Layer reconstruction and missing link prediction of a multilayer network with maximum a posteriori estimation

High Reconstructability of Degree-Heterogeneous Networks

Reconstructing complex networks from observed, often noisy data is a fundamental task crucial for understanding complex systems across various domains. Despite numerous methods proposed for network reconstruction, little attention has been given to the relationship between reconstructability and the intrinsic properties of hidden networks. Here, we present a mathematical proof that, for scale-free networks, the reconstruction accuracy increases as the exponent of the power-law degree distribution decreases. This suggests that degree heterogeneity contributes to higher reconstructability. We validate this conclusion in empirical networks, where nodal degrees may not strictly adhere to power laws. Our results demonstrate that the reconstruction accuracy of degree-heterogeneous networks is indeed significantly higher than that of their randomized counterparts.

Detecting hidden nodes in networks based on random variable resetting method

Reconstructing network connections from measurable data facilitates our understanding of the mechanism of interactions between nodes. However, the unmeasurable nodes in real networks, also known as hidden nodes, introduce new challenges for reconstruction. There have been some hidden node detection methods, but most of them are limited by system models, network structures, and other conditions. In this paper, we propose a general theoretical method for detecting hidden nodes based on the random variable resetting method. We construct a new time series containing hidden node information based on the reconstruction results of random variable resetting, theoretically analyze the autocovariance of the time series, and finally provide a quantitative criterion for detecting hidden nodes. We numerically simulate our method in discrete and continuous systems and analyze the influence of main factors. The simulation results validate our theoretical derivation and illustrate the robustness of the detection method under different conditions.

Feature learning and network structure from noisy node activity data

In the studies of network structures, much attention has been devoted to developing approaches to reconstruct networks and predict missing links when edge-related information is given. However, such approaches are not applicable when we are only given noisy node activity data with missing values. This work presents an unsupervised learning framework to learn node vectors and construct networks from such node activity data. First, we design a scheme to generate random node sequences from node context sets, which are generated from node activity data. Then, a three-layer neural network is adopted training the node sequences to obtain node vectors, which allow us to construct networks and capture nodes with synergistic roles. Furthermore, we present an entropy-based approach to select the most meaningful neighbors for each node in the resulting network. Finally, the effectiveness of the method is validated through both synthetic and real data.

Estimating data-driven coronavirus disease 2019 mitigation strategies for safe university reopening

After one pandemic year of remote or hybrid instructional modes, universities struggled with plans for an in-person autumn (fall) semester in 2021. To help inform university reopening policies, we collected survey data on social contact patterns and developed an agent-based model to simulate the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in university settings. Considering a reproduction number of R0 = 3 and 70% immunization effectiveness, we estimated that at least 80% of the university population immunized through natural infection or vaccination is needed for safe university reopening with relaxed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). By contrast, at least 60% of the university population immunized through natural infection or vaccination is needed for safe university reopening when NPIs are adopted. Nevertheless, attention needs to be paid to large-gathering events that could lead to infection size spikes. At an immunization coverage of 70%, continuing NPIs, such as wearing masks, could lead to a 78.39% reduction in the maximum cumulative infections and a 67.59% reduction in the median cumulative infections. However, even though this reduction is very beneficial, there is still a possibility of non-negligible size outbreaks because the maximum cumulative infection size is equal to 1.61% of the population, which is substantial.