Effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir against hospital admission or death: a cohort study in a large US healthcare system

Nirmatrelvir for Vaccinated or Unvaccinated Adult Outpatients with Covid-19

BACKGROUND

Nirmatrelvir in combination with ritonavir is an antiviral treatment for mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). The efficacy of this treatment in patients who are at standard risk for severe Covid-19 or who are fully vaccinated and have at least one risk factor for severe Covid-19 has not been established.

METHODS

In this phase 2-3 trial, we randomly assigned adults who had confirmed Covid-19 with symptom onset within the past 5 days in a 1:1 ratio to receive nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or placebo every 12 hours for 5 days. Patients who were fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and who had at least one risk factor for severe disease, as well as patients without such risk factors who had never been vaccinated against Covid-19 or had not been vaccinated within the previous year, were eligible for participation. Participants logged the presence and severity of prespecified Covid-19 signs and symptoms daily from day 1 through day 28. The primary end point was the time to sustained alleviation of all targeted Covid-19 signs and symptoms. Covid-19-related hospitalization and death from any cause were also assessed through day 28.

RESULTS

Among the 1296 participants who underwent randomization and were included in the full analysis population, 1288 received at least one dose of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (654 participants) or placebo (634 participants) and had at least one postbaseline visit. The median time to sustained alleviation of all targeted signs and symptoms of Covid-19 was 12 days in the nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group and 13 days in the placebo group (P = 0.60). Five participants (0.8%) in the nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group and 10 (1.6%) in the placebo group were hospitalized for Covid-19 or died from any cause (difference, -0.8 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, -2.0 to 0.4). The percentages of participants with adverse events were similar in the two groups (25.8% with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and 24.1% with placebo). In the nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group, the most commonly reported treatment-related adverse events were dysgeusia (in 5.8% of the participants) and diarrhea (in 2.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

The time to sustained alleviation of all signs and symptoms of Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and those who received placebo. (Supported by Pfizer; EPIC-SR ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05011513.).

The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and other public health outcomes during the BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge, New York City, April-May 2022

BACKGROUND

Routine case surveillance data for SARS-CoV-2 are incomplete, unrepresentative, missing key variables of interest, and may be increasingly unreliable for timely surge detection and understanding the true burden of infection.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of 1030 New York City (NYC) adult residents ≥18 years on May 7-8, 2022. We estimated the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the preceding 14-day period. Respondents were asked about SARS-CoV-2 testing, testing outcomes, COVID-like symptoms, and contact with SARS-CoV-2 cases. SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates were age- and sex-adjusted to the 2020 U.S.

POPULATION

We triangulated survey-based prevalence estimates with contemporaneous official SARS-CoV-2 counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, as well as SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations.

RESULTS

We show that 22.1% (95% CI 17.9-26.2%) of respondents had SARS-CoV-2 infection during the two-week study period, corresponding to ~1.5 million adults (95% CI 1.3-1.8 million). The official SARS-CoV-2 case count during the study period is 51,218. Prevalence is estimated at 36.6% (95% CI 28.3-45.8%) among individuals with co-morbidities, 13.7% (95% CI 10.4-17.9%) among those 65+ years, and 15.3% (95% CI 9.6-23.5%) among unvaccinated persons. Among individuals with a SARS-CoV-2 infection, hybrid immunity (history of both vaccination and infection) is 66.2% (95% CI 55.7-76.7%), 44.1% (95% CI 33.0-55.1%) were aware of the antiviral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 15.1% (95% CI 7.1-23.1%) reported receiving it. Hospitalizations, deaths and SARS-CoV-2 virus concentrations in wastewater remained well below that during the BA.1 surge.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the true magnitude of NYC's BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge may have been vastly underestimated by routine case counts and wastewater surveillance. Hybrid immunity, bolstered by the recent BA.1 surge, likely limited the severity of the BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Treatment With Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir or Molnupiravir Among U.S. Veterans: Target Trial Emulation Studies With One-Month and Six-Month Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Information about the effectiveness of oral antivirals in preventing short- and long-term COVID-19-related outcomes in the setting of Omicron variant transmission and COVID-19 vaccination is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To measure the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir for outpatient treatment of COVID-19.

DESIGN

Three retrospective target trial emulation studies comparing matched cohorts of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment, molnupiravir versus no treatment, and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus molnupiravir.

SETTING

Veterans Health Administration (VHA).

PARTICIPANTS

Nonhospitalized veterans in VHA care who were at risk for severe COVID-19 and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January through July 2022.

INTERVENTION

Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir pharmacotherapy.

MEASUREMENTS

Incidence of any hospitalization or all-cause mortality at 30 days and from 31 to 180 days.

RESULTS

Eighty-seven percent of participants were male; the median age was 66 years, and 18% were unvaccinated. Compared with matched untreated control participants, those treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n = 9607) had lower 30-day risk for hospitalization (22.07 vs. 30.32 per 1000 participants; risk difference [RD], -8.25 [95% CI, -12.27 to -4.23] per 1000 participants) and death (1.25 vs. 5.47 per 1000 participants; RD, -4.22 [CI, -5.45 to -3.00] per 1000 participants). Among persons alive at day 31, reductions were seen in 31- to 180-day incidence of death (hazard ratio, 0.66 [CI, 0.49 to 0.89]) but not hospitalization (subhazard ratio, 0.90 [CI, 0.79 to 1.02]). Molnupiravir-treated participants (n = 3504) had lower 30-day and 31- to 180-day risks for death (3.14 vs. 13.56 per 1000 participants at 30 days; RD, -10.42 [CI, -13.49 to -7.35] per 1000 participants; hazard ratio at 31 to 180 days, 0.67 [CI, 0.48 to 0.95]) but not hospitalization. A difference in 30-day or 31- to 180-day risk for hospitalization or death was not observed between matched nirmatrelvir- or molnupiravir-treated participants.

LIMITATION

The date of COVID-19 symptom onset for most veterans was unknown.

CONCLUSION

Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was effective in reducing 30-day hospitalization and death. Molnupiravir was associated with a benefit for 30-day mortality but not hospitalization. Further reductions in mortality from 31 to 180 days were observed with both antivirals.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Characteristics and outcomes of US Veterans at least 65 years of age at high risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection with or without receipt of oral antiviral agents

OBJECTIVES

Molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir each became available in the United States (US) through the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) emergency use authorization (EUA) in December 2021 after their respective initial prospective randomized controlled trials demonstrated efficacy for patients with mild-to-moderate SARS-CoV-2 active infection considered to be at high risk for progression of disease and hospitalization. Although sufficiently powered for this wide group, the mean age for patients in these studies was only 43 and 46 years of age, respectively. We sought to compare outcomes of US Veterans 65 years and older who received either of these oral antivirals to those who did not receive oral antivirals for mild-to-moderate SARS-CoV-2 active infection.

METHODS

The current project was a retrospective, observational, nationwide propensity-matched analysis comparing outcomes of US Veterans 65 years and older who received either of these oral antivirals to US Veterans 65 years and older who did not receive oral antivirals for mild-to-moderate SARS-CoV-2 active infection.

RESULTS

The composite primary outcome of admission or death within 30 days of diagnosis was reached less often in those receiving either molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir/ritonavir versus those that received no antiviral (65/1370 [4.75%] vs. 139/1370 [10.2%]; odds ratio 0.44, 95% confidence interval 0.32-0.60, p<0.0001). Baseline differences between Veterans selected for molnupiravir vs. nirmatrelvir/ritonavir therapy were noted, particularly in the number of concomitant medications with cautions or contraindications with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the use of molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in patients 65 years of age and older. Patients with higher medication caution and contraindication burdens to nirmatrelvir/ritonavir are selected for molnupiravir therapy, which in the absence of a prospective head-to-head trial, may limit any efforts to compare the effectiveness of the two drugs.

Nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir in COVID-19: a profile of its use

Oral nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (Paxlovid^™) is an effective treatment option for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the illness caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Nirmatrelvir inhibits the main protease of SARS-CoV-2, with ritonavir acting as a pharmacokinetic booster. In the phase II/III EPIC-HR trial, nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir reduced the risk of progression to severe COVID-19 in symptomatic, unvaccinated, non-hospitalized adults with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 at high risk for progression to severe disease. The incidence of COVID-19-related hospitalization or death through day 28 was significantly lower with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir than with placebo. The efficacy of nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir has also been demonstrated in the real-world setting. Nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir is generally well tolerated, with most adverse events being of mild or moderate severity.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40267-022-00971-1.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 treatment with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir among U.S. Veterans: target trial emulation studies with one-month and six-month outcomes

Background

Information about the effectiveness of oral antivirals in preventing short- and long-term COVID-19-related outcomes during the Omicron surge is limited. We sought to determine the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir for the outpatient treatment of COVID-19.

Methods

We conducted three retrospective target trial emulation studies comparing matched patient cohorts who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment, molnupiravir versus no treatment, and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus molnupiravir in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Participants were Veterans in VHA care at risk for severe COVID-19 who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the outpatient setting during January and February 2022. Primary outcomes included all-cause 30-day hospitalization or death and 31-180-day incidence of acute or long-term care admission, death, or post-COVID-19 conditions. For 30-day outcomes, we calculated unadjusted risk rates, risk differences, and risk ratios. For 31-180-day outcomes, we used unadjusted time-to-event analyses.

Results

Participants were 90% male with median age 67 years and 26% unvaccinated. Compared to matched untreated controls, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir-treated participants (N=1,587) had a lower 30-day risk of hospitalization (27.10/1000 versus 41.06/1000, risk difference [RD] - 13.97, 95% CI -23.85 to -4.09) and death (3.15/1000 versus 14.86/1000, RD -11.71, 95% CI - 16.07 to -7.35). Among persons who were alive at day 31, further significant reductions in 31-180-day incidence of hospitalization (sub-hazard ratio 1.07, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.37) or death (hazard ratio 0.61, 95% CI 0.35 to 1.08) were not observed. Molnupiravir-treated participants aged ≥65 years (n=543) had a lower combined 30-day risk of hospitalization or death (55.25/1000 versus 82.35/1000, RD -27.10, 95% CI -50.63 to -3.58). A statistically significant difference in 30-day or 31-180-day risk of hospitalization or death was not observed between matched nirmatrelvir- or molnupiravir-treated participants. Incidence of most post-COVID conditions was similar across comparison groups.

Conclusions

Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was highly effective in preventing 30-day hospitalization and death. Short-term benefit from molnupiravir was observed in older groups. Significant reductions in adverse outcomes from 31-180 days were not observed with either antiviral.

Update on COVID-19 Therapy in Pediatric Age

With the extension of the COVID-19 pandemic, the large use of COVID-19 vaccines among adults and the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants means that the epidemiology of COVID-19 in pediatrics, particularly among younger children, has substantially changed. The prevalence of pediatric COVID-19 significantly increased, several severe cases among children were reported, and long-COVID in pediatric age was frequently observed. The main aim of this paper is to discuss which types of treatment are presently available for pediatric patients with COVID-19, which of them are authorized for the first years of life, and which are the most important limitations of COVID-19 therapy in pediatric age. Four different antivirals, remdesivir (RVD), the combination nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (Paxlovid), molnupiravir (MPV), and the monoclonal antibody bebtelovimab (BEB), are presently approved or authorized for emergency use for COVID-19 treatment by most of the national health authorities, although with limitations according to the clinical relevance of disease and patient's characteristics. Analyses in the literature show that MPV cannot be used in pediatric age for the risk of adverse events regarding bone growth. The other antivirals can be used, at least in older children, and RDV can be used in all children except in neonates. However, careful research on pharmacokinetic and clinical data specifically collected in neonates and children are urgently needed for the appropriate management of pediatric COVID-19.

Paxlovid Associated with Decreased Hospitalization Rate Among Adults with COVID-19 - United States, April-September 2022

Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid), an oral antiviral treatment, is authorized for adults with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who are at increased risk for progression to severe illness. However, real-world evidence on the benefit of Paxlovid, according to vaccination status, age group, and underlying health conditions, is limited. To examine the benefit of Paxlovid in adults aged ≥18 years in the United States, a large electronic health record (EHR) data set (Cosmos^†) was analyzed to assess the association between receiving a prescription for Paxlovid and hospitalization with a COVID-19 diagnosis in the ensuing 30 days. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate this association, adjusted for demographic characteristics, geographic location, vaccination, previous infection, and number of underlying health conditions. Among 699,848 adults aged ≥18 years eligible for Paxlovid during April-August 2022, 28.4% received a Paxlovid prescription within 5 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. Being prescribed Paxlovid was associated with a lower hospitalization rate among the overall study population (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.49), among those who had received ≥3 mRNA COVID-19 vaccines (aHR = 0.50), and across age groups (18-49 years: aHR = 0.59; 50-64 years: aHR = 0.40; and ≥65 years: aHR = 0.53). Paxlovid should be prescribed to eligible adults to reduce the risk of COVID-19-associated hospitalization.

Oral Antiviral Treatment for COVID-19: A Comprehensive Review on Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir

Despite the rapid development of efficient and safe vaccines against COVID-19, the need to confine the pandemic and treat infected individuals on an outpatient basis has led to the approval of oral antiviral agents. Taking into account the viral kinetic pattern of SARS-CoV-2, it is of high importance to intervene at the early stages of the disease. A protease inhibitor called nirmatrelvir coupled with ritonavir (NMV/r), which acts as a CYP3A inhibitor, delivered as an oral formulation, has shown much promise in preventing disease progression in high-risk patients with no need for supplemental oxygen administration. Real-world data seem to confirm the drug combination's efficacy and safety against all viral variants of concern in adult populations. Although, not fully clarified, viral rebound and recurrence of COVID-19 symptoms have been described following treatment; however, more data on potential resistance issues concerning the Mpro gene, which acts as the drug's therapeutic target, are needed. NMV/r has been a gamechanger in the fight against the pandemic by preventing hospitalizations and halting disease severity; therefore, more research on future development and greater awareness on its use are warranted.