Estimating the strength of selection for new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Occurrence of a novel cleavage site for cathepsin G adjacent to the polybasic sequence within the proteolytically sensitive activation loop of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: The amino acid substitution N679K and P681H of the spike protein

The serine proteases neutrophil elastase (NE), proteinase 3 (PR3), cathepsin G (CatG), and neutrophil serine protease 4 (NSP4) are secreted by activated neutrophils as a part of the innate immune response against invading pathogens. However, these serine proteases might be adopted by viruses to mediate viral surface protein priming resulting in host cell entrance and productive infection. Indeed, NE and PR3 hydrolyze the scissile peptide bond within the proteolytically sensitive polybasic sequence of the activation loop of SARS-CoV-2 located at the S1/S2 interface of the Spike (S) protein; an amino acid motif which differs from SARS-CoV-1. The occurrence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants and substitution of distinct amino acids at the polybasic sequence prompts serious concerns regarding increased transmissibility. We propose that a novel cleavage site by CatG of the Omicron variant and the increased substrate turnover of the Delta variant by furin within the polybasic sequence should be considered for increased transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout

There is a consensus that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will ultimately end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is not clear when and which control measures can be relaxed during the rollout of vaccination programmes. We investigate relaxation scenarios using an age-structured transmission model that has been fitted to age-specific seroprevalence data, hospital admissions, and projected vaccination coverage for Portugal. Our analyses suggest that the pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities could lead to new pandemic waves, and that substantial control efforts prove necessary throughout 2021. Using knowledge on control measures introduced in 2020, we anticipate that relaxing measures completely or to the extent as in autumn 2020 could launch a wave starting in April 2021. Additional waves could be prevented altogether if measures are relaxed as in summer 2020 or in a step-wise manner throughout 2021. We discuss at which point the control of COVID-19 would be achieved for each scenario.