Building a mechanistic understanding of predation with GPS-based movement data

Advances in biologging can identify nuanced energetic costs and gains in predators

Foraging is a key driver of animal movement patterns, with specific challenges for predators which must search for mobile prey. These patterns are increasingly impacted by global changes, principally in land use and climate. Understanding the degree of flexibility in predator foraging and social strategies is pertinent to wildlife conservation under global change, including potential top-down effects on wider ecosystems. Here we propose key future research directions to better understand foraging strategies and social flexibility in predators. In particular, rapid continued advances in biologging technology are helping to record and understand dynamic behavioural and movement responses of animals to environmental changes, and their energetic consequences. Data collection can be optimised by calibrating behavioural interpretation methods in captive settings and strategic tagging decisions within and between social groups. Importantly, many species' social systems are increasingly being found to be more flexible than originally described in the literature, which may be more readily detectable through biologging approaches than behavioural observation. Integrating the effects of the physical landscape and biotic interactions will be key to explaining and predicting animal movements and energetic balance in a changing world.

Differential provisioning roles, prey size, and prey abundance shape the dynamic feeding behavior of gray wolves

The demands of raising dependent young can influence the feeding behaviors of social carnivores, especially for individuals that are primarily responsible for provisioning young. We investigated how the feeding and provisioning behavior of a social carnivore, gray wolves (Canis lupus), are connected and shaped by extrinsic and intrinsic factors, and whether and how these patterns changed throughout the pup-rearing season (April-August). We found breeding wolves had shorter handling times of prey, lower probability of returning to kills, and greater probability of returning to homesites after kills compared to subordinate individuals. However, the feeding and provisioning behaviors of breeding individuals changed considerably over the pup-rearing season. Wolves had longer handling times and returned to provision pups directly after kills less frequently as annual prey abundance decreased. These patterns indicate that adult wolves prioritize meeting their own energetic demands over those of their pups when prey abundance decreases. We suggest that differential provisioning of offspring based on prey abundance is a behavioral mechanism by which group size adjusts to available resources via changes in neonate survival.

When death comes: linking predator-prey activity patterns to timing of mortality to understand predation risk

The assumption that activity and foraging are risky for prey underlies many predator-prey theories and has led to the use of predator-prey activity overlap as a proxy of predation risk. However, the simultaneous measures of prey and predator activity along with timing of predation required to test this assumption have not been available. Here, we used accelerometry data on snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) to determine activity patterns of prey and predators and match these to precise timing of predation. Surprisingly we found that lynx kills of hares were as likely to occur during the day when hares were inactive as at night when hares were active. We also found that activity rates of hares were not related to the chance of predation at daily and weekly scales, whereas lynx activity rates positively affected the diel pattern of lynx predation on hares and their weekly kill rates of hares. Our findings suggest that predator-prey diel activity overlap may not always be a good proxy of predation risk, and highlight a need for examining the link between predation and spatio-temporal behaviour of predator and prey to improve our understanding of how predator-prey behavioural interactions drive predation risk.

Predicting kill sites of an apex predator from GPS data in different multiprey systems

Kill rates are a central parameter to assess the impact of predation on prey species. An accurate estimation of kill rates requires a correct identification of kill sites, often achieved by field-checking GPS location clusters (GLCs). However, there are potential sources of error included in kill-site identification, such as failing to detect GLCs that are kill sites, and misclassifying the generated GLCs (e.g., kill for nonkill) that were not field checked. Here, we address these two sources of error using a large GPS dataset of collared Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), an apex predator of conservation concern in Europe, in three multiprey systems, with different combinations of wild, semidomestic, and domestic prey. We first used a subsampling approach to investigate how different GPS-fix schedules affected the detection of GLC-indicated kill sites. Then, we evaluated the potential of the random forest algorithm to classify GLCs as nonkills, small prey kills, and ungulate kills. We show that the number of fixes can be reduced from seven to three fixes per night without missing more than 5% of the ungulate kills, in a system composed of wild prey. Reducing the number of fixes per 24 h decreased the probability of detecting GLCs connected with kill sites, particularly those of semidomestic or domestic prey, and small prey. Random forest successfully predicted between 73%-90% of ungulate kills, but failed to classify most small prey in all systems, with sensitivity (true positive rate) lower than 65%. Additionally, removing domestic prey improved the algorithm's overall accuracy. We provide a set of recommendations for studies focusing on kill-site detection that can be considered for other large carnivore species in addition to the Eurasian lynx. We recommend caution when working in systems including domestic prey, as the odds of underestimating kill rates are higher.

Movement, Space Use, and the Responses of Coral Reef Fish to Climate Change

Anthropogenic climate change and other localized stressors have led to the widespread degradation of coral reefs, characterized by losses of live coral, reduced structural complexity, and shifts in benthic community composition. These changes have altered the composition of reef fish assemblages with important consequences for ecosystem function. Animal movement and space use are critically important to population dynamics, community assembly, and species coexistence. In this perspective, I discuss how studies of reef fish movement and space use could help us to elucidate the effects of climate change on reef fish assemblages and the functions they provide. In addition to describing how reef fish space use relates to resource abundance and the intrinsic characteristics of reef fish (e.g., body size), we should begin to take a mechanistic approach to understanding movement in reef fish and to investigate the role of movement in mediating species interactions on coral reefs. Technological advances in animal tracking and biotelemetry, as well as methodological advances in the analysis of movement, will aid in this endeavor. Baseline studies of reef fish movement and space use and their effect on community assembly and species coexistence will provide us with important information for predicting how climate change will influence reef fish assemblages.

Feeding ecology of the endangered Asiatic wild dogs (Cuon alpinus) across tropical forests of the Central Indian Landscape

Studies on resource utilisation by carnivores are essential as they aid in assessing their role in a community, by unravelling predator–prey relationships. Globally, prey depletion is one of the primary causes of declining Asiatic wild dog (dhole) populations. Therefore, it is essential to examine their diet across their range. Our study presents insights into dhole feeding ecology across multiple sites from the central Indian landscape of Maharashtra, India, for the first time. We conducted scat analysis using a subset of genetically identified scats and collected additional data from kills observed while tracking radio-collared dholes and other known packs from 2 study sites. We analysed 861 scats, and 191 dhole kills to identify species and age class of prey. We estimated the relative contribution of various prey, utilising non-linear biomass models of prey consumption. Overall, wild ungulates like sambar and chital were the principal prey in terms of biomass (sambar 61.08%; chital 19.08%) and number of prey consumed (sambar 39.28%; chital 13.83%). An analysis of kill data also suggested that dholes strongly preferred the two deer species; and differential selection of age classes was observed at the 2 study sites. Our study can potentially help manage and conserve this important population of an endangered carnivore.

Standardizing protocols for determining the cause of mortality in wildlife studies

Mortality site investigations of telemetered wildlife are important for cause‐specific survival analyses and understanding underlying causes of observed population dynamics. Yet, eroding ecoliteracy and a lack of quality control in data collection can lead researchers to make incorrect conclusions, which may negatively impact management decisions for wildlife populations. We reviewed a random sample of 50 peer‐reviewed studies published between 2000 and 2019 on survival and cause‐specific mortality of ungulates monitored with telemetry devices. This concise review revealed extensive variation in reporting of field procedures, with many studies omitting critical information for the cause of mortality inference. Field protocols used to investigate mortality sites and ascertain the cause of mortality are often minimally described and frequently fail to address how investigators dealt with uncertainty. We outline a step‐by‐step procedure for mortality site investigations of telemetered ungulates, including evidence that should be documented in the field. Specifically, we highlight data that can be useful to differentiate predation from scavenging and more conclusively identify the predator species that killed the ungulate. We also outline how uncertainty in identifying the cause of mortality could be acknowledged and reported. We demonstrate the importance of rigorous protocols and prompt site investigations using data from our 5‐year study on survival and cause‐specific mortality of telemetered mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in northern California. Over the course of our study, we visited mortality sites of neonates (n = 91) and adults (n = 23) to ascertain the cause of mortality. Rapid site visitations significantly improved the successful identification of the cause of mortality and confidence levels for neonates. We discuss the need for rigorous and standardized protocols that include measures of confidence for mortality site investigations. We invite reviewers and journal editors to encourage authors to provide supportive information associated with the identification of causes of mortality, including uncertainty.

Functional Responses Shape Node and Network Level Properties of a Simplified Boreal Food Web

Ecological communities are fundamentally connected through a network of trophic interactions that are often complex and difficult to model. Substantial variation exists in the nature and magnitude of these interactions across various predators and prey and through time. However, the empirical data needed to characterize these relationships are difficult to obtain in natural systems, even for relatively simple food webs. Consequently, prey-dependent relationships and specifically the hyperbolic form (Holling’s Type II), in which prey consumption increases with prey density but ultimately becomes saturated or limited by the time spent handling prey, are most widely used albeit often without knowledge of their appropriateness. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of a simplified food web model for a natural, boreal system in the Kluane region of the Yukon, Canada to the type of functional response used. Intensive study of this community has permitted best-fit functional response relationships to be determined, which comprise linear (type I), hyperbolic (type II), sigmoidal (type III), prey- and ratio-dependent relationships, and inverse relationships where kill rates of alternate prey are driven by densities of the focal prey. We compare node- and network-level properties for a food web where interaction strengths are estimated using best-fit functional responses to one where interaction strengths are estimated exclusively using prey-dependent hyperbolic functional responses. We show that hyperbolic functional responses alone fail to capture important ecological interactions such as prey switching, surplus killing and caching, and predator interference, that in turn affect estimates of cumulative kill rates, vulnerability of prey, generality of predators, and connectance. Exclusive use of hyperbolic functional responses also affected trends observed in these metrics over time and underestimated annual variation in several metrics, which is important given that interaction strengths are typically estimated over relatively short time periods. Our findings highlight the need for more comprehensive research aimed at characterizing functional response relationships when modeling predator-prey interactions and food web structure and function, as we work toward a mechanistic understanding linking food web structure and community dynamics in natural systems.

Kill rates and associated ecological factors for an apex predator

Kill rates and functional responses are fundamental to the study of predator ecology and the understanding of predatory-prey dynamics. As the most widely distributed apex predator in the western hemisphere, pumas (Puma concolor) have been well studied, yet a synthesis of their kill rates is currently lacking. We reviewed the literature and compiled data on sex- and age-specific kill rate estimates of pumas on ungulates, and conducted analyses aimed at understanding ecological factors explaining the observed spatial variation. Kill rate studies on pumas, while numerous, were primarily conducted in Temperate Conifer Forests (< 10% of puma range), revealing a dearth of knowledge across much of their range, especially from tropical and subtropical habitats. Across studies, kill rates in ungulates/week were highest for adult females with kitten(s) (1.24 ± 0.41 ungulates/week) but did not vary significantly between adult males (0.84 ± 0.18) and solitary adult females (0.99 ± 0.26). Kill rates in kg/day differed only marginally among reproductive classes. Kill rates of adult pumas increased with ungulate density, particularly for males. Ungulate species richness had a weak negative association with adult male kill rates. Neither scavenger richness, puma density, the proportion of non-ungulate prey in the diet, nor regional human population density had a significant effect on ungulate kill rates, but additional studies and standardization would provide further insights. Our results had a strong temperate-ecosystem bias highlighting the need for further research across the diverse biomes pumas occupy to fully interpret kill rates for the species. Data from more populations would also allow for multivariate analyses providing deeper inference into the ecological and behavioural factors driving kill rates and functional responses of pumas, and apex predators in general.

Close encounters of the fatal kind: Landscape features associated with central mountain caribou mortalities

In western Canada, anthropogenic disturbances resulting from resource extraction activities are associated with habitat loss and altered predator-prey dynamics. These habitat changes are linked to increased predation risk and unsustainable mortality rates for caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). To inform effective habitat restoration, our goal was to examine whether specific linear disturbance features were associated with caribou predation in central mountain caribou ranges. We used predation-caused caribou mortalities and caribou GPS-collar data collected between 2008 and 2015 to assess caribou predation risk within and outside of protected areas at four spatio-temporal scales: habitat use during the (a) 30 days, (b) 7 days, and (c) 24 hours prior to caribou being killed, and (d) characteristics at caribou kill site locations. Outside of protected areas, predation risk increased closer to pipelines, seismic lines, and streams. Within protected areas, predation risk increased closer to alpine habitat. Factors predicting predation risk differed among spatio-temporal scales and linear feature types: predation risk increased closer to pipelines during the 30 and 7 days prior to caribou being killed and closer to seismic lines during the 30 days, 7 days, and 24 hours prior, but decreased closer to roads during the 30 days prior to being killed. By assessing habitat use prior to caribou being killed, we identified caribou predation risk factors that would not have been detected by analysis of kill site locations alone. These results provide further evidence that restoration of anthropogenic linear disturbance features should be an immediate priority for caribou recovery in central mountain caribou ranges.

Extensive daily movement rates measured in territorial arctic foxes

An animal's movement rate is a central metric of movement ecology as it correlates with its energy acquisition and expenditure. Obtaining accurate estimates of movement rate is challenging, especially in small highly mobile species where GPS battery size limits fix frequency, and geolocation technology limits positions' precision. In this study, we used high GPS fix frequencies to evaluate movement rates in eight territorial arctic foxes on Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada) in July-August 2018. We also assessed the effects of fix interval and location error on estimated movement rates. We obtained 96 fox-days of data with a fix interval of 4 min and 12 fox-days with an interval of 30 s. We subsampled the latter dataset to simulate six longer fix intervals ranging from 1 to 60 min and estimated daily distances traveled by adding linear distances between successive locations. When estimated with a fix interval of 4 min, daily distances traveled by arctic foxes averaged 51.9 ± 11.7 km and reached 76.5 km. GPS location error averaged 11 m. Daily distances estimated at fix intervals longer than 4 min were greatly underestimated as fix intervals increased, because of linear estimation of tortuous movements. Conversely, daily distances estimated at fix intervals as small as 30 s were likely overestimated due to location error. To our knowledge, no other territorial terrestrial carnivore was shown to routinely travel daily distances as large as those observed here for arctic foxes. Our results generate new hypotheses and research directions regarding the foraging ecology of highly mobile predators. Furthermore, our empirical assessment of the effects of fix interval and location error on estimated movement rates can guide the design and interpretation of future studies on the movement ecology of small opportunistic foragers.

The context dependence of non-consumptive predator effects

Non-consumptive predator effects (NCEs) are now widely recognised for their capacity to shape ecosystem structure and function. Yet, forecasting the propagation of these predator-induced trait changes through particular communities remains a challenge. Accordingly, focusing on plasticity in prey anti-predator behaviours, we conceptualise the multi-stage process by which predators trigger direct and indirect NCEs, review and distil potential drivers of contingencies into three key categories (properties of the prey, predator and setting), and then provide a general framework for predicting both the nature and strength of direct NCEs. Our review underscores the myriad factors that can generate NCE contingencies while guiding how research might better anticipate and account for them. Moreover, our synthesis highlights the value of mapping both habitat domains and prey-specific patterns of evasion success ('evasion landscapes') as the basis for predicting how direct NCEs are likely to manifest in any particular community. Looking ahead, we highlight two key knowledge gaps that continue to impede a comprehensive understanding of non-consumptive predator-prey interactions and their ecosystem consequences; namely, insufficient empirical exploration of (1) context-dependent indirect NCEs and (2) the ways in which direct and indirect NCEs are shaped interactively by multiple drivers of context dependence.

How range residency and long-range perception change encounter rates

Encounter rates link movement strategies to intra- and inter-specific interactions, and therefore translate individual movement behavior into higher-level ecological processes. Indeed, a large body of interacting population theory rests on the law of mass action, which can be derived from assumptions of Brownian motion in an enclosed container with exclusively local perception. These assumptions imply completely uniform space use, individual home ranges equivalent to the population range, and encounter dependent on movement paths actually crossing. Mounting empirical evidence, however, suggests that animals use space non-uniformly, occupy home ranges substantially smaller than the population range, and are often capable of nonlocal perception. Here, we explore how these empirically supported behaviors change pairwise encounter rates. Specifically, we derive novel analytical expressions for encounter rates under Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, which features non-uniform space use and allows individual home ranges to differ from the population range. We compare OU-based encounter predictions to those of Reflected Brownian Motion, from which the law of mass action can be derived. For both models, we further explore how the interplay between the scale of perception and home-range size affects encounter rates. We find that neglecting realistic movement and perceptual behaviors can lead to systematic, non-negligible biases in encounter-rate predictions.

Testing the influence of habitat experienced during the natal phase on habitat selection later in life in Scandinavian wolves

Natal habitat preference induction (NHPI) occurs when characteristics of the natal habitat influence the future habitat selection of an animal. However, the influence of NHPI after the dispersal phase has received remarkably little attention. We tested whether exposure to humans in the natal habitat helps understand why some adult wolves Canis lupus may approach human settlements more than other conspecifics, a question of both ecological and management interest. We quantified habitat selection patterns within home ranges using resource selection functions and GPS data from 21 wolf pairs in Scandinavia. We identified the natal territory of each wolf with genetic parental assignment, and we used human-related characteristics within the natal territory to estimate the degree of anthropogenic influence in the early life of each wolf. When the female of the adult wolf pair was born in an area with a high degree of anthropogenic influence, the wolf pair tended to select areas further away from humans, compared to wolf pairs from natal territories with a low degree of anthropogenic influence. Yet the pattern was statistically weak, we suggest that our methodological approach can be useful in other systems to better understand NHPI and to inform management  about human-wildlife interactions.

Hunger mediates apex predator's risk avoidance response in wildland-urban interface

Conflicts between large mammalian predators and humans present a challenge to conservation efforts, as these events drive human attitudes and policies concerning predator species. Unfortunately, generalities portrayed in many empirical carnivore landscape selection studies do not provide an explanation for a predator's occasional use of residential development preceding a carnivore-human conflict event. In some cases, predators may perceive residential development as a risk-reward trade-off. We examine whether state-dependent mortality risk-sensitive foraging can explain an apex carnivore's (Puma concolor) occasional utilization of residential areas. We assess whether puma balance the risk and rewards in a system characterized by a gradient of housing densities ranging from wildland to suburban. Puma GPS location data, characterized as hunting and feeding locations, were used to assess landscape variables governing hunting success and hunting site selection. Hunting site selection behaviour was then analysed conditional on indicators of hunger state. Residential development provided a high energetic reward to puma based on increases in prey availability and hunting success rates associated with increased housing density. Despite a higher energetic reward, hunting site selection analysis indicated that pumas generally avoided residential development, a landscape type attributed with higher puma mortality risk. However, when a puma experienced periods of extended hunger, risk avoidance behaviour towards housing waned. This study demonstrates that an apex carnivore faces a trade-off between acquiring energetic rewards and avoiding risks associated with human housing. Periods of hunger can help explain an apex predator's occasional use of developed landscapes and thus the rare conflicts in the wildland-urban interface. Apex carnivore movement behaviours in relation to human conflicts are best understood as a three-player community-level interaction incorporating wild prey distribution.

Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread

An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.

Bed site selection by a subordinate predator: an example with the cougar (Puma concolor) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

As technology has improved, our ability to study cryptic animal behavior has increased. Bed site selection is one such example. Among prey species, bed site selection provides thermoregulatory benefits and mitigates predation risk, and may directly influence survival. We conducted research to test whether a subordinate carnivore also selected beds with similar characteristics in an ecosystem supporting a multi-species guild of competing predators. We employed a model comparison approach in which we tested whether cougar (Puma concolor) bed site attributes supported the thermoregulatory versus the predator avoidance hypotheses, or exhibited characteristics supporting both hypotheses. Between 2012-2016, we investigated 599 cougar bed sites in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and examined attributes at two scales: the landscape (second-order, n = 599) and the microsite (fourth order, n = 140). At the landscape scale, cougars selected bed sites in winter that supported both the thermoregulatory and predator avoidance hypotheses: bed sites were on steeper slopes but at lower elevations, closer to the forest edge, away from sagebrush and meadow habitat types, and on southern, eastern, and western-facing slopes. In the summer, bed attributes supported the predator avoidance hypothesis over the thermoregulation hypothesis: beds were closer to forest edges, away from sagebrush and meadow habitat classes, and on steeper slopes. At the microsite scale, cougar bed attributes in both the winter and summer supported both the predator avoidance and thermoregulatory hypotheses: they selected bed sites with high canopy cover, high vegetative concealment, and in a rugged habitat class characterized by cliff bands and talus fields. We found that just like prey species, a subordinate predator selected bed sites that facilitated both thermoregulatory and anti-predator functions. In conclusion, we believe that measuring bed site attributes may provide a novel means of measuring the use of refugia by subordinate predators, and ultimately provide new insights into the habitat requirements and energetics of subordinate carnivores.

Territory surveillance and prey management: Wolves keep track of space and time

Identifying behavioral mechanisms that underlie observed movement patterns is difficult when animals employ sophisticated cognitive‐based strategies. Such strategies may arise when timing of return visits is important, for instance to allow for resource renewal or territorial patrolling. We fitted spatially explicit random‐walk models to GPS movement data of six wolves (Canis lupus; Linnaeus, 1758) from Alberta, Canada to investigate the importance of the following: (1) territorial surveillance likely related to renewal of scent marks along territorial edges, to reduce intraspecific risk among packs, and (2) delay in return to recently hunted areas, which may be related to anti‐predator responses of prey under varying prey densities. The movement models incorporated the spatiotemporal variable “time since last visit,” which acts as a wolf's memory index of its travel history and is integrated into the movement decision along with its position in relation to territory boundaries and information on local prey densities. We used a model selection framework to test hypotheses about the combined importance of these variables in wolf movement strategies. Time‐dependent movement for territory surveillance was supported by all wolf movement tracks. Wolves generally avoided territory edges, but this avoidance was reduced as time since last visit increased. Time‐dependent prey management was weak except in one wolf. This wolf selected locations with longer time since last visit and lower prey density, which led to a longer delay in revisiting high prey density sites. Our study shows that we can use spatially explicit random walks to identify behavioral strategies that merge environmental information and explicit spatiotemporal information on past movements (i.e., “when” and “where”) to make movement decisions. The approach allows us to better understand cognition‐based movement in relation to dynamic environments and resources.

Human–carnivore competition for antlered ungulates: do pumas select for bulls and bucks?

Context Many institutions of wildlife management and their hunting constituents tend to value ungulates over large carnivores, in part due to financial incentives associated with ungulate hunting over carnivore hunting. This system benefits from mythology that presents large carnivores as competitors for antlered male ungulates most prized by the hunting community. Aims We explored puma (Puma concolor) foraging and prey selection in two study areas in the Rocky Mountains, USA, to test whether pumas were competing with human hunters for antlered elk (Cervus elaphus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). Methods We employed GPS technology to track pumas and document their prey. We measured population- and individual-level selection by comparing prey killed by pumas to two estimates of prey availability: (1) landscape-level as determined by annual agency game counts; and (2) total prey killed by marked pumas. Key results Pumas in both study systems killed small numbers of antlered elk and mule deer. Pumas exhibited avoidance of mature elk, instead strongly selecting for elk calves over any other age or sex class. Pumas in both systems also selected for mule deer fawns; however, they also exhibited small positive selection (Jacob’s index of 0.08 in CO and 0.11 in WY on a scale of 0.0–1.0) for antlered mule deer. Conclusions In terms of numbers killed, pumas were not a competitor with human hunters for either antlered species. In terms of prey selection, pumas showed that they may be greater competition for rare antlered mule deer but not for antlered elk. In both study sites, antlered elk and deer remained at levels at which they could perform their ecological functions. Implications Our results highlight the fact that the overhunting of large carnivores over competition for antlered ungulates is mostly unfounded; we should instead focus management, media attention and conservation science on disentangling the complex ecology driving localised declines of mule deer, elk and other important ungulate resources, many of which are anthropogenic in nature and can be addressed.

Habitat-mediated timing of migration in polar bears: an individual perspective

Migration phenology is largely determined by how animals respond to seasonal changes in environmental conditions. Our perception of the relationship between migratory behavior and environmental cues can vary depending on the spatial scale at which these interactions are measured. Understanding the behavioral mechanisms behind population‐scale movements requires knowledge of how individuals respond to local cues. We show how time‐to‐event models can be used to predict what factors are associated with the timing of an individual's migratory behavior using data from GPS collared polar bears (Ursus maritimus) that move seasonally between sea ice and terrestrial habitats. We found the concentration of sea ice that bears experience at a local level, along with the duration of exposure to these conditions, was most associated with individual migration timing. Our results corroborate studies that assume thresholds of >50% sea ice concentration are necessary for suitable polar bear habitat; however, continued periods (e.g., days to weeks) of exposure to suboptimal ice concentrations during seasonal melting were required before the proportion of bears migrating to land increased substantially. Time‐to‐event models are advantageous for examining individual movement patterns because they account for the idea that animals make decisions based on an accumulation of knowledge from the landscapes they move through and not simply the environment they are exposed to at the time of a decision. Understanding the migration behavior of polar bears moving between terrestrial and marine habitat, at multiple spatiotemporal scales, will be a major aspect of quantifying observed and potential demographic responses to climate‐induced environmental changes.

Population- and individual-level prey selection by a solitary predator as determined with two estimates of prey availability

Prey selection is exhibited by predator populations that kill a prey species disproportionate to its availability, or alternatively, individual predators that select prey disproportionate to the mean selection exhibited by their populations. Prey selection is a simple calculation when one can determine prey availability; however, measuring prey availability is challenging. We compared population- and individual-level prey selection as determined with two measures of prey availability for five ungulate species killed by pumas (Puma concolor (L., 1771)) in the Southern Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA: (1) annual prey counts and (2) total prey killed by marked pumas. We also tested whether individual pumas in the population exhibited a narrower dietary niche breadth compared with their population as a whole. The two methods yielded different estimates of prey availability and highlighted the need to consciously match prey availability estimates with appropriate ecological questions. Prey counts may have overestimated elk (Cervus canadensis (Erxleben, 1777)) abundance and underestimated deer abundance, whereas predation data may have better captured the influence of prey size on puma-specific prey vulnerability and availability. Prey counts were the more appropriate metric for analyzing population-level prey selection or differences in interspecific foraging, whereas total prey killed was the more appropriate metric for intraspecific comparisons.

Identification of kill sites from GPS clusters for jaguars (Panthera onca) in the southern Pantanal, Brazil

Context Understanding predator–prey relationships is important for making informed management decisions. Knowledge of jaguar (Panthera onca) predation on livestock and native prey is imperative for future conservation of jaguars in Central and South America. Aim As part of an investigation to determine predation patterns of jaguars in the southern Pantanal, Brazil, we examined spatial, temporal and habitat variables, which are useful in categorising location clusters as kill sites and non-kill sites. Methods Using GPS-collars on 10 jaguars we obtained a total of 11 784 locations, from which 877 clusters were identified, visited and examined for prey remains. Of the 877 clusters, 421 were associated with a kill and 456 clusters were not associated with a kill. We used univariate and multivariate models to examine the influence of spatial (distance to nearest: water, dense cover, road; dispersion of points), temporal (season, time, number of nights, duration) and habitat (percentage of seven habitat classes, dominant habitat class) variables on categorising clusters as kill or non-kill sites. Key results We found the time a jaguar spent at a cluster (duration), the dispersion of points around the centre of the cluster (dispersion) and the number of nights spent at the cluster were all reliable predictors of whether a cluster was a kill or non-kill site. The best model predicting the likelihood a cluster was a jaguar kill site was a combination of duration and dispersion. Habitat variables were not important in discriminating kills from non-kill sites. Conclusion We identified factors useful for discriminating between kills and non-kill sites for jaguars. We found that as a jaguar spent more time at a cluster and as the dispersion of points around the centre of the cluster increased, the higher likelihood the cluster was a jaguar kill. Similarly, as the number of nights spent at the cluster increased, the greater the probability the cluster was a kill. Implications Our results will increase the efficiency of field investigations of location clusters in determining predation patterns of jaguars in Central and South America. Being able to prioritise which location clusters should be investigated will assist researchers with limited time and resources.

Mountain lion ( Puma concolor ) feeding behavior in the Little Missouri Badlands of North Dakota

Recent recolonization of mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) into the Little Missouri Badlands of North Dakota has led to questions regarding the potential impacts of predation on prey populations in the region. From 2012 to 2013, we deployed 9 real-time GPS collars to investigate mountain lion feeding habits. We monitored mountain lions for 1,845 telemetry-days, investigated 506 GPS clusters, and identified 292 feeding events. Deer ( Odocoileus spp.) were the most prevalent item in mountain lion diets (76.9%). We used logistic regression to predict feeding events and size of prey consumed at an additional 535 clusters. Our top model for predicting presence of prey items produced a receiver operating characteristic score of 0.90 and an overall accuracy of 81.4%. Application of our models to all GPS clusters resulted in an estimated ungulate kill rate of 1.09 ungulates/week (95% confidence interval [ CI ] = 0.83–1.36) in summer (15 May‒15 November) and 0.90 ungulates/week (95% CI = 0.69–1.12) in winter (16 November‒14 May). Estimates of total biomass consumed were 5.8kg/day (95% CI = 4.7–6.9) in summer and 7.2kg/day (95% CI = 5.3–9.2) in winter. Overall scavenge rates were 3.7% in summer and 11.9% in winter. Prey composition included higher proportions of nonungulates in summer (female = 21.5%; male = 24.8%) than in winter (female = 4.8%; male = 7.5%). Proportion of juvenile ungulates in mountain lion diets increased during the fawning season (June‒August) following the ungulate birth pulse in June (June–August = 60.7%, 95% CI = 43.0–78.3; September–May = 37.2%, 95% CI = 30.8–43.7), resulting in an ungulate kill rate 1.61 times higher (1.41 ungulates/week, 95% CI = 1.12–1.71) than during the remainder of the year (0.88 ungulates/week, 95% CI = 0.62–1.13). Quantifying these feeding characteristics is essential to assessing the potential impacts of mountain lions on prey populations in the North Dakota Badlands, where deer dominate the available prey base and mountain lions represent the lone apex predator.

Extending the Functionality of Behavioural Change-Point Analysis with k-Means Clustering: A Case Study with the Little Penguin (Eudyptula minor)

We present a simple framework for classifying mutually exclusive behavioural states within the geospatial lifelines of animals. This method involves use of three sequentially applied statistical procedures: (1) behavioural change point analysis to partition movement trajectories into discrete bouts of same-state behaviours, based on abrupt changes in the spatio-temporal autocorrelation structure of movement parameters; (2) hierarchical multivariate cluster analysis to determine the number of different behavioural states; and (3) k-means clustering to classify inferred bouts of same-state location observations into behavioural modes. We demonstrate application of the method by analysing synthetic trajectories of known ‘artificial behaviours’ comprised of different correlated random walks, as well as real foraging trajectories of little penguins (Eudyptula minor) obtained by global-positioning-system telemetry. Our results show that the modelling procedure correctly classified 92.5% of all individual location observations in the synthetic trajectories, demonstrating reasonable ability to successfully discriminate behavioural modes. Most individual little penguins were found to exhibit three unique behavioural states (resting, commuting/active searching, area-restricted foraging), with variation in the timing and locations of observations apparently related to ambient light, bathymetry, and proximity to coastlines and river mouths. Addition of k-means clustering extends the utility of behavioural change point analysis, by providing a simple means through which the behaviours inferred for the location observations comprising individual movement trajectories can be objectively classified.

A face in the crowd: a non-invasive and cost effective photo-identification methodology to understand the fine scale movement of eastern water dragons

Ectothermic vertebrates face many challenges of thermoregulation. Many species rely on behavioral thermoregulation and move within their landscape to maintain homeostasis. Understanding the fine-scale nature of this regulation through tracking techniques can provide a better understanding of the relationships between such species and their dynamic environments. The use of animal tracking and telemetry technology has allowed the extensive collection of such data which has enabled us to better understand the ways animals move within their landscape. However, such technologies do not come without certain costs: they are generally invasive, relatively expensive, can be too heavy for small sized animals and unreliable in certain habitats. This study provides a cost-effective and non-invasive method through photo-identification, to determine fine scale movements of individuals. With our methodology, we have been able to find that male eastern water dragons (Intellagama leuseurii) have home ranges one and a half times larger than those of females. Furthermore, we found intraspecific differences in the size of home ranges depending on the time of the day. Lastly, we found that location mostly influenced females' home ranges, but not males and discuss why this may be so. Overall, we provide valuable information regarding the ecology of the eastern water dragon, but most importantly demonstrate that non-invasive photo-identification can be successfully applied to the study of reptiles.

Seasonal and individual variation in selection by feral cats for areas with widespread primary prey and localised alternative prey

Context Seasonal and individual variation in predator selection for primary and alternative prey can affect predator–prey dynamics, which can further influence invasive-predator impacts on rare prey. Aims We evaluated individual and seasonal variation in resource selection by feral cats (Felis silvestris catus) for areas with European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) around a breeding colony of endangered black-fronted terns (Chlidonias albostriatus) in the Upper Ohau River, within the Mackenzie Basin of New Zealand. Methods Within a feral cat population subject to localised control (within a 1-km area surrounding the tern colony), we mapped the movements of 17 individuals using GPS collars, and evaluated individual and seasonal variation in third-order resource selection (i.e. within home ranges) by using resource-selection functions with mixed effects. The year was divided into breeding and non-breeding seasons for terns. Key results Three of the eight feral cats monitored during the breeding season used the colony in proportion to availability and one selected it. These four individuals therefore pose a threat to the tern colony despite ongoing predator control. Selection by feral cats for areas with high relative rabbit abundance was not ubiquitous year-round, despite previous research showing that rabbits are their primary prey in the Mackenzie Basin. Conclusions Results suggest that rabbit control around the colony should reduce use by feral cats that select areas with high relative rabbit abundance (less than half the individuals monitored), but is unlikely to alleviate the impacts of those that select areas with low relative rabbit abundance. Hence, predator control is also required to target these individuals. Results thus support the current coupled-control of feral cats and rabbits within a 1-km buffer surrounding the tern colony. Future research should determine what scale of coupled-control yields the greatest benefits to localised prey, such as the tern colony, and whether rabbits aid hyperpredation of terns by feral cats via landscape supplementation. Implications The present study has highlighted the importance of considering seasonal and individual effects in resource selection by predators, and the role of primary prey, when designing management programs to protect rare prey.