Timing of antiviral treatment initiation is critical to reduce SARS-CoV-2 viral load

In silico dynamics of COVID-19 phenotypes for optimizing clinical management

Understanding the underlying mechanisms of COVID-19 progression and the impact of various pharmaceutical interventions is crucial for the clinical management of the disease. We developed a comprehensive mathematical framework based on the known mechanisms of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, incorporating the renin-angiotensin system and ACE2, which the virus exploits for cellular entry, key elements of the innate and adaptive immune responses, the role of inflammatory cytokines, and the coagulation cascade for thrombus formation. The model predicts the evolution of viral load, immune cells, cytokines, thrombosis, and oxygen saturation based on patient baseline condition and the presence of comorbidities. Model predictions were validated with clinical data from healthy people and COVID-19 patients, and the results were used to gain insight into identified risk factors of disease progression including older age; comorbidities such as obesity, diabetes, and hypertension; and dysregulated immune response. We then simulated treatment with various drug classes to identify optimal therapeutic protocols. We found that the outcome of any treatment depends on the sustained response rate of activated CD8+ T cells and sufficient control of the innate immune response. Furthermore, the best treatment-or combination of treatments-depends on the preinfection health status of the patient. Our mathematical framework provides important insight into SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and could be used as the basis for personalized, optimal management of COVID-19.

Protective Potentials of Type III Interferons in COVID-19 Patients: Lessons from Differential Properties of Type I- and III Interferons

While an appropriately regulated production of interferons (IFNs) performs a fundamental role in the defense against coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), dysregulated overproduction of inflammatory mediators can play an important role in the development of SARS-CoV-2 infection-related complications, such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. As the principal constituents of innate immunity, both type I and III IFNs share antiviral features. However, important properties, including preferential expression at mucosal barriers (such as respiratory tract), local influences, lower receptor distribution, smaller target cell types, noninflammatory effects, and immunomodulatory impacts, were attributed only to type III IFNs. Accordingly, type III IFNs can establish an optimal effective antiviral response, without triggering exaggerated systemic inflammation that is generally attributed to the type I IFNs. However, some harmful effects were attributed to the III IFNs and there are also major differences between human and mouse concerning the immunomodulatory effects of III IFNs. Here, we describe the differential properties of type I and type III IFNs and present a model of IFN response during SARS-COV-2 infection, while highlighting the superior potential of type III IFNs in COVID-19.

Potency and timing of antiviral therapy as determinants of duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding and intensity of inflammatory response

To affect the COVID-19 pandemic, lifesaving antiviral therapies must be identified. The number of clinical trials that can be performed is limited. We developed mathematical models to project multiple therapeutic approaches. Our models recapitulate off-treatment viral dynamics and predict a three-phase immune response. Simulated treatment with remdesivir, selinexor, neutralizing antibodies, or cellular immunotherapy demonstrates that rapid viral elimination is possible if in vivo potency is sufficiently high. Therapies dosed soon after peak viral load when symptoms develop may decrease shedding duration and immune response intensity but have little effect on viral area under the curve (AUC), which is driven by high early viral loads. Potent therapy dosed before viral peak during presymptomatic infection could lower AUC. Drug resistance may emerge with a moderately potent agent dosed before viral peak. Our results support early treatment for COVID-19 if shedding duration, not AUC, is most predictive of clinical severity.

In-host Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 in Humans

COVID-19 pandemic has underlined the impact of emergent pathogens as a major threat to human health. The development of quantitative approaches to advance comprehension of the current outbreak is urgently needed to tackle this severe disease. Considering different starting times of infection, mathematical models are proposed to represent SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in infected patients. Based on the target cell limited model, the within-host reproductive number for SARS-CoV-2 is consistent with the broad values of human influenza infection. The best model to fit the data was including immune cell response, which suggests a slow immune response peaking between 5 to 10 days post-onset of symptoms. The model with the eclipse phase, time in a latent phase before becoming productively infected cells, was not supported. Interestingly, model simulations predict that SARS-CoV-2 may replicate very slowly in the first days after infection, and viral load could be below detection levels during the first 4 days post infection. A quantitative comprehension of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and the estimation of standard parameters of viral infections is the key contribution of this pioneering work. These models can serve for future evaluation of control theoretical approaches to tailor new drugs against COVID-19.

Clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with covid-19 pneumonia who require oxygen: observational comparative study using routine care data

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) pneumonia who require oxygen.

DESIGN

Comparative observational study using data collected from routine care.

SETTING

Four French tertiary care centres providing care to patients with covid-19 pneumonia between 12 March and 31 March 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

181 patients aged 18-80 years with documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia who required oxygen but not intensive care.

INTERVENTIONS

Hydroxychloroquine at a dose of 600 mg/day within 48 hours of admission to hospital (treatment group) versus standard care without hydroxychloroquine (control group).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was survival without transfer to the intensive care unit at day 21. Secondary outcomes were overall survival, survival without acute respiratory distress syndrome, weaning from oxygen, and discharge from hospital to home or rehabilitation (all at day 21). Analyses were adjusted for confounding factors by inverse probability of treatment weighting.

RESULTS

In the main analysis, 84 patients who received hydroxychloroquine within 48 hours of admission to hospital (treatment group) were compared with 89 patients who did not receive hydroxychloroquine (control group). Eight additional patients received hydroxychloroquine more than 48 hours after admission. In the weighted analyses, the survival rate without transfer to the intensive care unit at day 21 was 76% in the treatment group and 75% in the control group (weighted hazard ratio 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.1). Overall survival at day 21 was 89% in the treatment group and 91% in the control group (1.2, 0.4 to 3.3). Survival without acute respiratory distress syndrome at day 21 was 69% in the treatment group compared with 74% in the control group (1.3, 0.7 to 2.6). At day 21, 82% of patients in the treatment group had been weaned from oxygen compared with 76% in the control group (weighted risk ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.9 to 1.3). Eight patients in the treatment group (10%) experienced electrocardiographic modifications that required discontinuation of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Hydroxychloroquine has received worldwide attention as a potential treatment for covid-19 because of positive results from small studies. However, the results of this study do not support its use in patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 who require oxygen.