Noise-enabled species recovery in the aftermath of a tipping point

Global phase-space approach to rate-induced tipping: A brief review

In nonautonomous dynamical systems, rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) is a critical transition triggered by the rate of change of a time-varying parameter, rather than its absolute value. In recent years, there is a growing interest in R-tipping due to its relevance to significant problems of current interest, such as potential, catastrophic collapse of various ecosystems induced by climate change. This brief review provides an overview of the basic concept, theory, and real-world implications of R-tipping from a global phase-space point of view. The key quantity underlying the global approach is the probability of R-tipping defined with respect to initial conditions in the phase space. A recently discovered scaling law governing this probability and the rate of parameter change is introduced, which has so far been restricted to a class of high-dimensional, complex, and empirical ecological networks: pollinator-plant mutualistic networks. Issues such as prediction of tipping and protection of ecosystems from R-tipping are discussed.

Understanding pesticide-induced tipping in plant-pollinator networks across geographical scales: Prioritizing richness and modularity over nestedness

Mutually beneficial interactions between plants and pollinators are crucial for biodiversity, ecosystem stability, and crop production. A threat to a mutualistic network is the occurrence of a tipping point at which the species abundances collapse to a near zero level. In modern agriculture, there is widespread use of pesticides. What are the effects of extensive pesticide use on mutualistic networks? We develop a plant-pollinator-pesticide model and study its dynamics using 123 mutualistic networks across the globe. We demonstrate that pesticide exposure can lead to a tipping point. Furthermore, while the network characteristics such as richness and modularity exhibit a strong association with pesticide-induced tipping, nestedness shows a weak association. A surprising finding is that the mutualistic networks in the African continent are less pesticide tolerant than those in Europe. We articulate and test a pragmatic intervention strategy through targeted management of pesticide levels within specific plant species to delay or avert the tipping point. Our study provides quantitative insights into the phenomenon of pesticide-induced tipping for safeguarding mutualistic networks that are fundamental to agriculture and ecosystems.

Mechanism of multistability in chaotic maps

This research aims to investigate the mechanisms of multistability in chaotic maps. The study commences by examining the fundamental principles governing the development of homogeneous multistability using a basic one-dimensional chain-climbing map. Findings suggest that the phase space can be segmented into distinct uniform mediums where particles exhibit consistent movement. As critical parameter values are reached, channels emerge between these mediums, resulting in deterministic chaotic diffusion. Additionally, the study delves into the topic of introducing heterogeneous factors on the formation of heterogeneous multistability in the one-dimensional map. A thorough examination of phenomena such as multistate intermittency highlights the intimate connection between specific phase transition occurrences and channel formation. Finally, by analyzing two instances-a memristive chaotic map and a hyperchaotic map-the underlying factors contributing to the emergence of multistability are scrutinized. This study offers an alternative perspective for verifying the fundamental principles of homogenous and heterogeneous multistability in complex high-dimensional chaotic maps.

Folding State within a Hysteresis Loop: Hidden Multistability in Nonlinear Physical Systems

Identifying hidden states in nonlinear physical systems that evade direct experimental detection is important as disturbances and noises can place the system in a hidden state with detrimental consequences. We study a cavity magnonic system whose main physics is photon and magnon Kerr effects. Sweeping a bifurcation parameter in numerical experiments (as would be done in actual experiments) leads to a hysteresis loop with two distinct stable steady states, but analytic calculation gives a third folded steady state "hidden" in the loop, which gives rise to the phenomenon of hidden multistability. We propose an experimentally feasible control method to drive the system into the folded hidden state. We demonstrate, through a ternary cavity magnonic system and a gene regulatory network, that such hidden multistability is in fact quite common. Our findings shed light on hidden dynamical states in nonlinear physical systems which are not directly observable but can present challenges and opportunities in applications.

Rate-induced tipping in complex high-dimensional ecological networks

In an ecosystem, environmental changes as a result of natural and human processes can cause some key parameters of the system to change with time. Depending on how fast such a parameter changes, a tipping point can occur. Existing works on rate-induced tipping, or R-tipping, offered a theoretical way to study this phenomenon but from a local dynamical point of view, revealing, e.g., the existence of a critical rate for some specific initial condition above which a tipping point will occur. As ecosystems are subject to constant disturbances and can drift away from their equilibrium point, it is necessary to study R-tipping from a global perspective in terms of the initial conditions in the entire relevant phase space region. In particular, we introduce the notion of the probability of R-tipping defined for initial conditions taken from the whole relevant phase space. Using a number of real-world, complex mutualistic networks as a paradigm, we find a scaling law between this probability and the rate of parameter change and provide a geometric theory to explain the law. The real-world implication is that even a slow parameter change can lead to a system collapse with catastrophic consequences. In fact, to mitigate the environmental changes by merely slowing down the parameter drift may not always be effective: Only when the rate of parameter change is reduced to practically zero would the tipping be avoided. Our global dynamics approach offers a more complete and physically meaningful way to understand the important phenomenon of R-tipping.

The fundamental benefits of multiplexity in ecological networks

A tipping point presents perhaps the single most significant threat to an ecological system as it can lead to abrupt species extinction on a massive scale. Climate changes leading to the species decay parameter drifts can drive various ecological systems towards a tipping point. We investigate the tipping-point dynamics in multi-layer ecological networks supported by mutualism. We unveil a natural mechanism by which the occurrence of tipping points can be delayed by multiplexity that broadly describes the diversity of the species abundances, the complexity of the interspecific relationships, and the topology of linkages in ecological networks. For a double-layer system of pollinators and plants, coupling between the network layers occurs when there is dispersal of pollinator species. Multiplexity emerges as the dispersing species establish their presence in the destination layer and have a simultaneous presence in both. We demonstrate that the new mutualistic links induced by the dispersing species with the residence species have fundamental benefits to the well-being of the ecosystem in delaying the tipping point and facilitating species recovery. Articulating and implementing control mechanisms to induce multiplexity can thus help sustain certain types of ecosystems that are in danger of extinction as the result of environmental changes.

Phase transitions in biology: from bird flocks to population dynamics

Phase transitions are an important and extensively studied concept in physics. The insights derived from understanding phase transitions in physics have recently and successfully been applied to a number of different phenomena in biological systems. Here, we provide a brief review of phase transitions and their role in explaining biological processes ranging from collective behaviour in animal flocks to neuronal firing. We also highlight a new and exciting area where phase transition theory is particularly applicable: population collapse and extinction. We discuss how phase transition theory can give insight into a range of extinction events such as population decline due to climate change or microbial responses to stressors such as antibiotic treatment.

Effects of stochasticity on the length and behaviour of ecological transients

There is a growing recognition that ecological systems can spend extended periods of time far away from an asymptotic state, and that ecological understanding will therefore require a deeper appreciation for how long ecological transients arise. Recent work has defined classes of deterministic mechanisms that can lead to long transients. Given the ubiquity of stochasticity in ecological systems, a similar systematic treatment of transients that includes the influence of stochasticity is important. Stochasticity can of course promote the appearance of transient dynamics by preventing systems from settling permanently near their asymptotic state, but stochasticity also interacts with deterministic features to create qualitatively new dynamics. As such, stochasticity may shorten, extend or fundamentally change a system's transient dynamics. Here, we describe a general framework that is developing for understanding the range of possible outcomes when random processes impact the dynamics of ecological systems over realistic time scales. We emphasize that we can understand the ways in which stochasticity can either extend or reduce the lifetime of transients by studying the interactions between the stochastic and deterministic processes present, and we summarize both the current state of knowledge and avenues for future advances.

Control of tipping points in stochastic mutualistic complex networks

Nonlinear stochastic complex networks in ecological systems can exhibit tipping points. They can signify extinction from a survival state and, conversely, a recovery transition from extinction to survival. We investigate a control method that delays the extinction and advances the recovery by controlling the decay rate of pollinators of diverse rankings in a pollinators-plants stochastic mutualistic complex network. Our investigation is grounded on empirical networks occurring in natural habitats. We also address how the control method is affected by both environmental and demographic noises. By comparing the empirical network with the random and scale-free networks, we also study the influence of the topological structure on the control effect. Finally, we carry out a theoretical analysis using a reduced dimensional model. A remarkable result of this work is that the introduction of pollinator species in the habitat, which is immune to environmental deterioration and that is in mutualistic relationship with the collapsed ones, definitely helps in promoting the recovery. This has implications for managing ecological systems.

Tipping point and noise-induced transients in ecological networks

A challenging and outstanding problem in interdisciplinary research is to understand the interplay between transients and stochasticity in high-dimensional dynamical systems. Focusing on the tipping-point dynamics in complex mutualistic networks in ecology constructed from empirical data, we investigate the phenomena of noise-induced collapse and noise-induced recovery. Two types of noise are studied: environmental (Gaussian white) noise and state-dependent demographic noise. The dynamical mechanism responsible for both phenomena is a transition from one stable steady state to another driven by stochastic forcing, mediated by an unstable steady state. Exploiting a generic and effective two-dimensional reduced model for real-world mutualistic networks, we find that the average transient lifetime scales algebraically with the noise amplitude, for both environmental and demographic noise. We develop a physical understanding of the scaling laws through an analysis of the mean first passage time from one steady state to another. The phenomena of noise-induced collapse and recovery and the associated scaling laws have implications for managing high-dimensional ecological systems.