Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability

Debris flow simulation and modeling of the 2021 flash flood hazard caused by a rock-ice avalanche in the Rishiganga River valley of Uttarakhand

The high mountain ecosystem of the Indian Himalayas has frequently been experiencing primary hazards (like earthquakes, avalanches, and landslides). Often, these events are followed by the triggering of secondary hazards (like landslide dams, debris flows, and flooding), thereby posing massive risks to infrastructure and residents in the region. This study was taken up to understand the dynamics of an extraordinary debris flood disaster in the Rishiganga River valley, Chamoli district of Uttarakhand on 7th February 2021. Rapid mass movements (RAMMS)-debris flow software was employed to recreate the entire sequence of the hazard consisting of a rock-ice slide, mass deposition and erosion along the channel, and subsequent debris flood. Forty-nine scenarios were analyzed for accurate calibration of dry-Coulomb type friction coefficient (µ) and viscous-turbulent friction coefficient (ξ). Consequently, the geomorphologic characteristics of the debris flow were validated using high-resolution satellite image interpretation and field photographs. The volume of detached rock-ice mass was estimated to be 26.42 × 106 m3. At the same time, the RAMMS-derived model outputs for velocity, flow depth, and momentum were found in good agreement with the extent and height of actual debris on the ground. The study highlights an urgent need to identify the glaciers with a high risk of ice avalanches in the Indian Himalayas. The presented modeling approach may be applied in dynamic mountain ecosystems to simulate potential flash floods due to avalanches. Moreover, the information reported in this study can be vital input for improving the district-level disaster management plan.

Scientists' warning of the impacts of climate change on mountains

Mountains are highly diverse in areal extent, geological and climatic context, ecosystems and human activity. As such, mountain environments worldwide are particularly sensitive to the effects of anthropogenic climate change (global warming) as a result of their unique heat balance properties and the presence of climatically-sensitive snow, ice, permafrost and ecosystems. Consequently, mountain systems-in particular cryospheric ones-are currently undergoing unprecedented changes in the Anthropocene. This study identifies and discusses four of the major properties of mountains upon which anthropogenic climate change can impact, and indeed is already doing so. These properties are: the changing mountain cryosphere of glaciers and permafrost; mountain hazards and risk; mountain ecosystems and their services; and mountain communities and infrastructure. It is notable that changes in these different mountain properties do not follow a predictable trajectory of evolution in response to anthropogenic climate change. This demonstrates that different elements of mountain systems exhibit different sensitivities to forcing. The interconnections between these different properties highlight that mountains should be considered as integrated biophysical systems, of which human activity is part. Interrelationships between these mountain properties are discussed through a model of mountain socio-biophysical systems, which provides a framework for examining climate impacts and vulnerabilities. Managing the risks associated with ongoing climate change in mountains requires an integrated approach to climate change impacts monitoring and management.

The three-stage rock failure dynamics of the Drus (Mont Blanc massif, France) since the June 2005 large event

Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the west face of the Drus (Mont Blanc massif, France) has been affected by a retrogressive erosion dynamic marked by large rockfall events. From the 1950s onwards, the rock failure frequency gradually increased until the large rockfall event (292,680 m³) of June 2005, which made the Bonatti Pillar disappear. Aiming to characterize the rock failure activity following this major event, which may be related to permafrost warming, the granitic rock face was scanned each autumn between October 2005 and September 2016 using medium- and long-range terrestrial laser scanners. All the point clouds were successively compared to establish a rockfall source inventory and determine a volume-frequency relationship. Eleven years of monitoring revealed a phase of rock failure activity decay until September 2008, a destabilization phase between September 2008 and November 2011, and a new phase of rock failure activity decay from November 2011 to September 2016. The destabilization phase was marked by three major rockfall events covering a total volume of 61,494 m³, resulting in the progressive collapse of a new pillar located in the northern part of the June 2005 rockfall scar. In the same way as for the Bonatti Pillar, rock failure instability propagated upward with increasing volumes. In addition to these major events, 304 rockfall sources ranging from 0.002 to 476 m³ were detected between 2005 and 2016. The temporal evolution of rock failure activity reveals that after a major event, the number of rockfall sources and the eroded volume both follow a rapid decrease. The rock failure activity is characterized by an exponential decay during the period following the major event and by a power-law decay for the eroded volume. The power law describing the distribution of the source volumes detected between 2005 and 2016 indicates an exponent of 0.48 and an average rock failure activity larger of more than six events larger than 1 m³ per year. Over the 1905–2016 period, a total of 426,611 m³ of rock collapsed from the Drus west face, indicating a very high rock wall retreat rate of 14.4 mm year⁻¹ over a surface of 266,700 m². Averaged over a time window of 1000 years, the long-term retreat rate derived from the frequency density integration of rock failure volumes is 2.9 mm year⁻¹. Despite difficulty in accessing and monitoring the site, our study demonstrates that long-term surveys of high-elevation rock faces are possible and provide valuable information that helps improve our understanding of landscape evolution in mountainous settings subject to permafrost warming.

How well can we simulate complex hydro-geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi-lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

Changing high-mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini (2012) general two-phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back-calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi-lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision-making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of the 2003 and 2015 summer heatwaves on permafrost-affected rock-walls in the Mont Blanc massif

Rockfall is one of the main geomorphological processes that affects the evolution and stability of rock-walls. At high elevations, rockfall is largely climate-driven, very probably because of the warming of rock-wall permafrost. So with the ongoing global warming that drives the degradation of permafrost, the related hazards for people and infrastructure could continue to increase. The heatwave of summer 2015, which affected Western Europe from the end of June to August, had a serious impact on the stability of high-altitude rock-walls, including those in the Mont Blanc massif. A network of observers allowed us to survey the frequency and intensity of rock-wall morphodynamics in 2015, and to verify its relationship with permafrost. These observations were compared with those of the 2003 summer heatwave, identified and quantified by remote sensing. A comparison between the two years shows a fairly similar rockfall pattern in respect of total volumes and high frequencies (about 160 rockfalls >100m³) but the total volume for 2003 is higher than the 2015 one (about 300,000m³ and 170,000m³ respectively). In both cases, rockfalls were numerous but with a low magnitude and occurred in permafrost-affected areas. This suggests a sudden and remarkable deepening of the active layer during these two summers, rather than a longer-term warming of the permafrost body.

Climate change impacts on mass movements--case studies from the European Alps

This paper addresses the current knowledge on climate change impacts on mass movement activity in mountain environments by illustrating characteristic cases of debris flows, rock slope failures and landslides from the French, Italian, and Swiss Alps. It is expected that events are likely to occur less frequently during summer, whereas the anticipated increase of rainfall in spring and fall could likely alter debris-flow activity during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, and December). The magnitude of debris flows could become larger due to larger amounts of sediment delivered to the channels and as a result of the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events. At the same time, however, debris-flow volumes in high-mountain areas will depend chiefly on the stability and/or movement rates of permafrost bodies, and destabilized rock glaciers could lead to debris flows without historic precedents in the future. The frequency of rock slope failures is likely to increase, as excessively warm air temperatures, glacier shrinkage, as well as permafrost warming and thawing will affect and reduce rock slope stability in the direction that adversely affects rock slope stability. Changes in landslide activity in the French and Western Italian Alps will likely depend on differences in elevation. Above 1500 m asl, the projected decrease in snow season duration in future winters and springs will likely affect the frequency, number and seasonality of landslide reactivations. In Piemonte, for instance, 21st century landslides have been demonstrated to occur more frequently in early spring and to be triggered by moderate rainfalls, but also to occur in smaller numbers. On the contrary, and in line with recent observations, events in autumn, characterized by a large spatial density of landslide occurrences might become more scarce in the Piemonte region.

Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.