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Marsh EJ, Vranich A, Blom D, Bruno M, Davis K, Augustine J, Couture NC, Ancapichún S, Knudson KJ, Popović D, Cunietti G. The center cannot hold: A Bayesian chronology for the collapse of Tiwanaku. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0288798. [PMID: 37992089 PMCID: PMC10664893 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288798] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 07/04/2023] [Indexed: 11/24/2023] Open
Abstract
The timing of Tiwanaku's collapse remains contested. Here we present a generational-scale chronology of Tiwanaku using Bayesian models of 102 radiocarbon dates, including 45 unpublished dates. This chronology tracks four community practices: residing short- vs. long-term, constructing monuments, discarding decorated ceramics, and leaving human burials. Tiwanaku was founded around AD 100 and around AD 600, it became the region's principal destination for migrants. It grew into one of the Andes' first cities and became famous for its decorated ceramics, carved monoliths, and large monuments. Our Bayesian models show that monument building ended ~AD 720 (the median of the ending boundary). Around ~AD 910, burials in tombs ceased as violent deaths began, which we document for the first time in this paper. Ritualized murders are limited to the century leading up to ~AD 1020. Our clearest proxy for social networks breaking down is a precise estimate for the end of permanent residence, ~AD 1010 (970-1050, 95%). This major inflection point was followed by visitors who used the same ceramics until ~AD 1040. Temporary camps lasted until roughly ~AD 1050. These four events suggest a rapid, city-wide collapse at ~AD 1010-1050, lasting just ~20 years (0-70 years, 95%). These results suggest a cascading breakdown of community practices and social networks that were physically anchored at Tiwanaku, though visitors continued to leave informal burials for centuries. This generation-scale chronology suggests that collapse 1) took place well before reduced precipitation, hence this was not a drought-induced societal change and 2) a few resilient communities sustained some traditions at other sites, hence the chronology for the site of Tiwanaku cannot be transposed to all sites with similar material culture.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erik J Marsh
- CONICET, Laboratorio de Paleoecología Humana, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina
| | - Alexei Vranich
- Center of Andean Studies, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Deborah Blom
- Department of Anthropology, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, United States of America
| | - Maria Bruno
- Department of Anthropology & Archaeology, Dickinson College, Carlisle, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Katharine Davis
- Department of Anthropology and Sociology, Ursinus College, Collegeville, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Jonah Augustine
- Department of Anthropology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Nicole C Couture
- Department of Anthropology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Santiago Ancapichún
- Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile
| | - Kelly J Knudson
- Center for Bioarchaeological Research, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America
| | - Danijela Popović
- Centre of New Technologies, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Gianni Cunietti
- Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina
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2
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Carmel Y. Human societal development: is it an evolutionary transition in individuality? Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20210409. [PMID: 36688399 PMCID: PMC9869447 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
An evolutionary transition in individuality (ETI) occurs when a previously independent organism becomes a lower level unit within a higher hierarchical level (for example, cells in an organism, ants in a colony). Using archaeological and historical accounts from the last 12 000 years, I empirically examine the proposition that human society increasingly functions as a higher hierarchical level within which individuals integrate as lower level units. I evaluate human societal development with respect to three criteria that together indicate complexity in biological systems and serve as an operationalization scheme for ETIs: size, inseparability and specialization. The size of the largest polity has increased seven orders of magnitude, from hundreds to billions. Inseparability became nearly complete since Mesopotamian city-states, following the first appearance of intricate specialization (division of labour). Connectivity within a polity has increased rapidly during the last few centuries, and particularly within the last few decades. In view of these results, I formulate the following hypothesis: human society is undergoing an evolutionary transition in individuality, driven by socio-cultural-technological processes. This proposition requires a detailed theoretical basis and further empirical testing. I propose four predictions derived from the hypothesis that may be used to test it. This article is part of the theme issue 'Human socio-cultural evolution in light of evolutionary transitions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yohay Carmel
- Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Technion, Haifa 32000, Israel
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3
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Manning SW, Lorentzen B, Welton L, Batiuk S, Harrison TP. Beyond megadrought and collapse in the Northern Levant: The chronology of Tell Tayinat and two historical inflection episodes, around 4.2ka BP, and following 3.2ka BP. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0240799. [PMID: 33119717 PMCID: PMC7595433 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2020] [Accepted: 10/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
There has been considerable focus on the main, expansionary, and inter-regionally linked or 'globalising' periods in Old World pre- and proto-history, with a focus on identifying, analyzing and dating collapse at the close of these pivotal periods. The end of the Early Bronze Age in the late third millennium BCE and a subsequent 'intermediate' or transitional period before the Middle Bronze Age (~2200-1900 BCE), and the end of the Late Bronze Age in the late second millennium BCE and the ensuing period of transformation during the Early Iron Age (~1200-900 BCE), are key examples. Among other issues, climate change is regularly invoked as a cause or factor in both cases. Recent considerations of "collapse" have emphasized the unpredictability and variability of responses during such periods of reorganization and transformation. Yet, a gap in scholarly attention remains in documenting the responses observed at important sites during these 'transformative' periods in the Old World region. Tell Tayinat in southeastern Turkey, as a major archaeological site occupied during these two major 'in between' periods of transformation, offers a unique case for comparing and contrasting differing responses to change. To enable scholarly assessment of associations between the local trajectory of the site and broader regional narratives, an essential preliminary need is a secure, resolved timeframe for the site. Here we report a large set of radiocarbon data and incorporate the stratigraphic sequence using Bayesian chronological modelling to create a refined timeframe for Tell Tayinat and a secure basis for analysis of the site with respect to its broader regional context and climate history.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sturt W. Manning
- Cornell Tree-Ring Laboratory, Department of Classics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America
| | - Brita Lorentzen
- Cornell Tree-Ring Laboratory, Department of Classics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America
| | - Lynn Welton
- Department of Near and Middle Eastern Civilizations, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Archaeology, Durham University, Dawson Building, Durham, United Kingdom
| | - Stephen Batiuk
- Department of Near and Middle Eastern Civilizations, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Timothy P. Harrison
- Department of Near and Middle Eastern Civilizations, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
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Ćirković MM, Vukotić B, Stojanović M. Persistence of Technosignatures: A Comment on Lingam and Loeb. ASTROBIOLOGY 2019; 19:1300-1302. [PMID: 31260327 DOI: 10.1089/ast.2019.2052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
In a recent article in this journal, Lingam and Loeb developed an excellent heuristic for searches for biosignatures versus technosignatures. We consider two ways in which their approach could be extended and sharpened, with focus on durability of technosignatures. We also note an important consequence of the adopted heuristic that offers strong support to the ideas of the Dysonian Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI).
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Affiliation(s)
- Milan M Ćirković
- Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
- Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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5
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Manning SW, Birch J, Conger MA, Dee MW, Griggs C, Hadden CS, Hogg AG, Ramsey CB, Sanft S, Steier P, Wild EM. Radiocarbon re-dating of contact-era Iroquoian history in northeastern North America. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2018; 4:eaav0280. [PMID: 30525108 PMCID: PMC6281431 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aav0280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2018] [Accepted: 11/07/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
A time frame for late Iroquoian prehistory is firmly established on the basis of the presence/absence of European trade goods and other archeological indicators. However, independent dating evidence is lacking. We use 86 radiocarbon measurements to test and (re)define existing chronological understanding. Warminster, often associated with Cahiagué visited by S. de Champlain in 1615-1616 CE, yields a compatible radiocarbon-based age. However, a well-known late prehistoric site sequence in southern Ontario, Draper-Spang-Mantle, usually dated ~1450-1550, yields much later radiocarbon-based dates of ~1530-1615. The revised time frame dramatically rewrites 16th-century contact-era history in this region. Key processes of violent conflict, community coalescence, and the introduction of European goods all happened much later and more rapidly than previously assumed. Our results suggest the need to reconsider current understandings of contact-era dynamics across northeastern North America.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sturt W. Manning
- Cornell Tree Ring Laboratory, Department of Classics, B-48 Goldwin Smith Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
| | - Jennifer Birch
- Department of Anthropology, University of Georgia, 250A Baldwin Hall, Jackson Street, Athens, GA 30602-1619, USA
| | - Megan A. Conger
- Department of Anthropology, University of Georgia, 250A Baldwin Hall, Jackson Street, Athens, GA 30602-1619, USA
| | - Michael W. Dee
- Centre for Isotope Research, Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 6, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands
| | - Carol Griggs
- Cornell Tree Ring Laboratory, Department of Classics, B-48 Goldwin Smith Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
| | - Carla S. Hadden
- Center for Applied Isotope Studies, University of Georgia, 120 Riverbend Rd, Athens, GA 30602-4702, USA
| | - Alan G. Hogg
- Radiocarbon Dating Laboratory, University of Waikato, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand
| | - Christopher Bronk Ramsey
- Research Laboratory for Archaeology and the History of Art, School of Archaeology, Oxford University, 1 South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3TG, UK
| | - Samantha Sanft
- Department of Anthropology, 261 McGraw Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-4601, USA
| | - Peter Steier
- University of Vienna, VERA Laboratory, Faculty of Physics, Isotope Research and Nuclear Physics, Währinger Straße 17, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
| | - Eva M. Wild
- University of Vienna, VERA Laboratory, Faculty of Physics, Isotope Research and Nuclear Physics, Währinger Straße 17, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
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Abstract
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is the most common statistical framework used by scientists, including archaeologists. Owing to increasing dissatisfaction, however, Bayesian inference has become an alternative to these methods. In this article, we review the application of Bayesian statistics to archaeology. We begin with a simple example to demonstrate the differences in applying NHST and Bayesian inference to an archaeological problem. Next, we formally define NHST and Bayesian inference, provide a brief historical overview of their development, and discuss the advantages and limitations of each method. A review of Bayesian inference and archaeology follows, highlighting the applications of Bayesian methods to chronological, bioarchaeological, zooarchaeological, ceramic, lithic, and spatial analyses. We close by considering the future applications of Bayesian statistics to archaeological research.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Melissa G. Torquato
- Department of Anthropology, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907, USA;,
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Dee MW, Pope BJS. Anchoring historical sequences using a new source of astro-chronological tie-points. Proc Math Phys Eng Sci 2016; 472:20160263. [PMID: 27616924 DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2016.0263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The discovery of past spikes in atmospheric radiocarbon activity, caused by major solar energetic particle events, has opened up new possibilities for high-precision chronometry. The two spikes, or Miyake Events, have now been widely identified in tree-rings that grew in the years 775 and 994 CE. Furthermore, all other plant material that grew in these years would also have incorporated the anomalously high concentrations of radiocarbon. Crucially, some plant-based artefacts, such as papyrus documents, timber beams and linen garments, can also be allocated to specific positions within long, currently unfixed, historical sequences. Thus, Miyake Events represent a new source of tie-points that could provide the means for anchoring early chronologies to the absolute timescale. Here, we explore this possibility, outlining the most expeditious approaches, the current challenges and obstacles, and how they might best be overcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael W Dee
- RLAHA, Dyson Perrins Building , University of Oxford , Oxford OX1 3QY , UK
| | - Benjamin J S Pope
- Oxford Astrophysics, Denys Wilkinson Building , University of Oxford , Oxford OX1 3RH , UK
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Higham CFW, Douka K, Higham TFG. A New Chronology for the Bronze Age of Northeastern Thailand and Its Implications for Southeast Asian Prehistory. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0137542. [PMID: 26384011 PMCID: PMC4575132 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0137542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2014] [Accepted: 08/13/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
There are two models for the origins and timing of the Bronze Age in Southeast Asia. The first centres on the sites of Ban Chiang and Non Nok Tha in Northeast Thailand. It places the first evidence for bronze technology in about 2000 B.C., and identifies the origin by means of direct contact with specialists of the Seima Turbino metallurgical tradition of Central Eurasia. The second is based on the site of Ban Non Wat, 280 km southwest of Ban Chiang, where extensive radiocarbon dating places the transition into the Bronze Age in the 11th century B.C. with likely origins in a southward expansion of technological expertise rooted in the early states of the Yellow and Yangtze valleys, China. We have redated Ban Chiang and Non Nok Tha, as well as the sites of Ban Na Di and Ban Lum Khao, and here present 105 radiocarbon determinations that strongly support the latter model. The statistical analysis of the results using a Bayesian approach allows us to examine the data at a regional level, elucidate the timing of arrival of copper base technology in Southeast Asia and consider its social impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles F. W. Higham
- Department of Anthropology and Archaeology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
- * E-mail:
| | - Katerina Douka
- Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Unit, Research Laboratory for Archaeology and the History of Art, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas F. G. Higham
- Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Unit, Research Laboratory for Archaeology and the History of Art, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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