Applying allometric scaling to predator-prey systems

Empirical parameterisation and dynamical analysis of the allometric Rosenzweig-MacArthur equations

Allometric settings of population dynamics models are appealing due to their parsimonious nature and broad utility when studying system level effects. Here, we parameterise the size-scaled Rosenzweig-MacArthur differential equations to eliminate prey-mass dependency, facilitating an in depth analytic study of the equations which incorporates scaling parameters' contributions to coexistence. We define the functional response term to match empirical findings, and examine situations where metabolic theory derivations and observation diverge. The dynamical properties of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur system, encompassing the distribution of size-abundance equilibria, the scaling of period and amplitude of population cycling, and relationships between predator and prey abundances, are consistent with empirical observation. Our parameterisation is an accurate minimal model across 15+ orders of mass magnitude.

An alternating active-dormitive strategy enables disadvantaged prey to outcompete the perennially active prey through Parrondo's paradox

BACKGROUND

Dormancy is widespread in nature, but while it can be an effective adaptive strategy in fluctuating environments, the dormant forms are costly due to the inability to breed and the relatively high energy consumption. We explore mathematical models of predator-prey systems, in order to assess whether dormancy can be an effective adaptive strategy to outcompete perennially active (PA) prey, even when both forms of the dormitive prey (active and dormant) are individually disadvantaged.

RESULTS

We develop a dynamic population model by introducing an additional dormitive prey population to the existing predator-prey model which can be active (active form) and enter dormancy (dormant form). In this model, both forms of the dormitive prey are individually at a disadvantage compared to the PA prey and thus would go extinct due to their low growth rate, energy waste on the production of dormant prey, and the inability of the latter to grow autonomously. However, the dormitive prey can paradoxically outcompete the PA prey with superior traits and even cause its extinction by alternating between the two losing strategies. We observed higher fitness of the dormitive prey in rich environments because a large predator population in a rich environment cannot be supported by the prey without adopting an evasive strategy, that is, dormancy. In such environments, populations experience large-scale fluctuations, which can be survived by dormitive but not by PA prey.

CONCLUSION

We show that dormancy can be an effective adaptive strategy to outcompete superior prey, recapitulating the game-theoretic Parrondo's paradox, where two losing strategies combine to achieve a winning outcome. We suggest that the species with the ability to switch between the active and dormant forms can dominate communities via competitive exclusion.

The uneasy coexistence of predators and pathogens

Disease and predation are both highly important in ecology, and pathogens with multiple host species have turned out to be common. Nonetheless, the interplay between multi-host epidemics and predation has received relatively little attention. Here, we analyse a model of a predator-prey system with disease in both prey and predator populations and determine reasonable parameter values using allometric mass scaling relations. Our analysis focuses on the possibility of extinction events rather than the linear stability of the model equations, and we derive approximate relations for the parameter values at which we expect these events to occur. We find that if the predator is a specialist, epidemics frequently drive the predator species to extinction. If the predator has an additional, immune prey species, predators will usually survive. Coexistence of predator and disease is impossible in the single-prey model. We conclude that for the prey species, carrying a pathogen can be an effective weapon against predators, and that being a generalist is a major advantage for a predator in the event of an epidemic affecting the prey or both species.

Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey

Epidemics are highly unpredictable, and so are real-world population dynamics. In this paper, we examine a dynamical model of an ecosystem with one predator and two prey species of which one carries a disease. We find that the system behaves chaotically for a wide range of parameters. Using the allometric mass scaling of animal and disease lifetimes, we predict chaos if (a) the disease is infectious enough to persist, and (b) it affects the larger prey species. This provides another example of chaos in a Lotka-Volterra system and a possible explanation for the apparent randomness of epizootic outbreaks.