Dynamics of social contagions with memory of nonredundant information

Bridge synergy and simplicial interaction in complex contagions

Modeling complex contagion in networked systems is an important topic in network science, for which various models have been proposed, including the synergistic contagion model that incorporates coherent interference and the simplicial contagion model that involves high-order interactions. Although both models have demonstrated success in investigating complex contagions, their relationship in modeling complex contagions remains unclear. In this study, we compare the synergy and the simplest form of high-order interaction in the simplicial contagion model, known as the triangular one. We analytically show that the triangular interaction and the synergy can be bridged within complex contagions through the joint degree distribution of the network. Monte Carlo simulations are then conducted to compare simplicial and corresponding synergistic contagions on synthetic and real-world networks, the results of which highlight the consistency of these two different contagion processes and thus validate our analysis. Our study sheds light on the deep relationship between the synergy and high-order interactions and enhances our physical understanding of complex contagions in networked systems.

Analysis of Influence of Behavioral Adoption Threshold Diversity on Multi-Layer Network

The same people exhibit various adoption behaviors for the same information on various networks. Previous studies, however, did not examine the variety of adoption behaviors on multi-layer networks or take into consideration this phenomenon. Therefore, we refer to this phenomenon, which lacks systematic analysis and investigation, as behavioral adoption diversity on multi-layered networks. Meanwhile, individual adoption behaviors have LTI (local trend imitation) characteristics that help spread information. In order to study the diverse LTI behaviors on information propagation, a two-layer network model is presented. Following that, we provide two adoption threshold functions to describe diverse LTI behaviors. The crossover phenomena in the phase transition is shown to exist through theoretical derivation and experimental simulation. Specifically, the final spreading scale displays a second-order continuous phase transition when individuals exhibit active LTI behaviors, and, when individuals behave negatively, a first-order discontinuous phase transition can be noticed in the final spreading scale. Additionally, the propagation phenomena might be impacted by the degree distribution heterogeneity. Finally, there is a good agreement between the outcomes of our theoretical analysis and simulation.

Coupled spreading between information and epidemics on multiplex networks with simplicial complexes

The way of information diffusion among individuals can be quite complicated, and it is not only limited to one type of communication, but also impacted by multiple channels. Meanwhile, it is easier for an agent to accept an idea once the proportion of their friends who take it goes beyond a specific threshold. Furthermore, in social networks, some higher-order structures, such as simplicial complexes and hypergraph, can describe more abundant and realistic phenomena. Therefore, based on the classical multiplex network model coupling the infectious disease with its relevant information, we propose a novel epidemic model, in which the lower layer represents the physical contact network depicting the epidemic dissemination, while the upper layer stands for the online social network picturing the diffusion of information. In particular, the upper layer is generated by random simplicial complexes, among which the herd-like threshold model is adopted to characterize the information diffusion, and the unaware-aware-unaware model is also considered simultaneously. Using the microscopic Markov chain approach, we analyze the epidemic threshold of the proposed epidemic model and further check the results with numerous Monte Carlo simulations. It is discovered that the threshold model based on the random simplicial complexes network may still cause abrupt transitions on the epidemic threshold. It is also found that simplicial complexes may greatly influence the epidemic size at a steady state.

Distinct spreading patterns induced by coexisting channels in information spreading dynamics

In modern society, new communication channels and social platforms remarkably change the way of people receiving and sharing information, but the influences of these channels on information spreading dynamics have not been fully explored, especially in the aspects of outbreak patterns. To this end, based on a susceptible-accepted-recovered model, we examined the outbreak patterns of information spreading in a two-layered network with two coexisting channels: the intra-links within a layer and the inter-links across layers. Depending on the inter-layer coupling strength, i.e., average node degree and transmission probability between the two layers, we observed three different spreading patterns: (i) a localized outbreak with weak inter-layer coupling, (ii) two peaks with a time-delay outbreak appear for an intermediate coupling, and (iii) a synchronized outbreak for a strong coupling. Moreover, we showed that even though the average degree between the two layers is small, a large transmission probability still can compensate and promote the information spread from one layer to another, indicating by that the critical average degree decreases as a power law with transmission probability between the two layers. Additionally, we found that a large gap closed to the critical inter-layer average degree appears in the phase space of theoretical analysis, which indicates the emergence of a global large-scope outbreak. Our findings may, therefore, be of significance for understanding the outbreak behaviors of information spreading in real world.

Dynamics of the threshold model on hypergraphs

The threshold model has been widely adopted as a prototype for studying contagion processes on social networks. In this paper, we consider individual interactions in groups of three or more vertices and study the threshold model on hypergraphs. To understand how high-order interactions affect the breakdown of the system, we develop a theoretical framework based on generating function technology to derive the cascade condition and the giant component of vulnerable vertices, which depend on both hyperedges and hyperdegrees. First, we find a dual role of the hyperedge in propagation: when the average hyperdegree is small, increasing the size of the hyperedges may make the system fragile, while the average hyperdegree is relatively large, the increase of the hyperedges causes the system to be robust. Then, we identify the effects of threshold, hyperdegree, and hyperedge heterogeneities. The heterogeneity of individual thresholds causes the system to be more fragile, while the heterogeneity of individual hyperdegrees or hyperedges increases the robustness of the system. Finally, we show that the higher hyperdegree a vertex has, the larger possibility and faster speed it will get activated. We verify these results by simulating meme spreading on both random hypergraph models and hypergraphs constructed from empirical data.

Quantum Contagion: A Quantum-Like Approach for the Analysis of Social Contagion Dynamics with Heterogeneous Adoption Thresholds

Modeling the information of social contagion processes has recently attracted a substantial amount of interest from researchers due to its wide applicability in network science, multi-agent-systems, information science, and marketing. Unlike in biological spreading, the existence of a reinforcement effect in social contagion necessitates considering the complexity of individuals in the systems. Although many studies acknowledged the heterogeneity of the individuals in their adoption of information, there are no studies that take into account the individuals’ uncertainty during their adoption decision-making. This resulted in less than optimal modeling of social contagion dynamics in the existence of phase transition in the final adoption size versus transmission probability. We employed the Inverse Born Problem (IBP) to represent probabilistic entities as complex probability amplitudes in edge-based compartmental theory, and demonstrated that our novel approach performs better in the prediction of social contagion dynamics through extensive simulations on random regular networks.

Effects of heterogeneous self-protection awareness on resource-epidemic coevolution dynamics

Recent studies have demonstrated that the allocation of individual resources has a significant influence on the dynamics of epidemic spreading. In the real scenario, individuals have a different level of awareness for self-protection when facing the outbreak of an epidemic. To investigate the effects of the heterogeneous self-awareness distribution on the epidemic dynamics, we propose a resource-epidemic coevolution model in this paper. We first study the effects of the heterogeneous distributions of node degree and self-awareness on the epidemic dynamics on artificial networks. Through extensive simulations, we find that the heterogeneity of self-awareness distribution suppresses the outbreak of an epidemic, and the heterogeneity of degree distribution enhances the epidemic spreading. Next, we study how the correlation between node degree and self-awareness affects the epidemic dynamics. The results reveal that when the correlation is positive, the heterogeneity of self-awareness restrains the epidemic spreading. While, when there is a significant negative correlation, strong heterogeneous or strong homogeneous distribution of the self-awareness is not conducive for disease suppression. We find an optimal heterogeneity of self-awareness, at which the disease can be suppressed to the most extent. Further research shows that the epidemic threshold increases monotonously when the correlation changes from most negative to most positive, and a critical value of the correlation coefficient is found. When the coefficient is below the critical value, an optimal heterogeneity of self-awareness exists; otherwise, the epidemic threshold decreases monotonously with the decline of the self-awareness heterogeneity. At last, we verify the results on four typical real-world networks and find that the results on the real-world networks are consistent with those on the artificial network.

Impact of contact preference on social contagions on complex networks

Preferential contact process limited by contact capacity remarkably affects the spreading dynamics on complex networks, but the influence of this preferential contact in social contagions has not been fully explored. To this end, we propose a behavior spreading model based on the mechanism of preferential contact. The probability in the model that an adopted individual contacts and tries to transmit the behavioral information to one of his/her neighbors depends on the neighbor's degree. Besides, a preferential exponent determines the tendency to contact with either small-degree or large-degree nodes. We use a dynamic messaging method to describe this complex contagion process and verify that the method is accurate to predict the spreading dynamics by numerical simulations on strongly heterogeneous networks. We find that the preferential contact mechanism leads to a crossover phenomenon in the growth of final adoption size. By reducing the preferential exponent, we observe a change from a continuous growth to an explosive growth and then to a continuous growth with the transmission rate of behavioral information. Moreover, we find that there is an optimal preferential exponent which maximizes the final adoption size at a fixed information transmission rate, and this optimal preferential exponent decreases with the information transmission rate. The used theory can be extended to other types of dynamics, and our findings provide useful and general insights into social contagion processes in the real world.

Misinformation spreading on correlated multiplex networks

The numerous expanding online social networks offer fast channels for misinformation spreading, which could have a serious impact on socioeconomic systems. Researchers across multiple areas have paid attention to this issue with a view of addressing it. However, no systematical theoretical study has been performed to date on observing misinformation spreading on correlated multiplex networks. In this study, we propose a multiplex network-based misinformation spreading model, considering the fact that each individual can obtain misinformation from multiple platforms. Subsequently, we develop a heterogeneous edge-based compartmental theory to comprehend the spreading dynamics of our proposed model. In addition, we establish an analytical method based on stability analysis to obtain the misinformation outbreak threshold. On the basis of these theories, we finally analyze the influence of different dynamical and structural parameters on the misinformation spreading dynamics. Results show that the misinformation outbreak size R(∞) grows continuously with the effective transmission probability β once β exceeds a certain value, that is, the outbreak threshold β_c. Large average degrees, strong degree heterogeneity, or positive interlayer correlation will reduce β_c, accelerating the outbreak of misinformation. Besides, increasing the degree heterogeneity or a more positive interlayer correlation will enlarge (reduce) R(∞) for small (large) values of β. Our systematic theoretical analysis results agree well with the numerical simulation results. Our proposed model and accurate theoretical analysis will serve as a useful framework to understand and predict the spreading dynamics of misinformation on multiplex networks and thereby pave the way to address this serious issue.

TSSCM: A synergism-based three-step cascade model for influence maximization on large-scale social networks

Identification of the most influential spreaders that maximize information propagation in social networks is a classic optimization problem, called the influence maximization (IM) problem. A reasonable diffusion model that can accurately simulate information propagation in social networks is the key step to efficiently solving the IM problem. Synergism of neighbor nodes plays an important role in information propagation dynamics. Some known diffusion models have considered the reinforcement mechanism in defining the activation threshold. Most of these models focus on the synergetic effects of nodes on their common neighbors, but the accumulation of synergism has been neglected in previous studies. Inspired by these facts, we first discuss the catalytic role of synergism in the spreading dynamics of social networks and then propose a novel diffusion model called the synergism-based three-step cascade model (TSSCM) based on the above analysis and the three-degree influence theory. Finally, we devise an algorithm for solving the IM problem based on the TSSCM. Experiments on five real large-scale social networks demonstrate the efficacy of our method, which achieves competitive results in terms of influence spreading compared to the four other algorithms tested.

Anomalous structure and dynamics in news diffusion among heterogeneous individuals

Previous research has suggested that well-connected nodes in a network (commonly referred to as hubs) are better at spreading information than those with fewer connections (ordinary users). Here we investigate the roles of nodes with different numbers of connections by studying how people share news online. Quantitative analysis shows that users without many connections can sometimes spread news more effectively than well-connected users when the diffusion pattern has dendrite-like paths that reach far into the network, leading to a non-Gaussian distance distribution. When the hubs dominate, however, the distribution is Gaussian. Enhanced interactions among ordinary users are the key to the emergence of non-Gaussian characteristics. Finally, we introduce a message-passing model that reproduces the observed diffusion features. This model shows that patterns dominated by either hubs or ordinary users can be clearly demarcated by measuring the average number of forwards.

Self-awareness control effect of cooperative epidemics on complex networks

Coinfection mechanism is a common interacting mode between multiple diseases in real spreading processes, where the diseases mutually increase their susceptibility, and has aroused widespread studies in network science. We use the bond percolation theory to characterize the coinfection model under two self-awareness control strategies, including immunization strategy and quarantine strategy, and to study the impacts of the synergy effect and control strategies on cooperative epidemics. We find that strengthening the synergy effect can reduce the epidemic threshold and enhance the outbreak size of coinfected networks. On Erdős-Rényi networks, the synergy effect will induce a crossover phenomenon of phase transition, i.e., make the type of phase transition from being continuous to discontinuous. Self-awareness control strategies play a non-negligible role in suppressing cooperative epidemics. In particular, increasing immunization or the quarantine rate can enhance the epidemic threshold and reduce the outbreak size of cooperative epidemics, and lead to a crossover phenomenon of transition from being discontinuous to continuous. The impact of quarantine strategy on cooperative epidemics is more significant than the immunization strategy, which is verified on scale-free networks.

Close and ordinary social contacts: How important are they in promoting large-scale contagion?

An outstanding problem of interdisciplinary interest is to understand quantitatively the role of social contacts in contagion dynamics. In general, there are two types of contacts: close ones among friends, colleagues and family members, etc., and ordinary contacts from encounters with strangers. Typically, social reinforcement occurs for close contacts. Taking into account both types of contacts, we develop a contact-based model for social contagion. We find that, associated with the spreading dynamics, for random networks there is coexistence of continuous and discontinuous phase transitions, but for heterogeneous networks the transition is continuous. We also find that ordinary contacts play a crucial role in promoting large-scale spreading, and the number of close contacts determines not only the nature of the phase transitions but also the value of the outbreak threshold in random networks. For heterogeneous networks from the real world, the abundance of close contacts affects the epidemic threshold, while its role in facilitating the spreading depends on the adoption threshold assigned to it. We uncover two striking phenomena. First, a strong interplay between ordinary and close contacts is necessary for generating prevalent spreading. In fact, only when there are propagation paths of reasonable length which involve both close and ordinary contacts are large-scale outbreaks of social contagions possible. Second, abundant close contacts in heterogeneous networks promote both outbreak and spreading of the contagion through the transmission channels among the hubs, when both values of the threshold and transmission rate among ordinary contacts are small. We develop a theoretical framework to obtain an analytic understanding of the main findings on random networks, with support from extensive numerical computations. Overall, ordinary contacts facilitate spreading over the entire network, while close contacts determine the way by which outbreaks occur, i.e., through a second- or first-order phase transition. These results provide quantitative insights into how certain social behaviors can emerge and become prevalent, which has potential implications not only to social science but also to economics and political science.

Social contagions on interconnected networks of heterogeneous populations

Recently, the dynamics of social contagions ranging from the adoption of a new product to the diffusion of a rumor have attracted more and more attention from researchers. However, the combined effects of individual's heterogenous adoption behavior and the interconnected structure on the social contagions processes have yet to be understood deeply. In this paper, we study theoretically and numerically the social contagions with heterogeneous adoption threshold in interconnected networks. We first develop a generalized edge-based compartmental approach to predict the evolution of social contagion dynamics on interconnected networks. Both the theoretical predictions and numerical results show that the growth of the final recovered fraction with the intralayer propagation rate displays double transitions. When increasing the initial adopted proportion or the adopted threshold, the first transition remains continuous within different dynamic parameters, but the second transition gradually vanishes. When decreasing the interlayer propagation rate, the change in the double transitions mentioned above is also observed. The heterogeneity of degree distribution does not affect the type of first transition, but increasing the heterogeneity of degree distribution results in the type change of the second transition from discontinuous to continuous. The consistency between the theoretical predictions and numerical results confirms the validity of our proposed analytical approach.

Double transition of information spreading in a two-layered network

A great deal of significant progress has been seen in the study of information spreading on populations of networked individuals. A common point in many of the past studies is that there is only one transition in the phase diagram of the final accepted size versus the transmission probability. However, whether other factors alter this phenomenology is still under debate, especially for the case of information spreading through many channels and platforms. In the present study, we adopt a two-layered network to represent the interactions of multiple channels and propose a Susceptible-Accepted-Recovered information spreading model. Interestingly, our model shows a novel double transition including a continuous transition and a following discontinuous transition in the phase diagram, which originates from two outbreaks between the two layers of the network. Furthermore, we reveal that the key factors are a weak coupling condition between the two layers, a large adoption threshold, and the difference of the degree distributions between the two layers. Moreover, we also test the model in the coupled empirical social networks and find similar results as in the synthetic networks. Then, an edge-based compartmental theory is developed which fully explains all numerical results. Our findings may be of significance for understanding the secondary outbreaks of information in real life.

Synergistic interactions promote behavior spreading and alter phase transitions on multiplex networks

Synergistic interactions are ubiquitous in the real world. Recent studies have revealed that, for a single-layer network, synergy can enhance spreading and even induce an explosive contagion. There is at the present a growing interest in behavior spreading dynamics on multiplex networks. What is the role of synergistic interactions in behavior spreading in such networked systems? To address this question, we articulate a synergistic behavior spreading model on a double layer network, where the key manifestation of the synergistic interactions is that the adoption of one behavior by a node in one layer enhances its probability of adopting the behavior in the other layer. A general result is that synergistic interactions can greatly enhance the spreading of the behaviors in both layers. A remarkable phenomenon is that the interactions can alter the nature of the phase transition associated with behavior adoption or spreading dynamics. In particular, depending on the transmission rate of one behavior in a network layer, synergistic interactions can lead to a discontinuous (first-order) or a continuous (second-order) transition in the adoption scope of the other behavior with respect to its transmission rate. A surprising two-stage spreading process can arise: due to synergy, nodes having adopted one behavior in one layer adopt the other behavior in the other layer and then prompt the remaining nodes in this layer to quickly adopt the behavior. Analytically, we develop an edge-based compartmental theory and perform a bifurcation analysis to fully understand, in the weak synergistic interaction regime where the dynamical correlation between the network layers is negligible, the role of the interactions in promoting the social behavioral spreading dynamics in the whole system.

Dynamics of social contagions with local trend imitation

Research on social contagion dynamics has not yet included a theoretical analysis of the ubiquitous local trend imitation (LTI) characteristic. We propose a social contagion model with a tent-like adoption probability to investigate the effect of this LTI characteristic on behavior spreading. We also propose a generalized edge-based compartmental theory to describe the proposed model. Through extensive numerical simulations and theoretical analyses, we find a crossover in the phase transition: when the LTI capacity is strong, the growth of the final adoption size exhibits a second-order phase transition. When the LTI capacity is weak, we see a first-order phase transition. For a given behavioral information transmission probability, there is an optimal LTI capacity that maximizes the final adoption size. Finally we find that the above phenomena are not qualitatively affected by the heterogeneous degree distribution. Our suggested theoretical predictions agree with the simulation results.

Impacts of opinion leaders on social contagions

Opinion leaders are ubiquitous in both online and offline social networks, but the impacts of opinion leaders on social behavior contagions are still not fully understood, especially by using a mathematical model. Here, we generalize the classical Watts threshold model and address the influences of the opinion leaders, where an individual adopts a new behavior if one of his/her opinion leaders adopts the behavior. First, we choose the opinion leaders randomly from all individuals in the network and find that the impacts of opinion leaders make other individuals adopt the behavior more easily. Specifically, the existence of opinion leaders reduces the lowest mean degree of the network required for the global behavior adoption and increases the highest mean degree of the network that the global behavior adoption can occur. Besides, the introduction of opinion leaders accelerates the behavior adoption but does not change the adoption order of individuals. The developed theoretical predictions agree with the simulation results. Second, we randomly choose the opinion leaders from the top h% of the highest degree individuals and find an optimal h% for the network with the lowest mean degree that the global behavior adoption can occur. Meanwhile, the influences of opinion leaders on accelerating the adoption of behaviors become less significant and can even be ignored when reducing the value of h%.

A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks

Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through the Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e., either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a susceptible-accepted-recovered model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model, we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society.

Epidemic spreading dynamics with drug resistance and heterogeneous contacts

Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model considering the two key ingredients, in which the contacts are grouped into two classes: strong contacts and normal ones. Next, we present a unified edge-based compartmental approach to the spread dynamics on Erdös-Rényi (ER) networks and validate its results by extensive numerical simulations. In case that epidemic is totally drug-resistant, we both numerically and theoretically show a continuous growth of epidemics with infection probability when number of strong contacts is not enough for the emergence of null threshold. If the epidemic owns partial resistance, we would observe evident discontinuous growth with infection probability (discontinuous transitions) and larger final epidemic sizes for few strong contacts, instead of emergence of null threshold with increase of strong contacts. Inhibiting effect of infection threshold, positive roles of strong contacts and strength of strong contacts in promoting outbreaks are also approved. Throughout this paper, we could drive exact predictions through the analytical approach, showing good agreements with numerical simulations.

Interactive social contagions and co-infections on complex networks

What we are learning about the ubiquitous interactions among multiple social contagion processes on complex networks challenges existing theoretical methods. We propose an interactive social behavior spreading model, in which two behaviors sequentially spread on a complex network, one following the other. Adopting the first behavior has either a synergistic or an inhibiting effect on the spread of the second behavior. We find that the inhibiting effect of the first behavior can cause the continuous phase transition of the second behavior spreading to become discontinuous. This discontinuous phase transition of the second behavior can also become a continuous one when the effect of adopting the first behavior becomes synergistic. This synergy allows the second behavior to be more easily adopted and enlarges the co-existence region of both behaviors. We establish an edge-based compartmental method, and our theoretical predictions match well with the simulation results. Our findings provide helpful insights into better understanding the spread of interactive social behavior in human society.

Reconstructing complex networks without time series

In the real world there are situations where the network dynamics are transient (e.g., various spreading processes) and the final nodal states represent the available data. Can the network topology be reconstructed based on data that are not time series? Assuming that an ensemble of the final nodal states resulting from statistically independent initial triggers (signals) of the spreading dynamics is available, we develop a maximum likelihood estimation-based framework to accurately infer the interaction topology. For dynamical processes that result in a binary final state, the framework enables network reconstruction based solely on the final nodal states. Additional information, such as the first arrival time of each signal at each node, can improve the reconstruction accuracy. For processes with a uniform final state, the first arrival times can be exploited to reconstruct the network. We derive a mathematical theory for our framework and validate its performance and robustness using various combinations of spreading dynamics and real-world network topologies.

Emergence of hysteresis loop in social contagions on complex networks

Understanding the spreading mechanisms of social contagions in complex network systems has attracted much attention in the physics community. Here we propose a generalized threshold model to describe social contagions. Using extensive numerical simulations and theoretical analyses, we find that a hysteresis loop emerges in the system. Specifically, the steady state of the system is sensitive to the initial conditions of the dynamics of the system. In the steady state, the adoption size increases discontinuously with the transmission probability of information about social contagions, and trial size exhibits a non-monotonic pattern, i.e., it first increases discontinuously then decreases continuously. Finally we study social contagions on heterogeneous networks and find that network topology does not qualitatively affect our results.

Social contagions on weighted networks

We investigate critical behaviors of a social contagion model on weighted networks. An edge-weight compartmental approach is applied to analyze the weighted social contagion on strongly heterogenous networks with skewed degree and weight distributions. We find that degree heterogeneity cannot only alter the nature of contagion transition from discontinuous to continuous but also can enhance or hamper the size of adoption, depending on the unit transmission probability. We also show that the heterogeneity of weight distribution always hinders social contagions, and does not alter the transition type.

Social contagions on time-varying community networks

Time-varying community structures exist widely in real-world networks. However, previous studies on the dynamics of spreading seldom took this characteristic into account, especially those on social contagions. To study the effects of time-varying community structures on social contagions, we propose a non-Markovian social contagion model on time-varying community networks based on the activity-driven network model. A mean-field theory is developed to analyze the proposed model. Through theoretical analyses and numerical simulations, two hierarchical features of the behavior adoption processes are found. That is, when community strength is relatively large, the behavior can easily spread in one of the communities, while in the other community the spreading only occurs at higher behavioral information transmission rates. Meanwhile, in spatial-temporal evolution processes, hierarchical orders are observed for the behavior adoption. Moreover, under different information transmission rates, three distinctive patterns are demonstrated in the change of the whole network's final adoption proportion along with the growing community strength. Within a suitable range of transmission rate, an optimal community strength can be found that can maximize the final adoption proportion. Finally, compared with the average activity potential, the promoting or inhibiting of social contagions is much more influenced by the number of edges generated by active nodes.

Explosive spreading on complex networks: The role of synergy

In spite of the vast literature on spreading dynamics on complex networks, the role of local synergy, i.e., the interaction of elements that when combined produce a total effect greater than the sum of the individual elements, has been studied but only for irreversible spreading dynamics. Reversible spreading dynamics are ubiquitous but their interplay with synergy has remained unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we articulate a model to incorporate local synergistic effect into the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible process, in which the probability for a susceptible node to become infected through an infected neighbor is enhanced when the neighborhood of the latter contains a number of infected nodes. We derive master equations incorporating the synergistic effect, with predictions that agree well with the numerical results. A striking finding is that when a parameter characterizing the strength of the synergy reinforcement effect is above a critical value, the steady-state density of the infected nodes versus the basic transmission rate exhibits an explosively increasing behavior and a hysteresis loop emerges. In fact, increasing the synergy strength can promote the spreading and reduce the invasion and persistence thresholds of the hysteresis loop. A physical understanding of the synergy promoting explosive spreading and the associated hysteresis behavior can be obtained through a mean-field analysis.

Social contagions on interdependent lattice networks

Although an increasing amount of research is being done on the dynamical processes on interdependent spatial networks, knowledge of how interdependent spatial networks influence the dynamics of social contagion in them is sparse. Here we present a novel non-Markovian social contagion model on interdependent spatial networks composed of two identical two-dimensional lattices. We compare the dynamics of social contagion on networks with different fractions of dependency links and find that the density of final recovered nodes increases as the number of dependency links is increased. We use a finite-size analysis method to identify the type of phase transition in the giant connected components (GCC) of the final adopted nodes and find that as we increase the fraction of dependency links, the phase transition switches from second-order to first-order. In strong interdependent spatial networks with abundant dependency links, increasing the fraction of initial adopted nodes can induce the switch from a first-order to second-order phase transition associated with social contagion dynamics. In networks with a small number of dependency links, the phase transition remains second-order. In addition, both the second-order and first-order phase transition points can be decreased by increasing the fraction of dependency links or the number of initially-adopted nodes.

Unification of theoretical approaches for epidemic spreading on complex networks

Models of epidemic spreading on complex networks have attracted great attention among researchers in physics, mathematics, and epidemiology due to their success in predicting and controlling scenarios of epidemic spreading in real-world scenarios. To understand the interplay between epidemic spreading and the topology of a contact network, several outstanding theoretical approaches have been developed. An accurate theoretical approach describing the spreading dynamics must take both the network topology and dynamical correlations into consideration at the expense of increasing the complexity of the equations. In this short survey we unify the most widely used theoretical approaches for epidemic spreading on complex networks in terms of increasing complexity, including the mean-field, the heterogeneous mean-field, the quench mean-field, dynamical message-passing, link percolation, and pairwise approximation. We build connections among these approaches to provide new insights into developing an accurate theoretical approach to spreading dynamics on complex networks.

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion

BACKGROUND

Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data.

METHODS

We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution.

RESULTS

We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation.

CONCLUSION

To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities also represents a highly correlated analysis tool to evaluate the advertising value of TV series.

Suppressing disease spreading by using information diffusion on multiplex networks

Although there is always an interplay between the dynamics of information diffusion and disease spreading, the empirical research on the systemic coevolution mechanisms connecting these two spreading dynamics is still lacking. Here we investigate the coevolution mechanisms and dynamics between information and disease spreading by utilizing real data and a proposed spreading model on multiplex network. Our empirical analysis finds asymmetrical interactions between the information and disease spreading dynamics. Our results obtained from both the theoretical framework and extensive stochastic numerical simulations suggest that an information outbreak can be triggered in a communication network by its own spreading dynamics or by a disease outbreak on a contact network, but that the disease threshold is not affected by information spreading. Our key finding is that there is an optimal information transmission rate that markedly suppresses the disease spreading. We find that the time evolution of the dynamics in the proposed model qualitatively agrees with the real-world spreading processes at the optimal information transmission rate.

Impacts of complex behavioral responses on asymmetric interacting spreading dynamics in multiplex networks

Information diffusion and disease spreading in communication-contact layered network are typically asymmetrically coupled with each other, in which disease spreading can be significantly affected by the way an individual being aware of disease responds to the disease. Many recent studies have demonstrated that human behavioral adoption is a complex and non-Markovian process, where the probability of behavior adoption is dependent on the cumulative times of information received and the social reinforcement effect of the cumulative information. In this paper, the impacts of such a non-Markovian vaccination adoption behavior on the epidemic dynamics and the control effects are explored. It is found that this complex adoption behavior in the communication layer can significantly enhance the epidemic threshold and reduce the final infection rate. By defining the social cost as the total cost of vaccination and treatment, it can be seen that there exists an optimal social reinforcement effect and optimal information transmission rate allowing the minimal social cost. Moreover, a mean-field theory is developed to verify the correctness of simulation results.

Predicting the epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-recovered model

Researchers have developed several theoretical methods for predicting epidemic thresholds, including the mean-field like (MFL) method, the quenched mean-field (QMF) method, and the dynamical message passing (DMP) method. When these methods are applied to predict epidemic threshold they often produce differing results and their relative levels of accuracy are still unknown. We systematically analyze these two issues-relationships among differing results and levels of accuracy-by studying the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model on uncorrelated configuration networks and a group of 56 real-world networks. In uncorrelated configuration networks the MFL and DMP methods yield identical predictions that are larger and more accurate than the prediction generated by the QMF method. As for the 56 real-world networks, the epidemic threshold obtained by the DMP method is more likely to reach the accurate epidemic threshold because it incorporates full network topology information and some dynamical correlations. We find that in most of the networks with positive degree-degree correlations, an eigenvector localized on the high k-core nodes, or a high level of clustering, the epidemic threshold predicted by the MFL method, which uses the degree distribution as the only input information, performs better than the other two methods.

Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network

There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

Contagion on complex networks with persuasion

The threshold model has been widely adopted as a classic model for studying contagion processes on social networks. We consider asymmetric individual interactions in social networks and introduce a persuasion mechanism into the threshold model. Specifically, we study a combination of adoption and persuasion in cascading processes on complex networks. It is found that with the introduction of the persuasion mechanism, the system may become more vulnerable to global cascades, and the effects of persuasion tend to be more significant in heterogeneous networks than those in homogeneous networks: a comparison between heterogeneous and homogeneous networks shows that under weak persuasion, heterogeneous networks tend to be more robust against random shocks than homogeneous networks; whereas under strong persuasion, homogeneous networks are more stable. Finally, we study the effects of adoption and persuasion threshold heterogeneity on systemic stability. Though both heterogeneities give rise to global cascades, the adoption heterogeneity has an overwhelmingly stronger impact than the persuasion heterogeneity when the network connectivity is sufficiently dense.

Explosive Contagion in Networks

The spread of social phenomena such as behaviors, ideas or products is an ubiquitous but remarkably complex phenomenon. A successful avenue to study the spread of social phenomena relies on epidemic models by establishing analogies between the transmission of social phenomena and infectious diseases. Such models typically assume simple social interactions restricted to pairs of individuals; effects of the context are often neglected. Here we show that local synergistic effects associated with acquaintances of pairs of individuals can have striking consequences on the spread of social phenomena at large scales. The most interesting predictions are found for a scenario in which the contagion ability of a spreader decreases with the number of ignorant individuals surrounding the target ignorant. This mechanism mimics ubiquitous situations in which the willingness of individuals to adopt a new product depends not only on the intrinsic value of the product but also on whether his acquaintances will adopt this product or not. In these situations, we show that the typically smooth (second order) transitions towards large social contagion become explosive (first order). The proposed synergistic mechanisms therefore explain why ideas, rumours or products can suddenly and sometimes unexpectedly catch on.

Dynamics of social contagions with limited contact capacity

Individuals are always limited by some inelastic resources, such as time and energy, which restrict them to dedicate to social interaction and limit their contact capacities. Contact capacity plays an important role in dynamics of social contagions, which so far has eluded theoretical analysis. In this paper, we first propose a non-Markovian model to understand the effects of contact capacity on social contagions, in which each adopted individual can only contact and transmit the information to a finite number of neighbors. We then develop a heterogeneous edge-based compartmental theory for this model, and a remarkable agreement with simulations is obtained. Through theory and simulations, we find that enlarging the contact capacity makes the network more fragile to behavior spreading. Interestingly, we find that both the continuous and discontinuous dependence of the final adoption size on the information transmission probability can arise. There is a crossover phenomenon between the two types of dependence. More specifically, the crossover phenomenon can be induced by enlarging the contact capacity only when the degree exponent is above a critical degree exponent, while the final behavior adoption size always grows continuously for any contact capacity when degree exponent is below the critical degree exponent.