Millennial processes of population decline, range contraction and near extinction of the European bison

European bison (Bison bonasus) were widespread throughout Europe during the late Pleistocene. However, the contributions of environmental change and humans to their near extinction have never been resolved. Using process-explicit models, fossils and ancient DNA, we disentangle the combinations of threatening processes that drove population declines and regional extinctions of European bison through space and across time. We show that the population size of European bison declined abruptly at the termination of the Pleistocene in response to rapid environmental change, hunting by humans and their interaction. Human activities prevented populations of European bison from rebounding in the Holocene, despite improved environmental conditions. Hunting caused range loss in the north and east of its distribution, while land use change was responsible for losses in the west and south. Advances in hunting technologies from 1500 CE were needed to simulate low abundances observed in 1870 CE. While our findings show that humans were an important driver of the extinction of the European bison in the wild, vast areas of its range vanished during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition because of post-glacial environmental change. These areas of its former range have been climatically unsuitable for millennia and should not be considered in reintroduction efforts.

Dissimilarity of vertebrate trophic interactions reveals spatial uniqueness but functional redundancy across Europe

Identifying areas that contain species assemblages not found elsewhere in a region is central to conservation planning.1,2 Species assemblages contain networks of species interactions that underpin species dynamics,3,4 ecosystem processes, and contributions to people.5,6,7 Yet the uniqueness of interaction networks in a regional context has rarely been assessed. Here, we estimated the spatial uniqueness of 10,000 terrestrial vertebrate trophic networks across Europe (1,164 species, 50,408 potential interactions8) based on the amount of similarity between all local networks mapped at a 10 km resolution. Our results revealed more unique networks in the Arctic bioregion, but also in southern Europe and isolated islands. We then contrasted the uniqueness of trophic networks with their vulnerability to human footprint and future climate change and measured their coverage within protected areas. This analysis revealed that unique networks situated in southern Europe were particularly exposed to human footprint and that unique networks in the Arctic might be at risk from future climate change. However, considering interaction networks at the level of trophic groups, rather than species, revealed that the general structure of trophic networks was redundant across the continent, in contrast to species' interactions. We argue that proactive European conservation strategies might gain relevance by turning their eyes toward interaction networks that are both unique and vulnerable.

Projected northward shifts in eastern red-backed salamanders due to changing climate

Many species' distributions are being impacted by the acceleration of climate change. Amphibians in particular serve numerous ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of environmental change. Understanding how their distributions have been impacted by climate change and will continue to be impacted is thus important to overall ecosystem health. Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red-Backed Salamander) is a widespread species of lungless salamander (Plethodontidae) that ranges across northeastern North America. To better understand future potential lungless salamander range shifts, we quantify environmental favorability, the likelihood of membership in a set of sites where environmental conditions are favorable for a species, for P. cinereus in multiple time periods, and examine shifts in the species' distribution. First, utilizing a large data set of georeferenced records, we assessed which bioclimatic variables were associated with environmental favorability in P. cinereus. We then used species distribution modeling for two time periods (1961-1980 and 2001-2020) to determine whether there was a regional shift in environmental favorability in the past 60 years. Models were then used to project future distributions under eight climate change scenarios to quantify potential range shifts. Shifts were assessed using fuzzy logic, avoiding thresholds that oversimplify model predictions into artificial binary outputs. We found that P. cinereus presence is strongly associated with environmental stability. There has been a substantial northward shift in environmental favorability for P. cinereus between 1961-1980 and 2001-2020. This shift is predicted to continue by 2070, with larger shifts under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. As climate change accelerates, it is differentially impacting species but has especially strong impacts on dispersal-limited species. Our results show substantial northward shifts in climatic favorability in the last 60 years for P. cinereus, which are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Since P. cinereus is dispersal-limited, these models may imply local extirpations along the southern modern range with limited northward dispersal. Continued monitoring of amphibians in the field will reveal microclimatic effects associated with climate change and the accuracy of the model predictions presented here.

Biodiversity patterns diverge along geographic temperature gradients

Models applying space-for-time substitution, including those projecting ecological responses to climate change, generally assume an elevational and latitudinal equivalence that is rarely tested. However, a mismatch may lead to different capacities for providing climatic refuge to dispersing species. We compiled community data on zooplankton, ectothermic animals that form the consumer basis of most aquatic food webs, from over 1200 mountain lakes and ponds across western North America to assess biodiversity along geographic temperature gradients spanning nearly 3750 m elevation and 30° latitude. Species richness, phylogenetic relationships, and functional diversity all showed contrasting responses across gradients, with richness metrics plateauing at low elevations but exhibiting intermediate latitudinal maxima. The nonmonotonic/hump-shaped diversity trends with latitude emerged from geographic interactions, including weaker latitudinal relationships at higher elevations (i.e. in alpine lakes) linked to different underlying drivers. Here, divergent patterns of phylogenetic and functional trait dispersion indicate shifting roles of environmental filters and limiting similarity in the assembly of communities with increasing elevation and latitude. We further tested whether gradients showed common responses to warmer temperatures and found that mean annual (but not seasonal) temperatures predicted elevational richness patterns but failed to capture consistent trends with latitude, meaning that predictions of how climate change will influence diversity also differ between gradients. Contrasting responses to elevation- and latitude-driven warming suggest different limits on climatic refugia and likely greater barriers to northward range expansion.

Diversity and Conservation Gap Analysis of the Solanaceae of Southern South America

There is a need to make substantial advances in the taxonomic, systematic, and distribution knowledge of plants, and find better ways of transmission of this information to society to surpass the general pattern described as "plant blindness." The diversity of the plant family Solanaceae reaches its peak in South America; however, many of its species are threatened due to the expansion of the human footprint. Here, we examine the diversity patterns of the family in southern South America (Argentina and Chile) by means of species richness (SR), weighted endemism (WE), and corrected weighted endemism (CWE). We also evaluated conservation gaps in relation to protected areas and the human footprint as a proxy for potential impacts on this biodiversity. Results show two richness centers in NW and NE Argentina, with a high degree of overlap with protected areas, which, on the other side, show a relative high index of human footprint. Comparatively, coastal Atacama (Chile) shows lower richness values, but outstanding CWE and WE values. The coast of Atacama harbors high values due the presence of species of the genus Nolana with restricted distributions. Protected areas in this tight coastal strip are sparse, and the human footprint is also relatively high. The degree of protection based on these parameters is then unbalanced, highlighting the need for a geographically explicit strategy for the conservation of the family at subcontinental scale. In doing so, it is likely that other representatives of these unique centers of richness and endemism will benefit.

On piecewise models and species-area patterns

AIM

Area thresholds, at which the form of the species-area relationship (SAR) changes abruptly, have played an important role in the theoretical framework of conservation biogeography and biodiversity research. The application of piecewise regressions has been advocated as a rigorous statistical technique to identify such thresholds within SARs, but a large variety of piecewise models remains untested. We explore the prevalence and number of thresholds in SARs and examine whether the currently widely used method for detecting the small island effect (SIE) is robust.

LOCATION

Global.

TAXON

We consider all multicellular taxa based on the criteria of datasets selection.

METHODS

We apply 15 regression models, including linear regression and piecewise regressions with two and three segments to 68 global island datasets that are sourced from the literature.

RESULTS

The number of area thresholds in SARs varied among groups and correlated positively with area range of a studied system. Under the AIC or AICc criterion, three-segment piecewise models were more prevalent, whereas under the BIC criterion, two-segment piecewise models were more prevalent. From the results of Aegean Sea isopods, West Indies herpetofauna, and Australian Islands mammals, we found evidence that the traditional criteria for detection of SIEs are not robust.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that (a) to detect an SIE, the comparison should use as many models as possible, including not only variants with and without a left-horizontal part, but also those with two and more segments; (b) naive use of the traditional two-segment piecewise regressions may cause poor estimations of both slope and breakpoint values; (c) the number of thresholds increases with the area range of a studied system; (d) conservation biologists and applied ecologists should determine the number of area thresholds when estimating the precise species-area patterns and making management strategies in fragmented landscapes.

A global synthesis of the small-island effect in habitat islands

Habitat loss and fragmentation are considered to be the leading drivers of biodiversity loss. The small-island effect (SIE) can be used to predict species extinctions resulting from habitat loss and has important implications for species conservation. However, to date, no study has explicitly evaluated the prevalence of SIEs in habitat islands. Here, we compiled 90 global datasets to systematically investigate the prevalence and underlying factors determining the ubiquity of SIEs in habitat island systems. Among the 90 datasets, SIEs were unambiguously detected in 36 cases. We found significant effects of habitat island types and taxon groups on the threshold area of SIEs. The number of islands, area range, species range, island type and taxon group were key variables that determined the prevalence of SIEs. Our study demonstrates that SIEs occur in 40% of cases and thus are common in habitat islands. We conclude that conservation biologists and applied ecologists should consider the prevalence of SIEs when making management strategies in fragmented landscapes.

Niche conservatism and the invasive potential of the wild boar

Niche conservatism, i.e. the retention of a species' fundamental niche through evolutionary time, is cornerstone for biological invasion assessments. The fact that species tend to maintain their original climate niche allows predictive maps of invasion risk to anticipate potential invadable areas. Unravelling the mechanisms driving niche shifts can shed light on the management of invasive species. Here, we assessed niche shifts in one of the world's worst invasive species: the wild boar Sus scrofa. We also predicted potential invadable areas based on an ensemble of three ecological niche modelling methods, and evaluated the performance of models calibrated with native vs. pooled (native plus invaded) species records. By disentangling the drivers of change on the exotic wild boar population's niches, we found strong evidence for niche conservatism during biological invasion. Ecological niche models calibrated with both native and pooled range records predicted convergent areas. Also, observed niche shifts are mostly explained by niche unfilling, i.e. there are unoccupied areas in the exotic range where climate is analogous to the native range. Niche unfilling is expected as result of recent colonization and ongoing dispersal, and was potentially stronger for the Neotropics, where a recent wave of introductions for pig-farming and game-hunting has led to high wild boar population growth rates. The invasive potential of wild boar in the Neotropics is probably higher than in other regions, which has profound management implications if we are to prevent their invasion into species-rich areas, such as Amazonia, coupled with expansion of African swine fever and possibly great economic losses. Although the originally Eurasian-wide distribution suggests a pre-adaptation to a wide array of climates, the wild boar world-wide invasion does not exhibit evidence of niche evolution. The invasive potential of the wild boar therefore probably lies on the reproductive, dietary and morphological characteristics of this species, coupled with behavioural thermoregulation.

Thermophilization of adult and juvenile tree communities in the northern tropical Andes

Climate change is expected to cause shifts in the composition of tropical montane forests towards increased relative abundances of species whose ranges were previously centered at lower, hotter elevations. To investigate this process of "thermophilization," we analyzed patterns of compositional change over the last decade using recensus data from a network of 16 adult and juvenile tree plots in the tropical forests of northern Andes Mountains and adjacent lowlands in northwestern Colombia. Analyses show evidence that tree species composition is strongly linked to temperature and that composition is changing directionally through time, potentially in response to climate change and increasing temperatures. Mean rates of thermophilization [thermal migration rate (TMR), °C ⋅ y(-1)] across all censuses were 0.011 °C ⋅ y(-1) (95% confidence interval = 0.002-0.022 °C ⋅ y(-1)) for adult trees and 0.027 °C ⋅ y(-1) (95% confidence interval = 0.009-0.050 °C ⋅ y(-1)) for juvenile trees. The fact that thermophilization is occurring in both the adult and juvenile trees and at rates consistent with concurrent warming supports the hypothesis that the observed compositional changes are part of a long-term process, such as global warming, and are not a response to any single episodic event. The observed changes in composition were driven primarily by patterns of tree mortality, indicating that the changes in composition are mostly via range retractions, rather than range shifts or expansions. These results all indicate that tropical forests are being strongly affected by climate change and suggest that many species will be at elevated risk for extinction as warming continues.

Conservation planning in agricultural landscapes: hotspots of conflict between agriculture and nature

Aim

Conservation conflict takes place where food production imposes a cost on wildlife conservation and vice versa. Where does conservation impose the maximum cost on production, by opposing the intensification and expansion of farmland? Where does conservation confer the maximum benefit on wildlife, by buffering and connecting protected areas with a habitable and permeable matrix of crop and non-crop habitat? Our aim was to map the costs and benefits of conservation versus production and thus to propose a conceptual framework for systematic conservation planning in agricultural landscapes.

Location

World-wide.

Methods

To quantify these costs and benefits, we used a geographic information system to sample the cropland of the world and map the proportion of non-crop habitat surrounding the cropland, the number of threatened vertebrates with potential to live in or move through the matrix and the yield gap of the cropland. We defined the potential for different types of conservation conflict in terms of interactions between habitat and yield (potential for expansion, intensification, both or neither). We used spatial scan statistics to find ‘hotspots’ of conservation conflict.

Results

All of the ‘hottest’ hotspots of conservation conflict were in sub-Saharan Africa, which could have impacts on sustainable intensification in this region.

Main conclusions

Systematic conservation planning could and should be used to identify hotspots of conservation conflict in agricultural landscapes, at multiple scales. The debate between ‘land sharing’ (extensive agriculture that is wildlife friendly) and ‘land sparing’ (intensive agriculture that is less wildlife friendly but also less extensive) could be resolved if sharing and sparing were used as different types of tool for resolving different types of conservation conflict (buffering and connecting protected areas by maintaining matrix quality, in different types of matrix). Therefore, both sharing and sparing should be prioritized in hotspots of conflict, in the context of countryside biogeography.

Multifaceted diversity-area relationships reveal global hotspots of mammalian species, trait and lineage diversity

AIM

To define biome-scale hotspots of phylogenetic and functional mammalian biodiversity (PD and FD, respectively) and compare them to 'classical' hotspots based on species richness (SR) only.

LOCATION

Global.

METHODS

SR, PD & FD were computed for 782 terrestrial ecoregions using distribution ranges of 4616 mammalian species. We used a set of comprehensive diversity indices unified by a recent framework that incorporates the species relative coverage in each ecoregion. We build large-scale multifaceted diversity-area relationships to rank ecoregions according to their levels of biodiversity while accounting for the effect of area on each diversity facet. Finally we defined hotspots as the top-ranked ecoregions.

RESULTS

While ignoring species relative coverage led to a relative good congruence between biome top ranked SR, PD and FD hotspots, ecoregions harboring a rich and abundantly represented evolutionary history and functional diversity did not match with top ranked ecoregions defined by species richness. More importantly PD and FD hotspots showed important spatial mismatches. We also found that FD and PD generally reached their maximum values faster than species richness as a function of area.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The fact that PD/FD reach faster their maximal value than SR may suggest that the two former facets might be less vulnerable to habitat loss than the latter. While this point is expected, it is the first time that it is quantified at global scale and should have important consequences in conservation. Incorporating species relative coverage into the delineation of multifaceted hotspots of diversity lead to weak congruence between SR, PD and FD hotspots. This means that maximizing species number may fail at preserving those nodes (in the phylogenetic or functional tree) that are relatively abundant in the ecoregion. As a consequence it may be of prime importance to adopt a multifaceted biodiversity perspective to inform conservation strategies at global scale.

Dynamic occupancy models for analyzing species' range dynamics across large geographic scales

Large-scale biodiversity data are needed to predict species' responses to global change and to address basic questions in macroecology. While such data are increasingly becoming available, their analysis is challenging because of the typically large heterogeneity in spatial sampling intensity and the need to account for observation processes. Two further challenges are accounting for spatial effects that are not explained by covariates, and drawing inference on dynamics at these large spatial scales. We developed dynamic occupancy models to analyze large-scale atlas data. In addition to occupancy, these models estimate local colonization and persistence probabilities. We accounted for spatial autocorrelation using conditional autoregressive models and autologistic models. We fitted the models to detection/nondetection data collected on a quarter-degree grid across southern Africa during two atlas projects, using the hadeda ibis (Bostrychia hagedash) as an example. The model accurately reproduced the range expansion between the first (SABAP1: 1987-1992) and second (SABAP2: 2007-2012) Southern African Bird Atlas Project into the drier parts of interior South Africa. Grid cells occupied during SABAP1 generally remained occupied, but colonization of unoccupied grid cells was strongly dependent on the number of occupied grid cells in the neighborhood. The detection probability strongly varied across space due to variation in effort, observer identity, seasonality, and unexplained spatial effects. We present a flexible hierarchical approach for analyzing grid-based atlas data using dynamical occupancy models. Our model is similar to a species' distribution model obtained using generalized additive models but has a number of advantages. Our model accounts for the heterogeneous sampling process, spatial correlation, and perhaps most importantly, allows us to examine dynamic aspects of species ranges.

Phylogeography of the dark kangaroo mouse, Microdipodops megacephalus: cryptic lineages and dispersal routes in North America's Great Basin

AIM: The rodent genus Microdipodops (kangaroo mice) includes two sand-obligate endemics of the Great Basin Desert: M. megacephalus and M. pallidus. The dark kangaroo mouse, M. megacephalus, is distributed throughout the Great Basin and our principal aims were to formulate phylogenetic hypotheses for this taxon and make phylogeographical comparisons with its congener. LOCATION: The Great Basin Desert of western North America. METHODS: DNA sequence data from three mitochondrial genes were examined from 186 individuals of M. megacephalus, representing 47 general localities. Phylogenetic inference was used to analyse the sequence data. Directional analysis of phylogeographical patterns was used to examine haplotype sharing patterns and recover routes of gene exchange. Haplotype-area curves were constructed to evaluate the relationship between genetic variation and distributional island size for M. megacephalus and M. pallidus. RESULTS: Microdipodops megacephalus is a rare desert rodent (trapping success was 2.67%). Temporal comparison of trapping data shows that kangaroo mice are becoming less abundant in the study area. The distribution has changed slightly since the 1930s but many northern populations now appear to be small, fragmented, or locally extinct. Four principal phylogroups (the Idaho isolate and the western, central and eastern clades) are evident; mean sequence divergence between phylogroups for cytochrome b is c. 8%. Data from haplotype sharing show two trends: a north-south trend and a web-shaped trend. Analyses of haplotype-area curves reveal significant positive relationships. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The four phylogroups of M. megacephalus appear to represent morphologically cryptic species; in comparison, a companion study revealed two cryptic lineages in M. pallidus. Estimated divergence times of the principal clades of M. megacephalus (c. 2-4 Ma) indicate that these kangaroo mice were Pleistocene invaders into the Great Basin coincident with the formation of sandy habitats. The north-south and web patterns from directional analyses reveal past routes of gene flow and provide evidence for source-sink population regulation. The web pattern was not seen in the companion study of M. pallidus. Significant haplotype-area curves indicate that the distributional islands are now in approximate genetic equilibrium. The patterns described here are potentially useful to conservation biologists and wildlife managers and may serve as a model for other sand-obligate organisms of the Great Basin.

Phylogeography of the pallid kangaroo mouse, Microdipodops pallidus: a sand-obligate endemic of the Great Basin, western North America

AIM: Kangaroo mice, genus Microdipodops Merriam, are endemic to the Great Basin and include two species: M. pallidus Merriam and M. megacephalus Merriam. The pallid kangaroo mouse, M. pallidus, is a sand-obligate desert rodent. Our principal intent is to identify its current geographical distribution and to formulate a phylogeographical hypothesis for this taxon. In addition, we test for orientation patterns in haplotype sharing for evidence of past episodes of movement and gene flow. LOCATION: The Great Basin Desert region of western North America, especially the sandy habitats of the Lahontan Trough and those in south-central Nevada. METHODS: Mitochondrial DNA sequence data from portions of three genes (16S ribosomal RNA, cytochrome b, and transfer RNA for glutamic acid) were obtained from 98 individuals of M. pallidus representing 27 general localities sampled throughout its geographical range. Molecular sequence data were analysed using neighbour-joining, maximum-parsimony, maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods of phylogenetic inference. Directional analysis of phylogeographical patterns, a novel method, was used to examine angular measurements of haplotype sharing between pairs of localities to detect and quantify historical events pertaining to movement patterns and gene flow. RESULTS: Collecting activities showed that M. pallidus is a rather rare rodent (mean trapping success was 2.88%), and its distribution has changed little from that determined three-quarters of a century ago. Two principal phylogroups, distributed as eastern and western moieties, are evident from the phylogenetic analyses (mean sequence divergence for cytochrome b is c. 8%). The western clade shows little phylogenetic structure and seems to represent a large polytomy. In the eastern clade, however, three subgroups are recognized. Nine of the 42 unique composite haplotypes are present at two or more localities and are used for the orientation analyses. Axial data from haplotype sharing between pairwise localities show significant, non-random angular patterns: a north-west to south-east orientation in the western clade, and a north-east to south-west directional pattern in the eastern clade. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The geographical range of M. pallidus seems to be remarkably stable in historical times and does not show a northward (or elevationally upward) movement trend, as has been reported for some other kinds of organism in response to global climate change. The eastern and western clades are likely to represent morphologically cryptic species. Estimated times of divergence of the principal clades of M. pallidus (4.38 Ma) and between M. pallidus and M. megacephalus (8.1 Ma; data from a related study) indicate that kangaroo mice diverged much earlier than thought previously. The phylogeographical patterns described here may serve as a model for other sand-obligate members of the Great Basin Desert biota.