Behavior of susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered epidemics with diversity in the infection rate of individuals

A novel SVIR epidemic model with jumps for understanding the dynamics of the spread of dual diseases

The emergence of multi-disease epidemics presents an escalating threat to global health. In response to this serious challenge, we present an innovative stochastic susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered epidemic model that addresses the dynamics of two diseases alongside intricate vaccination strategies. Our novel model undergoes a comprehensive exploration through both theoretical and numerical analyses. The stopping time concept, along with appropriate Lyapunov functions, allows us to explore the possibility of a globally positive solution. Through the derivation of reproduction numbers associated with the stochastic model, we establish criteria for the potential extinction of the diseases. The conditions under which one or both diseases may persist are explained. In the numerical aspect, we derive a computational scheme based on the Milstein method. The scheme will not only substantiate the theoretical results but also facilitate the examination of the impact of parameters on disease dynamics. Through examples and simulations, we have a crucial impact of varying parameters on the system's behavior.

Optimizing protection resource allocation for traffic-driven epidemic spreading

Optimizing the allocation of protection resources to control the spreading process in networks is a central problem in public health and network security. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive adjustable resource allocation mechanism in which the over allocation of resources can be also numerically reflected and study the effects of this mechanism on traffic-driven epidemic spreading. We observe that an inappropriate resource allocation scheme can induce epidemic spreading, while an optimized heterogeneous resource allocation scheme can significantly suppress the outbreak of the epidemic. The phenomenon can be explained by the role of nodes induced by the heterogeneous network structure and traffic flow distribution. Theoretical analysis also gives an exact solution to the epidemic threshold and reveals the optimal allocation scheme. Compared to the uniform allocation scheme, the increase in traffic flow will aggravate the decline of the epidemic threshold for the heterogeneous resource allocation scheme. This indicates that the uneven resource allocation makes the network performance of suppressing epidemic degrade with the traffic load level. Finally, it is demonstrated that real-world network topology also confirms the results.

Analytical solution of epidemic threshold for coupled information-epidemic dynamics on multiplex networks with alterable heterogeneity

The phase transition of epidemic spreading model on networks is one of the most important concerns of physicists to theoretical epidemiology. In this paper, we present an analytical expression of epidemic threshold for interplay between epidemic spreading and human behavior on multiplex networks. The threshold formula proposed in this paper reveals the relation between the threshold on single-layer networks and that on multiplex networks, which means that the theoretical conclusions of single-layer networks can be used to improve the threshold accuracy of multiplex networks. To verify how well our formula works in different networks, we build a network model with constant total number of edges but gradually changing the heterogeneity of the network, from scale-free network to Erdős-Rényi random network. By use of theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we find that the heterogeneity of information layer behaves as a "double-edged sword" on the epidemic threshold: The strong heterogeneity can effectively improve the epidemic threshold (which means the disease outbreak requires a higher infection probability) when the awareness probability α is low, while the opposite effect takes place for high α. Meanwhile, the weak heterogeneity of the information layer is effective in suppressing the epidemic prevalence when the awareness probability is neither too high nor too low.

A SIRD epidemic model with community structure

The study of epidemics spreading with community structure has become a hot topic. The classic SIR epidemic model does not distinguish between dead and recovered individuals. It is inappropriate to classify dead individuals as recovered individuals because the real-world epidemic spread processes show different recovery rates and death rates in different communities. In the present work, a SIRD epidemic model with different recovery rates is proposed. We pay more attention to the changes in the number of dead individuals. The basic reproductive number is obtained. The stationary solutions of a disease-free state and an endemic state are given. We show that quarantining communities can decrease the basic reproductive number, and the total number of dead individuals decreases in a disease-free steady state with an increase in the number of quarantined communities. The most effective quarantining strategy is to preferentially quarantine some communities/cities with a greater population size and a fraction of initially infected individuals. Furthermore, we show that the population flows from a low recovery rate and high population density community/city/country to some high recovery rate and low population density communities/cities/countries, which helps to reduce the total number of dead individuals and prevent the prevalence of epidemics. The numerical simulations on the real-world network and the synthetic network further support our conclusions.

The impact of behavioral change on the epidemic under the benefit comparison

Human behavior has a major impact on the spread of the disease during an epidemic. At the same time, the spread of disease has an impact on human behavior. In this paper, we propose a coupled model of human behavior and disease transmission, take into account both individual-based risk assessment and neighbor-based replicator dynamics. The transmission threshold of epidemic disease and the stability of disease-free equilibrium point are analyzed. Some numerical simulations are carried out for the system. Three kinds of return matrices are considered and analyzed one by one. The simulation results show that the change of human behavior can effectively inhibit the spread of the disease, individual-based risk assessments had a stronger effect on disease suppression, but also more hitchhikers. This work contributes to the study of the relationship between human behavior and disease epidemics.

Temporal Gillespie Algorithm: Fast Simulation of Contagion Processes on Time-Varying Networks

Stochastic simulations are one of the cornerstones of the analysis of dynamical processes on complex networks, and are often the only accessible way to explore their behavior. The development of fast algorithms is paramount to allow large-scale simulations. The Gillespie algorithm can be used for fast simulation of stochastic processes, and variants of it have been applied to simulate dynamical processes on static networks. However, its adaptation to temporal networks remains non-trivial. We here present a temporal Gillespie algorithm that solves this problem. Our method is applicable to general Poisson (constant-rate) processes on temporal networks, stochastically exact, and up to multiple orders of magnitude faster than traditional simulation schemes based on rejection sampling. We also show how it can be extended to simulate non-Markovian processes. The algorithm is easily applicable in practice, and as an illustration we detail how to simulate both Poissonian and non-Markovian models of epidemic spreading. Namely, we provide pseudocode and its implementation in C++ for simulating the paradigmatic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered models and a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model with non-constant recovery rates. For empirical networks, the temporal Gillespie algorithm is here typically from 10 to 100 times faster than rejection sampling.

When studying how e.g. diseases spread in a population, intermittent contacts taking place between individuals—through which the infection spreads—are best described by a time-varying network. This object captures both their complex structure and dynamics, which crucially affect spreading in the population. The dynamical process in question is then usually studied by simulating it on the time-varying network representing the population. Such simulations are usually time-consuming, especially when they require exploration of different parameter values. We here show how to adapt an algorithm originally proposed in 1976 to simulate chemical reactions—the Gillespie algorithm—to speed up such simulations. Instead of checking at each time-step if each possible reaction takes place, as traditional rejection sampling algorithms do, the Gillespie algorithm determines what reaction takes place next and at what time. This offers a substantial speed gain by doing away with the many rejected trials of the traditional methods, with the added benefit of giving stochastically exact results. In practice this new temporal Gillespie algorithm is tens to hundreds of times faster than the current state-of-the-art, opening up for thorough characterization of spreading phenomena and fast large-scale applications such as the simulation of city- or world-wide epidemics.

Effective degree Markov-chain approach for discrete-time epidemic processes on uncorrelated networks

Recently, Gómez et al. proposed a microscopic Markov-chain approach (MMCA) [S. Gómez, J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Y. Moreno, and A. Arenas, Phys. Rev. E 84, 036105 (2011)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.84.036105] to the discrete-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process and found that the epidemic prevalence obtained by this approach agrees well with that by simulations. However, we found that the approach cannot be straightforwardly extended to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process (due to its irreversible property), and the epidemic prevalences obtained by MMCA and Monte Carlo simulations do not match well when the infection probability is just slightly above the epidemic threshold. In this contribution we extend the effective degree Markov-chain approach, proposed for analyzing continuous-time epidemic processes [J. Lindquist, J. Ma, P. Driessche, and F. Willeboordse, J. Math. Biol. 62, 143 (2011)JMBLAJ0303-681210.1007/s00285-010-0331-2], to address discrete-time binary-state (SIS) or three-state (SIR) epidemic processes on uncorrelated complex networks. It is shown that the final epidemic size as well as the time series of infected individuals obtained from this approach agree very well with those by Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are robust to the change of different parameters, including the total population size, the infection probability, the recovery probability, the average degree, and the degree distribution of the underlying networks.

Effect of vaccination strategies on the dynamic behavior of epidemic spreading and vaccine coverage

The transmission of infectious, yet vaccine-preventable, diseases is a typical complex social phenomenon, where the increasing level of vaccine update in the population helps to inhibit the epidemic spreading, which in turn, however, discourages more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, due to the "externality effect" raised by vaccination. We herein study the impact of vaccination strategies, pure, continuous (rather than adopt vaccination definitely, the individuals choose to taking vaccine with some probabilities), or continuous with randomly mutation, on the vaccination dynamics with a spatial susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered (SVIR) epidemiological model. By means of extensive Monte-Carlo simulations, we show that there is a crossover behavior of the final vaccine coverage between the pure-strategy case and the continuous-strategy case, and remarkably, both the final vaccination level and epidemic size in the continuous-strategy case are less than them in the pure-strategy case when vaccination is cheap. We explain this phenomenon by analyzing the organization process of the individuals in the continuous-strategy case in the equilibrium. Our results are robust to the SVIR dynamics defined on other spatial networks, like the Erdős-Rényi and Barabási-Albert networks.