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Fowler HJ, Ali H, Allan RP, Ban N, Barbero R, Berg P, Blenkinsop S, Cabi NS, Chan S, Dale M, Dunn RJH, Ekström M, Evans JP, Fosser G, Golding B, Guerreiro SB, Hegerl GC, Kahraman A, Kendon EJ, Lenderink G, Lewis E, Li X, O'Gorman PA, Orr HG, Peat KL, Prein AF, Pritchard D, Schär C, Sharma A, Stott PA, Villalobos-Herrera R, Villarini G, Wasko C, Wehner MF, Westra S, Whitford A. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2021; 379:20190542. [PMID: 33641464 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate (6-7% K-1), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hayley J Fowler
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Haider Ali
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Richard P Allan
- Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Nikolina Ban
- Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Renaud Barbero
- National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment, RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Peter Berg
- Hydrology Research Unit, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
| | | | - Nalan Senol Cabi
- Willis Research Network (WRN), Willis Towers Watson (WTW), London, UK
| | - Steven Chan
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
| | | | | | - Marie Ekström
- School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, UK
| | - Jason P Evans
- Climate Change Research Centre and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | | | - Selma B Guerreiro
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | | | - Abdullah Kahraman
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
| | | | - Geert Lenderink
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands
| | - Elizabeth Lewis
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Xiaofeng Li
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Paul A O'Gorman
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
| | | | - Katy L Peat
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Environment Agency, Horizon House, Bristol, UK
| | | | - David Pritchard
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Christoph Schär
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Ashish Sharma
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Peter A Stott
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Roberto Villalobos-Herrera
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- School of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Costa Rica, Ciudad Universitaria Rodrigo Facio, San José, Costa Rica
| | - Gabriele Villarini
- IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
| | - Conrad Wasko
- Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Michael F Wehner
- Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, San Francisco, USA
| | - Seth Westra
- School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Anna Whitford
- School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
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