Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance

Closing the Information Gap Between the Field and Scientific Literature for Improved Disease Management, with a Focus on Rice and Bacterial Blight

A path to sustainably reduce world hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition is to close the crop yield gap and, particularly, lower losses due to pathogens. Breeding resistant crops is key to achieving this goal, which is an effort requiring collaboration among stakeholders, scientists, breeders, farmers, and policymakers. During a disease outbreak, epidemiologists survey the occurrence of a disease after which pathologists investigate mechanisms to stop an infection. Policymakers then implement strategies with farmers and breeders to overcome the outbreak. Information flow from the field to the lab and back to the field involves several processing hubs that require different information inputs. Failure to communicate the necessary information results in the transfer of meaningless data. Here, we discuss gaps in information acquisition and transfer between the field and laboratory. Using rice bacterial blight disease as an example, we discuss pathogen biology and disease resistance to point out the importance of reporting pathogen strains that caused an outbreak to optimize the deployment of resistant crop varieties. We examine differences between infection in the field and assays performed in the laboratory to draw awareness of possible misinformation concerning plant resistance or susceptibility. We discuss key data considered useful for reporting disease outbreaks, sampling bias, and suggestions for improving data quality. We also touch on the knowledge gap in the state-of-the-art literature regarding disease dispersal and transmission. We use a recent case study to exemplify the gaps mentioned. We conclude by highlighting potential actions that may contribute to food security and to closing the yield gap. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2025 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.

GIATAR: a Spatio-temporal Dataset of Global Invasive and Alien Species and their Traits

Monitoring and managing the global spread of invasive and alien species requires accurate spatiotemporal records of species presence and information about the biological characteristics of species of interest including life cycle information, biotic and abiotic constraints and pathways of spread. The Global Invasive and Alien Traits And Records (GIATAR) dataset provides consolidated dated records of invasive and alien presence at the country-scale combined with a suite of biological information about pests of interest in a standardized, machine-readable format. We provide dated presence records for 46,666 alien taxa in 249 countries constituting 827,300 country-taxon pairs in locations where the taxon's invasive status is either alien, invasive, or unknown, joined with additional biological information for thousands of taxa. GIATAR is designed to be quickly updateable with future data and easy to integrate into ongoing research on global patterns of alien species movement using scripts provided to query and analyze data. GIATAR provides crucial data needed for researchers and policymakers to compare global invasion trends across a wide range of taxa.

Environmental DNA methods for biosecurity and invasion biology in terrestrial ecosystems: Progress, pitfalls, and prospects

Analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) enables indirect detection of species without the need to directly observe and sample them. For biosecurity and invasion biology, eDNA-based methods are useful to address biological invasions at all phases, from detecting arrivals to confirming eradication of past invasions. We conducted a systematic review of the literature and found that in biosecurity and invasion biology, eDNA has primarily been used to detect new incursions and monitor spread in marine and freshwater ecosystems, with much slower uptake in terrestrial ecosystems, reflecting a broader trend common to the usage of eDNA tools. In terrestrial ecosystems, eDNA research has mostly focussed on the use of eDNA metabarcoding to characterise biodiversity, rather than targeting biosecurity threats or non-native populations. We discuss how eDNA-based methods are being applied to terrestrial ecosystems for biosecurity and managing non-native populations at each phase of the invasion continuum: transport, introduction, establishment, and spread; across different management options: containment, control, and eradication; and for detecting the impact of non-native organisms. Finally, we address some of the current technical issues and caveats of eDNA-based methods, particularly for terrestrial ecosystems, and how these might be solved. As eDNA-based methods improve, they will play an increasingly important role in the early detection and adaptive management of biological invasions, and the implementation of effective biosecurity controls.

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Dispersal drives invasion dynamics of nonnative species and pathogens. Applying knowledge of dispersal to optimize the management of invasions can mean the difference between a failed and a successful control program and dramatically improve the return on investment of control efforts. A common approach to identifying optimal management solutions for invasions is to optimize dynamic spatial models that incorporate dispersal. Optimizing these spatial models can be very challenging because the interaction of time, space, and uncertainty rapidly amplifies the number of dimensions being considered. Addressing such problems requires advances in and the integration of techniques from multiple fields, including ecology, decision analysis, bioeconomics, natural resource management, and optimization. By synthesizing recent advances from these diverse fields, we provide a workflow for applying ecological theory to advance optimal management science and highlight priorities for optimizing the control of invasions. One of the striking gaps we identify is the extremely limited consideration of dispersal uncertainty in optimal management frameworks, even though dispersal estimates are highly uncertain and greatly influence invasion outcomes. In addition, optimization frameworks rarely consider multiple types of uncertainty (we describe five major types) and their interrelationships. Thus, feedbacks from management or other sources that could magnify uncertainty in dispersal are rarely considered. Incorporating uncertainty is crucial for improving transparency in decision risks and identifying optimal management strategies. We discuss gaps and solutions to the challenges of optimization using dynamic spatial models to increase the practical application of these important tools and improve the consistency and robustness of management recommendations for invasions.

Epidemiologically-based strategies for the detection of emerging plant pathogens

Emerging pests and pathogens of plants are a major threat to natural and managed ecosystems worldwide. Whilst it is well accepted that surveillance activities are key to both the early detection of new incursions and the ability to identify pest-free areas, the performance of these activities must be evaluated to ensure they are fit for purpose. This requires consideration of the number of potential hosts inspected or tested as well as the epidemiology of the pathogen and the detection method used. In the case of plant pathogens, one particular concern is whether the visual inspection of plant hosts for signs of disease is able to detect the presence of these pathogens at low prevalences, given that it takes time for these symptoms to develop. One such pathogen is the ST53 strain of the vector-borne bacterial pathogen Xylella fastidiosa in olive hosts, which was first identified in southern Italy in 2013. Additionally, X. fastidiosa ST53 in olive has a rapid rate of spread, which could also have important implications for surveillance. In the current study, we evaluate how well visual surveillance would be expected to perform for this pathogen and investigate whether molecular testing of either tree hosts or insect vectors offer feasible alternatives. Our results identify the main constraints to each of these strategies and can be used to inform and improve both current and future surveillance activities.

Potential areas for the establishment of citrus leprosis virus vectors, Brevipalpus spp., in Mexico

Citrus leprosis is a viral disease vectored by the mites Brevipalpus californicus and Brevipalpus yothersi. This work aimed to determine the potential areas for establishment of both mites and viruses in Mexico, based on the geographical distribution of the hosts and the climatic suitability for the vectors. Life tables of both mites were constructed to determine their thermal requirements-base temperature and degree-days required to complete life cycle-and population growth parameters-net reproduction rate, generation time, and intrinsic growth rate. For this, the mites were confined in Citrus aurantium fruits at 20, 22.5, 25 or 30 °C, 60 ± 5% RH and L14:D10 h photoperiod. Maps were generated where the climatic suitability for establishment of the mites and the citrus leprosis viruses was estimated in citrus-producing municipalities. The climatic suitability was determined through historical temperature records to calculate the potential number of generations per year, and ecological niche modeling based on collecting localities and bioclimatic variables using the algorithm Maxent. The base temperature was 9.5 °C for B. californicus and 10.2 °C for B. yothersi; degree-days required to reach adulthood were 372.1 and 331.7 °C, respectively. Potential sites for establishment of B. yothersi are mostly lowlands, whereas for B. californicus they are both lowlands and highlands. Temperature data indicate that B. californicus has fewer sites where it can develop > 16 generations per year than B. yothersi. According to our results, the sites where citrus leprosis is most likely to present high incidence are the sweet orange cultivars bordering the Gulf of Mexico.

Optimal invasive species surveillance in the real world: practical advances from research

When alien species make incursions into novel environments, early detection through surveillance is critical to minimizing their impacts and preserving the possibility of timely eradication. However, incipient populations can be difficult to detect, and usually, there are limited resources for surveillance or other response activities. Modern optimization techniques enable surveillance planning that accounts for the biology and expected behavior of an invasive species while exploring multiple scenarios to identify the most cost-effective options. Nevertheless, most optimization models omit some real-world limitations faced by practitioners during multi-day surveillance campaigns, such as daily working time constraints, the time and cost to access survey sites and personnel work schedules. Consequently, surveillance managers must rely on their own judgments to handle these logistical details, and default to their experience during implementation. This is sensible, but their decisions may fail to address all relevant factors and may not be cost-effective. A better planning strategy is to determine optimal routing to survey sites while accounting for common daily logistical constraints. Adding site access and other logistical constraints imposes restrictions on the scope and extent of the surveillance effort, yielding costlier but more realistic expectations of the surveillance outcomes than in a theoretical planning case.

The role of passive surveillance and citizen science in plant health

The early detection of plant pests and diseases is vital to the success of any eradication or control programme, but the resources for surveillance are often limited. Plant health authorities can however make use of observations from individuals and stakeholder groups who are monitoring for signs of ill health. Volunteered data is most often discussed in relation to citizen science groups, however these groups are only part of a wider network of professional agents, land-users and owners who can all contribute to significantly increase surveillance efforts through "passive surveillance". These ad-hoc reports represent chance observations by individuals who may not necessarily be looking for signs of pests and diseases when they are discovered. Passive surveillance contributes vital observations in support of national and international surveillance programs, detecting potentially unknown issues in the wider landscape, beyond points of entry and the plant trade. This review sets out to describe various forms of passive surveillance, identify analytical methods that can be applied to these "messy" unstructured data, and indicate how new programs can be established and maintained. Case studies discuss two tree health projects from Great Britain (TreeAlert and Observatree) to illustrate the challenges and successes of existing passive surveillance programmes. When analysing passive surveillance reports it is important to understand the observers' probability to detect and report each plant health issue, which will vary depending on how distinctive the symptoms are and the experience of the observer. It is also vital to assess how representative the reports are and whether they occur more frequently in certain locations. Methods are increasingly available to predict species distributions from large datasets, but more work is needed to understand how these apply to rare events such as new introductions. One solution for general surveillance is to develop and maintain a network of tree health volunteers, but this requires a large investment in training, feedback and engagement to maintain motivation. There are already many working examples of passive surveillance programmes and the suite of options to interpret the resulting datasets is growing rapidly.

Preface to theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'

This preface forms part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Detection, forecasting and control of infectious disease epidemics: modelling outbreaks in humans, animals and plants

The 1918 influenza pandemic is one of the most devastating infectious disease epidemics on record, having caused approximately 50 million deaths worldwide. Control measures, including prohibiting non-essential gatherings as well as closing cinemas and music halls, were applied with varying success and limited knowledge of transmission dynamics. One hundred years later, following developments in the field of mathematical epidemiology, models are increasingly used to guide decision-making and devise appropriate interventions that mitigate the impacts of epidemics. Epidemiological models have been used as decision-making tools during outbreaks in human, animal and plant populations. However, as the subject has developed, human, animal and plant disease modelling have diverged. Approaches have been developed independently for pathogens of each host type, often despite similarities between the models used in these complementary fields. With the increased importance of a One Health approach that unifies human, animal and plant health, we argue that more inter-disciplinary collaboration would enhance each of the related disciplines. This pair of theme issues presents research articles written by human, animal and plant disease modellers. In this introductory article, we compare the questions pertinent to, and approaches used by, epidemiological modellers of human, animal and plant pathogens, and summarize the articles in these theme issues. We encourage future collaboration that transcends disciplinary boundaries and links the closely related areas of human, animal and plant disease epidemic modelling. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.