Pulmonary response prediction through personalized basis functions in a virtual patient model

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Recruitment maneuvers with subsequent positive-end-expiratory-pressure (PEEP) have proven effective in recruiting lung volume and preventing alveoli collapse. However, determining a safe, effective, and patient-specific PEEP is not standardized, and this more optimal PEEP level evolves with patient condition, requiring personalised monitoring and care approaches to maintain optimal ventilation settings.

METHODS

This research examines 3 physiologically relevant basis function sets (exponential, parabolic, cumulative) to enable better prediction of elastance evolution for a virtual patient or digital twin model of MV lung mechanics, including novel elements to model and predict distension elastance. Prediction accuracy and robustness are validated against recruitment maneuver data from 18 volume-controlled ventilation (VCV) patients at 7 different baseline PEEP levels (0 to 12 cmH2O) and 14 pressure-controlled ventilation (PCV) patients at 4 different baseline PEEP levels (6 to 12 cmH2O), yielding 623 and 294 prediction cases, respectively. Predictions were made up to 12 cmH2O of added PEEP ahead, covering 6 × 2 cmH2O PEEP steps.

RESULTS

The 3 basis function sets yield median absolute peak inspiratory pressure (PIP) prediction error of 1.63 cmH2O for VCV patients, and median peak inspiratory volume (PIV) prediction error of 0.028 L for PCV patients. The exponential basis function set yields a better trade-off of overall performance across VCV and PCV prediction than parabolic and cumulative basis function sets from other studies. Comparing predicted and clinically measured distension prediction in VCV demonstrated consistent, robust high accuracy with R2 = 0.90-0.95.

CONCLUSIONS

The results demonstrate recruitment mechanics are best captured by an exponential basis function across different mechanical ventilation modes, matching physiological expectations, and accurately capture, for the first time, distension mechanics to within 5-10 % accuracy. Enabling the risk of lung injury to be predicted before changing ventilator settings. The overall outcomes significantly extend and more fully validate this digital twin or virtual mechanical ventilation patient model.

A simple modeling framework for prediction in the human glucose-insulin system

Forecasting blood glucose (BG) levels with routinely collected data is useful for glycemic management. BG dynamics are nonlinear, complex, and nonstationary, which can be represented by nonlinear models. However, the sparsity of routinely collected data creates parameter identifiability issues when high-fidelity complex models are used, thereby resulting in inaccurate forecasts. One can use models with reduced physiological fidelity for robust and accurate parameter estimation and forecasting with sparse data. For this purpose, we approximate the nonlinear dynamics of BG regulation by a linear stochastic differential equation: we develop a linear stochastic model, which can be specialized to different settings: type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and intensive care unit (ICU), with different choices of appropriate model functions. The model includes deterministic terms quantifying glucose removal from the bloodstream through the glycemic regulation system and representing the effect of nutrition and externally delivered insulin. The stochastic term encapsulates the BG oscillations. The model output is in the form of an expected value accompanied by a band around this value. The model parameters are estimated patient-specifically, leading to personalized models. The forecasts consist of values for BG mean and variation, quantifying possible high and low BG levels. Such predictions have potential use for glycemic management as part of control systems. We present experimental results on parameter estimation and forecasting in T2DM and ICU settings. We compare the model's predictive capability with two different nonlinear models built for T2DM and ICU contexts to have a sense of the level of prediction achieved by this model.

Blood Glucose Prediction Method Based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Model Fusion

Blood glucose stability in diabetic patients determines the degree of health, and changes in blood glucose levels are related to the outcome of diabetic patients. Therefore, accurate monitoring of blood glucose has a crucial role in controlling diabetes. Aiming at the problem of high volatility of blood glucose concentration in diabetic patients and the limitations of a single regression prediction model, this paper proposes a method for predicting blood glucose values based on particle swarm optimization and model fusion. First, the Kalman filtering algorithm is used to smooth and reduce the noise of the sensor current signal to reduce the effect of noise on the data. Then, the hyperparameter optimization of Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) models is performed using particle swarm optimization algorithm. Finally, the XGBoost and LightGBM models are used as the base learner and the Bayesian regression model as the meta-learner, and the stacking model fusion method is used to achieve the prediction of blood glucose values. In order to prove the effectiveness and superiority of the method in this paper, we compared the prediction results of stacking fusion model with other 6 models. The experimental results show that the stacking fusion model proposed in this paper can accurately predict blood glucose values, and the average absolute percentage error of blood glucose prediction is 13.01%, and the prediction error of the stacking fusion model is much lower than that of the other six models. Therefore, the proposed diabetes blood glucose prediction method in this paper has superiority.

GLYFE: review and benchmark of personalized glucose predictive models in type 1 diabetes

Due to the sensitive nature of diabetes-related data, preventing them from being easily shared between studies, and the wide discrepancies in their data processing pipeline, progress in the field of glucose prediction is hard to assess. To address this issue, we introduce GLYFE (GLYcemia Forecasting Evaluation), a benchmark of machine learning-based glucose predictive models. We present the accuracy and clinical acceptability of nine different models coming from the literature, from standard autoregressive to more complex neural network-based models. These results are obtained on two different datasets, namely UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Metabolic Simulator (T1DMS) and Ohio Type-1 Diabetes Mellitus (OhioT1DM), featuring artificial and real type 1 diabetic patients respectively. By providing extensive details about the data flow as well as by providing the whole source code of the benchmarking process, we ensure the reproducibility of the results and the usability of the benchmark by the community. Those results serve as a basis of comparison for future studies. In a field where data are hard to obtain, and where the comparison of results from different studies is often irrelevant, GLYFE gives the opportunity of gathering researchers around a standardized common environment.

Blood glucose concentration prediction based on VMD-KELM-AdaBoost

The time series of blood glucose concentration in diabetic patients are time-varying, nonlinear, and non-stationary. In order to improve the accuracy of blood glucose prediction, a multi-scale combination short-term blood glucose prediction model was constructed by combining the variational mode decomposition (VMD) method, the kernel extreme learning machine (KELM), and the AdaBoost algorithm (VMD-ELM-AdaBoost). Firstly, the blood glucose concentration series were decomposed into a set of intrinsic modal functions (IMFs) with different scales by the VMD method. On this basis, the KELM neural network and AdaBoost algorithm are combined to predict each IMF component. Finally, the cumulative blood glucose concentration prediction value is obtained by accumulating the KELM-AdaBoost prediction results of each IMF. The time series of measured blood glucose concentration were used for experimental analysis; the experimental results show that the proposed VMD-KELM-AdaBoost method has higher prediction accuracy compared with the classical prediction models such as ELM, KELM, SVM, and LSTM. The proposed VMD-KELM-AdaBoost model can still achieve high prediction accuracy 60 min in advance (the mean values of RMSE, MAPE, and CC are about 10.1422, 4.8629%, and 0.8737 respectively); in Clarke error mesh analysis, the proportion of falling into A region is about 95.7%; the sensitivity and false alarm rate of early alarm of hypoglycemia were 94.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Graphical abstract We have proposed a new prediction model. In the first part, for reducing thenon-stationarity, the data of blood glucose concentration was decomposed as a series ofIMF by VMD. In the second part, a prediction model based KELM and Adaboost wasestablished. In the third part, the KELM-Adaboost model was used to predict each IMF,and the predicted values of all IMFS were superimposed to obtain the final predictionresult of blood glucose concentration.

Ensemble methods in combination with compartment models for blood glucose level prediction in type 1 diabetes mellitus

Backgroung: Type 1 diabetes is a disease that adversely affects the daily life of a large percentage of people worldwide. Daily glucose levels regulation and useful advices provided to patients regarding their diet are essential for diabetes treatment. For this reason, the interest of the academic community has focused on developing innovative systems, such as decision support systems, based on glucose prediction algorithms. The present work presents the predictive capabilities of ensemble methods compared to individual algorithms while combining each method with compartment models for fast acting insulin absorption simulation. Methods: An approach of combining widely used glycemia prediction algorithms is proposed and three different ensemble methods (Linear, Bagging and Boosting metaregressor) are applied and evaluated on their ability to provide accurate predictions for 30, 45 and 60 minutes ahead prediction horizon. Moreover, glycemia levels, long and short acting insulin dosages and consumed carbohydrates from six type one people with diabetes are used as input data and the results are evaluated in terms of root-mean square error and Clarke error grid analysis. Results: According to results, ensemble methods can provide more accurate glucose concentration in comparison to individual algorithms. Bagging metaregressor, specifically, performed better than individual algorithms in all prediction horizons for small datasets. Bagging ensemble method improved the percentage in zone A according to Clarkes error grid analysis by 4% and in some cases by 9%. Moreover, compartment models are proved to improve results in combination with any method at any prediction horizon. This strengthen the potential practical usefulness of the ensemble methods and the importance of building accurate compartment models.

Improving blood glucose level predictability using machine learning

This study was designed to improve blood glucose level predictability and future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic event alerts through a novel patient-specific supervised-machine-learning (SML) analysis of glucose level based on a continuous-glucose-monitoring system (CGM) that needs no human intervention, and minimises false-positive alerts. The CGM data over 7 to 50 non-consecutive days from 11 type-1 diabetic patients aged 18 to 39 with a mean HbA1C of 7.5% ± 1.2% were analysed using four SML models. The algorithm was constructed to choose the best-fit model for each patient. Several statistical parameters were calculated to aggregate the magnitudes of the prediction errors. The personalised solutions provided by the algorithm were effective in predicting glucose levels 30 minutes after the last measurement. The average root-mean-square-error was 20.48 mg/dL and the average absolute-mean-error was 15.36 mg/dL when the best-fit model was selected for each patient. Using the best-fit-model, the true-positive-hypoglycemia-prediction-rate was 64%, whereas the false-positive- rate was 4.0%, and the false-negative-rate was 0.015%. Similar results were found even when only CGM samples below 70 were considered. The true-positive-hyperglycemia-prediction-rate was 61%. State-of-the-art SML tools are effective in predicting the glucose level values of patients with type-1diabetes and notifying these patients of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events, thus improving glycemic control. The algorithm can be used to improve the calculation of the basal insulin rate and bolus insulin, and suitable for a closed loop "artificial pancreas" system. The algorithm provides a personalised medical solution that can successfully identify the best-fit method for each patient.

A Glucose-Insulin Mixture Model and Application to Short-Term Hypoglycemia Prediction in the Night Time

OBJECTIVE

Insulin-induced hypoglycemia is recognized as a critical problem for diabetic patients, especially at night. To give glucose prediction and advance warning of hypoglycemia of at least 30 minutes, various glucose-insulin models have been proposed. Recognizing the complementary nature of the models, this research proposes a Glucose-Insulin Mixture (GIM) model to predict the glucose values for hypoglycemia detection, by optimally fusing different models with its adjusted parameters to address the inter- and intra-individual variability.

METHODS

Two types of classic glucose-insulin models, the Ruan model, with single-compartment glucose kinetics, and the Hovorka model, with two-compartment glucose kinetics, are selected as two candidate models. Based on Bayesian inference, GIM is introduced with quantified contributions from the models with the associated parameters. GIM is then applied to predict the glucose values and hypoglycemia events.

RESULTS

The proposed model is validated by the nocturnal glucose data collected from 12 participants with type 1 diabetes. The GIM model has promising fitting of RMSE within 0.3465 mmol/L and predicting of RMSE within 0.5571 mmol/L. According to the literature, the hypoglycemia is defined as 3.9 mmol/L, and the GIM model shows good short-term hypoglycemia prediction performance with the data collected within the last hour (accuracy: 95.97%, precision: 91.77%, recall: 95.60%). In addition, the probability of hypoglycemia event in 30 minutes is inferred.

CONCLUSION

GIM, by fusing various glucose-insulin models via Bayesian inference, has the promise to capture glucose dynamics and predict hypoglycemia.

SIGNIFICANCE

GIM based short-term hypoglycemia prediction has potential clinical utility for timely intervention.

Benchmarking Machine Learning Algorithms on Blood Glucose Prediction for Type I Diabetes in Comparison With Classical Time-Series Models

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to compare the performance of several commonly known machine-learning (ML) models versus a classic Autoregression with Exogenous inputs (ARX) model in the prediction of blood glucose (BG) levels using time-series data of patients with Type 1 diabetes (T1D).

METHODS

The ML algorithms include ML-based regression models and deep learning models such as a vanilla Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) Network and a Temporal Convolution Network (TCN). Evaluations have been conducted with respect to different input features, regression model orders, as well as using the recursive method or direct method for multi-step prediction of BG levels. Prediction performance metrics include the average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), temporal gain (TG) for early prediction, and the normalized energy of the second-order differences (ESOD) of the predicted time series to reflect risk of false alerts on hypo/hyper glycemia events.

RESULTS

The ARX model achieved the lowest average RMSE for both recursive and direct methods, the second highest average TG under the direct method, but with a higher average normalized ESOD than some other models.

CONCLUSION

There was no significant advantage observed from the ML models compared to the classic ARX model in predicting BG levels for T1D, except that TCN's performance was more robust with respect to BG trajectories with spurious oscillations, for which ARX tended to over-predict peak BG values and under-predict valley BG values.

SIGNIFICANCE

Insight learned from this study could help researchers and clinical practitioners to select appropriate models for BG prediction.

GluNet: A Deep Learning Framework for Accurate Glucose Forecasting

For people with Type 1 diabetes (T1D), forecasting of blood glucose (BG) can be used to effectively avoid hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia and associated complications. The latest continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology allows people to observe glucose in real-time. However, an accurate glucose forecast remains a challenge. In this work, we introduce GluNet, a framework that leverages on a personalized deep neural network to predict the probabilistic distribution of short-term (30-60 minutes) future CGM measurements for subjects with T1D based on their historical data including glucose measurements, meal information, insulin doses, and other factors. It adopts the latest deep learning techniques consisting of four components: data pre-processing, label transform/recover, multi-layers of dilated convolution neural network (CNN), and post-processing. The method is evaluated in-silico for both adult and adolescent subjects. The results show significant improvements over existing methods in the literature through a comprehensive comparison in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) ([Formula: see text] mg/dL) with short time lag ([Formula: see text] minutes) for prediction horizons (PH) = 30 mins (minutes), and RMSE ([Formula: see text] mg/dL) with time lag ([Formula: see text] mins) for PH = 60 mins for virtual adult subjects. In addition, GluNet is also tested on two clinical data sets. Results show that it achieves an RMSE ([Formula: see text] mg/dL) with time lag ([Formula: see text] mins) for PH = 30 mins and an RMSE ([Formula: see text] mg/dL) with time lag ([Formula: see text] mins) for PH = 60 mins. These are the best reported results for glucose forecasting when compared with other methods including the neural network for predicting glucose (NNPG), the support vector regression (SVR), the latent variable with exogenous input (LVX), and the auto regression with exogenous input (ARX) algorithm.

Real-Time Analysis of Potassium in Infant Formula Powder by Data-Driven Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

Potassium represents one of the most crucial minerals in infant formula that supports healthy growth and development of infants. Here, a novel strategy for the real-time quantification of potassium in infant formula samples is introduced. Using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) in a data-driven approach, a modified random frog algorithm (MRFA) is adopted in a higher-density discrete wavelet transform (HDWT) domain for the selection of the most important features related to potassium, which is named as DD-LIBS. In DD-LIBS, the HDWT oversamples the LIBS signals in both time and frequency domains by a factor of two, enhancing the spectral expandability in an approximately shift-invariant way. The MRFA is thus capable of isolating the features of potassium with experience accumulated from the collected LIBS data. Such pretreatment combined with a partial least squared (PLS) model can significantly suppress the uncontrolled shift and broadening effects on multivariate calibration, improving the capability of LIBS for accurate quantification of potassium. The present work demonstrates the feasibility of DD-LIBS for the quantification of potassium content of 90 commercial infant formula samples. A satisfactory result illustrates DD-LIBS as a feasible tool for real-time analysis of potassium content with little sample preparation. This strategy may be well extended to other element detection in the presence of uncontrolled interference.

Short-term prediction of glucose in type 1 diabetes using kernel adaptive filters

This study aims at presenting a nonlinear, recursive, multivariate prediction model of the subcutaneous glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes. Nonlinear regression is performed in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, by either the fixed budget quantized kernel least mean square (QKLMS-FB) or the approximate linear dependency kernel recursive least-squares (KRLS-ALD) algorithm, such that a sparse model structure is accomplished. A multivariate feature set (i.e., subcutaneous glucose, food carbohydrates, insulin regime and physical activity) is used and its influence on short-term glucose prediction is investigated. The method is evaluated using data from 15 patients with type 1 diabetes in free-living conditions. In the case when all the input variables are considered: (i) the average root mean squared error (RMSE) of QKLMS-FB increases from 13.1 mg dL^-1 (mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 6.6%) for a 15-min prediction horizon (PH) to 37.7 mg dL^-1 (MAPE 20.8%) for a 60-min PH and (ii) the RMSE of KRLS-ALD, being predictably lower, increases from 10.5 mg dL^-1 (MAPE 5.2%) for a 15-min PH to 31.8 mg dL^-1 (MAPE 18.0%) for a 60-min PH. Multivariate data improve systematically both the regularity and the time lag of the predictions, reducing the errors in critical glucose value regions for a PH ≥ 30 min. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

Prediction of Adverse Glycemic Events From Continuous Glucose Monitoring Signal

The most important objective of any diabetes therapy is to maintain the blood glucose concentration within the euglycemic range, avoiding or at least mitigating critical hypo/hyperglycemic episodes. Modern continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices bear the promise of providing the patients with an increased and timely awareness of glycemic conditions as these get dangerously near to hypo/hyperglycemia. The challenge is to detect, with reasonable advance, the patterns leading to risky situations, allowing the patient to make therapeutic decisions on the basis of future (predicted) glucose concentration levels. We underline that a technically sound performance comparison of the approaches proposed in recent years has yet to be done, thus it is unclear which one is preferred. The aim of this study is to fill this gap by carrying out a comparative analysis among the most common methods for glucose event prediction. Both regression and classification algorithms have been implemented and analyzed, including static and dynamic training approaches. The dataset consists of 89 CGM time series measured in diabetic subjects for 7 subsequent days. Performance metrics, specifically defined to assess and compare the event-prediction capabilities of the methods, have been introduced and analyzed. Our numerical results show that a static training approach exhibits better performance, in particular when regression methods are considered. However, classifiers show some improvement when trained for a specific event category, such as hyperglycemia, achieving performance comparable to the regressors, with the advantage of predicting the events sooner.

Self-Powered Implantable Skin-Like Glucometer for Real-Time Detection of Blood Glucose Level In Vivo

Implantable bioelectronics for analyzing physiological biomarkers has recently been recognized as a promising technique in medical treatment or diagnostics. In this study, we developed a self-powered implantable skin-like glucometer for real-time detection of blood glucose level in vivo. Based on the piezo-enzymatic-reaction coupling effect of GOx@ZnO nanowire, the device under an applied deformation can actively output piezoelectric signal containing the glucose-detecting information. No external electricity power source or battery is needed for this device, and the outputting piezoelectric voltage acts as both the biosensing signal and electricity power. A practical application of the skin-like glucometer implanted in mouse body for detecting blood glucose level has been simply demonstrated. These results provide a new technique path for diabetes prophylaxis and treatment.

Stochastic Seasonal Models for Glucose Prediction in the Artificial Pancreas

BACKGROUND

Linear empirical dynamic models have been widely used for glucose prediction. The extension of the concept of seasonality, characteristic of other domains, is explored here for the improvement of prediction accuracy.

METHODS

Twenty time series of 8-hour postprandial periods (PP) for a same 60g-carbohydrate meal were collected from a closed-loop controller validation study. A single concatenated time series was produced representing a collection of data from similar scenarios, resulting in seasonality. Variability in the resulting time series was representative of worst-case intrasubject variability. Following a leave-one-out cross-validation, seasonal and nonseasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models (SARIMA and ARIMA) were built to analyze the effect of seasonality in the model prediction accuracy. Further improvement achieved from the inclusion of insulin infusion rate as exogenous variable was also analyzed. Prediction horizons (PHs) from 30 to 300 min were considered.

RESULTS

SARIMA outperformed ARIMA revealing a significant role of seasonality. For a 5-h PH, average MAPE was reduced in 26.62%. Considering individual runs, the improvement ranged from 6.3% to 54.52%. In the best-performing case this reduction amounted to 29.45%. The benefit of seasonality was consistent among different PHs, although lower PHs benefited more, with MAPE reduction over 50% for PHs of 60 and 120 minutes, and over 40% for 180 min. Consideration of insulin infusion rate into the seasonal model further improved performance, with a 61.89% reduction in MAPE for 30-min PH and reductions over 20% for PHs over 180 min.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonality improved model accuracy allowing for the extension of the PH significantly.

Data Based Prediction of Blood Glucose Concentrations Using Evolutionary Methods

Predicting glucose values on the basis of insulin and food intakes is a difficult task that people with diabetes need to do daily. This is necessary as it is important to maintain glucose levels at appropriate values to avoid not only short-term, but also long-term complications of the illness. Artificial intelligence in general and machine learning techniques in particular have already lead to promising results in modeling and predicting glucose concentrations. In this work, several machine learning techniques are used for the modeling and prediction of glucose concentrations using as inputs the values measured by a continuous monitoring glucose system as well as also previous and estimated future carbohydrate intakes and insulin injections. In particular, we use the following four techniques: genetic programming, random forests, k-nearest neighbors, and grammatical evolution. We propose two new enhanced modeling algorithms for glucose prediction, namely (i) a variant of grammatical evolution which uses an optimized grammar, and (ii) a variant of tree-based genetic programming which uses a three-compartment model for carbohydrate and insulin dynamics. The predictors were trained and tested using data of ten patients from a public hospital in Spain. We analyze our experimental results using the Clarke error grid metric and see that 90% of the forecasts are correct (i.e., Clarke error categories A and B), but still even the best methods produce 5 to 10% of serious errors (category D) and approximately 0.5% of very serious errors (category E). We also propose an enhanced genetic programming algorithm that incorporates a three-compartment model into symbolic regression models to create smoothed time series of the original carbohydrate and insulin time series.

Chaotic time series prediction for glucose dynamics in type 1 diabetes mellitus using regime-switching models

In patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), glucose dynamics are influenced by insulin reactions, diet, lifestyle, etc., and characterized by instability and nonlinearity. With the objective of a dependable decision support system for T1DM self-management, we aim to model glucose dynamics using their nonlinear chaotic properties. A group of patients was monitored via continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors for several days under free-living conditions. We assessed the glycemic variability (GV) and chaotic properties of each time series. Time series were subsequently transformed into the phase-space and individual autoregressive (AR) models were applied to predict glucose values over 30-minute and 60-minute prediction horizons (PH). The logistic smooth transition AR (LSTAR) model provided the best prediction accuracy for patients with high GV. For a PH of 30 minutes, the average values of root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for the LSTAR model in the case of patients in the hypoglycemia range were 5.83 ( ± 1.95) mg/dL and 5.18 ( ± 1.64) mg/dL, respectively. For a PH of 60 minutes, the average values of RMSE and MAE were 7.43 ( ± 1.87) mg/dL and 6.54 ( ± 1.6) mg/dL, respectively. Without the burden of measuring exogenous information, nonlinear regime-switching AR models provided fast and accurate results for glucose prediction.

Online prediction of glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes using extreme learning machines

We propose an online machine-learning solution to the problem of nonlinear glucose time series prediction in type 1 diabetes. Recently, extreme learning machine (ELM) has been proposed for training single hidden layer feed-forward neural networks. The high accuracy and fast learning speed of ELM drive us to investigate its applicability to the glucose prediction problem. Given that diabetes self-monitoring data are received sequentially, we focus on online sequential ELM (OS-ELM) and online sequential ELM kernels (KOS-ELM). A multivariate feature set is utilized concerning subcutaneous glucose, insulin therapy, carbohydrates intake and physical activity. The dataset comes from the continuous multi-day recordings of 15 type 1 patients in free-living conditions. Assuming stationarity and evaluating the performance of the proposed method by 10-fold cross- validation, KOS-ELM were found to perform better than OS-ELM in terms of prediction error, temporal gain and regularity of predictions for a 30-min prediction horizon.

How Much Is Short-Term Glucose Prediction in Type 1 Diabetes Improved by Adding Insulin Delivery and Meal Content Information to CGM Data? A Proof-of-Concept Study

BACKGROUND

In type 1 diabetes (T1D) management, short-term glucose prediction can allow to anticipate therapeutic decisions when hypo/hyperglycemia is imminent. Literature prediction methods mainly use past continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) readings. Sophisticated algorithms can use information on insulin delivered and meal carbohydrate (CHO) content. The quantification of how much insulin and CHO information improves glucose prediction is missing in the literature and is investigated, in an open-loop setting, in this proof-of-concept study.

METHODS

We adopted a versatile literature prediction methodology able to utilize a variety of inputs. We compared predictors that use (1) CGM; (2) CGM and insulin; (3) CGM and CHO; and (4) CGM, insulin, and CHO. Data of 15 T1D subjects in open-loop setup were used. Prediction was evaluated via absolute error and temporal gain focusing on meal/night periods. The relative importance of each individual input of the predictor was evaluated with a sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

For a prediction horizon (PH) ≥ 30 minutes, insulin and CHO information improves prediction accuracy of 10% and double the temporal gain during the 2 hours following the meal. During the night the 4 methods did not give statistically different results. When PH ≥ 45 minutes, the influence of CHO information on prediction is 5-fold that of insulin.

CONCLUSIONS

In an open-loop setting, with PH ≥ 30 minutes, information on CHO and insulin improves short-term glucose prediction in the 2-hour time window following a meal, but not during the night. CHO information improves prediction significantly more than insulin.

Multi-Step Ahead Predictions for Critical Levels in Physiological Time Series

Standard modeling and evaluation methods have been classically used in analyzing engineering dynamical systems where the fundamental problem is to minimize the (mean) error between the real and predicted systems. Although these methods have been applied to multi-step ahead predictions of physiological signals, it is often more important to predict clinically relevant events than just to match these signals. Adverse clinical events, which occur after a physiological signal breaches a clinically defined critical threshold, are a popular class of such events. This paper presents a framework for multi-step ahead predictions of critical levels of abnormality in physiological signals. First, a performance metric is presented for evaluating multi-step ahead predictions. Then, this metric is used to identify personalized models optimized with respect to predictions of critical levels of abnormality. To address the paucity of adverse events, weighted support vector machines and cost-sensitive learning are used to optimize the proposed framework with respect to statistical metrics that can take into account the relative rarity of such events.

A simplification of Cobelli's glucose-insulin model for type 1 diabetes mellitus and its FPGA implementation

Cobelli's glucose-insulin model is the only computer simulator of glucose-insulin interactions accepted by Food Drug Administration as a substitute to animal trials. However, it consists of multiple differential equations that make it hard to be implemented on a hardware platform. In this investigation, the Cobelli's model is simplified by Padé approximant method and implemented on a field-programmable gate array-based platform as a hardware model for predicting glucose changes in subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Compared with the original Cobelli's model, the implemented hardware model provides a nearly perfect approximation in predicting glucose changes with rather small root-mean-square errors and maximum errors. The RMSE results for 30 subjects show that the method for simplifying and implementing Cobelli's model has good robustness and applicability. The successful hardware implementation of Cobelli's model will promote a wider adoption of this model that can substitute animal trials, provide fast and reliable glucose and insulin estimation, and ultimately assist the further development of an artificial pancreas system.

Multi-model data fusion to improve an early warning system for hypo-/hyperglycemic events

Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement.

Evaluation of short-term predictors of glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes combining feature ranking with regression models

Glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes is a function of biological and environmental factors which present high inter-patient variability. The objective of this study is to evaluate a number of features, which are extracted from medical and lifestyle self-monitoring data, with respect to their ability to predict the short-term subcutaneous (s.c.) glucose concentration of an individual. Random forests (RF) and RReliefF algorithms are first employed to rank the candidate feature set. Then, a forward selection procedure follows to build a glucose predictive model, where features are sequentially added to it in decreasing order of importance. Predictions are performed using support vector regression or Gaussian processes. The proposed method is validated on a dataset of 15 type diabetics in real-life conditions. The s.c. glucose profile along with time of the day and plasma insulin concentration are systematically highly ranked, while the effect of food intake and physical activity varies considerably among patients. Moreover, the average prediction error converges in less than d/2 iterations (d is the number of features). Our results suggest that RF and RReliefF can find the most informative features and can be successfully used to customize the input of glucose models.

Rapid model identification for online subcutaneous glucose concentration prediction for new subjects with type I diabetes

GOAL

For conventional modeling methods, the work of model identification has to be repeated with sufficient data for each subject because different subjects may have different response to exogenous inputs. This may cause repetitive cost and burden for patients and clinicians and require a lot of modeling efforts. Here, to overcome the aforementioned problems, a rapid model development strategy for new subjects is proposed using the idea of model migration for online glucose prediction.

METHODS

First, a base model is obtained that can be empirically identified from any subject or constructed by a priori knowledge. Then, parameters of inputs in the base model are properly revised based on a small amount of new data from new subjects so that the updated models can reflect the specific glucose dynamics excited by inputs for new subjects. These problems are investigated by developing autoregressive models with exogenous inputs (ARX) based on 30 in silico subjects using UVA/Padova metabolic simulator.

RESULTS

The prediction accuracy of the rapid modeling method is comparable to that for subject-dependent modeling method for some cases. Also, it can present better generalization ability.

CONCLUSION

The proposed method can be regarded as an effective and economic modeling method instead of repetitive subject-dependent modeling method especially for lack of modeling data.

Jump neural network for real-time prediction of glucose concentration

Prediction of the future value of a variable is of central importance in a wide variety of fields, including economy and finance, meteorology, informatics, and, last but not least important, medicine. For example, in the therapy of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D), in which, for patient safety, glucose concentration in the blood should be maintained in a defined normoglycemic range, the ability to forecast glucose concentration in the short-term (with a prediction horizon of around 30 min) might be sufficient to reduce the incidence of hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events. Neural Network (NN) approaches are suitable for prediction purposes because of their ability to model nonlinear dynamics and handle in their inputs signals coming from different domains. In this chapter we illustrate the design of a jump NN glucose prediction algorithm that exploits past glucose concentration data, measured in real-time by a minimally invasive continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor, and information on ingested carbohydrates, supplied by the patient himself or herself. The methodology is assessed by tuning the NN on data of ten T1D individuals and then testing it on a dataset of ten different subjects. Results with a prediction horizon of 30 min show that prediction of glucose concentration in T1D via NN is feasible and sufficiently accurate. The average time anticipation obtained is compatible with the generation of preventive hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic alerts and the improvement of artificial pancreas performance.

Multiple-Input Subject-Specific Modeling of Plasma Glucose Concentration for Feedforward Control

The ability to accurately develop subject-specific, input causation models, for blood glucose concentration (BGC) for large input sets can have a significant impact on tightening control for insulin dependent diabetes. More specifically, for Type 1 diabetics (T1Ds), it can lead to an effective artificial pancreas (i.e., an automatic control system that delivers exogenous insulin) under extreme changes in critical disturbances. These disturbances include food consumption, activity variations, and physiological stress changes. Thus, this paper presents a free-living, outpatient, multiple-input, modeling method for BGC with strong causation attributes that is stable and guards against overfitting to provide an effective modeling approach for feedforward control (FFC). This approach is a Wiener block-oriented methodology, which has unique attributes for meeting critical requirements for effective, long-term, FFC.

Effect of concurrent oxygen therapy on accuracy of forecasting imminent postoperative desaturation

Episodic postoperative desaturation occurs predominantly from respiratory depression or airway obstruction. Monitor display of desaturation is typically delayed by over 30 s after these dynamic inciting events, due to perfusion delays, signal capture and averaging. Prediction of imminent critical desaturation could aid development of dynamic high-fidelity response systems that reduce or prevent the inciting event from occurring. Oxygen therapy is known to influence the depth and duration of desaturation epochs, thereby potentially influencing the accuracy of forecasting of desaturation. In this study, postoperative pulse oximetry data were retrospectively modeled using autoregressive methods to create prediction models for [Formula: see text] and imminent critical desaturation in the postoperative period. The accuracy of these models in predicting near future [Formula: see text] values was tested using root mean square error. The model accuracy for prediction of critical desaturation ([Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]) was evaluated using meta-analytical methods (sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratios and area under summary receiver operating characteristic curves). Between-study heterogeneity was used as a measure of reliability of the model across different patients and evaluated using the tau-squared statistic. Model performance was evaluated in [Formula: see text] patients who received postoperative oxygen supplementation and [Formula: see text] patients who did not receive oxygen. Our results show that model accuracy was high with root mean square errors between 0.2 and 2.8%. Prediction accuracy as defined by area under the curve for critical desaturation events was observed to be greater in patients receiving oxygen in the 60-s horizon ([Formula: see text] vs. [Formula: see text]). This was likely related to the higher frequency of events in this group (median [IQR] [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]) than patients who were not treated with oxygen ([Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text]). Model reliability was reflected by the homogeneity of the prediction models which were homogenous across both prediction horizons and oxygen treatment groups. In conclusion, we report the use of autoregressive models to predict [Formula: see text] and forecast imminent critical desaturation events in the postoperative period with high degree of accuracy. These models reliably predict critical desaturation in patients receiving supplemental oxygen therapy. While high-fidelity prophylactic interventions that could modify these inciting events are in development, our current study offers proof of concept that the afferent limb of such a system can be modeled with a high degree of accuracy.

Evaluating predictions of critical oxygen desaturation events

This paper presents a new approach for evaluating predictions of oxygen saturation levels in blood ( SpO2). A performance metric based on a threshold is proposed to evaluate  SpO2 predictions based on whether or not they are able to capture critical desaturations in the  SpO2 time series of patients. We use linear auto-regressive models built using historical  SpO2 data to predict critical desaturation events with the proposed metric. In 20 s prediction intervals, 88%-94% of the critical events were captured with positive predictive values (PPVs) between 90% and 99%. Increasing the prediction horizon to 60 s, 46%-71% of the critical events were detected with PPVs between 81% and 97%. In both prediction horizons, more than 97% of the non-critical events were correctly classified. The overall classification capabilities for the developed predictive models were also investigated. The area under ROC curves for 60 s predictions from the developed models are between 0.86 and 0.98. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of including pulse rate (PR) dynamics in the models and predictions. We show no improvement in the percentage of the predicted critical desaturations if PR dynamics are incorporated into the  SpO2 predictive models (p-value = 0.814). We also show that including the PR dynamics does not improve the earliest time at which critical  SpO2 levels are predicted (p-value = 0.986). Our results indicate oxygen in blood is an effective input to the PR rather than vice versa. We demonstrate that the combination of predictive models with frequent pulse oximetry measurements can be used as a warning of critical oxygen desaturations that may have adverse effects on the health of patients.

Personalized State-space Modeling of Glucose Dynamics for Type 1 Diabetes Using Continuously Monitored Glucose, Insulin Dose, and Meal Intake: An Extended Kalman Filter Approach

An essential component of any artificial pancreas is on the prediction of blood glucose levels as a function of exogenous and endogenous perturbations such as insulin dose, meal intake, and physical activity and emotional tone under natural living conditions. In this article, we present a new data-driven state-space dynamic model with time-varying coefficients that are used to explicitly quantify the time-varying patient-specific effects of insulin dose and meal intake on blood glucose fluctuations. Using the 3-variate time series of glucose level, insulin dose, and meal intake of an individual type 1 diabetic subject, we apply an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to estimate time-varying coefficients of the patient-specific state-space model. We evaluate our empirical modeling using (1) the FDA-approved UVa/Padova simulator with 30 virtual patients and (2) clinical data of 5 type 1 diabetic patients under natural living conditions. Compared to a forgetting-factor-based recursive ARX model of the same order, the EKF model predictions have higher fit, and significantly better temporal gain and J index and thus are superior in early detection of upward and downward trends in glucose. The EKF based state-space model developed in this article is particularly suitable for model-based state-feedback control designs since the Kalman filter estimates the state variable of the glucose dynamics based on the measured glucose time series. In addition, since the model parameters are estimated in real time, this model is also suitable for adaptive control.

A novel adaptive-weighted-average framework for blood glucose prediction

BACKGROUND

Blood glucose (BG) prediction plays a very important role in daily BG management of patients with diabetes mellitus. Several algorithms, such as autoregressive (AR) models and artificial neural networks, have been proposed for BG prediction. However, every algorithm has its own subject range (i.e., one algorithm might work well for one diabetes patient but poorly for another patient). Even for one individual patient, this algorithm might perform well during the preprandial period but poorly during the postprandial period.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A novel framework was proposed to combine several BG prediction algorithms. The main idea of the novel framework is that an adaptive weight is given to each algorithm where one algorithm's weight is inversely proportional to the sum of the squared prediction errors. In general, this framework can be applied to combine any BG prediction algorithms.

RESULTS

As an example, the proposed framework was used to combine an AR model, extreme learning machine, and support vector regression. The new algorithm was compared with these three prediction algorithms on the continuous glucose monitoring system (CGMS) readings of 10 type 1 diabetes mellitus patients; the CGMS readings of each patient included 860 CGMS data points. For each patient, the algorithms were evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error, relative error, Clarke error-grid analysis, and J index. Of the 40 evaluations, the new adaptive-weighted algorithm achieved the best prediction performance in 37 (92.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Thus, we conclude that the adaptive-weighted-average framework proposed in this study can give satisfactory predictions and should be used in BG prediction. The new algorithm has great robustness with respect to variations in data characteristics, patients, and prediction horizons. At the same time, it is universal.

Signal processing algorithms implementing the "smart sensor" concept to improve continuous glucose monitoring in diabetes

Glucose readings provided by current continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices still suffer from accuracy and precision issues. In April 2013, we proposed a new conceptual architecture to deal with these problems and render CGM sensors algorithmically smarter, which consists of three modules for denoising, enhancement, and prediction placed in cascade to a commercial CGM sensor. The architecture was assessed on a data set consisting of 24 type 1 diabetes patients collected in four clinical centers of the AP@home Consortium (a European project of 7th Framework Programme funded by the European Committee). This article, as a companion to our prior publication, illustrates the technical details of the algorithms and of the implementation issues.

A glucose model based on support vector regression for the prediction of hypoglycemic events under free-living conditions

BACKGROUND

The prevention of hypoglycemic events is of paramount importance in the daily management of insulin-treated diabetes. The use of short-term prediction algorithms of the subcutaneous (s.c.) glucose concentration may contribute significantly toward this direction. The literature suggests that, although the recent glucose profile is a prominent predictor of hypoglycemia, the overall patient's context greatly impacts its accurate estimation. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of a support vector for regression (SVR) s.c. glucose method on hypoglycemia prediction.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We extend our SVR model to predict separately the nocturnal events during sleep and the non-nocturnal (i.e., diurnal) ones over 30-min and 60-min horizons using information on recent glucose profile, meals, insulin intake, and physical activities for a hypoglycemic threshold of 70 mg/dL. We also introduce herein additional variables accounting for recurrent nocturnal hypoglycemia due to antecedent hypoglycemia, exercise, and sleep. SVR predictions are compared with those from two other machine learning techniques.

RESULTS

The method is assessed on a dataset of 15 patients with type 1 diabetes under free-living conditions. Nocturnal hypoglycemic events are predicted with 94% sensitivity for both horizons and with time lags of 5.43 min and 4.57 min, respectively. As concerns the diurnal events, when physical activities are not considered, the sensitivity is 92% and 96% for a 30-min and 60-min horizon, respectively, with both time lags being less than 5 min. However, when such information is introduced, the diurnal sensitivity decreases by 8% and 3%, respectively. Both nocturnal and diurnal predictions show a high (>90%) precision.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that hypoglycemia prediction using SVR can be accurate and performs better in most diurnal and nocturnal cases compared with other techniques. It is advised that the problem of hypoglycemia prediction should be handled differently for nocturnal and diurnal periods as regards input variables and interpretation of results.

Characterisation of linear predictability and non-stationarity of subcutaneous glucose profiles

Continuous glucose monitoring is increasingly used in the management of diabetes. Subcutaneous glucose profiles are characterised by a strong non-stationarity, which limits the application of correlation-spectral analysis. We derived an index of linear predictability by calculating the autocorrelation function of time series increments and applied detrended fluctuation analysis to assess the non-stationarity of the profiles. Time series from volunteers with both type 1 and type 2 diabetes and from control subjects were analysed. The results suggest that in control subjects, blood glucose variation is relatively uncorrelated, and this variation could be modelled as a random walk with no retention of 'memory' of previous values. In diabetes, variation is both greater and smoother, with retention of inter-dependence between neighbouring values. Essential components for adequate longer term prediction were identified via a decomposition of time series into a slow trend and responses to external stimuli. Implications for diabetes management are discussed.

An early warning system for hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events based on fusion of adaptive prediction models

INTRODUCTION

Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia/hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy.

METHODS

The EWS is based on the combination of data-driven online adaptive prediction models and a warning algorithm. Three modeling approaches have been investigated: (i) autoregressive (ARX) models, (ii) auto-regressive with an output correction module (cARX) models, and (iii) recurrent neural network (RNN) models. The warning algorithm performs postprocessing of the models' outputs and issues alerts if upcoming hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events are detected. Fusion of the cARX and RNN models, due to their complementary prediction performances, resulted in the hybrid autoregressive with an output correction module/recurrent neural network (cARN)-based EWS.

RESULTS

The EWS was evaluated on 23 T1DM patients under SAP therapy. The ARX-based system achieved hypoglycemic (hyperglycemic) event prediction with median values of accuracy of 100.0% (100.0%), detection time of 10.0 (8.0) min, and daily false alarms of 0.7 (0.5). The respective values for the cARX-based system were 100.0% (100.0%), 17.5 (14.8) min, and 1.5 (1.3) and, for the RNN-based system, were 100.0% (92.0%), 8.4 (7.0) min, and 0.1 (0.2). The hybrid cARN-based EWS presented outperforming results with 100.0% (100.0%) prediction accuracy, detection 16.7 (14.7) min in advance, and 0.8 (0.8) daily false alarms.

CONCLUSION

Combined use of cARX and RNN models for the development of an EWS outperformed the single use of each model, achieving accurate and prompt event prediction with few false alarms, thus providing increased safety and comfort.

Real-time improvement of continuous glucose monitoring accuracy: the smart sensor concept

OBJECTIVE

Reliability of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors is key in several applications. In this work we demonstrate that real-time algorithms can render CGM sensors smarter by reducing their uncertainty and inaccuracy and improving their ability to alert for hypo- and hyperglycemic events.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The smart CGM (sCGM) sensor concept consists of a commercial CGM sensor whose output enters three software modules, able to work in real time, for denoising, enhancement, and prediction. These three software modules were recently presented in the CGM literature, and here we apply them to the Dexcom SEVEN Plus continuous glucose monitor. We assessed the performance of the sCGM on data collected in two trials, each containing 12 patients with type 1 diabetes.

RESULTS

The denoising module improves the smoothness of the CGM time series by an average of ∼57%, the enhancement module reduces the mean absolute relative difference from 15.1 to 10.3%, increases by 12.6% the pairs of values falling in the A-zone of the Clarke error grid, and finally, the prediction module forecasts hypo- and hyperglycemic events an average of 14 min ahead of time.

CONCLUSIONS

We have introduced and implemented the sCGM sensor concept. Analysis of data from 24 patients demonstrates that incorporation of suitable real-time signal processing algorithms for denoising, enhancement, and prediction can significantly improve the performance of CGM applications. This can be of great clinical impact for hypo- and hyperglycemic alert generation as well in artificial pancreas devices.

Reduction of number and duration of hypoglycemic events by glucose prediction methods: a proof-of-concept in silico study

BACKGROUND

Hypoglycemia prevention is one of the major challenges in diabetes research. Recently, it has been suggested that continuous glucose monitoring (CGM)-based short-term glucose prediction algorithms could be exploited to generate alerts when hypoglycemia is forecasted, allowing the patient to take appropriate countermeasures to avoid/mitigate the event. However, quantifying the potential benefits of prediction in terms of reduction of number/duration of hypoglycemia requires an in silico assessment that is the object of the present article.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data for 50 virtual subjects were generated by using the University of Virginia/Padova type 1 diabetes simulator (54-h monitoring), made more credible by adding realistic measurement noise and perturbations of meals and insulin injections. CGM was assumed to be well calibrated. Occurrence and duration of hypoglycemic events were compared in three scenarios: (1) hypoglycemia was not recognized and not dealt with; (2) 15 g of carbohydrates was ingested when CGM crossed the hypoglycemia threshold; or (3) 15 g of carbohydrates was ingested when the 30-min ahead-of-time CGM prediction crossed the hypoglycemia threshold. The effectiveness of alerts was investigated also in the case of delayed/absent ingestion of carbohydrates.

RESULTS

In Scenario 1, each virtual subject spent 17.7% of the time in the hypoglycemic range, with a median of four events of 120 min in the 54-h period monitored. In Scenario 2, the time spent in hypoglycemia was reduced to 4.7% (four events of 40 min). In Scenario 3, the time spent in hypoglycemia was further reduced to 1.2% (one event of 15 min). Absent/delayed patient's responses to alerts slightly increase these percentages, but improvements remain significant.

CONCLUSIONS

This in silico proof-of-concept study demonstrates that using predicted rather than measured CGM allows a significant reduction of the number of hypoglycemic events and the time spent in hypoglycemic range both by 75%, stimulating further research and clinical investigation on the generation of preventive hypoglycemic alerts exploiting glucose prediction methods.

Diabetes technology: markers, monitoring, assessment, and control of blood glucose fluctuations in diabetes

People with diabetes face a life-long optimization problem: to maintain strict glycemic control without increasing their risk for hypoglycemia. Since the discovery of insulin in 1921, the external regulation of diabetes by engineering means has became a hallmark of this optimization. Diabetes technology has progressed remarkably over the past 50 years-a progress that includes the development of markers for diabetes control, sophisticated monitoring techniques, mathematical models, assessment procedures, and control algorithms. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) was introduced in 1999 and has evolved from means for retroactive review of blood glucose profiles to versatile reliable devices, which monitor the course of glucose fluctuations in real time and provide interactive feedback to the patient. Technology integrating CGM with insulin pumps is now available, opening the field for automated closed-loop control, known as the artificial pancreas. Following a number of in-clinic trials, the quest for a wearable ambulatory artificial pancreas is under way, with a first prototype tested in outpatient setting during the past year. This paper discusses key milestones of diabetes technology development, focusing on the progress in the past 10 years and on the artificial pancreas-still not a cure, but arguably the most promising treatment of diabetes to date.

Italian contributions to the development of continuous glucose monitoring sensors for diabetes management

Monitoring glucose concentration in the blood is essential in the therapy of diabetes, a pathology which affects about 350 million people around the World (three million in Italy), causes more than four million deaths per year and consumes a significant portion of the budget of national health systems (10% in Italy). In the last 15 years, several sensors with different degree of invasiveness have been proposed to monitor glycemia in a quasi-continuous way (up to 1 sample/min rate) for relatively long intervals (up to 7 consecutive days). These continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors have opened new scenarios to assess, off-line, the effectiveness of individual patient therapeutic plans from the retrospective analysis of glucose time-series, but have also stimulated the development of innovative on-line applications, such as hypo/hyper-glycemia alert systems and artificial pancreas closed-loop control algorithms. In this review, we illustrate some significant Italian contributions, both from industry and academia, to the growth of the CGM sensors research area. In particular, technological, algorithmic and clinical developments performed in Italy will be discussed and put in relation with the advances obtained in the field in the wider international research community.

Multivariate prediction of subcutaneous glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes patients based on support vector regression

Data-driven techniques have recently drawn significant interest in the predictive modeling of subcutaneous (s.c.) glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes. In this study, the s.c. glucose prediction is treated as a multivariate regression problem, which is addressed using support vector regression (SVR). The proposed method is based on variables concerning: (i) the s.c. glucose profile, (ii) the plasma insulin concentration, (iii) the appearance of meal-derived glucose in the systemic circulation, and (iv) the energy expenditure during physical activities. Six cases corresponding to different combinations of the aforementioned variables are used to investigate the influence of the input on the daily glucose prediction. The proposed method is evaluated using a dataset of 27 patients in free-living conditions. 10-fold cross validation is applied to each dataset individually to both optimize and test the SVR model. In the case where all the input variables are considered, the average prediction errors are 5.21, 6.03, 7.14 and 7.62 mg/dl for 15, 30, 60 and 120 min prediction horizons, respectively. The results clearly indicate that the availability of multivariable data and their effective combination can significantly increase the accuracy of both short-term and long-term predictions.