Demographic responses of a site-faithful and territorial predator to its fluctuating prey: long-tailed skuas and arctic lemmings

Oxidative physiology of two small and highly migratory Arctic seabirds: Arctic terns (Sterna paradisaea) and long-tailed jaegers (Stercorarius longicaudus)

Arctic ecosystems are changing rapidly. The tundra supports nesting migratory seabirds that spend most of their year over the ocean. Migrations are demanding, but it is unclear how physiological capability may equip organisms to respond to their changing environments. For two migratory seabird species nesting in Alaska, USA, the Arctic tern (n = 10) and the long-tailed jaeger (n = 8), we compared oxidative physiology and aerobic capacity measured during incubation and we recorded individual movement paths using electronic tracking tags. Within species, we hypothesized that individuals with longer-distance migrations would show higher oxidative stress and display better aerobic capacity than shorter-distance migrants. We examined blood parameters relative to subsequent fall migration in jaegers and relative to previous spring migration in terns. We present the first measurements of oxidative stress in these species and the first migratory movements of long-tailed jaegers in the Pacific Ocean. Arctic terns displayed positive correlation of oxidative variables, or better integration than jaegers. Relative to physiological sampling, pre-breeding northward migration data were available for terns and post-breeding southward data were available for jaegers. Terns reached a farther maximum distance from the colony than jaegers (16 199 ± 275 km versus 10 947 ± 950 km) and rate of travel northward (447 ± 41.8 km/day) was positively correlated with hematocrit, but we found no other relationships. In jaegers, there were no relationships between individuals' physiology and southward rate of travel (193 ± 52.3 km/day) or migratory distance. While it is not clear whether the much longer migrations of the terns is related to their better integration, or to another factor, our results spark hypotheses that could be evaluated through a controlled phylogenetic study. Species with better integration may be less susceptible to environmental factors that increase oxidative stress, including thermal challenges or changes in prey distribution as the Arctic climate changes rapidly.

Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for-particularly small-populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long‐term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long‐run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Snow mediates climatic impacts on Arctic herbivore populations

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to impacts of climate change; however, the complex relationships between climate and ecosystems make incorporating effects of climate change into population management difficult. This study used structural equation modelling (SEM) and a 24-year multifaceted monitoring data series collected at Zackenberg, North-East Greenland, to untangle the network of climatic and local abiotic and biotic drivers, determining their direct and indirect effects on two herbivores: musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) and collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus). Snow conditions were determined to be the central driver within the system, mediating the effects of climate on herbivore abundance. Under current climate change projections, snow is expected to decrease in the region. Snow had an indirect negative effect on musk ox, as decreased snow depth led to an earlier start to the Arctic willow growing season, shown to increase fecundity and decrease mortality. Musk ox are therefore expected to be more successful under future conditions, within a certain threshold. Snow had both positive and negative effects on lemming, with lemming expected to ultimately be less successful under climate change, as reduction in snow increases their vulnerability to predation. Through their capacity to determine effects of climatic and local drivers within a hierarchy, and the relative strength and direction of these effects, SEMs were demonstrated to have the potential to be valuable in guiding population management.

A nomadic avian predator displays flexibility in prey choice during episodic outbreaks of rodents in arid Australia

In environments driven by unpredictable resource pulses, populations of many consumer species experience dramatic fluctuations in abundance and spatial extent. Predator-prey relationships in these acyclic systems are poorly understood in particular with respect to the level of prey specialisation shown by nomadic predators. To understand the dynamics of such a system I examined the response to rodent outbreaks by the letter-winged kite (Elanus scriptus) in the Simpson Desert, Australia; a region that experiences major pulses in primary productivity, driven by unpredictable rainfall events. The kite feeds on small mammals and is the only night-hunting species in the Accipitridae. Letter-winged kites irrupted in the area on only three occasions during 20 years of sampling (1999-2019) and remained for a maximum of 20 months. Each period of kite occupation occurred only during the increase and/or peak phase of rodent population cycles (which occurred three times during the study). During each period kite diet was dominated by small (10-50 g body mass) quadrupedal rodents (Pseudomys australis, P. hermannsburgensis, Mus musculus). Abundance of these species varied across the three outbreaks and kites typically captured them in proportion to availability. The large body mass (134 g) long-haired rat (Rattus villosissimus) was abundant during one outbreak but was infrequently consumed. The bipedal spinifex hopping-mouse (Notomys alexis) was within the kites' favoured prey size range (35 g) but was consistently avoided. The flexibility in prey selection by letter-winged kites appears to be an important adaptation for survival and reproduction by species exploiting acyclic rodent outbreaks.

Demographic modeling to fine-tune conservation targets: importance of pre-adults for the decline of an endangered raptor

Large, long-lived species with slow life histories and protracted pre-breeding stages are particularly susceptible to declines and extinction, often for unknown causes. Here, we show how demographic modeling of a medium-sized raptor, the Red Kite Milvus milvus, can aid to refocus conservation research and attention on the most likely mechanisms driving its decline. Red Kites' survival and reproduction increased through three sequential stages for 1-2, 3-6, and 7-30 yr of age, mainly corresponding to individuals that are dispersing, attempting to gain a territory, and breeding. As typical of long-lived species, elasticities were highest for adult (≥7 yr old) survival, but this was high, with little scope for improvement. Instead, the declines were driven by an extremely low survival of pre-adults in their first years of life, which weakened the whole demographic system by nullifying the offspring contribution of adults and curtailing their replacement by recruits. For example, 27 pairs were necessary to generate a single prime age adult. Simulation of management scenarios suggested that the decline could be halted most parsimoniously by increasing pre-adult survival to the mean levels recorded for other areas, while only the synergistic, simultaneous improvement of breeding success, adult and pre-adult survival could generate a recovery. We propose three actions to attain such goals through selective supplementary feeding of both breeding and non-breeding individuals, and through mortality improvement by GPS remote-sensing devices employed as surveillance monitoring tools. Our results show how improving demographic models by using real, local vital rates rather than "best guess" vital rates can dramatically improve model realism by refocusing attention on the actual stages and mortality causes in need of manipulation, thus building precious time and resources for conservation management. These results also highlight the frequent key role of pre-adult survival for the management of long-lived species, coherent with the idea of demographic systems as integrated chains only as strong as their weakest link.

An ecosystem-wide reproductive failure with more snow in the Arctic

2018: Arctic researchers have just witnessed another extreme summer—but in a new sense of the word. Although public interest has long been focused on general warming trends and trends towards a lower sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, this summer saw the realization of another predicted trend: that of increasing precipitation during the winter months and of increased year-to-year variability. In a well-studied ecosystem in Northeast Greenland, this resulted in the most complete reproductive failure encountered in the terrestrial ecosystem during more than two decades of monitoring: only a few animals and plants were able to reproduce because of abundant and late melting snow. These observations, we suggest, should open our eyes to potentially drastic consequences of predicted changes in both the mean and the variability of arctic climate.

In summer 2018, many arctic regions experienced unprecedented large amounts of snow. This Perspective article reports the ecological impacts of this extreme event, and shows that the severe snow conditions resulted in an almost complete reproductive failure across the entire ecosystem. The 2018 may be a rare event, but it also offers a gloomy peep into the future.

Predator-prey feedback in a gyrfalcon-ptarmigan system?

Specialist predators with oscillating dynamics are often strongly affected by the population dynamics of their prey, yet they are not always the cause of prey cycling. Only those that exert strong (delayed) regulation of their prey can be. Inferring predator-prey coupling from time series therefore requires contrasting models with top-down versus bottom-up predator-prey dynamics. We study here the joint dynamics of population densities of the Icelandic gyrfalcon Falco rusticolus, and its prey, the rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta. The dynamics of both species are likely not only linked to each other but also to stochastic weather variables acting as confounding factors. We infer the degree of coupling between populations, as well as forcing by abiotic variables, using multivariate autoregressive models MAR(p), with p = 1 and 2 time lags. MAR(2) models, allowing for species to cycle independently from each other, further suggest alternative scenarios where a cyclic prey influences its predator but not the other way around (i.e., bottom-up scenarios). The classical MAR(1) model predicts that the time series exhibit predator-prey feedback (i.e., reciprocal dynamic influence between prey and predator), and that weather effects are weak and only affecting the gyrfalcon population. Bottom-up MAR(2) models produced a better fit but less realistic cross-correlation patterns. Simulations of MAR(1) and MAR(2) models further demonstrate that the top-down MAR(1) models are more likely to be misidentified as bottom-up dynamics than vice versa. We therefore conclude that predator-prey feedback in the gyrfalcon-ptarmigan system is likely the main cause of observed oscillations, though bottom-up dynamics cannot yet be excluded with certainty. Overall, we showed how to make more out of ecological time series by using simulations to gauge the quality of model identification, and paved the way for more mechanistic modeling of this system by narrowing the set of important biotic and abiotic drivers.

Population response of an apex Antarctic consumer to its prey and climate fluctuations

A fundamental endeavor in population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics. A few empirical studies included the effect of prey abundance when investigating simultaneously the effects of density-dependence and climate factors on marine top-predator population dynamics. Our aim was to unravel the mechanisms forcing population dynamics of an apex consumer seabird, the south polar skua, using long-term climatic and population time series of the consumer and its prey in Terre Adélie, Antarctica. Influences of density-dependence, climatic factors, and prey abundance with lag effects were tested on the breeding population dynamics with a Bayesian multi-model inference approach. We evidenced a negative trend in breeding population growth rate when density increased. Lagged effects of sea-ice concentration and air temperature in spring and a contemporary effect of prey resources were supported. Remarkably, results outline a reverse response of the south polar skua and one of its main preys to the same environmental factor (sea-ice concentration), suggesting a strong link between skua and penguin dynamics. The causal mechanisms may involve competition for food and space through territorial behavior as well as local climate and prey availability, which probably operate on breeding parameters (breeding propensity, breeding success, or recruitment) rather than on adult survival. Our results provide new insights on the relative importance of factors forcing the population dynamics of an apex consumer including density-dependence, local climate conditions, and direct and indirect effects of prey abundance.

Quantifying the demographic cost of human-related mortality to a raptor population

Raptors are exposed to a wide variety of human-related mortality agents, and yet population-level effects are rarely quantified. Doing so requires modeling vital rates in the context of species life-history, behavior, and population dynamics theory. In this paper, we explore the details of such an analysis by focusing on the demography of a resident, tree-nesting population of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the vicinity of an extensive (142 km²) windfarm in California. During 1994–2000, we tracked the fates of >250 radio-marked individuals of four life-stages and conducted five annual surveys of territory occupancy and reproduction. Collisions with wind turbines accounted for 41% of 88 uncensored fatalities, most of which were subadults and nonbreeding adults (floaters). A consistent overall male preponderance in the population meant that females were the limiting sex in this territorial, monogamous species. Estimates of potential population growth rate and associated variance indicated a stable breeding population, but one for which any further decrease in vital rates would require immigrant floaters to fill territory vacancies. Occupancy surveys 5 and 13 years later (2005 and 2013) showed that the nesting population remained intact, and no upward trend was apparent in the proportion of subadult eagles as pair members, a condition that would have suggested a deficit of adult replacements. However, the number of golden eagle pairs required to support windfarm mortality was large. We estimated that the entire annual reproductive output of 216–255 breeding pairs would have been necessary to support published estimates of 55–65 turbine blade-strike fatalities per year. Although the vital rates forming the basis for these calculations may have changed since the data were collected, our approach should be useful for gaining a clearer understanding of how anthropogenic mortality affects the health of raptor populations, particularly those species with delayed maturity and naturally low reproductive rates.

Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems: Determinants of arctic change?

How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how they vary in time, and how they are changing with current environmental change: firstly, the high arctic interaction webs are much more complex than previously envisaged, and with a structure mainly dictated by its arthropod component. Secondly, the dynamics of species within these webs reflect changes in environmental conditions. Thirdly, biotic interactions within a trophic level may affect other trophic levels, in some cases ultimately affecting land-atmosphere feedbacks. Finally, differential responses to environmental change may decouple interacting species. These insights form Zackenberg emphasize that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems.

COMADRE: a global data base of animal demography

The open‐data scientific philosophy is being widely adopted and proving to promote considerable progress in ecology and evolution. Open‐data global data bases now exist on animal migration, species distribution, conservation status, etc. However, a gap exists for data on population dynamics spanning the rich diversity of the animal kingdom world‐wide. This information is fundamental to our understanding of the conditions that have shaped variation in animal life histories and their relationships with the environment, as well as the determinants of invasion and extinction.

Matrix population models (MPMs) are among the most widely used demographic tools by animal ecologists. MPMs project population dynamics based on the reproduction, survival and development of individuals in a population over their life cycle. The outputs from MPMs have direct biological interpretations, facilitating comparisons among animal species as different as Caenorhabditis elegans, Loxodonta africana and Homo sapiens.

Thousands of animal demographic records exist in the form of MPMs, but they are dispersed throughout the literature, rendering comparative analyses difficult. Here, we introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, an open‐data online repository, which in its version 1.0.0 contains data on 345 species world‐wide, from 402 studies with a total of 1625 population projection matrices. COMADRE also contains ancillary information (e.g. ecoregion, taxonomy, biogeography, etc.) that facilitates interpretation of the numerous demographic metrics that can be derived from its MPMs. We provide R code to some of these examples.

Synthesis: We introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, a resource for animal demography. Its open‐data nature, together with its ancillary information, will facilitate comparative analysis, as will the growing availability of databases focusing on other aspects of the rich animal diversity, and tools to query and combine them. Through future frequent updates of COMADRE, and its integration with other online resources, we encourage animal ecologists to tackle global ecological and evolutionary questions with unprecedented sample size.

Barn Owl Productivity Response to Variability of Vole Populations

We studied the response of the barn owl annual productivity to the common vole population numbers and variability to test the effects of environmental stochasticity on their life histories. Current theory predicts that temporal environmental variability can affect long-term nonlinear responses (e.g., production of young) both positively and negatively, depending on the shape of the relationship between the response and environmental variables. At the level of the Czech Republic, we examined the shape of the relationship between the annual sum of fledglings (annual productivity) and vole numbers in both non-detrended and detrended data. At the districts’ level, we explored whether the degree of synchrony (measured by the correlation coefficient) and the strength of the productivity response increase (measured by the regression coefficient) in areas with higher vole population variability measured by the s-index. We found that the owls’ annual productivity increased linearly with vole numbers in the Czech Republic. Furthermore, based on district data, we also found that synchrony between dynamics in owls’ reproductive output and vole numbers increased with vole population variability. However, the strength of the response was not affected by the vole population variability. Additionally, we have shown that detrending remarkably increases the Taylor’s exponent b relating variance to mean in vole time series, thereby reversing the relationship between the coefficient of variation and the mean. This shift was not responsible for the increased synchrony with vole population variability. Instead, we suggest that higher synchrony could result from high food specialization of owls on the common vole in areas with highly fluctuating vole populations.

Indirect effects of primary prey population dynamics on alternative prey

We develop a theory of generalist predation showing how alternative prey species are affected by changes in both mean abundance and variability (coefficient of variation) of their predator's primary prey. The theory is motivated by the indirect effects of cyclic rodent populations on ground-breeding birds, and developed through progressive analytic simplifications of an empirically-based model. It applies nonetheless to many other systems where primary prey have fast life-histories and can become superabundant, thus facilitating impact on alternative prey species and generating highly asymmetric interactions. Our results suggest that predator effects on alternative prey should generally decrease with mean primary prey abundance, and increase with primary prey variability (low to high CV)-unless predators have strong aggregative responses, in which case these results can be reversed. Approximations of models including predator dynamics (general numerical response with possible delays) confirm these results but further suggest that negative temporal correlation between predator and primary prey is harmful to alternative prey. Finally, we find that measurements of predator numerical responses are crucial to predict-even qualitatively-the response of ecosystems to changes in the dynamics of outbreaking prey species.

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.