Unexpected spatial population ecology of a widespread terrestrial salamander near its southern range edge

Projected northward shifts in eastern red-backed salamanders due to changing climate

Many species' distributions are being impacted by the acceleration of climate change. Amphibians in particular serve numerous ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of environmental change. Understanding how their distributions have been impacted by climate change and will continue to be impacted is thus important to overall ecosystem health. Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red-Backed Salamander) is a widespread species of lungless salamander (Plethodontidae) that ranges across northeastern North America. To better understand future potential lungless salamander range shifts, we quantify environmental favorability, the likelihood of membership in a set of sites where environmental conditions are favorable for a species, for P. cinereus in multiple time periods, and examine shifts in the species' distribution. First, utilizing a large data set of georeferenced records, we assessed which bioclimatic variables were associated with environmental favorability in P. cinereus. We then used species distribution modeling for two time periods (1961-1980 and 2001-2020) to determine whether there was a regional shift in environmental favorability in the past 60 years. Models were then used to project future distributions under eight climate change scenarios to quantify potential range shifts. Shifts were assessed using fuzzy logic, avoiding thresholds that oversimplify model predictions into artificial binary outputs. We found that P. cinereus presence is strongly associated with environmental stability. There has been a substantial northward shift in environmental favorability for P. cinereus between 1961-1980 and 2001-2020. This shift is predicted to continue by 2070, with larger shifts under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. As climate change accelerates, it is differentially impacting species but has especially strong impacts on dispersal-limited species. Our results show substantial northward shifts in climatic favorability in the last 60 years for P. cinereus, which are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Since P. cinereus is dispersal-limited, these models may imply local extirpations along the southern modern range with limited northward dispersal. Continued monitoring of amphibians in the field will reveal microclimatic effects associated with climate change and the accuracy of the model predictions presented here.

Demography and space-use of Eastern Red-backed Salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) between mature and successional forests

Space-use and demographic processes are critical to the persistence of populations across space and time. Despite their importance, estimates of these processes are often derived from a limited number of populations spanning broad habitat or environmental gradients. With increasing appreciation of the role fine-scale environmental variation in microgeographic adaptation, there is a need and value to assessing within-site variation in space-use and demographic patterns. In this study, we analyze 3 years of spatial capture-recapture data on the Eastern Red-backed Salamander collected from a mixed-use deciduous forest site in central Ohio, USA. Study plots were situated in both a mature forest stand and successional forest stand separated by <100-m distance. Our results showed that salamander density was reduced on successional plots, which corresponded with greater distance between nearest neighbors, less overlap in core use areas, greater space-use, and greater shifts in activity centers when compared to salamanders occupying the mature habitat. By contrast, individual growth rates of salamanders occupying the successional forest were significantly greater than salamanders in the mature forest. These estimates result in successional plot salamanders reaching maturity more than 1 year earlier than salamanders on the mature forest plots and increasing their estimated lifetime fecundity by as much as 43%. The patterns we observed in space-use and individual growth are likely the result of density-dependent processes, potentially reflecting differences in resource availability or quality. Our study highlights how fine-scale, within-site variation can shape population demographics. As research into the demographic and population consequences of climate change and habitat loss and alteration continue, future research should take care to acknowledge the role that fine-scale variation may play, especially for abiotically sensitive organisms with limited vagility.

Experimental evaluation of spatial capture-recapture study design

A principal challenge impeding strong inference in analyses of wild populations is the lack of robust and long-term data sets. Recent advancements in analytical tools used in wildlife science may increase our ability to integrate smaller data sets and enhance the statistical power of population estimates. One such advancement, the development of spatial capture-recapture (SCR) methods, explicitly accounts for differences in spatial study designs, making it possible to equate multiple study designs in one analysis. SCR has been shown to be robust to variation in design as long as minimal sampling guidance is adhered to. However, these expectations are based on simulation and have yet to be evaluated in wild populations. Here we conduct a rigorously designed field experiment by manipulating the arrangement of artificial cover objects (ACOs) used to collect data on red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) to empirically evaluate the effects of design configuration on inference made using SCR. Our results suggest that, using SCR, estimates of space use and detectability are sensitive to study design configuration, namely the spacing and extent of the array, and that caution is warranted when assigning biological interpretation to these parameters. However, estimates of population density remain robust to design except when the configuration of detectors grossly violates existing recommendations.

Demographic consequences of changing body size in a terrestrial salamander

Changes in climate can alter individual body size, and the resulting shifts in reproduction and survival are expected to impact population dynamics and viability. However, appropriate methods to account for size-dependent demographic changes are needed, especially in understudied yet threatened groups such as amphibians. We investigated individual- and population-level demographic effects of changes in body size for a terrestrial salamander using capture-mark-recapture data. For our analysis, we implemented an integral projection model parameterized with capture-recapture likelihood estimates from a Bayesian framework. Our study combines survival and growth data from a single dataset to quantify the influence of size on survival while including different sources of uncertainty around these parameters, demonstrating how selective forces can be studied in populations with limited data and incomplete recaptures. We found a strong dependency of the population growth rate on changes in individual size, mediated by potential changes in selection on mean body size and on maximum body size. Our approach of simultaneous parameter estimation can be extended across taxa to identify eco-evolutionary mechanisms acting on size-specific vital rates, and thus shaping population dynamics and viability.

Genetic variation in Plethodon cinereus and Plethodon hubrichti from in and around a contact zone

Climate change poses several challenges to biological communities including changes in the frequency of encounters between closely related congeners as a result of range shifts. When climate change leads to increased hybridization, hybrid dysfunction or genetic swamping may increase extinction risk-particularly in range-restricted species with low vagility. The Peaks of Otter Salamander, Plethodon hubrichti, is a fully terrestrial woodland salamander that is restricted to ~18 km of ridgeline in the mountains of southwestern Virginia, and its range is surrounded by the abundant and widespread Eastern Red-backed Salamander, Plethodon cinereus. In order to determine whether these two species are hybridizing and how their range limits may be shifting, we assessed variation at eight microsatellite loci and a 1,008 bp region of Cytochrome B in both species at allopatric reference sites and within a contact zone. Our results show that hybridization between P. hubrichti and P. cinereus either does not occur or is very rare. However, we find that diversity and differentiation are substantially higher in the mountaintop endemic P. hubrichti than in the widespread P. cinereus, despite similar movement ability for the two species as assessed by a homing experiment. Furthermore, estimation of divergence times between reference and contact zone populations via approximate Bayesian computation is consistent with the idea that P. cinereus has expanded into the range of P. hubrichti. Given the apparent recent colonization of the contact zone by P. cinereus, future monitoring of P. cinereus range limits should be a priority for the management of P. hubrichti populations.