Burden of varicella in Italy, 2001-2010: analysis of data from multiple sources and assessment of universal vaccination impact in three pilot regions

Global Prevalence of Varicella-Associated Complications: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Varicella (chickenpox) is an infectious disease caused by the varicella zoster virus affecting children, adolescents, and adults. Varicella symptoms are usually self-limiting; however, different complications with widespread and systemic manifestations can occur. This systematic literature review aims to explore and quantify varicella-associated complication rates.

METHODS

Two databases (Embase and MEDLINE), congress abstracts, and reference lists of systematic reviews were screened to identify evidence on varicella complications. Complications were identified and grouped into 14 clinically relevant categories. Proportional meta-analyses were conducted using a random-effects model and tests for heterogeneity and publication bias were performed. Subgroup, sensitivity, and meta-regression analyses were also conducted. A total of 78 studies, spanning 30 countries, were included in the meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Pooled prevalence was highest in severe varicella (22.42%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 10.13-37.77), skin-related complications (20.12%; 95% CI 15.48-25.20), and infection-related complications (10.03%; 95% CI 7.47-12.90). Cardiovascular (0.55%; 95% CI 0.08-1.33), genitourinary (1.17%; 95% CI 0.55-1.99), and musculoskeletal (1.54%; 95% CI 1.06-2.11) complications had the lowest pooled prevalence. The remaining complication categories ranged between 1% and 10%. Subgroup analysis showed that complications were more prevalent in children versus adults and in hospitalized patients versus outpatients. Meta-regression analysis found that no ecological level covariates were accurate predictors for the overall prevalence of varicella-associated complications. There was substantial heterogeneity and publication bias across all meta-analyses.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that different types of varicella-associated complications could be frequent, impacting quality of life, and healthcare resource utilisation and budgets. These findings are crucial to raise awareness of the health and economic burden of varicella disease.

Healthcare resource use and costs of varicella and its complications: A systematic literature review

Varicella is a highly contagious disease caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV). While the disease is usually mild, severe complications can occur requiring costly hospitalization. A thorough understanding of the healthcare resource use (HCRU) and costs of varicella is needed to inform health-economic models of preventive strategies. A systematic literature review was carried out to retrieve relevant publications between 1999 and 2021, reporting HCRU and cost outcomes for varicella and its complications. Data were extracted and stratified according to pre-specified age groups and complication categories. Costs were re-based to a $US2020 footing using both purchasing power parity and the medical component of consumer price indexes. Data were summarized descriptively due to high heterogeneity in study design and outcome reporting. Forty-four publications fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria of which 28 were conducted in Europe, 6 in Middle East and Asia, 5 in South America, 3 in North America, and 2 in multiple regions. Primary healthcare visits accounted for 30% to 85% of total direct costs. Hospitalization costs varied between $1,308 and $38,268 per episode depending on country, complication type, and length of stay, contributing between 2% and 60% to total direct costs. Indirect costs, mostly driven by workdays lost, accounted for approximately two-thirds of total costs due to varicella. The management of varicella and related complications can lead to substantial HCRU and costs for patients and the healthcare system. Additional research is needed to further characterize the varicella-associated economic burden and its broader impact from a societal standpoint.

Sero-Epidemiological Study of Varicella in the Italian General Population

The aim of this study was to analyze the seroprevalence of varicella in Italy and to evaluate the impact of varicella vaccination, which has been mandatory for newborns since 2017. The levels of VZV-specific IgG antibodies were determined by the ELISA method in residual serum samples obtained from subjects aged between 6 and 64 years and residing in 13 Italian regions. Overall, 3746 serum samples were collected in the years 2019 and 2020. The overall seroprevalence was 91.6% (89.9% in males and 93.3% in females; p = 0.0002). Seroprevalence showed an increasing trend (p < 0.0001) starting in the younger age groups: 6-9 years: 84.1%; 10-14 years: 88.7%; 15-19 years: 89.3%; 20-39 years: 93.1% and >40 years: 97.0%. The seroprevalence data obtained in the present study were compared with those relating to previous sero-epidemiological surveys conducted, respectively, in the years 1996-1997, 2003-2004 and 2013-2014, taking into consideration only data from regions monitored in all surveillance campaigns. The comparison highlighted for the period 2019-2020 showed significantly higher values in the age groups 6-9 (p < 0.001), 10-14 (p = 0.018) and 15-19 years (p = 0.035), while in adults, the trend did not change over time (ns). These results highlight the positive impact of varicella vaccination in Italy.

Economic burden of varicella in Europe in the absence of universal varicella vaccination

Background

Though the disease burden of varicella in Europe has been reported previously, the economic burden is still unknown. This study estimated the economic burden of varicella in Europe in the absence of Universal Varicella Vaccination (UVV) in 2018 Euros from both payer (direct costs) and societal (direct and indirect costs) perspectives.

Methods

We estimated the country specific and overall annual costs of varicella in absence of UVV in 31 European countries (27 EU countries, plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom). To obtain country specific unit costs and associated healthcare utilization, we conducted a systematic literature review, searching in PubMed, EMBASE, NEED, DARE, REPEC, Open Grey, and public heath websites (1/1/1999–10/15/2019). The number of annual varicella cases, deaths, outpatient visits and hospitalizations were calculated (without UVV) based on age-specific incidence rates (Riera-Montes et al. 2017) and 2018 population data by country. Unit cost per varicella case and disease burden data were combined using stochastic modeling to estimate 2018 costs stratified by country, age and healthcare resource.

Results

Overall annual total costs associated with varicella were estimated to be €662,592,061 (Range: €309,552,363 to €1,015,631,760) in Europe in absence of UVV. Direct and indirect costs were estimated at €229,076,206 (Range €144,809,557 to €313,342,856) and €433,515,855 (Range €164,742,806 to €702,288,904), respectively. Total cost per case was €121.45 (direct: €41.99; indirect: €79.46). Almost half of the costs were attributed to cases in children under 5 years, owing mainly to caregiver work loss. The distribution of costs by healthcare resource was similar across countries. France and Germany accounted for 49.28% of total annual costs, most likely due to a combination of high numbers of cases and unit costs in these countries.

Conclusions

The economic burden of varicella across Europe in the absence of UVV is substantial (over 600 M€), primarily driven by caregiver burden including work productivity losses.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12343-x.

Has Clinical and Epidemiological Varicella Burden Changed over Time in Children? Overview on Hospitalizations, Comorbidities and Costs from 2010 to 2017 in Italy

According to WHO estimates, varicella disease is responsible of a worldwide significant burden in terms of hospitalizations, complications, and deaths, with more than 90% of cases under 12 years old. This study aims at evaluating the clinical, epidemiological, and economic burden of varicella in Ligurian children, about comorbidities, organizational variables, and vaccination coverages from 2010 to 2017, in terms of Emergency Department accesses and hospitalizations. The overall hospitalization rate was 179.76 (per 100,000 inhab.), with a gradual but significant decline since 2015, when universal varicella vaccination was introduced in Liguria (p < 0.0001). The risk of being hospitalized for complicated varicella in subjects with at least one comorbidity was significantly higher than in subjects without comorbidities (p = 0.0016). The economic analysis showed higher costs in subjects with complicated varicella who were 0-3 years old. This age group showed higher costs also considering extra-hospital costs for both outpatient procedures and pharmaceutical costs (p < 0.0001). The results confirm the relevant burden of varicella, especially in the 0-3 age group and in children with comorbidities. Thus, vaccination with the achievement of adequate vaccination coverages is confirmed to be a necessary control strategy to reduce hospitalizations and associated complications with important economic benefits.

Seasonal dynamics of varicella incidence in Bulgaria

Aim: Spatial and temporal distribution of varicella is heterogenic and insufficiently studied in Europe. The present study tries to fill the gap that exists about the seasonality of the infection in Bulgaria. Materials & methods: A 4-year retrospective study of the monthly and seasonal varicella epidemiology was performed at both national and district level. Results: In Bulgaria, varicella incidence peaked during winter (37% of the 2015–2018 cases), followed by spring (33%) and autumn (23%). Highly populated districts were more likely to follow this pattern, while less inhabited districts with smaller urbanized areas showed different periodicity of the infection. Conclusion: Winter peak in varicella incidence is positively associated with high accumulation of people in the large cities (>75,000 inhabitants).

The Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Varicella Vaccination in Italy: A Model-Based Assessment of Vaccination Strategies

Background

In 2017, varicella vaccination became mandatory for all children in Italy, based on a two-dose schedule administered at 12–15 months of age and 5 to 6 years of age. Varicella vaccines are available in different formulations (as a single vaccine or as a combination vaccine together with measles, mumps, and rubella) and are made by multiple manufacturers with different effectiveness profiles. This study calculates the cost-effectiveness of a range of varicella vaccination strategies to identify the optimal strategy for Italy.

Methods

A dynamic transmission cost-effectiveness model was applied in Italy to simulate the long-term (50 years) costs and outcomes associated with different varicella vaccination strategies. Five vaccination strategies were evaluated using the model: two doses of two different combination Measles-Mumps-Rubella-Varicella vaccines (either Vaccine A (MSD) [denoted QQVa] or Vaccine B (GSK) [denoted QQVb]); a first dose of a single Varicella vaccine followed by a second dose of a combination vaccine (either Vaccine C (MSD) followed by Vaccine A [denoted MQVa] or Vaccine D (GSK) followed by Vaccine B [denoted MQVb]); or no vaccine at all (NV). The model was adapted for Italy using publicly available Italian data and expert opinion.

Results

Over the 50-year time-horizon, in the absence of universal varicella vaccination, there would be 34.8 million varicella cases, 142 varicella-infection-related deaths, and €23 billion in societal costs. The cost per capita from a societal perspective ranged from €164.55 to €392.18 with NV being the most expensive and QQVa the least expensive. The most effective strategy was QQVa, which resulted in a 66% decrease in varicella cases and 30% reduction in varicella-related deaths compared to NV strategy. QQVa led to a net saving in societal cost around €13 billion compared to NV as the cost of vaccination was more than offset by the savings that resulted from the reduced burden of illness.

Conclusion

Varicella vaccination has a major impact on reducing varicella incidence, prevalence, and societal costs. This analysis supports the policy for universal varicella vaccination in Italy as the NV strategy was the most expensive and resulted in the poorest outcomes. QQVa offers the greatest benefits at the lowest cost and should be considered as a potential priority strategy for Italian population.

Varicella seroepidemiology and immunization in a cohort of future healthcare workers in the pre-vaccination era

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to establish the seroprevalence of positive antibodies against varicella and compliance with varicella vaccination in the pre-vaccination era.

METHODS

A cohort of 10 683 Italian students from Padua University Medical School (from 2004 to 2019) were enrolled and classified as unvaccinated, vaccinated once, or vaccinated twice against varicella, according to their vaccination certificate. The antibody titre was measured and the seroprevalence of positive subjects was determined. Subjects with negative or equivocal antibodies were invited for vaccination, and then the antibody titre was retested.

RESULTS

Unvaccinated students were mostly seropositive (95.6%), compared with vaccinated students who were less seropositive (68.0% after one dose and 78.6% after two doses) and had significantly lower antibody titres (p < 0.0001). The post-test vaccination had a positive response rate of 85.4%: 67.4% after one dose and 91.4% after two doses.

CONCLUSIONS

In the pre-vaccination era, only 3.3% of future healthcare workers were vaccinated against varicella (1.1% once and 2.2% twice). Vaccination or revaccination of negative and equivocal individuals could reduce the number of susceptible people. Implementation of varicella vaccine (two doses) in healthcare workers is of primary importance to reduce the risk of transmission.

Implementing Universal Varicella Vaccination in Europe: The Path Forward

Varicella is a common vaccine-preventable disease that usually presents as a mild disorder but can lead to severe complications. Before the implementation of universal varicella vaccination (UVV) in some European countries, the burden of varicella disease was broadly similar across the region. Despite this, countries adopted heterogeneous varicella vaccination strategies. UVV is currently recommended in 12 European countries. Known barriers to UVV implementation in Europe include (1) a perceived low disease burden and low public health priority; (2) cost-effectiveness and funding availability; (3) concerns related to a shift in varicella disease and incidence of herpes zoster and (4) safety concerns related to measles, mumps, rubella and varicella-associated febrile seizures after the first dose. Countries that implemented UVV experienced decreases in varicella incidence, hospitalizations and complications, showing overall beneficial impact. Alternative strategies targeting susceptible individuals at higher risk of complications have been less effective. This article discusses ways to overcome the barriers to move varicella forward as a truly vaccine preventable disease.

Global impact of varicella vaccination programs

Although varicella is usually a mild and self-limited disease, complications can occur. In 1998, the World Health Organization recommended varicella vaccination for countries where the disease has a significant public health burden. Nonetheless, concerns about a shift in the disease to older groups, an increase in herpes zoster in the elderly and cost-effectiveness led many countries to postpone universal varicella vaccine introduction. In this review, we summarize the accumulating evidence, available mostly from high and middle-income countries supporting a high impact of universal vaccination in reductions of the incidence of the disease and hospitalizations and its cost-effectiveness. We have also observed the effect of herd immunity and noted that there is no definitive and consistent association between vaccination and the increase in herpes zoster incidence in the elderly.

Management of chickenpox in pregnant women: an Italian perspective

Chickenpox is a highly contagious disease caused by primary infection of varicella zoster virus (VZV). The disease is spread worldwide and is usually benign but, in some groups of population like pregnant women, can have a severe outcome. Due to a not optimal vaccination coverage, a relatively high number of childbearing-aged women in a European country such as Italy tested seronegative for VZV and so are currently at risk of acquiring chickenpox during pregnancy, especially if they live in contact with children for family or work reasons. Only few data are available about the risk of infection in this setting: the incidence of chickenpox may range from 1.5 to 4.6 cases/1000 childbearing females and from 1.21 to 6 cases/10,000 pregnant women, respectively. This review is aimed to focus on the epidemiology and the clinical management of exposure to chickenpox during pregnancy. Particular emphasis is given to the accurate screening of childbearing women at the time of the first gynecological approach - the females who tested susceptible to infection can be counseled about the risks and instructed on procedure should contact occur - and to the early prophylaxis of the at-risk exposure. Lastly, the achievement of adequate vaccination coverage of the Italian population remains a cornerstone in the prevention of chickenpox in pregnancy.

The impact of demographic changes, exogenous boosting and new vaccination policies on varicella and herpes zoster in Italy: a modelling and cost-effectiveness study

BACKGROUND

The present study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the newly introduced varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) vaccination programmes in Italy. The appropriateness of the introduction of the varicella vaccine is highly debated because of concerns about the consequences on HZ epidemiology and the expected increase in the number of severe cases in case of suboptimal coverage levels.

METHODS

We performed a cost-utility analysis based on a stochastic individual-based model that considers realistic demographic processes and two different underlying mechanisms of exogenous boosting (temporary and progressive immunity). Routine varicella vaccination is given with a two-dose schedule (15 months, 5-6 years). The HZ vaccine is offered to the elderly (65 years), either alone or in combination with an initial catch-up campaign (66-75 years). The main outcome measures are averted cases and deaths, costs per quality-adjusted life years gained, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and net monetary benefits associated with the different vaccination policies.

RESULTS

Demographic processes have contributed to shaping varicella and HZ epidemiology over the years, decreasing varicella circulation and increasing the incidence of HZ. The recent introduction of varicella vaccination in Italy is expected to produce an enduring reduction in varicella incidence and, indirectly, a further increase of HZ incidence in the first decades, followed by a significant reduction in the long term. However, the concurrent introduction of routine HZ vaccination at 65 years of age is expected to mitigate this increase and, in the longer run, to reduce HZ burden to its minimum. From an economic perspective, all the considered policies are cost-effective, with the exception of varicella vaccination alone when considering a time horizon of 50 years. These results are robust to parameter uncertainties, to the two different hypotheses on the mechanism driving exogenous boosting, and to different demographic projection scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The recent introduction of a combined varicella and HZ vaccination programme in Italy will produce significant reductions in the burden of both diseases and is found to be a cost-effective policy. This programme will counterbalance the increasing trend of zoster incidence purely due to demographic processes.

Varicella in Poland: economic burden in children 1-12 years of age in Poland, 2010-2015

Background

The safety and efficacy of live-attenuated varicella zoster virus (VZV) vaccines in preventing varicella and reducing associated morbidity and mortality in real-world have been previously shown. In Poland, VZV vaccination is only mandatory for certain high-risk individuals. Here, we have conducted an evaluation of the clinical and economic burden of varicella in Poland.

Methods

Multicenter, retrospective chart review of varicella inpatients and outpatients aged 1–12 years with a primary diagnosis between 2010 and 2015. Varicella-related outcomes included the incidence of complications, the proportion of patients reporting healthcare resource utilization (HCRU), and frequency of HCRU. Direct costs were derived from per patient resource use multiplied by unit costs, and indirect costs were calculated as loss of revenue of caregivers reporting work days missed. The overall annual cost of varicella in Poland was estimated based on the calculated direct and indirect costs per case and the estimated number of varicella cases. All costs are presented in 2015 Polish złoty (PLN) / Euros (€).

Results

A total of 150 children with varicella were included, of which 75 were outpatients and 75 were inpatients with a mean (± SD) age of 3.9 (±2.6) and 4.2 (±2.3) years, respectively. Complications were experienced by 14.7% of outpatients and 82.7% of inpatients, of which the most common were skin and soft tissue infections and dehydration. The rate of HCRU was as follows: over-the-counter medications (80.0% outpatients, 81.3% inpatients), prescription medications (80.0% outpatients, 93.3% inpatients), tests/procedures (0.0% outpatients, 69.3% inpatients), and allied health professional consults (0.0% outpatients, 24.0% inpatients). Total (direct and indirect) cost per varicella case was 5013.3 PLN (€ 1198.1) for inpatients and 1027.2 PLN (€ 245.5) for outpatients, resulting in an estimated overall annual (2015) cost of varicella in Poland of 178,198,320 PLN (€ 42,588,385) among children aged 1–15 years.

Conclusions

Significant clinical and economic burden is associated with varicella in Poland. These results may be used to foster discussion related to the implications of implementing routine VZV vaccination in Poland.

Early impact of universal varicella vaccination on childhood varicella and herpes zoster hospitalizations in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

The Brazilian childhood National Immunization Program (NIP) introduced live and attenuated varicella vaccination in a single dose, combined as tetraviral vaccine, at 15 months of age in the whole country, during September to December of 2013. The aim of this study was to report trends in incidence of childhood hospital admissions related to varicella and zoster in Brazil from 2003 to 2016, including the first three years after vaccine introduction.

METHODS

The number and incidence of hospital admission in patients aged less than 20 years in Brazilian public health system with an admission diagnosis of varicella and zoster from 2003 to 2016 were analyzed and pre (2003-2013) and post-vaccination periods (2014-2016) were compared. The data were obtained from DATASUS, a Brazilian government's open-access public health database system, and analyzed adjusting for secular trend and seasonality if a statistically significant change was found.

RESULTS

During the study period, 69,791 admissions due to varicella and herpes zoster occurred in the children younger than 20 years. After adjusting for seasonality, the incidence of hospitalizations decreased from 27.33 to 14.33 per 100000 per year, which corresponds to a reduction of 47.6% (95% confidence interval 18.19-77.04%, p < 0.001) in the vaccinated age group (1-4 years) in 2014-2016 compared to pre-vaccination period. The changes were not significant in the unvaccinated age groups.

CONCLUSION

The hospitalizations due to varicella and herpes zoster were decreased by half early after the introduction of a single dose of tetraviral vaccine in NIP in the vaccinated children. Further studies may assess duration and intensity of this effect, as well as the indirect effect in the unvaccinated age groups.

Varicella vaccination - the global experience

INTRODUCTION

Varicella, although a frequently benign childhood disease, nevertheless represents a considerable health burden. WHO recommends including varicella vaccines in universal routine vaccination programs, and maintaining coverage >80%. Many countries have successfully introduced varicella vaccination and have benefited from lower disease burden, but many others have not adopted the vaccine. Reasons include cost commitment for a 'mild childhood disease' or concerns that vaccination will shift varicella to older age groups or increase herpes zoster incidence. Areas covered: This literature review summarizes the effectiveness and epidemiological impact of varicella immunization programs. Expert commentary: Varicella vaccines are immunogenic with acceptable safety profiles. One and two dose schedules are highly effective against varicella and large reductions in disease incidence, particularly moderate-severe disease, have been widely reported. There is currently no evidence to suggest that the introduction of varicella vaccination results in a shift of varicella disease burden to older age groups. Although epidemiological studies have shown an increased incidence of herpes zoster since the vaccines were launched, there are many other contributing factors, and indeed, this secular trend was evident before their introduction. In conclusion, varicella vaccination easily fits into existing immunization programs and significantly reduces the often underestimated burden of varicella.

Has VZV epidemiology changed in Italy? Results of a seroprevalence study

The aim of the study was to evaluate if and how varicella prevalence has changed in Italy. In particular a seroprevalence study was performed, comparing it to similar surveys conducted in pre-immunization era. During 2013-2014, sera obtained from blood samples taken for diagnostic purposes or routine investigations were collected in collaboration with at least one laboratory/center for each region, following the approval of the Ethics Committee. Data were stratified by sex and age. All samples were processed in a national reference laboratory by an immunoassay with high sensitivity and specificity. Statutory notifications, national hospital discharge database and mortality data related to VZV infection were analyzed as well. A total of 3707 sera were collected and tested. In the studied period both incidence and hospitalization rates decreased and about 5 deaths per year have been registered. The seroprevalence decreased in the first year of life in subjects passively protected by their mother, followed by an increase in the following age classes. The overall antibody prevalence was 84%. The comparison with surveys conducted with the same methodology in 1996-1997 and 2003-2004 showed significant differences in age groups 1-19 y. The study confirms that in Italy VZV infection typically occurs in children. The impact of varicella on Italian population is changing. The comparison between studies performed in different periods shows a significant increase of seropositivity in age class 1 - 4 years, expression of vaccine interventions already adopted in some regions.

Fatal varicella pneumonia in an unvaccinated child with Down Syndrome: a case report

Background

Varicella is an acute infectious disease common during childhood. It has mostly an uncomplicated course in early childhood. Neverthless, it may result in severe complications, especially in particular age groups and clinical conditions. Down Syndrome represents a risk factor for developing complications, because of the frequent comorbidities and their immunodeficiency.

Case presentation

A 2-year-old white Caucasian female affected by Down Syndrome was referred to our hospital for cardiac arrest in course of varicella disease. After cardiopulmonary resuscitation and stabilization, her clinical conditions didn’t improve and she developed a massive pulmonary hemorrage, which led her to exitus.

Conclusions

Mortality due to varicella infection is rare, but it is more common in subjects with immune deficit or chronic pathologies, and in particular age-groups. The importance of the vaccine for preventable infectious diseases is stressed in this paper, in which we present a case of death in an unvaccinated cardiopathic child with Down Syndrome affected by varicella.

Coverage, efficacy or dosing interval: which factor predominantly influences the impact of routine childhood vaccination for the prevention of varicella? A model-based study for Italy

BACKGROUND

Varicella is a highly infectious disease with a significant public health and economic burden, which can be prevented with childhood routine varicella vaccination. Vaccination strategies differ by country. Some factors are known to play an important role (number of doses, coverage, dosing interval, efficacy and catch-up programmes), however, their relative impact on the reduction of varicella in the population remains unclear. This paper aims to help policy makers prioritise the critical factors to achieve the most successful vaccination programme with the available budget.

METHODS

Scenarios assessed the impact of different vaccination strategies on reduction of varicella disease in the population. A dynamic transmission model was used and adapted to fit Italian demographics and population mixing patterns. Inputs included coverage, number of doses, dosing intervals, first-dose efficacy and availability of catch-up programmes, based on strategies currently used or likely to be used in different countries. The time horizon was 30 years.

RESULTS

Both one- and two-dose routine varicella vaccination strategies prevented a comparable number of varicella cases with complications, but two-doses provided broader protection due to prevention of a higher number of milder varicella cases. A catch-up programme in susceptible adolescents aged 10-14 years old reduced varicella cases by 27-43 % in older children, which are often more severe than in younger children. Coverage, for all strategies, sustained at high levels achieved the largest reduction in varicella. In general, a 20 % increase in coverage resulted in a further 27-31 % reduction in varicella cases. When high coverage is reached, the impact of dosing interval and first-dose vaccine efficacy had a relatively lower impact on disease prevention in the population. Compared to the long (11 years) dosing interval, the short (5 months) and medium (5 years) interval schedules reduced varicella cases by a further 5-13 % and 2-5 %, respectively. Similarly, a 10 % increase in first-dose efficacy (from 65 to 75 % efficacy) prevented 2-5 % more varicella cases, suggesting it is the least influential factor when considering routine varicella vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination strategies can be implemented differently in each country depending on their needs, infrastructure and healthcare budget. However, ensuring high coverage remains the critical success factor for significant prevention of varicella when introducing varicella vaccination in the national immunisation programme.