Modeling rare species distribution at the edge: the case for the vulnerable endemic Pyrenean desman in France

Metapopulation Patterns of Iberian Butterflies Revealed by Fuzzy Logic

Metapopulation theory considers that the populations of many species are fragmented into patches connected by the migration of individuals through an interterritorial matrix. We applied fuzzy set theory and environmental favorability (F) functions to reveal the metapopulational structure of the 222 butterfly species in the Iberian Peninsula. We used the sets of contiguous grid cells with high favorability (F ≥ 0.8), to identify the favorable patches for each species. We superimposed the known occurrence data to reveal the occupied and empty favorable patches, as unoccupied patches are functional in a metapopulation dynamics analysis. We analyzed the connectivity between patches of each metapopulation by focusing on the territory of intermediate and low favorability for the species (F < 0.8). The friction that each cell opposes to the passage of individuals was computed as 1-F. We used the r.cost function of QGIS to calculate the cost of reaching each cell from a favorable patch. The inverse of the cost was computed as connectivity. Only 126 species can be considered to have a metapopulation structure. These metapopulation structures are part of the dark biodiversity of butterflies because their identification is not evident from the observation of the occurrence data but was revealed using favorability functions.

Local habitat preferences of a semi-aquatic mammal, the Pyrenean desman Galemys pyrenaicus

To date, the large-scale distribution of the endangered Pyrenean desman, Galemys pyrenaicus, has been related to various abiotic factors (e.g. riverbed and riverbank characteristics, hydrology, topography, climate). However, none could fully explain the recent observed range contraction of the species, suggesting the influence of other drivers. In this study, the potential effect of some unexplored variables on the Pyrenean desman presence was investigated at the local scale (i.e. stream reaches) in the French Pyrenees. They described not only the riverbed, riverbanks, water chemistry, topography and pedology but also the presence of potential interacting species. Generalised linear models were implemented to select the best drivers of the Pyrenean desman presence. Our results stressed the relevance of considering human impacts at the riverbed scale, river narrowing and water chemistry to explain the local distribution of the Pyrenean desman. The presence of two potential competitors, the Eurasian water shrew Neomys fodiens and the dipper Cinclus cinclus, was also highly correlated to the species presence in stream reaches. This suggests that all three species may use the same resources within streams, which could be a potential source of competitive interactions. This study not only highlights the importance of maintaining the riverbed integrity for the Pyrenean desman but also stresses the need to assess the extent to which biotic interactions may affect its distribution in order to understand its current decline.

Can Recent Global Changes Explain the Dramatic Range Contraction of an Endangered Semi-Aquatic Mammal Species in the French Pyrenees?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are the main tool to predict global change impacts on species ranges. Climate change alone is frequently considered, but in freshwater ecosystems, hydrology is a key driver of the ecology of aquatic species. At large scale, hydrology is however rarely accounted for, owing to the lack of detailed stream flow data. In this study, we developed an integrated modelling approach to simulate stream flow using the hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Simulated stream flow was subsequently included as an input variable in SDMs along with topographic, hydrographic, climatic and land-cover descriptors. SDMs were applied to two temporally-distinct surveys of the distribution of the endangered Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the French Pyrenees: a historical one conducted from 1985 to 1992 and a current one carried out between 2011 and 2013. The model calibrated on historical data was also forecasted onto the current period to assess its ability to describe the distributional change of the Pyrenean desman that has been modelled in the recent years. First, we found that hydrological and climatic variables were the ones influencing the most the distribution of this species for both periods, emphasizing the importance of taking into account hydrology when SDMs are applied to aquatic species. Secondly, our results highlighted a strong range contraction of the Pyrenean desman in the French Pyrenees over the last 25 years. Given that this range contraction was under-estimated when the historical model was forecasted onto current conditions, this finding suggests that other drivers may be interacting with climate, hydrology and land-use changes. Our results imply major concerns for the conservation of this endemic semi-aquatic mammal since changes in climate and hydrology are expected to become more intense in the future.

Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation

Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose) niche in Andorra (Pyrenees). This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species's distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km(2) or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9-70.1 km(2) by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species' plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.

Risks in extrapolating habitat preferences over the geographical range of threatened taxa: a case study of the quokka (Setonix brachyurus) in the southern forests of Western Australia

Context Extrapolation of knowledge for threatened taxa between parts of their range that are disconnected and/or ecologically diverse can result in significant sources of error that undermine the effectiveness of conservation efforts. Aims We investigated the risks associated with extrapolation of ecological information across environmental gradients, using the quokka (Setonix brachyurus) as a case study. Information documented in the northern part of its range is currently used to manage this species across its range in south-western Australia. We examined the suitability of this approach by developing a habitat suitability model (HSM) for the quokka in the southernmost areas of its range and comparing this with existing knowledge for the species. Methods We surveyed 327 sites, representative of a range of ecotypes, for presence/absence of quokkas. Occupancy models were applied to select a subset of habitat variables that best predicted occupancy patterns. Key results Occupancy patterns were influenced by complex vegetation structure, low levels of woody debris and habitat patchiness. HSMs developed for quokkas in the north could not predict occupancy patterns in the south. Significant fragmentation of subpopulations was observed due to patchiness in the availability of suitable habitat. Conclusions The choice of predictor variables in HSMs that are not transferrable between regions could contribute to inappropriate management of habitat for quokkas and an increased risk of local extinctions. In addition, failure to consider processes that affect preferred habitat variables could contribute to the segregation of habitat patches and intervening distances that are too great for successful dispersal, immigration and recolonisation processes. Implications The extrapolation of HSMs between geographical areas can increase the risk of outcomes that are detrimental to the conservation of threatened species. Where such extrapolation is necessary, actions guided by the HSMs should be implemented in a management framework that can detect adverse effects, allow for inclusion of new ecological information and explicitly consider the limitations and assumptions of this approach. In addition, perceptions of habitat fragmentation need to include processes such as fire regimes and feral animals that affect the availability and connectivity of habitat and have the potential to adversely affect population viability.