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Malanoski CM, Farnsworth A, Lunt DJ, Valdes PJ, Saupe EE. Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales. Science 2024; 383:1130-1134. [PMID: 38452067 DOI: 10.1126/science.adj5763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/29/2024] [Indexed: 03/09/2024]
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cooper M Malanoski
- Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3AN, UK
| | - Alex Farnsworth
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Daniel J Lunt
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Paul J Valdes
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Erin E Saupe
- Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3AN, UK
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2
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Finnegan S, Harnik PG, Lockwood R, Lotze HK, McClenachan L, Kahanamoku SS. Using the Fossil Record to Understand Extinction Risk and Inform Marine Conservation in a Changing World. ANNUAL REVIEW OF MARINE SCIENCE 2024; 16:307-333. [PMID: 37683272 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-marine-021723-095235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/10/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the long-term effects of ongoing global environmental change on marine ecosystems requires a cross-disciplinary approach. Deep-time and recent fossil records can contribute by identifying traits and environmental conditions associated with elevated extinction risk during analogous events in the geologic past and by providing baseline data that can be used to assess historical change and set management and restoration targets and benchmarks. Here, we review the ecological and environmental information available in the marine fossil record and discuss how these archives can be used to inform current extinction risk assessments as well as marine conservation strategies and decision-making at global to local scales. As we consider future research directions in deep-time and conservationpaleobiology, we emphasize the need for coproduced research that unites researchers, conservation practitioners, and policymakers with the communities for whom the impacts of climate and global change are most imminent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seth Finnegan
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA; ,
| | - Paul G Harnik
- Department of Earth and Environmental Geosciences, Colgate University, Hamilton, New York, USA;
| | - Rowan Lockwood
- Department of Geology, William & Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA;
| | - Heike K Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada;
| | - Loren McClenachan
- Department of History and School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada;
| | - Sara S Kahanamoku
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA; ,
- Hawai'i Sea Grant College Program, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawai'i, USA
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3
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Dornelas M, Chase JM, Gotelli NJ, Magurran AE, McGill BJ, Antão LH, Blowes SA, Daskalova GN, Leung B, Martins IS, Moyes F, Myers-Smith IH, Thomas CD, Vellend M. Looking back on biodiversity change: lessons for the road ahead. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220199. [PMID: 37246380 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2022] [Accepted: 03/24/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Dornelas
- Centre for Biological Diversity, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9TH, UK
- Guia Marine Laboratory, MARE, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa, Cascais 2750-374, Portugal
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Jonathan M Chase
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Department of Computer Sciences, Martin Luther University, Halle-Wittenberg 06099, Germany
| | | | - Anne E Magurran
- Centre for Biological Diversity, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9TH, UK
| | - Brian J McGill
- School of Biology and Ecology and Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions, University of Maine, Orono, ME, USA
| | - Laura H Antão
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Shane A Blowes
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Department of Computer Sciences, Martin Luther University, Halle-Wittenberg 06099, Germany
| | - Gergana N Daskalova
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Brian Leung
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada H3A 1B1
| | - Inês S Martins
- Centre for Biological Diversity, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9TH, UK
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Faye Moyes
- Centre for Biological Diversity, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9TH, UK
| | | | - Chris D Thomas
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Mark Vellend
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK
- Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada J1K 2R1
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4
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Kaiho K. An animal crisis caused by pollution, deforestation, and warming in the late 21st century and exacerbation by nuclear war. Heliyon 2023; 9:e15221. [PMID: 37095985 PMCID: PMC10122020 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Revised: 02/20/2023] [Accepted: 03/30/2023] [Indexed: 04/08/2023] Open
Abstract
An environmental-animal crisis is currently ongoing and is becoming increasingly severe due to human activity. However, the magnitude, timing, and processes related to this crisis are unclear. This paper clarifies the likely magnitude and timing of animal extinctions and changes in the contribution rates of select causes (global warming, pollution, deforestation, and two hypothetical nuclear conflicts) of animal extinctions during 2000-2300 CE. This paper demonstrates that an animal crisis marked by a 5-13% terrestrial tetrapod species loss and 2-6% marine animal species loss will occur in the next generation during 2060-2080 CE if humans do not engage in nuclear wars. These variations are due to magnitudes of pollution, deforestation, and global warming. The main causes of this crisis will change from pollution and deforestation to deforestation in 2030 under the low CO2 emission scenarios but will change from pollution and deforestation to deforestation in 2070 and then to deforestation and global warming after 2090 under the medium CO2 emissions. A nuclear conflict will increase animal species loss up to approximately 40-70% for terrestrial tetrapod species and 25-50% for marine animal species, including errors. Therefore, this study shows that the animal species conservation priority is to prevent nuclear war, reduce deforestation rates, decrease pollution, and limit global warming, in this order.
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Thirukanthan CS, Azra MN, Lananan F, Sara’ G, Grinfelde I, Rudovica V, Vincevica-Gaile Z, Burlakovs J. The Evolution of Coral Reef under Changing Climate: A Scientometric Review. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:ani13050949. [PMID: 36899805 PMCID: PMC10000160 DOI: 10.3390/ani13050949] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2023] [Revised: 02/19/2023] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2023] Open
Abstract
In this scientometric review, we employ the Web of Science Core Collection to assess current publications and research trends regarding coral reefs in relation to climate change. Thirty-seven keywords for climate change and seven keywords for coral reefs were used in the analysis of 7743 articles on coral reefs and climate change. The field entered an accelerated uptrend phase in 2016, and it is anticipated that this phase will last for the next 5 to 10 years of research publication and citation. The United States and Australia have produced the greatest number of publications in this field. A cluster (i.e., focused issue) analysis showed that coral bleaching dominated the literature from 2000 to 2010, ocean acidification from 2010 to 2020, and sea-level rise, as well as the central Red Sea (Africa/Asia), in 2021. Three different types of keywords appear in the analysis based on which are the (i) most recent (2021), (ii) most influential (highly cited), and (iii) mostly used (frequently used keywords in the article) in the field. The Great Barrier Reef, which is found in the waters of Australia, is thought to be the subject of current coral reef and climate change research. Interestingly, climate-induced temperature changes in "ocean warming" and "sea surface temperature" are the most recent significant and dominant keywords in the coral reef and climate change area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chandra Segaran Thirukanthan
- Institute of Marine Biotechnology (IMB), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu (UMT), Kuala Nerus 21030, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Mohamad Nor Azra
- Institute of Marine Biotechnology (IMB), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu (UMT), Kuala Nerus 21030, Terengganu, Malaysia
- Research Center for Marine and Land Bioindustry, Earth Sciences and Maritime Organization, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Pemenang 83352, Indonesia
- Correspondence: (M.N.A.); (J.B.); Tel.: +609-6683785 (M.N.A.)
| | - Fathurrahman Lananan
- East Coast Environmental Research Institute, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (UniSZA), Gong Badak Campus, Kuala Nerus 21300, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Gianluca Sara’
- Laboratory of Ecology, Earth and Marine Sciences Department, University of Palermo, 90133 Palermo, Italy
| | - Inga Grinfelde
- Laboratory of Forest and Water Resources, Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies, LV-3001 Jelgava, Latvia
| | - Vite Rudovica
- Department of Analytical Chemistry, University of Latvia, LV-1004 Riga, Latvia
| | | | - Juris Burlakovs
- Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, 31-261 Krakow, Poland
- Correspondence: (M.N.A.); (J.B.); Tel.: +609-6683785 (M.N.A.)
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Dillon EM, Pier JQ, Smith JA, Raja NB, Dimitrijević D, Austin EL, Cybulski JD, De Entrambasaguas J, Durham SR, Grether CM, Haldar HS, Kocáková K, Lin CH, Mazzini I, Mychajliw AM, Ollendorf AL, Pimiento C, Regalado Fernández OR, Smith IE, Dietl GP. What is conservation paleobiology? Tracking 20 years of research and development. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.1031483] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Conservation paleobiology has coalesced over the last two decades since its formal coining, united by the goal of applying geohistorical records to inform the conservation, management, and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, the field is still attempting to form an identity distinct from its academic roots. Here, we ask a deceptively simple question: What is conservation paleobiology? To track its development as a field, we synthesize complementary perspectives from a survey of the scientific community that is familiar with conservation paleobiology and a systematic literature review of publications that use the term. We present an overview of conservation paleobiology’s research scope and compare survey participants’ perceptions of what it is and what it should be as a field. We find that conservation paleobiologists use a variety of geohistorical data in their work, although research is typified by near-time records of marine molluscs and terrestrial mammals collected over local to regional spatial scales. Our results also confirm the field’s broad disciplinary basis: survey participants indicated that conservation paleobiology can incorporate information from a wide range of disciplines spanning conservation biology, ecology, historical ecology, paleontology, and archaeology. Finally, we show that conservation paleobiologists have yet to reach a consensus on how applied the field should be in practice. The survey revealed that many participants thought the field should be more applied but that most do not currently engage with conservation practice. Reflecting on how conservation paleobiology has developed over the last two decades, we discuss opportunities to promote community cohesion, strengthen collaborations within conservation science, and align training priorities with the field’s identity as it continues to crystallize.
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Blaxter M, Archibald JM, Childers AK, Coddington JA, Crandall KA, Di Palma F, Durbin R, Edwards SV, Graves JAM, Hackett KJ, Hall N, Jarvis ED, Johnson RN, Karlsson EK, Kress WJ, Kuraku S, Lawniczak MKN, Lindblad-Toh K, Lopez JV, Moran NA, Robinson GE, Ryder OA, Shapiro B, Soltis PS, Warnow T, Zhang G, Lewin HA. Why sequence all eukaryotes? Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2115636118. [PMID: 35042801 PMCID: PMC8795522 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2115636118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Life on Earth has evolved from initial simplicity to the astounding complexity we experience today. Bacteria and archaea have largely excelled in metabolic diversification, but eukaryotes additionally display abundant morphological innovation. How have these innovations come about and what constraints are there on the origins of novelty and the continuing maintenance of biodiversity on Earth? The history of life and the code for the working parts of cells and systems are written in the genome. The Earth BioGenome Project has proposed that the genomes of all extant, named eukaryotes-about 2 million species-should be sequenced to high quality to produce a digital library of life on Earth, beginning with strategic phylogenetic, ecological, and high-impact priorities. Here we discuss why we should sequence all eukaryotic species, not just a representative few scattered across the many branches of the tree of life. We suggest that many questions of evolutionary and ecological significance will only be addressable when whole-genome data representing divergences at all of the branchings in the tree of life or all species in natural ecosystems are available. We envisage that a genomic tree of life will foster understanding of the ongoing processes of speciation, adaptation, and organismal dependencies within entire ecosystems. These explorations will resolve long-standing problems in phylogenetics, evolution, ecology, conservation, agriculture, bioindustry, and medicine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Blaxter
- Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, Cambridge CB10 1SA, United Kingdom;
| | - John M Archibald
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4H7, Canada
| | - Anna K Childers
- Bee Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Beltsville, MD 20705
| | - Jonathan A Coddington
- Global Genome Initiative, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20560
| | - Keith A Crandall
- Computational Biology Institute, Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052
- Department of Invertebrate Zoology, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013
| | - Federica Di Palma
- School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
| | - Richard Durbin
- Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, Cambridge CB10 1SA, United Kingdom
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EH, United Kingdom
| | - Scott V Edwards
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
- Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - Jennifer A M Graves
- School of Life Sciences, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC 751 23, Australia
- University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT 2617, Australia
| | - Kevin J Hackett
- Crop Production and Protection, Office of National Programs, Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD 20705
| | - Neil Hall
- Earlham Institute, Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7UZ, United Kingdom
| | - Erich D Jarvis
- Laboratory of the Neurogenetics of Language, The Rockefeller University, New York, NY 10065
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Chevy Chase, MD 20815
| | - Rebecca N Johnson
- National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20560
| | - Elinor K Karlsson
- Bioinformatics and Integrative Biology, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA 01605
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142
| | - W John Kress
- Botany, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013-7012
| | - Shigehiro Kuraku
- Department of Genomics and Evolutionary Biology, National Institute of Genetics, Mishima, Shizuoka 411-8540, Japan
- Laboratory for Phyloinformatics, RIKEN Center for Biosystems Dynamics Research, Kobe, Hyogo 650-0047, Japan
| | | | - Kerstin Lindblad-Toh
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142
- Science for Life Laboratory, Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology, Uppsala University, Uppsala 751 23, Sweden
| | - Jose V Lopez
- Department of Biological Sciences, Halmos College of Arts and Sciences, Nova Southeastern University, Dania Beach, FL 33004
- Guy Harvey Oceanographic Center, Dania Beach, FL 33004
| | - Nancy A Moran
- Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
| | - Gene E Robinson
- Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801
- Department of Entomology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801
| | - Oliver A Ryder
- Conservation Genetics, Division of Biology, San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, Escondido, CA 92027
- Department of Evolution, Behavior and Ecology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92039
| | - Beth Shapiro
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064
| | - Pamela S Soltis
- Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611
- Biodiversity Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611
| | - Tandy Warnow
- Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61301
| | - Guojie Zhang
- Villum Center for Biodiversity Genomics, Section for Ecology and Evolution, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100, Denmark
- China National Genebank, Beijing Genomics Institute-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Harris A Lewin
- Department of Evolution and Ecology, College of Biological Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
- Department of Population Health and Reproduction, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
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