Small but slow world: how network topology and burstiness slow down spreading

Higher-order correlations reveal complex memory in temporal hypergraphs

Many real-world complex systems are characterized by interactions in groups that change in time. Current temporal network approaches, however, are unable to describe group dynamics, as they are based on pairwise interactions only. Here, we use time-varying hypergraphs to describe such systems, and we introduce a framework based on higher-order correlations to characterize their temporal organization. The analysis of human interaction data reveals the existence of coherent and interdependent mesoscopic structures, thus capturing aggregation, fragmentation and nucleation processes in social systems. We introduce a model of temporal hypergraphs with non-Markovian group interactions, which reveals complex memory as a fundamental mechanism underlying the emerging pattern in the data.

Bursts of communication increase opinion diversity in the temporal Deffuant model

Human interactions create social networks forming the backbone of societies. Individuals adjust their opinions by exchanging information through social interactions. Two recurrent questions are whether social structures promote opinion polarisation or consensus and whether polarisation can be avoided, particularly on social media. In this paper, we hypothesise that not only network structure but also the timings of social interactions regulate the emergence of opinion clusters. We devise a temporal version of the Deffuant opinion model where pairwise social interactions follow temporal patterns. Individuals may self-organise into a multi-partisan society due to network clustering promoting the reinforcement of local opinions. Burstiness has a similar effect and is alone sufficient to refrain the population from consensus and polarisation by also promoting the reinforcement of local opinions. The diversity of opinions in socially clustered networks thus increases with burstiness, particularly, and counter-intuitively, when individuals have low tolerance and prefer to adjust to similar peers. The emergent opinion landscape is well-balanced regarding groups' size, with relatively short differences between groups, and a small fraction of extremists. We argue that polarisation is more likely to emerge in social media than offline social networks because of the relatively low social clustering observed online, despite the observed online burstiness being sufficient to promote more diversity than would be expected offline. Increasing the variance of burst activation times, e.g. by being less active on social media, could be a venue to reduce polarisation. Furthermore, strengthening online social networks by increasing social redundancy, i.e. triangles, may also promote diversity.

Percolation and Topological Properties of Temporal Higher-Order Networks

Many complex systems that exhibit temporal nonpairwise interactions can be represented by means of generative higher-order network models. Here, we propose a hidden variable formalism to analytically characterize a general class of higher-order network models. We apply our framework to a temporal higher-order activity-driven model, providing analytical expressions for the main topological properties of the time-integrated hypergraphs, depending on the integration time and the activity distributions characterizing the model. Furthermore, we provide analytical estimates for the percolation times of general classes of uncorrelated and correlated hypergraphs. Finally, we quantify the extent to which the percolation time of empirical social interactions is underestimated when their higher-order nature is neglected.

Constructing temporal networks with bursty activity patterns

Human social interactions tend to vary in intensity over time, whether they are in person or online. Variable rates of interaction in structured populations can be described by networks with the time-varying activity of links and nodes. One of the key statistics to summarize temporal patterns is the inter-event time, namely the duration between successive pairwise interactions. Empirical studies have found inter-event time distributions that are heavy-tailed, for both physical and digital interactions. But it is difficult to construct theoretical models of time-varying activity on a network that reproduce the burstiness seen in empirical data. Here we develop a spanning-tree method to construct temporal networks and activity patterns with bursty behavior. Our method ensures any desired target inter-event time distributions for individual nodes and links, provided the distributions fulfill a consistency condition, regardless of whether the underlying topology is static or time-varying. We show that this model can reproduce burstiness found in empirical datasets, and so it may serve as a basis for studying dynamic processes in real-world bursty interactions.

Universal patterns in egocentric communication networks

Tie strengths in social networks are heterogeneous, with strong and weak ties playing different roles at the network and individual levels. Egocentric networks, networks of relationships around an individual, exhibit few strong ties and more weaker ties, as evidenced by electronic communication records. Mobile phone data has also revealed persistent individual differences within this pattern. However, the generality and driving mechanisms of social tie strength heterogeneity remain unclear. Here, we study tie strengths in egocentric networks across multiple datasets of interactions between millions of people during months to years. We find universality in tie strength distributions and their individual-level variation across communication modes, even in channels not reflecting offline social relationships. Via a simple model of egocentric network evolution, we show that the observed universality arises from the competition between cumulative advantage and random choice, two tie reinforcement mechanisms whose balance determines the diversity of tie strengths. Our results provide insight into the driving mechanisms of tie strength heterogeneity in social networks and have implications for the understanding of social network structure and individual behavior.

Burstiness and information spreading in active particle systems

We construct a temporal network using the two-dimensional Vicsek model. The bursts of the interevent times for a specific pair of particles are investigated numerically. We found that, for different noise strengths, the distribution of the interevent times of a target edge follows a heavy tail, revealing the burstiness of the signals. To further characterize the nature of the burstiness, we calculate the burstiness parameters and the memory coefficients. The results show that, near the phase transition points of the Vicsek model, the burstiness parameters reach the minimum values for each density, indicating a relationship between the phase transition of the Vicsek model and the bursty nature of the signals. Furthermore, we investigate the spreading dynamics on our temporal network using a susceptible-infected model and observe a positive correlation between them.

Temporal-topological properties of higher-order evolving networks

Human social interactions are typically recorded as time-specific dyadic interactions, and represented as evolving (temporal) networks, where links are activated/deactivated over time. However, individuals can interact in groups of more than two people. Such group interactions can be represented as higher-order events of an evolving network. Here, we propose methods to characterize the temporal-topological properties of higher-order events to compare networks and identify their (dis)similarities. We analyzed 8 real-world physical contact networks, finding the following: (a) Events of different orders close in time tend to be also close in topology; (b) Nodes participating in many different groups (events) of a given order tend to involve in many different groups (events) of another order; Thus, individuals tend to be consistently active or inactive in events across orders; (c) Local events that are close in topology are correlated in time, supporting observation (a). Differently, in 5 collaboration networks, observation (a) is almost absent; Consistently, no evident temporal correlation of local events has been observed in collaboration networks. Such differences between the two classes of networks may be explained by the fact that physical contacts are proximity based, in contrast to collaboration networks. Our methods may facilitate the investigation of how properties of higher-order events affect dynamic processes unfolding on them and possibly inspire the development of more refined models of higher-order time-varying networks.

Contact networks have small metric backbones that maintain community structure and are primary transmission subgraphs

The structure of social networks strongly affects how different phenomena spread in human society, from the transmission of information to the propagation of contagious diseases. It is well-known that heterogeneous connectivity strongly favors spread, but a precise characterization of the redundancy present in social networks and its effect on the robustness of transmission is still lacking. This gap is addressed by the metric backbone, a weight- and connectivity-preserving subgraph that is sufficient to compute all shortest paths of weighted graphs. This subgraph is obtained via algebraically-principled axioms and does not require statistical sampling based on null-models. We show that the metric backbones of nine contact networks obtained from proximity sensors in a variety of social contexts are generally very small, 49% of the original graph for one and ranging from about 6% to 20% for the others. This reflects a surprising amount of redundancy and reveals that shortest paths on these networks are very robust to random attacks and failures. We also show that the metric backbone preserves the full distribution of shortest paths of the original contact networks-which must include the shortest inter- and intra-community distances that define any community structure-and is a primary subgraph for epidemic transmission based on pure diffusion processes. This suggests that the organization of social contact networks is based on large amounts of shortest-path redundancy which shapes epidemic spread in human populations. Thus, the metric backbone is an important subgraph with regard to epidemic spread, the robustness of social networks, and any communication dynamics that depend on complex network shortest paths.

Aging in binary-state models: The Threshold model for complex contagion

We study the non-Markovian effects associated with aging for binary-state dynamics in complex networks. Aging is considered as the property of the agents to be less prone to change their state the longer they have been in the current state, which gives rise to heterogeneous activity patterns. In particular, we analyze aging in the Threshold model, which has been proposed to explain the process of adoption of new technologies. Our analytical approximations give a good description of extensive Monte Carlo simulations in Erdős-Rényi, random-regular and Barabási-Albert networks. While aging does not modify the cascade condition, it slows down the cascade dynamics towards the full-adoption state: the exponential increase of adopters in time from the original model is replaced by a stretched exponential or power law, depending on the aging mechanism. Under several approximations, we give analytical expressions for the cascade condition and for the exponents of the adopters' density growth laws. Beyond random networks, we also describe by Monte Carlo simulations the effects of aging for the Threshold model in a two-dimensional lattice.

The distance backbone of directed networks

In weighted graphs the shortest path between two nodes is often reached through an indirect path, out of all possible connections, leading to structural redundancies which play key roles in the dynamics and evolution of complex networks. We have previously developed a parameter-free, algebraically-principled methodology to uncover such redundancy and reveal the distance backbone of weighted graphs, which has been shown to be important in transmission dynamics, inference of important paths, and quantifying the robustness of networks. However, the method was developed for undirected graphs. Here we expand this methodology to weighted directed graphs and study the redundancy and robustness found in nine networks ranging from social, biomedical, and technical systems. We found that similarly to undirected graphs, directed graphs in general also contain a large amount of redundancy, as measured by the size of their (directed) distance backbone. Our methodology adds an additional tool to the principled sparsification of complex networks and the measure of their robustness.

Dynamics of cold random hyperbolic graphs with link persistence

We consider and analyze a dynamic model of random hyperbolic graphs with link persistence. In the model, both connections and disconnections can be propagated from the current to the next snapshot with probability ω∈[0,1). Otherwise, with probability 1-ω, connections are reestablished according to the random hyperbolic graphs model. We show that while the persistence probability ω affects the averages of the contact and intercontact distributions, it does not affect the tails of these distributions, which decay as power laws with exponents that do not depend on ω. We also consider examples of real temporal networks, and we show that the considered model can adequately reproduce several of their dynamical properties. Our results advance our understanding of the realistic modeling of temporal networks and of the effects of link persistence on temporal network properties.

Effective submodularity of influence maximization on temporal networks

We study influence maximization on temporal networks. This is a special setting where the influence function is not submodular, and there is no optimality guarantee for solutions achieved via greedy optimization. We perform an exhaustive analysis on both real and synthetic networks. We show that the influence function of randomly sampled sets of seeds often violates the necessary conditions for submodularity. However, when sets of seeds are selected according to the greedy optimization strategy, the influence function behaves effectively as a submodular function. Specifically, violations of the necessary conditions for submodularity are never observed in real networks, and only rarely in synthetic ones. The direct comparison with exact solutions obtained via brute-force search indicates that the greedy strategy provides approximate solutions that are well within the optimality gap guaranteed for strictly submodular functions. Greedy optimization appears, therefore, to be an effective strategy for the maximization of influence on temporal networks.

Information evolution in complex networks

Many biological phenomena or social events critically depend on how information evolves in complex networks. However, a general theory to characterize information evolution is yet absent. Consequently, numerous unknowns remain about the mechanisms underlying information evolution. Among these unknowns, a fundamental problem, being a seeming paradox, lies in the coexistence of local randomness, manifested as the stochastic distortion of information content during individual-individual diffusion, and global regularity, illustrated by specific non-random patterns of information content on the network scale. Here, we attempt to formalize information evolution and explain the coexistence of randomness and regularity in complex networks. Applying network dynamics and information theory, we discover that a certain amount of information, determined by the selectivity of networks to the input information, frequently survives from random distortion. Other information will inevitably experience distortion or dissipation, whose speeds are shaped by the diversity of information selectivity in networks. The discovered laws exist irrespective of noise, but noise accounts for disturbing them. We further demonstrate the ubiquity of our discovered laws by analyzing the emergence of neural tuning properties in the primary visual and medial temporal cortices of animal brains and the emergence of extreme opinions in social networks.

Directed percolation in random temporal network models with heterogeneities

The event graph representation of temporal networks suggests that the connectivity of temporal structures can be mapped to a directed percolation problem. However, similarly to percolation theory on static networks, this mapping is valid under the approximation that the structure and interaction dynamics of the temporal network are determined by its local properties, and, otherwise, it is maximally random. We challenge these conditions and demonstrate the robustness of this mapping in case of more complicated systems. We systematically analyze random and regular network topologies and heterogeneous link-activation processes driven by bursty renewal or self-exciting processes using numerical simulation and finite-size scaling methods. We find that the critical percolation exponents characterizing the temporal network are not sensitive to many structural and dynamical network heterogeneities, while they recover known scaling exponents characterizing directed percolation on low-dimensional lattices. While it is not possible to demonstrate the validity of this mapping for all temporal network models, our results establish the first batch of evidence supporting the robustness of the scaling relationships in the limited-time reachability of temporal networks.

Transition from simple to complex contagion in collective decision-making

How does the spread of behavior affect consensus-based collective decision-making among animals, humans or swarming robots? In prior research, such propagation of behavior on social networks has been found to exhibit a transition from simple contagion—i.e, based on pairwise interactions—to a complex one—i.e., involving social influence and reinforcement. However, this rich phenomenology appears so far limited to threshold-based decision-making processes with binary options. Here, we show theoretically, and experimentally with a multi-robot system, that such a transition from simple to complex contagion can also be observed in an archetypal model of distributed decision-making devoid of any thresholds or nonlinearities. Specifically, we uncover two key results: the nature of the contagion—simple or complex—is tightly related to the intrinsic pace of the behavior that is spreading, and the network topology strongly influences the effectiveness of the behavioral transmission in ways that are reminiscent of threshold-based models. These results offer new directions for the empirical exploration of behavioral contagions in groups, and have significant ramifications for the design of cooperative and networked robot systems.

In consensus-based collective dynamics, the occurrence of simple and complex contagions shapes system behavior. The authors analyze a transition from simple to complex contagions in collective decision-making processes based on consensus, and demonstrate it with a swarm robotic system.

Non-Markovian temporal networks with auto- and cross-correlated link dynamics

Many of the biological, social and man-made networks around us are inherently dynamic, with their links switching on and off over time. The evolution of these networks is often observed to be non-Markovian, and the dynamics of their links are often correlated. Hence, to accurately model these networks, predict their evolution, and understand how information and other relevant quantities propagate over them, the inclusion of both memory and dynamical dependencies between links is key. In this article we introduce a general class of models of temporal networks based on discrete autoregressive processes for link dynamics. As a concrete and useful case study, we then concentrate on a specific model within this class, which allows to generate temporal networks with a specified underlying structural backbone, and with precise control over the dynamical dependencies between links and the strength and length of their memories. In this network model the presence of each link is influenced not only by its past activity, but also by the past activities of other links, as specified by a coupling matrix, which directly controls the causal relations, and hence the correlations, among links. We propose a maximum likelihood method for estimating the model's parameters from data, showing how the model allows a more realistic description of real-world temporal networks and also to predict their evolution. Due to the flexibility of maximum likelihood inference, we illustrate how to deal with heterogeneity and time-varying patterns, possibly including also nonstationary network dynamics. We then use our network model to investigate the role that, both the features of memory and the type of correlations in the dynamics of links have on the properties of processes occurring over a temporal network. Namely, we study the speed of a spreading process, as measured by the time it takes for diffusion to reach equilibrium. Through both numerical simulations and analytical results, we are able to separate the roles of autocorrelations and neighborhood correlations in link dynamics, showing that not only is the speed of diffusion nonmonotonically dependent on the memory length, but also that correlations among neighboring links help to speed up the spreading process, while autocorrelations slow it back down. Our results have implications in the study of opinion formation, the modeling of social networks, and the spreading of epidemics through mobile populations.

Network rewiring and plasticity promotes synchronization of suprachiasmatic nucleus neurons

In mammals, circadian rhythms throughout the body are orchestrated by the master clock in the hypothalamic suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), where SCN neurons are coupled with neurotransmitters to generate a uniform circadian rhythm. How the SCN circadian rhythm is so robust and flexible is, however, unclear. In this paper, we propose a temporal SCN network model and investigate the effects of dynamical rewiring and flexible coupling due to synaptic plasticity on the synchronization of the neural network in SCN. In networks consisting of simple Poincaré oscillators and complex circadian clocks, we found that dynamical rewiring and coupling plasticity enhance the synchronization in inhomogeneous networks. We verified the effect of enhanced synchronization in different architectures of random, scale-free, and small-world networks. A simple mean-field analysis for synchronization in plastic networks is proposed. Intuitively, the synchronization is greatly enhanced because both the random rewiring and coupling plasticity in the heterogeneous network have effectively increased the coupling strength in the whole network. Our results suggest that a proper network model for the master SCN circadian rhythm needs to take into account the effects of dynamical changes in topology and plasticity in neuron interactions that could help the brain to generate a robust circadian rhythm for the whole body.

The shape of memory in temporal networks

How to best define, detect and characterize network memory, i.e. the dependence of a network’s structure on its past, is currently a matter of debate. Here we show that the memory of a temporal network is inherently multidimensional, and we introduce a mathematical framework for defining and efficiently estimating the microscopic shape of memory, which characterises how the activity of each link intertwines with the activities of all other links. We validate our methodology on a range of synthetic models, and we then study the memory shape of real-world temporal networks spanning social, technological and biological systems, finding that these networks display heterogeneous memory shapes. In particular, online and offline social networks are markedly different, with the latter showing richer memory and memory scales. Our theory also elucidates the phenomenon of emergent virtual loops and provides a novel methodology for exploring the dynamically rich structure of complex systems.

The evolution of networks with structure changing in time is dependent on their past states and relevant to diffusion and spreading processes. The authors show that temporal network’s memory is described by multidimensional patterns at a microscopic scale, and cannot be reduced to a scalar quantity.

Mitigate SIR epidemic spreading via contact blocking in temporal networks

Progress has been made in how to suppress epidemic spreading on temporal networks via blocking all contacts of targeted nodes or node pairs. In this work, we develop contact blocking strategies that remove a fraction of contacts from a temporal (time evolving) human contact network to mitigate the spread of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic. We define the probability that a contact c(i, j, t) is removed as a function of a given centrality metric of the corresponding link l(i, j) in the aggregated network and the time t of the contact. The aggregated network captures the number of contacts between each node pair. A set of 12 link centrality metrics have been proposed and each centrality metric leads to a unique contact removal strategy. These strategies together with a baseline strategy (random removal) are evaluated in empirical contact networks via the average prevalence, the peak prevalence and the time to reach the peak prevalence. We find that the epidemic spreading can be mitigated the best when contacts between node pairs that have fewer contacts and early contacts are more likely to be removed. A strategy tends to perform better when the average number contacts removed from each node pair varies less. The aggregated pruned network resulted from the best contact removal strategy tends to have a large largest eigenvalue, a large modularity and probably a small largest connected component size.

Phase transition in the majority-vote model on time-varying networks

Social interactions may affect the update of individuals' opinions. The existing models such as the majority-vote (MV) model have been extensively studied in different static networks. However, in reality, social networks change over time and individuals interact dynamically. In this work, we study the behavior of the MV model on temporal networks to analyze the effects of temporality on opinion dynamics. In social networks, people are able to both actively send connections and passively receive connections, which leads to different effects on individuals' opinions. In order to compare the impact of different patterns of interactions on opinion dynamics, we simplify them into two processes, that is, the single directed (SD) process and the undirected (UD) process. The former only allows each individual to adopt an opinion by following the majority of actively interactive neighbors, while the latter allows each individual to flip opinion by following the majority of both actively interactive and passively interactive neighbors. By borrowing the activity-driven time-varying network with attractiveness (ADA model), the two opinion update processes, i.e., the SD and the UD processes, are related with the network evolution. With the mean-field approach, we derive the critical noise threshold for each process, which is also verified by numerical simulations. Compared with the SD process, the UD process reaches a larger consensus level below the same critical noise. Finally, we also verify the main results in real networks.

The network limits of infectious disease control via occupation-based targeting

Policymakers commonly employ non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the scale and severity of pandemics. Of non-pharmaceutical interventions, physical distancing policies-designed to reduce person-to-person pathogenic spread - have risen to recent prominence. In particular, stay-at-home policies of the sort widely implemented around the globe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have proven to be markedly effective at slowing pandemic growth. However, such blunt policy instruments, while effective, produce numerous unintended consequences, including potentially dramatic reductions in economic productivity. In this study, we develop methods to investigate the potential to simultaneously contain pandemic spread while also minimizing economic disruptions. We do so by incorporating both occupational and contact network information contained within an urban environment, information that is commonly excluded from typical pandemic control policy design. The results of our methods suggest that large gains in both economic productivity and pandemic control might be had by the incorporation and consideration of simple-to-measure characteristics of the occupational contact network. We find evidence that more sophisticated, and more privacy invasive, measures of this network do not drastically increase performance.

From temporal network data to the dynamics of social relationships

Networks are well-established representations of social systems, and temporal networks are widely used to study their dynamics. However, going from temporal network data (i.e. a stream of interactions between individuals) to a representation of the social group's evolution remains a challenge. Indeed, the temporal network at any specific time contains only the interactions taking place at that time and aggregating on successive time-windows also has important limitations. Here, we present a new framework to study the dynamic evolution of social networks based on the idea that social relationships are interdependent: as the time we can invest in social relationships is limited, reinforcing a relationship with someone is done at the expense of our relationships with others. We implement this interdependence in a parsimonious two-parameter model and apply it to several human and non-human primates' datasets to demonstrate that this model detects even small and short perturbations of the networks that cannot be detected using the standard technique of successive aggregated networks. Our model solves a long-standing problem by providing a simple and natural way to describe the dynamic evolution of social networks, with far-reaching consequences for the study of social networks and social evolution.

Burstiness and Stochasticity in the Malleability of Physical Activity

This study examined whether patterns of self-organization in physical activity (PA) predicted long-term success in a yearlong PA intervention. Increased moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA) was targeted in insufficiently active adults (N = 512) via goal setting and financial reinforcement. The degree to which inverse power law distributions, which are reflective of self-organization, summarized (a) daily MVPA and (b) time elapsed between meeting daily goals (goal attainment interresponse times) was calculated. Goal attainment interresponse times were also used to calculate burstiness, the degree to which meeting daily goals clustered in time. Inverse power laws accurately summarized interresponse times, but not daily MVPA. For participants with higher levels of MVPA early in the study, burstiness in reaching goals was associated with long-term resistance to intervention, while stochasticity in meeting goals predicted receptiveness to intervention. These results suggest that burstiness may measure self-organizing resistance to change, while PA stochasticity could be a precondition for behavioral malleability.

Individual-driven versus interaction-driven burstiness in human dynamics: The case of Wikipedia edit history

The origin of non-Poissonian or bursty temporal patterns observed in various data sets for human social dynamics has been extensively studied, yet its understanding still remains incomplete. Considering the fact that humans are social beings, a fundamental question arises: Is the bursty human dynamics dominated by individual characteristics or by interaction between individuals? In this paper we address this question by analyzing the Wikipedia edit history to see how spontaneous individual editors are in initiating bursty periods of editing, i.e., individual-driven burstiness, and to what extent such editors' behaviors are driven by interaction with other editors in those periods, i.e., interaction-driven burstiness. We quantify the degree of initiative (DoI) of an editor of interest in each Wikipedia article by using the statistics of bursty periods containing the editor's edits. The integrated value of the DoI over all relevant timescales reveals which is dominant between individual-driven and interaction-driven burstiness. We empirically find that this value tends to be larger for weaker temporal correlations in the editor's editing behavior and/or stronger editorial correlations. These empirical findings are successfully confirmed by deriving an analytic form of the DoI from a model capturing the essential features of the edit sequence. Thus our approach provides a deeper insight into the origin and underlying mechanisms of bursts in human social dynamics.

Self-initiated behavioral change and disease resurgence on activity-driven networks

We consider a population that experienced a first wave of infections, interrupted by strong, top-down, governmental restrictions and did not develop a significant immunity to prevent a second wave (i.e., resurgence). As restrictions are lifted, individuals adapt their social behavior to minimize the risk of infection. We explore two scenarios. In the first, individuals reduce their overall social activity towards the rest of the population. In the second scenario, they maintain normal social activity within a small community of peers (i.e., social bubble) while reducing social interactions with the rest of the population. In both cases, we investigate possible correlations between social activity and behavior change, reflecting, for example, the social dimension of certain occupations. We model these scenarios considering a susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model unfolding on activity-driven networks. Extensive analytical and numerical results show that (i) a minority of very active individuals not changing behavior may nullify the efforts of the large majority of the population and (ii) imperfect social bubbles of normal social activity may be less effective than an overall reduction of social interactions.

Social distancing in pedestrian dynamics and its effect on disease spreading

Nonpharmaceutical measures such as social distancing can play an important role in controlling the spread of an epidemic. In this paper, we use a mathematical model combining human mobility and disease spreading. For the mobility dynamics, we design an agent-based model consisting of pedestrian dynamics with a novel type of force to resemble social distancing in crowded sites. For the spreading dynamics, we consider the compartmental susceptible-exposed-infective (SEI) dynamics plus an indirect transmission with the footprints of the infectious pedestrians being the contagion factor. We show that the increase in the intensity of social distancing has a significant effect on the exposure risk. By classifying the population into social distancing abiders and nonabiders, we conclude that the practice of social distancing, even by a minority of potentially infectious agents, results in a drastic change in the population exposure risk, but it reduces the effectiveness of the protocols when practiced by the rest of the population. Furthermore, we observe that for contagions for which the indirect transmission is more significant, the effectiveness of social distancing would be reduced. This study can help to provide a quantitative guideline for policy-making on exposure risk reduction.

Hive geometry shapes the recruitment rate of honeybee colonies

Honey bees make decisions regarding foraging and nest-site selection in groups ranging from hundreds to thousands of individuals. To effectively make these decisions, bees need to communicate within a spatially distributed group. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of honey bee communication have been mostly overlooked in models of collective decisions, focusing primarily on mean field models of opinion dynamics. We analyze how the spatial properties of the nest or hive, and the movement of individuals with different belief states (uncommitted or committed) therein affect the rate of information transmission using spatially-extended models of collective decision-making within a hive. Honeybees waggle-dance to recruit conspecifics with an intensity that is a threshold nonlinear function of the waggler concentration. Our models range from treating the hive as a chain of discrete patches to a continuous line (long narrow hive). The combination of population-thresholded recruitment and compartmentalized populations generates tradeoffs between rapid information propagation with strong population dispersal and recruitment failures resulting from excessive population diffusion and also creates an effective colony-level signal-detection mechanism whereby recruitment to low quality objectives is blocked.

Impact of temporal correlations on high risk outbreaks of independent and cooperative SIR dynamics

We first propose a quantitative approach to detect high risk outbreaks of independent and coinfective SIR dynamics on three empirical networks: a school, a conference and a hospital contact network. This measurement is based on the k-means clustering method and identifies proper samples for calculating the mean outbreak size and the outbreak probability. Then we systematically study the impact of different temporal correlations on high risk outbreaks over the original and differently shuffled counterparts of each network. We observe that, on the one hand, in the coinfection process, randomization of the sequence of the events increases the mean outbreak size of high-risk cases. On the other hand, these correlations do not have a consistent effect on the independent infection dynamics, and can either decrease or increase this mean. Randomization of the daily pattern correlations has no strong impact on the size of the outbreak in either the coinfection or the independent spreading cases. We also observe that an increase in the mean outbreak size does not always coincide with an increase in the outbreak probability; therefore, we argue that merely considering the mean outbreak size of all realizations may lead us into falsely estimating the outbreak risks. Our results suggest that some sort of contact randomization in the organizational level in schools, events or hospitals might help to suppress the spreading dynamics while the risk of an outbreak is high.

Mechanisms of the Effects of Parental Emotional Warmth on Extraversion in Children and Adolescents

The purpose of this study is to probe into the influence mechanism of parental emotional warmth (PEW) on extraversion for children and adolescents, as well as the moderating and mediating role of brain functional activity. Thirty-two children and adolescents underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans and completed Egna Minnen av Barndoms Uppfostran (EMBU) and Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ). Small-worldness (SW) of brain networks, fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF), and region-of-interest to region-of-interest (ROI-ROI) functional connectivity were calculated to study intrinsic neuronal activity. We found that PEW had a positive direct effect on extraversion, and all participants in the current study showed an efficient small-world structure. The positive association between PEW and extraversion was mediated by SW. Furthermore, the fALFF and extraversion were significantly and negatively correlated in the right precuneus and dorsolateral superior frontal gyrus. The mediating effect of SW was moderated by the functional connectivity between the right precuneus and the right dorsolateral superior frontal gyrus. The indirect effect was significant with lower level of the functional connectivity between the right precuneus and the right dorsolateral superior frontal gyrus. These findings indicate that SW of brain networks may be a key factor that accounts for the positive association between PEW and extraversion in children and adolescents and the level of the functional connectivity between the right precuneus and the right dorsolateral superior frontal gyrus could moderate the relationship.

Increasing efficacy of contact-tracing applications by user referrals and stricter quarantining

We study the effects of two mechanisms which increase the efficacy of contact-tracing applications (CTAs) such as the mobile phone contact-tracing applications that have been used during the COVID-19 epidemic. The first mechanism is the introduction of user referrals. We compare four scenarios for the uptake of CTAs-(1) the p% of individuals that use the CTA are chosen randomly, (2) a smaller initial set of randomly-chosen users each refer a contact to use the CTA, achieving p% in total, (3) a small initial set of randomly-chosen users each refer around half of their contacts to use the CTA, achieving p% in total, and (4) for comparison, an idealised scenario in which the p% of the population that uses the CTA is the p% with the most contacts. Using agent-based epidemiological models incorporating a geometric space, we find that, even when the uptake percentage p% is small, CTAs are an effective tool for mitigating the spread of the epidemic in all scenarios. Moreover, user referrals significantly improve efficacy. In addition, it turns out that user referrals reduce the quarantine load. The second mechanism for increasing the efficacy of CTAs is tuning the severity of quarantine measures. Our modelling shows that using CTAs with mild quarantine measures is effective in reducing the maximum hospital load and the number of people who become ill, but leads to a relatively high quarantine load, which may cause economic disruption. Fortunately, under stricter quarantine measures, the advantages are maintained but the quarantine load is reduced. Our models incorporate geometric inhomogeneous random graphs to study the effects of the presence of super-spreaders and of the absence of long-distant contacts (e.g., through travel restrictions) on our conclusions.

Impact of environmental changes on the dynamics of temporal networks

Dynamics of complex social systems has often been described in the framework of temporal networks, where links are considered to exist only at the moment of interaction between nodes. Such interaction patterns are not only driven by internal interaction mechanisms, but also affected by environmental changes. To investigate the impact of the environmental changes on the dynamics of temporal networks, we analyze several face-to-face interaction datasets using the multiscale entropy (MSE) method to find that the observed temporal correlations can be categorized according to the environmental similarity of datasets such as classes and break times in schools. By devising and studying a temporal network model considering a periodically changing environment as well as a preferential activation mechanism, we numerically show that our model could successfully reproduce various empirical results by the MSE method in terms of multiscale temporal correlations. Our results demonstrate that the environmental changes can play an important role in shaping the dynamics of temporal networks when the interactions between nodes are influenced by the environment of the systems.

Preferential model for the evolution of pass networks in ball sports

We propose a theoretical model to evaluate the temporally evolving ball-passing networks whose number of edges increases with time. The model incorporates a preferential selection of edges that chooses an edge based on its frequency of selection. The results are in good agreement with the corresponding ball-passing networks of association football, basketball, and rugby matches, and they enable a quantitative comparison of the passing activity among different teams or ball sports.

Temporal properties of higher-order interactions in social networks

Human social interactions in local settings can be experimentally detected by recording the physical proximity and orientation of people. Such interactions, approximating face-to-face communications, can be effectively represented as time varying social networks with links being unceasingly created and destroyed over time. Traditional analyses of temporal networks have addressed mostly pairwise interactions, where links describe dyadic connections among individuals. However, many network dynamics are hardly ascribable to pairwise settings but often comprise larger groups, which are better described by higher-order interactions. Here we investigate the higher-order organizations of temporal social networks by analyzing five publicly available datasets collected in different social settings. We find that higher-order interactions are ubiquitous and, similarly to their pairwise counterparts, characterized by heterogeneous dynamics, with bursty trains of rapidly recurring higher-order events separated by long periods of inactivity. We investigate the evolution and formation of groups by looking at the transition rates between different higher-order structures. We find that in more spontaneous social settings, group are characterized by slower formation and disaggregation, while in work settings these phenomena are more abrupt, possibly reflecting pre-organized social dynamics. Finally, we observe temporal reinforcement suggesting that the longer a group stays together the higher the probability that the same interaction pattern persist in the future. Our findings suggest the importance of considering the higher-order structure of social interactions when investigating human temporal dynamics.

The switching mechanisms of social network densification

Densification and sparsification of social networks are attributed to two fundamental mechanisms: a change in the population in the system, and/or a change in the chances that people in the system are connected. In theory, each of these mechanisms generates a distinctive type of densification scaling, but in reality both types are generally mixed. Here, we develop a Bayesian statistical method to identify the extent to which each of these mechanisms is at play at a given point in time, taking the mixed densification scaling as input. We apply the method to networks of face-to-face interactions of individuals and reveal that the main mechanism that causes densification and sparsification occasionally switches, the frequency of which depending on the social context. The proposed method uncovers an inherent regime-switching property of network dynamics, which will provide a new insight into the mechanics behind evolving social interactions.

Non-Markovian majority-vote model

Non-Markovian dynamics pervades human activity and social networks and it induces memory effects and burstiness in a wide range of processes including interevent time distributions, duration of interactions in temporal networks, and human mobility. Here, we propose a non-Markovian majority-vote model (NMMV) that introduces non-Markovian effects in the standard (Markovian) majority-vote model (SMV). The SMV model is one of the simplest two-state stochastic models for studying opinion dynamics, and displays a continuous order-disorder phase transition at a critical noise. In the NMMV model we assume that the probability that an agent changes state is not only dependent on the majority state of his neighbors but it also depends on his age, i.e., how long the agent has been in his current state. The NMMV model has two regimes: the aging regime implies that the probability that an agent changes state is decreasing with his age, while in the antiaging regime the probability that an agent changes state is increasing with his age. Interestingly, we find that the critical noise at which we observe the order-disorder phase transition is a nonmonotonic function of the rate β of the aging (antiaging) process. In particular the critical noise in the aging regime displays a maximum as a function of β while in the antiaging regime displays a minimum. This implies that the aging/antiaging dynamics can retard/anticipate the transition and that there is an optimal rate β for maximally perturbing the value of the critical noise. The analytical results obtained in the framework of the heterogeneous mean-field approach are validated by extensive numerical simulations on a large variety of network topologies.

Dynamics of cascades on burstiness-controlled temporal networks

Burstiness, the tendency of interaction events to be heterogeneously distributed in time, is critical to information diffusion in physical and social systems. However, an analytical framework capturing the effect of burstiness on generic dynamics is lacking. Here we develop a master equation formalism to study cascades on temporal networks with burstiness modelled by renewal processes. Supported by numerical and data-driven simulations, we describe the interplay between heterogeneous temporal interactions and models of threshold-driven and epidemic spreading. We find that increasing interevent time variance can both accelerate and decelerate spreading for threshold models, but can only decelerate epidemic spreading. When accounting for the skewness of different interevent time distributions, spreading times collapse onto a universal curve. Our framework uncovers a deep yet subtle connection between generic diffusion mechanisms and underlying temporal network structures that impacts a broad class of networked phenomena, from spin interactions to epidemic contagion and language dynamics.

Topology Results on Adjacent Amino Acid Networks of Oligomeric Proteins

In this chapter, we focus on topology measurements of the adjacent amino acid networks for a data set of oligomeric proteins and some of its subnetworks. The aim is to present many mathematical tools in order to understand the structures of proteins implicitly coded in such networks and subnetworks. We mainly investigate four important networks by computing the number of connected components, the degree distribution, and assortativity measures. We compare each result in order to prove that the four networks have quite independent topologies.

Stay with your community: Bridges between clusters trigger expansion of COVID-19

In this study, the spread of virus infection was simulated using artificial human networks. Here, real-space urban life was modeled as a modified scale-free network with constraints. To date, the scale-free network has been adopted for modeling online communities in several studies. However, in the present study, it has been modified to represent the social behaviors of people where the generated communities are restricted and reflect spatiotemporal constraints in real life. Furthermore, the networks have been extended by introducing multiple cliques in the initial step of network construction and enabling people to contact hidden (zero-degree) as well as popular (large-degree) people. Consequently, four findings and a policy proposal were obtained. First, "second waves" were observed in some cases of the simulations even without external influence or constraints on people's social contacts or the releasing of the constraints. These waves tend to be lower than the first wave and occur in "fresh" clusters, that is, via the infection of people who are connected in the network but have not been infected previously. This implies that the bridge between infected and fresh clusters may trigger a new spread of the virus. Second, if the network changes its structure on the way of infection spread or after its suppression, a second wave larger than the first can occur. Third, the peak height in the time series of the number of infected cases depends on the difference between the upper bound of the number of people each member actually meets and the number of people they choose to meet during the period of infection spread. This tendency is observed for the two kinds of artificial networks introduced here and implies the impact of bridges between communities on the virus spreading. Fourth, the release of a previously imposed constraint may trigger a second wave higher than the peak of the time series without introducing any constraint so far previously, if the release is introduced at a time close to the peak. Thus, overall, both the government and individuals should be careful in returning to society where people enjoy free inter-community contact.

Influence maximization on temporal networks

We consider the optimization problem of seeding a spreading process on a temporal network so that the expected size of the resulting outbreak is maximized. We frame the problem for a spreading process following the rules of the susceptible-infected-recovered model with temporal scale equal to the one characterizing the evolution of the network topology. We perform a systematic analysis based on a corpus of 12 real-world temporal networks and quantify the performance of solutions to the influence maximization problem obtained using different level of information about network topology and dynamics. We find that having perfect knowledge of the network topology but in a static and/or aggregated form is not helpful in solving the influence maximization problem effectively. Knowledge, even if partial, of the early stages of the network dynamics appears instead essential for the identification of quasioptimal sets of influential spreaders.

Autonomy promotes the evolution of cooperation in prisoner's dilemma

Population structure has been widely reported to foster cooperation in spatially structured populations, where individuals interact with all of their network neighbors defined by the spatial structure in each generation. However, most results rely on the assumption that individuals strictly interact with all of their neighbors during evolution. In reality, human beings, with sophisticated psychology, are willing to interact with some of their neighbors from time to time. Thus, individuals may not play games with all neighbors due to their psychological factors. Here we investigate how the autonomy, one of the basic psychological needs, affects the fate of cooperators in various social networks. By constructing a dynamical effective network, we find that the introduction of autonomy favors cooperative behavior. Further systematical studies by eliminating heterogeneity and the dynamic characteristics of the network reveal that autonomy plays a pivotal role in the evolution of cooperation. Moreover, we find that a moderate effective network degree, defined by the product of the original network degree and the level of autonomy, maximizes the cooperation on networks connecting individuals with fixed neighbors. Our results offer a possible way for organizations to improve individuals' cooperation and shed light on the importance of individuals' psychology on the evolution of cooperation.

Topological Determinants of Perturbation Spreading in Networks

Spreading phenomena essentially underlie the dynamics of various natural and technological networked systems, yet how spatiotemporal propagation patterns emerge from such networks remains largely unknown. Here we propose a novel approach that reveals universal features determining the spreading dynamics in diffusively coupled networks and disentangles them from factors that are system specific. In particular, we first analytically identify a purely topological factor encoding the interaction structure and strength, and second, numerically estimate a master function characterizing the universal scaling of the perturbation arrival times across topologically different networks. The proposed approach thereby provides intuitive insights into complex propagation patterns as well as accurate predictions for the perturbation arrival times. The approach readily generalizes to a wide range of networked systems with diffusive couplings and may contribute to assess the risks of transient influences of ubiquitous perturbations in real-world systems.

Simulation-free estimation of an individual-based SEIR model for evaluating nonpharmaceutical interventions with an application to COVID-19 in the District of Columbia

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmingly demonstrated the need to accurately evaluate the effects of implementing new or altering existing nonpharmaceutical interventions. Since these interventions applied at the societal level cannot be evaluated through traditional experimental means, public health officials and other decision makers must rely on statistical and mathematical epidemiological models. Nonpharmaceutical interventions are typically focused on contacts between members of a population, and yet most epidemiological models rely on homogeneous mixing which has repeatedly been shown to be an unrealistic representation of contact patterns. An alternative approach is individual based models (IBMs), but these are often time intensive and computationally expensive to implement, requiring a high degree of expertise and computational resources. More often, decision makers need to know the effects of potential public policy decisions in a very short time window using limited resources. This paper presents a computation algorithm for an IBM designed to evaluate nonpharmaceutical interventions. By utilizing recursive relationships, our method can quickly compute the expected epidemiological outcomes even for large populations based on any arbitrary contact network. We utilize our methods to evaluate the effects of various mitigation measures in the District of Columbia, USA, at various times and to various degrees. Rcode for our method is provided in the supplementry material, thereby allowing others to utilize our approach for other regions.

Generative models of simultaneously heavy-tailed distributions of interevent times on nodes and edges

Intervals between discrete events representing human activities, as well as other types of events, often obey heavy-tailed distributions, and their impacts on collective dynamics on networks such as contagion processes have been intensively studied. The literature supports that such heavy-tailed distributions are present for interevent times associated with both individual nodes and individual edges in networks. However, the simultaneous presence of heavy-tailed distributions of interevent times for nodes and edges is a nontrivial phenomenon, and its origin has been elusive. In the present study, we propose a generative model and its variants to explain this phenomenon. We assume that each node independently transits between a high-activity and low-activity state according to a continuous-time two-state Markov process and that, for the main model, events on an edge occur at a high rate if and only if both end nodes of the edge are in the high-activity state. In other words, two nodes interact frequently only when both nodes prefer to interact with others. The model produces distributions of interevent times for both individual nodes and edges that resemble heavy-tailed distributions across some scales. It also produces positive correlation in consecutive interevent times, which is another stylized observation for empirical data of human activity. We expect that our modeling framework provides a useful benchmark for investigating dynamics on temporal networks driven by non-Poissonian event sequences.

Network modularity controls the speed of information diffusion

The rapid diffusion of information and the adoption of social behaviors are of critical importance in situations as diverse as collective actions, pandemic prevention, or advertising and marketing. Although the dynamics of large cascades have been extensively studied in various contexts, few have systematically examined the impact of network topology on the efficiency of information diffusion. Here, by employing the linear threshold model on networks with communities, we demonstrate that a prominent network feature-the modular structure-strongly affects the speed of information diffusion in complex contagion. Our simulations show that there always exists an optimal network modularity for the most efficient spreading process. Beyond this critical value, either a stronger or a weaker modular structure actually hinders the diffusion speed. These results are confirmed by an analytical approximation. We further demonstrate that the optimal modularity varies with both the seed size and the target cascade size and is ultimately dependent on the network under investigation. We underscore the importance of our findings in applications from marketing to epidemiology, from neuroscience to engineering, where the understanding of the structural design of complex systems focuses on the efficiency of information propagation.

Topological epidemic model: Theoretical insight into underlying networks

Although there are various models of epidemic diseases, there are a few individual-based models that can guide susceptible individuals on how they should behave in a pandemic without its appropriate treatment. Such a model would be ideal for the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Thus, here, we propose a topological model of an epidemic disease, which can take into account various types of interventions through a time-dependent contact network. Based on this model, we show that there is a maximum allowed number of persons one can see each day for each person so that we can suppress the epidemic spread. Reducing the number of persons to see for the hub persons is a key countermeasure for the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Not all interventions are equal for the height of the second peak

In this paper we conduct a simulation study of the spread of an epidemic like COVID-19 with temporary immunity on finite spatial and non-spatial network models. In particular, we assume that an epidemic spreads stochastically on a scale-free network and that each infected individual in the network gains a temporary immunity after its infectious period is over. After the temporary immunity period is over, the individual becomes susceptible to the virus again. When the underlying contact network is embedded in Euclidean geometry, we model three different intervention strategies that aim to control the spread of the epidemic: social distancing, restrictions on travel, and restrictions on maximal number of social contacts per node. Our first finding is that on a finite network, a long enough average immunity period leads to extinction of the pandemic after the first peak, analogous to the concept of "herd immunity". For each model, there is a critical average immunity duration L_c above which this happens. Our second finding is that all three interventions manage to flatten the first peak (the travel restrictions most efficiently), as well as decrease the critical immunity duration L_c , but elongate the epidemic. However, when the average immunity duration L is shorter than L_c , the price for the flattened first peak is often a high second peak: for limiting the maximal number of contacts, the second peak can be as high as 1/3 of the first peak, and twice as high as it would be without intervention. Thirdly, interventions introduce oscillations into the system and the time to reach equilibrium is, for almost all scenarios, much longer. We conclude that network-based epidemic models can show a variety of behaviors that are not captured by the continuous compartmental models.

Disease spreading with social distancing: A prevention strategy in disordered multiplex networks

The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and strategies to prevent or mitigate their effects in populations. Since isolated systems are exceptionally rare to find in any context, especially in human contact networks, here we examine the susceptible-infected-recovered model of disease spreading in a multiplex network formed by two distinct networks or layers, interconnected through a fraction q of shared individuals (overlap). We model the interactions through weighted networks, because person-to-person interactions are diverse (or disordered); weights represent the contact times of the interactions. Using branching theory supported by simulations, we analyze a social distancing strategy that reduces the average contact time in both layers, where the intensity of the distancing is related to the topology of the layers. We find that the critical values of the distancing intensities, above which an epidemic can be prevented, increase with the overlap q. Also we study the effect of the social distancing on the mutual giant component of susceptible individuals, which is crucial to keep the functionality of the system. In addition, we find that for relatively small values of the overlap q, social distancing policies might not be needed at all to maintain the functionality of the system.

Circadian rhythms in temporal-network connectivity

Human activity follows a circadian rhythm. In online activity, this rhythm is visible both at the level of individuals as well as at the population level from Wikipedia edits to mobile telephone calls. However, much less is known about circadian patterns at the level of network structure, that is, beyond the day-night cycle of the frequency of activity. Here, we study how the temporal connectivity of communication networks changes through the day, focusing on sequences of communication events that follow one another within a limited time. Such sequences can be thought to be characteristic of information transfer in the network. We find that temporal connectivity also follows a circadian rhythm, where at night a larger fraction of contacts is associated with such sequences and where contacts appear more independent at daytime. This result points out that temporal networks show richer variation in time than what has been known thus far.