Extinction rates in tumour public goods games

The impact of consumer preferences on the evolution of competition in China's automobile market under the Dual Credit Policy-A density game based perspective

The evolution of the automobile market is a macro-expression of the behavior of automakers' production decisions. This study examines the competitive environment between new energy vehicles (NEVs) and conventional fuel vehicles (CFVs) and develops a game-theoretical model incorporating consumer utility, automaker profit, and the competitive density of NEVs and CFVs. It aims to assess how consumers' preferences for vehicle range and smart features influence automakers' strategic decisions and the broader market evolution under the Dual Credit Policy. The findings indicate: (1) A low NEV credit price facilitates NEV market size growth, but this growth rate diminishes beyond a certain price threshold; (2) The lower the consumer's range preference, the higher NEV credit price can accelerate the development of new energy vehicles to their saturation value. However, when consumers in the market prioritize smart features, increasing the NEV credit price does not significantly influence the growth of NEV market size. (3) Higher consumer preferences for both range and smart features, combined with increased NEV credit prices, can synergistically accelerate the speed of the NEV market to reach the saturation value and also raise the saturation value of the scale of NEVs. And higher consumer range preference combined with increased NEV credit prices has a more significant effect on the promotion of NEV market size than the combined effect of higher consumer smart preference and increased NEV credit prices. The actual data of China's automobile market is used in the simulation of this model. The model and its simulation results effectively explain and reveal the evolutionary impacts of consumers' range and smart feature preference on the promotion of China's NEVs under the Dual Credit Policy to provide effective technological and theoretical support for the promotion of the sustainable development of China's NEV industry.

Stroma-Mediated Breast Cancer Cell Proliferation Indirectly Drives Chemoresistance by Accelerating Tumor Recovery between Chemotherapy Cycles

The ability of tumors to survive therapy reflects both cell-intrinsic and microenvironmental mechanisms. Across many cancers, including triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), a high stroma/tumor ratio correlates with poor survival. In many contexts, this correlation can be explained by the direct reduction of therapy sensitivity induced by stroma-produced paracrine factors. We sought to explore whether this direct effect contributes to the link between stroma and poor responses to chemotherapies. In vitro studies with panels of TNBC cell line models and stromal isolates failed to detect a direct modulation of chemoresistance. At the same time, consistent with prior studies, fibroblast-produced secreted factors stimulated treatment-independent enhancement of tumor cell proliferation. Spatial analyses indicated that proximity to stroma is often associated with enhanced tumor cell proliferation in vivo. These observations suggested an indirect link between stroma and chemoresistance, where stroma-augmented proliferation potentiates the recovery of residual tumors between chemotherapy cycles. To evaluate this hypothesis, a spatial agent-based model of stroma impact on proliferation/death dynamics was developed that was quantitatively parameterized using inferences from histologic analyses and experimental studies. The model demonstrated that the observed enhancement of tumor cell proliferation within stroma-proximal niches could enable tumors to avoid elimination over multiple chemotherapy cycles. Therefore, this study supports the existence of an indirect mechanism of environment-mediated chemoresistance that might contribute to the negative correlation between stromal content and poor therapy outcomes.

SIGNIFICANCE

Integration of experimental research with mathematical modeling reveals an indirect microenvironmental chemoresistance mechanism by which stromal cells stimulate breast cancer cell proliferation and highlights the importance of consideration of proliferation/death dynamics. See related commentary by Wall and Echeverria, p. 3667.

Paracrine enhancement of tumor cell proliferation provides indirect stroma-mediated chemoresistance via acceleration of tumor recovery between chemotherapy cycles

The ability of tumors to survive therapy is mediated not only by cell-intrinsic but also cell-extrinsic, microenvironmental mechanisms. Across many cancers, including triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), a high stroma/tumor ratio correlates with poor survival. In many contexts, this correlation can be explained by the direct reduction of therapy sensitivity by stroma-produced paracrine factors through activating pro-survival signaling and stemness. We sought to explore whether this direct effect contributes to the link between stroma and poor responses to chemotherapies in TNBC. Our in vitro studies with panels of TNBC cell line models and stromal isolates failed to detect a direct modulation of chemoresistance. However, we found that fibroblasts often enhance baseline tumor cell proliferation. Consistent with this in vitro observation, we found evidence of stroma-enhanced TNBC cell proliferation in vivo , in xenograft models and patient samples. Based on these observations, we hypothesized an indirect link between stroma and chemoresistance, where stroma-augmented proliferation potentiates the recovery of residual tumors between chemotherapy cycles. To test this hypothesis, we developed a spatial agent-based model of tumor response to repeated dosing of chemotherapy. The model was quantitatively parameterized from histological analyses and experimental studies. We found that even a slight enhancement of tumor cell proliferation within stroma-proximal niches can strongly enhance the ability of tumors to survive multiple cycles of chemotherapy under biologically and clinically feasible parameters. In summary, our study uncovered a novel, indirect mechanism of chemoresistance. Further, our study highlights the limitations of short-term cytotoxicity assays in understanding chemotherapy responses and supports the integration of experimental and in silico modeling.

The role of evolutionary game theory in spatial and non-spatial models of the survival of cooperation in cancer: a review

Evolutionary game theory (EGT) is a branch of mathematics which considers populations of individuals interacting with each other to receive pay-offs. An individual’s pay-off is dependent on the strategy of its opponent(s) as well as on its own, and the higher its pay-off, the higher its reproductive fitness. Its offspring generally inherit its interaction strategy, subject to random mutation. Over time, the composition of the population shifts as different strategies spread or are driven extinct. In the last 25 years there has been a flood of interest in applying EGT to cancer modelling, with the aim of explaining how cancerous mutations spread through healthy tissue and how intercellular cooperation persists in tumour-cell populations. This review traces this body of work from theoretical analyses of well-mixed infinite populations through to more realistic spatial models of the development of cooperation between epithelial cells. We also consider work in which EGT has been used to make experimental predictions about the evolution of cancer, and discuss work that remains to be done before EGT can make large-scale contributions to clinical treatment and patient outcomes.

Measuring competitive exclusion in non-small cell lung cancer

In this study, we experimentally measure the frequency-dependent interactions between a gefitinib-resistant non-small cell lung cancer population and its sensitive ancestor via the evolutionary game assay. We show that cost of resistance is insufficient to accurately predict competitive exclusion and that frequency-dependent growth rate measurements are required. Using frequency-dependent growth rate data, we then show that gefitinib treatment results in competitive exclusion of the ancestor, while the absence of treatment results in a likely, but not guaranteed, exclusion of the resistant strain. Then, using simulations, we demonstrate that incorporating ecological growth effects can influence the predicted extinction time. In addition, we show that higher drug concentrations may not lead to the optimal reduction in tumor burden. Together, these results highlight the potential importance of frequency-dependent growth rate data for understanding competing populations, both in the laboratory and as we translate adaptive therapy regimens to the clinic.

Weak Selection and the Separation of Eco-evo Time Scales using Perturbation Analysis

We show that under the assumption of weak frequency-dependent selection a wide class of population dynamical models can be analysed using perturbation theory. The inner solution corresponds to the ecological dynamics, where to zeroth order, the genotype frequencies remain constant. The outer solution provides the evolutionary dynamics and corresponds, to zeroth order, to a generalisation of the replicator equation. We apply this method to a model of public goods dynamics and construct, using matched asymptotic expansions, a composite solution valid for all times. We also analyse a Lotka-Volterra model of predator competition and show that to zeroth order the fraction of wild-type predators follows a replicator equation with a constant selection coefficient given by the predator death rate. For both models, we investigate how the error between approximate solutions and the solution to the full model depend on the order of the approximation and show using numerical comparison, for [Formula: see text] and 2, that the error scales according to [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] is the strength of selection and k is the order of the approximation.

Autocrine signaling can explain the emergence of Allee effects in cancer cell populations

In many human cancers, the rate of cell growth depends crucially on the size of the tumor cell population. Low, zero, or negative growth at low population densities is known as the Allee effect; this effect has been studied extensively in ecology, but so far lacks a good explanation in the cancer setting. Here, we formulate and analyze an individual-based model of cancer, in which cell division rates are increased by the local concentration of an autocrine growth factor produced by the cancer cells themselves. We show, analytically and by simulation, that autocrine signaling suffices to cause both strong and weak Allee effects. Whether low cell densities lead to negative (strong effect) or reduced (weak effect) growth rate depends directly on the ratio of cell death to proliferation, and indirectly on cellular dispersal. Our model is consistent with experimental observations from three patient-derived brain tumor cell lines grown at different densities. We propose that further studying and quantifying population-wide feedback, impacting cell growth, will be central for advancing our understanding of cancer dynamics and treatment, potentially exploiting Allee effects for therapy.

A common feature of tumor growth is the production, by the cancer cells themselves, of hormones known as growth factors that increase the rate of cell division. This type of signalling makes the growth rate of the tumor depend on the population size in a non-linear manner, and the growth rate might become low or negative for small population sizes. This is known as the Allee effect which has been studied extensively in ecology. We have developed a computational model that can explain the Allee effect in terms of growth factor signalling, and show by mathematical analysis of the model that the magnitude of the Allee effect depends on the ratio of cell death to proliferation, as well as the properties of the growth factor. In addition we show that the model is consistent with experimental observations from three different cell lines derived from the brain tumor glioblastoma. Our findings indicate that the Allee effect can be exploited in order to improve the treatment of glioblastoma patients.

The Contribution of Evolutionary Game Theory to Understanding and Treating Cancer

Evolutionary game theory mathematically conceptualizes and analyzes biological interactions where one's fitness not only depends on one's own traits, but also on the traits of others. Typically, the individuals are not overtly rational and do not select, but rather inherit their traits. Cancer can be framed as such an evolutionary game, as it is composed of cells of heterogeneous types undergoing frequency-dependent selection. In this article, we first summarize existing works where evolutionary game theory has been employed in modeling cancer and improving its treatment. Some of these game-theoretic models suggest how one could anticipate and steer cancer's eco-evolutionary dynamics into states more desirable for the patient via evolutionary therapies. Such therapies offer great promise for increasing patient survival and decreasing drug toxicity, as demonstrated by some recent studies and clinical trials. We discuss clinical relevance of the existing game-theoretic models of cancer and its treatment, and opportunities for future applications. Moreover, we discuss the developments in cancer biology that are needed to better utilize the full potential of game-theoretic models. Ultimately, we demonstrate that viewing tumors with evolutionary game theory has medically useful implications that can inform and create a lockstep between empirical findings and mathematical modeling. We suggest that cancer progression is an evolutionary competition between different cell types and therefore needs to be viewed as an evolutionary game.

Cooperative success in epithelial public goods games

Cancer cells obtain mutations which rely on the production of diffusible growth factors to confer a fitness benefit. These mutations can be considered cooperative, and studied as public goods games within the framework of evolutionary game theory. The population structure, benefit function and update rule all influence the evolutionary success of cooperators. We model the evolution of cooperation in epithelial cells using the Voronoi tessellation model. Unlike traditional evolutionary graph theory, this allows us to implement global updating, for which birth and death events are spatially decoupled. We compare, for a sigmoid benefit function, the conditions for cooperation to be favoured and/or beneficial for well-mixed and structured populations. We find that when population structure is combined with global updating, cooperation is more successful than if there were local updating or the population were well-mixed. Interestingly, the qualitative behaviour for the well-mixed population and the Voronoi tessellation model is remarkably similar, but the latter case requires significantly lower incentives to ensure cooperation.

Senescence-Induced Chemoresistance in Triple Negative Breast Cancer and Evolution-Based Treatment Strategies

Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is classically treated with combination chemotherapies. Although, initially responsive to chemotherapies, TNBC patients frequently develop drug-resistant, metastatic disease. Chemotherapy resistance can develop through many mechanisms, including induction of a transient growth-arrested state, known as the therapy-induced senescence (TIS). In this paper, we will focus on chemoresistance in TNBC due to TIS. One of the key characteristics of senescent cells is a complex secretory phenotype, known as the senescence-associated secretory proteome (SASP), which by prompting immune-mediated clearance of senescent cells maintains tissue homeostasis and suppresses tumorigenesis. However, in cancer, particularly with TIS, senescent cells themselves as well as SASP promote cellular reprograming into a stem-like state responsible for the emergence of drug-resistant, aggressive clones. In addition to chemotherapies, outcomes of recently approved immune and DNA damage-response (DDR)-directed therapies are also affected by TIS, implying that this a common strategy used by cancer cells for evading treatment. Although there has been an explosion of scientific research for manipulating TIS for prevention of drug resistance, much of it is still at the pre-clinical stage. From an evolutionary perspective, cancer is driven by natural selection, wherein the fittest tumor cells survive and proliferate while the tumor microenvironment influences tumor cell fitness. As TIS seems to be preferred for increasing the fitness of drug-challenged cancer cells, we will propose a few tactics to control it by using the principles of evolutionary biology. We hope that with appropriate therapeutic intervention, this detrimental cellular fate could be diverted in favor of TNBC patients.

Two-dimensional adaptive dynamics of evolutionary public goods games: finite-size effects on fixation probability and branching time

Public goods games (PGGs) describe situations in which individuals contribute to a good at a private cost, but others can free-ride by receiving a share of the public benefit at no cost. The game occurs within local neighbourhoods, which are subsets of the whole population. Free-riding and maximal production are two extremes of a continuous spectrum of traits. We study the adaptive dynamics of production and neighbourhood size. We allow the public good production and the neighbourhood size to coevolve and observe evolutionary branching. We explain how an initially monomorphic population undergoes evolutionary branching in two dimensions to become a dimorphic population characterized by extremes of the spectrum of trait values. We find that population size plays a crucial role in determining the final state of the population. Small populations may not branch or may be subject to extinction of a subpopulation after branching. In small populations, stochastic effects become important and we calculate the probability of subpopulation extinction. Our work elucidates the evolutionary origins of heterogeneity in local PGGs among individuals of two traits (production and neighbourhood size), and the effects of stochasticity in two-dimensional trait space, where novel effects emerge.

Optimal control to reach eco-evolutionary stability in metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer

In the absence of curative therapies, treatment of metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) using currently available drugs can be improved by integrating evolutionary principles that govern proliferation of resistant subpopulations into current treatment protocols. Here we develop what is coined as an 'evolutionary stable therapy', within the context of the mathematical model that has been used to inform the first adaptive therapy clinical trial of mCRPC. The objective of this therapy is to maintain a stable polymorphic tumor heterogeneity of sensitive and resistant cells to therapy in order to prolong treatment efficacy and progression free survival. Optimal control analysis shows that an increasing dose titration protocol, a very common clinical dosing process, can achieve tumor stabilization for a wide range of potential initial tumor compositions and volumes. Furthermore, larger tumor volumes may counter intuitively be more likely to be stabilized if sensitive cells dominate the tumor composition at time of initial treatment, suggesting a delay of initial treatment could prove beneficial. While it remains uncertain if metastatic disease in humans has the properties that allow it to be truly stabilized, the benefits of a dose titration protocol warrant additional pre-clinical and clinical investigations.

Persistence of cooperation in diffusive public goods games

Diffusive public goods (PG) games are difficult to analyze due to population assortment affecting growth rates of cooperators (producers) and free-riders. We study these growth rates using spectral decomposition of cellular densities and derive a finite cell-size correction of the growth rate advantage which exactly describes the dynamics of a randomly assorted population and approximates the dynamics under limited dispersal. The resulting effective benefit-to-cost ratio relates the physical parameters of PG dynamics to the persistence of cooperation, and our findings provide a powerful tool for the analysis of diffusive PG games, explaining commonly observed patterns of cooperation.

Time scales and wave formation in non-linear spatial public goods games

The co-evolutionary dynamics of competing populations can be strongly affected by frequency-dependent selection and spatial population structure. As co-evolving populations grow into a spatial domain, their initial spatial arrangement and their growth rate differences are important factors that determine the long-term outcome. We here model producer and free-rider co-evolution in the context of a diffusive public good (PG) that is produced by the producers at a cost but evokes local concentration-dependent growth benefits to all. The benefit of the PG can be non-linearly dependent on public good concentration. We consider the spatial growth dynamics of producers and free-riders in one, two and three dimensions by modeling producer cell, free-rider cell and public good densities in space, driven by the processes of birth, death and diffusion (cell movement and public good distribution). Typically, one population goes extinct, but the time-scale of this process varies with initial conditions and the growth rate functions. We establish that spatial variation is transient regardless of dimensionality, and that structured initial conditions lead to increasing times to get close to an extinction state, called ε-extinction time. Further, we find that uncorrelated initial spatial structures do not influence this ε-extinction time in comparison to a corresponding well-mixed (non-spatial) system. In order to estimate the ε-extinction time of either free-riders or producers we derive a slow manifold solution. For invading populations, i.e. for populations that are initially highly segregated, we observe a traveling wave, whose speed can be calculated. Our results provide quantitative predictions for the transient spatial dynamics of cooperative traits under pressure of extinction.

Evolutionary public good (PG) games capture the essence of production of growth-beneficial factors that are vulnerable to exploitation by free-riders who do not carry the cost of production. PGs emerge in cellular populations, for example in growing bacteria and cancer cells. We study the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a PG in populations that grow in space. In our model, PG-producer cells and free-rider cells can grow according to their own birth and death rates. Co-evolution occurs due to public good-driven surplus in the intrinsic growth rates at a cost to producers. A net growth rate-benefit to free-riders leads to the well-known tragedy of the commons in which producers go extinct. What is often omitted from discussions is the time scale on which this extinction can occur, especially in spatial populations. Here, we derive analytical estimates of the ε-extinction time in different spatial settings. As we do not consider a stochastic process, the ε-extinction time captures the time needed to approach an extinction state. We identify spatial scenarios in which extinction takes long enough such that the tragedy of the commons never occurs within a meaningful lifetime of the system. Using numerical simulations we analyze the deviations from our analytical predictions.

Cancer cell population growth kinetics at low densities deviate from the exponential growth model and suggest an Allee effect

Most models of cancer cell population expansion assume exponential growth kinetics at low cell densities, with deviations to account for observed slowing of growth rate only at higher densities due to limited resources such as space and nutrients. However, recent preclinical and clinical observations of tumor initiation or recurrence indicate the presence of tumor growth kinetics in which growth rates scale positively with cell numbers. These observations are analogous to the cooperative behavior of species in an ecosystem described by the ecological principle of the Allee effect. In preclinical and clinical models, however, tumor growth data are limited by the lower limit of detection (i.e., a measurable lesion) and confounding variables, such as tumor microenvironment, and immune responses may cause and mask deviations from exponential growth models. In this work, we present alternative growth models to investigate the presence of an Allee effect in cancer cells seeded at low cell densities in a controlled in vitro setting. We propose a stochastic modeling framework to disentangle expected deviations due to small population size stochastic effects from cooperative growth and use the moment approach for stochastic parameter estimation to calibrate the observed growth trajectories. We validate the framework on simulated data and apply this approach to longitudinal cell proliferation data of BT-474 luminal B breast cancer cells. We find that cell population growth kinetics are best described by a model structure that considers the Allee effect, in that the birth rate of tumor cells increases with cell number in the regime of small population size. This indicates a potentially critical role of cooperative behavior among tumor cells at low cell densities with relevance to early stage growth patterns of emerging and relapsed tumors.

The 2019 mathematical oncology roadmap

Whether the nom de guerre is Mathematical Oncology, Computational or Systems Biology, Theoretical Biology, Evolutionary Oncology, Bioinformatics, or simply Basic Science, there is no denying that mathematics continues to play an increasingly prominent role in cancer research. Mathematical Oncology-defined here simply as the use of mathematics in cancer research-complements and overlaps with a number of other fields that rely on mathematics as a core methodology. As a result, Mathematical Oncology has a broad scope, ranging from theoretical studies to clinical trials designed with mathematical models. This Roadmap differentiates Mathematical Oncology from related fields and demonstrates specific areas of focus within this unique field of research. The dominant theme of this Roadmap is the personalization of medicine through mathematics, modelling, and simulation. This is achieved through the use of patient-specific clinical data to: develop individualized screening strategies to detect cancer earlier; make predictions of response to therapy; design adaptive, patient-specific treatment plans to overcome therapy resistance; and establish domain-specific standards to share model predictions and to make models and simulations reproducible. The cover art for this Roadmap was chosen as an apt metaphor for the beautiful, strange, and evolving relationship between mathematics and cancer.

Fibroblasts and alectinib switch the evolutionary games played by non-small cell lung cancer

Heterogeneity in strategies for survival and proliferation among the cells which constitute a tumour is a driving force behind the evolution of resistance to cancer therapy. The rules mapping the tumour’s strategy distribution to the fitness of individual strategies can be represented as an evolutionary game. We develop a game assay to measure effective evolutionary games in co-cultures of non-small cell lung cancer cells which are sensitive and resistant to the anaplastic lymphoma kinase inhibitor Alectinib. The games are not only quantitatively different between different environments, but targeted therapy and cancer associated fibroblasts qualitatively switch the type of game being played by the in-vitro population from Leader to Deadlock. This observation provides empirical confirmation of a central theoretical postulate of evolutionary game theory in oncology: we can treat not only the player, but also the game. Although we concentrate on measuring games played by cancer cells, the measurement methodology we develop can be used to advance the study of games in other microscopic systems by providing a quantitative description of non-cell-autonomous effects.

Neighborhood size-effects shape growing population dynamics in evolutionary public goods games

An evolutionary game emerges when a subset of individuals incur costs to provide benefits to all individuals. Public goods games (PGG) cover the essence of such dilemmas in which cooperators are prone to exploitation by defectors. We model the population dynamics of a non-linear PGG and consider density-dependence on the global level, while the game occurs within local neighborhoods. At low cooperation, increases in the public good provide increasing returns. At high cooperation, increases provide diminishing returns. This mechanism leads to diverse evolutionarily stable strategies, including monomorphic and polymorphic populations, and neighborhood-size-driven state changes, resulting in hysteresis between equilibria. Stochastic or strategy-dependent variations in neighborhood sizes favor coexistence by destabilizing monomorphic states. We integrate our model with experiments of cancer cell growth and confirm that our framework describes PGG dynamics observed in cellular populations. Our findings advance the understanding of how neighborhood-size effects in PGG shape the dynamics of growing populations.

Fast cheater migration stabilizes coexistence in a public goods dilemma on networks

Through the lens of game theory, cooperation is frequently considered an unsustainable strategy: if an entire population is cooperating, each individual can increase its overall fitness by choosing not to cooperate, thereby still receiving all the benefit of its cooperating neighbors while no longer expending its own energy. Observable cooperation in naturally-occurring public goods games is consequently of great interest, as such systems offer insight into both the emergence and sustainability of cooperation. Here we consider a population that obeys a public goods game on a network of discrete regions (that we call colonies), between any two of which individuals are free to migrate. We construct a system of piecewise-smooth ordinary differential equations that couple the within-colony population dynamics and the between-colony migratory dynamics. Through a combination of analytical and numerical methods, we show that if the workers within the population migrate sufficiently fast relative to the cheaters, the network loses stability first through a Hopf bifurcation, then a torus bifurcation, after which one or more colonies collapse. Our results indicate that fast moving cheaters can act to stabilize worker-cheatercoexistence within network that would otherwise collapse. We end with a comparison of our results with the dynamics observed in colonies of the ant species Pristomyrmex punctatus, and argue that they qualitatively agree.