Small Mammal Species in Orchards of the Northern Zone

In 2018–2020, we performed a country-wide study of small mammals in commercial orchards and berry plantations with the aim of determining whether the common vole (Microtus arvalis) is a more suitable focal species than the field vole (M. agrestis) in the risk assessment of plant protection products in Lithuania (country of the Northern Zone). Common vole was present in 75% of orchards and in 80% of control habitats, accounting for 30% of all trapped individuals. The proportion of this species was stable between years and seasons. The pattern was in agreement with the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, i.e., highest in medium-aged crops, while lowest in habitats with high intensities of agricultural practices. The average relative abundance of common vole in autumn, 2.65 ± 0.52 individuals per 100 trap days, was three times higher than that in summer, with no differences recorded between crops and control habitats. Field vole was present in 30% of locations, only accounting for 2.1% of all trapped individuals. In central and eastern European countries, common vole is more widespread and abundant than field vole. In Lithuania, common vole dominates in orchards and natural habitats and is, therefore, the most relevant small mammal species for higher tier risk assessment.

End-user involvement to improve predictions and management of populations with complex dynamics and multiple drivers

Sustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species in Norway. Based on local knowledge of stakeholders, it was decided that the model should include food web interactions and climatic drivers to provide explanatory predictions. Modeling confirmed observations from stakeholders that climate change impacts Ptarmigan populations negatively through intensified outbreaks of insect defoliators and later onset of winter. Stakeholders also decided that the model should provide anticipatory predictions. The ability to forecast population density ahead of the harvest season was valued by the stakeholders as it provides the management extra time to consider appropriate harvest regulations and communicate with hunters prior to the hunting season. Overall, exploring potential drivers and predicting short-term future states, facilitate collaborative learning and refined data collection, monitoring designs, and management priorities. Our experience from adapting a SFP to a management target with inherently complex dynamics and drivers of environmental change, is that an open, flexible, and iterative process, rather than a rigid step-wise protocol, facilitates rapid learning, trust, and legitimacy.

Predator-mediated effects of severe drought associated with poor reproductive success of a seabird in a cross-ecosystem cascade

Despite the profound impacts of drought on terrestrial productivity in coastal arid ecosystems, only a few studies have addressed how drought can influence ecological cascades across ecosystem boundaries. In this study, we examine the consequences of rainfall pulses and drought that subsequently impact the breeding success of a threatened nocturnal seabird, the Scripps's Murrelet (Synthliboramphus scrippsi). On an island off the coast of southern California, the main cause of reduced nest success for one of their largest breeding colonies is egg predation by an endemic deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus elusus). Mice on the island have an opportunistic diet of primarily terrestrial sources, but drastic declines in terrestrial productivity from drought might be expected to increase their reliance on marine resources, including murrelet eggs. We compiled data on terrestrial and marine productivity between 1983 and 2013 to determine how conditions in these ecosystems influence murrelet nest success. We found that the severity of drought had the strongest negative impact on murrelet nest success. We calculated that the reduction in fecundity during drought years due to increased egg predation by mice was substantial enough to produce a declining population growth rate. Nest success was much higher under normal or high rainfall conditions, depending on whether oceanic conditions were favorable to murrelets. Therefore, the more frequent and severe drought that is projected for this region could lead to an increased risk of murrelet population decline on this island. Our study highlights the need for understanding how species interactions will change through the effects of increasing drought and altered rainfall regimes under global change.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation-driven rainfall pulse amplifies predation by owls on seabirds via apparent competition with mice

Most approaches for assessing species vulnerability to climate change have focused on direct impacts via abiotic changes rather than indirect impacts mediated by changes in species interactions. Changes in rainfall regimes may influence species interactions from the bottom-up by increasing primary productivity in arid environments, but subsequently lead to less predictable top-down effects. Our study demonstrates how the effects of an EL Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven rainfall pulse ricochets along a chain of interactions between marine and terrestrial food webs, leading to enhanced predation of a vulnerable marine predator on its island breeding grounds. On Santa Barbara Island, barn owls (Tyto alba) are the main predator of a nocturnal seabird, the Scripps's murrelet (Synthliboramphus scrippsi), as well as an endemic deer mouse. We followed the links between rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index and subsequent peaks in mouse and owl abundance. After the mouse population declined steeply, there was approximately 15-fold increase in the number of murrelets killed by owls. We also simulated these dynamics with a mathematical model and demonstrate that bottom-up resource pulses can lead to subsequent declines in alternative prey. Our study highlights the need for understanding how species interactions will change with shifting rainfall patterns through the effects of ENSO under global change.

Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances

Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak. There was a distinct difference in model transferability between seasons. Summer dynamics had good temporal transferability, displaying ecological models' potential to be temporally transferable. However, the winter dynamics transferred poorly. This discrepancy is likely due to a temporal inconsistency in the ability of the climate predictor (i.e. elevation) to reflect the winter conditions affecting lemmings both directly and indirectly. We conclude that there is an urgent need for data and models that yield better predictions of winter processes, in particular in face of the expected rapid climate change in the Arctic.

Transferability of biotic interactions: Temporal consistency of arctic plant-rodent relationships is poor

Variability in biotic interaction strength is an integral part of food web functioning. However, the consequences of the spatial and temporal variability of biotic interactions are poorly known, in particular for predicting species abundance and distribution. The amplitude of rodent population cycles (i.e., peak-phase abundances) has been hypothesized to be determined by vegetation properties in tundra ecosystems. We assessed the spatial and temporal predictability of food and shelter plants effects on peak-phase small rodent abundance during two consecutive rodent population peaks. Rodent abundance was related to both food and shelter biomass during the first peak, and spatial transferability was mostly good. Yet, the temporal transferability of our models to the next population peak was poorer. Plant-rodent interactions are thus temporally variable and likely more complex than simple one-directional (bottom-up) relationships or variably overruled by other biotic interactions and abiotic factors. We propose that parametrizing a more complete set of functional links within food webs across abiotic and biotic contexts would improve transferability of biotic interaction models. Such attempts are currently constrained by the lack of data with replicated estimates of key players in food webs. Enhanced collaboration between researchers whose main research interests lay in different parts of the food web could ameliorate this.

Generalist predator, cyclic voles and cavity nests: testing the alternative prey hypothesis

The alternative prey hypothesis (APH) states that when the density of the main prey declines, generalist predators switch to alternative prey and vice versa, meaning that predation pressure on the alternative prey should be negatively correlated with the density of the main prey. We tested the APH in a system comprising one generalist predator (pine marten, Martes martes), cyclic main prey (microtine voles, Microtus agrestis and Myodes glareolus) and alternative prey (cavity nests of common goldeneye, Bucephala clangula); pine marten is an important predator of both voles and common goldeneye nests. Specifically, we studied whether annual predation rate of real common goldeneye nests and experimental nests is negatively associated with fluctuation in the density of voles in four study areas in southern Finland in 2000-2011. Both vole density and nest predation rate varied considerably between years in all study areas. However, we did not find support for the hypothesis that vole dynamics indirectly affects predation rate of cavity nests in the way predicted by the APH. On the contrary, the probability of predation increased with vole spring abundance for both real and experimental nests. Furthermore, a crash in vole abundance from previous autumn to spring did not increase the probability of predation of real nests, although it increased that of experimental nests. We suggest that learned predation by pine marten individuals, coupled with efficient search image for cavities, overrides possible indirect positive effects of high vole density on the alternative prey in our study system.

Complete mitochondrial genome of the gray red-backed vole (Myodes rufocanus) and a complete estimate of the phylogenetic relationships in Cricetidae

Myodes rufocanus belongs to the genera Myodes within the subfamily Cricetidae, its complete mitochondrial genome is 16 487 bp in length, containing 12S rRNA gene, 16S rRNA gene, 22 tRNA genes, 13 protein-coding genes and 1 control region as other Cricetidae species. Results of phylogenetic analysis showed that Myodes had close relationship with Eothenomys, and had distant relationship with Microtus, Cricetulus, Wiedomys, Akodon and other genera. This study verifies the evolutionary status of Myodes rufocanus in Myodes at the molecular level. The mitochondrial genome would be a significant supplement for the M. rufocanus genetic background analysis and experimental animalization.

Isotopic partitioning by small mammals in the subnivium

In the Arctic, food limitation is one of the driving factors behind small mammal population fluctuations. Active throughout the year, voles and lemmings (arvicoline rodents) are central prey in arctic food webs. Snow cover, however, makes the estimation of their winter diet challenging. We analyzed the isotopic composition of ever‐growing incisors from species of voles and lemmings in northern Finland trapped in the spring and autumn. We found that resources appear to be reasonably partitioned and largely congruent with phylogeny. Our results reveal that winter resource use can be inferred from the tooth isotopic composition of rodents sampled in the spring, when trapping can be conducted, and that resources appear to be partitioned via competition under the snow.