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Summers J, Cosgrove EJ, Bowman R, Fitzpatrick JW, Chen N. Impacts of increasing isolation and environmental variation on Florida Scrub-Jay demography. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2024:2024.01.10.575127. [PMID: 38260596 PMCID: PMC10802623 DOI: 10.1101/2024.01.10.575127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
Isolation caused by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation can destabilize populations. Populations relying on the inflow of immigrants can face reduced fitness due to inbreeding depression as fewer new individuals arrive. Empirical studies of the demographic consequences of isolation are critical to understand how populations persist through changing conditions. We used a 34-year demographic and environmental dataset from a population of cooperatively-breeding Florida Scrub-Jays ( Aphelocoma coerulescens ) to create mechanistic models linking environmental and demographic factors to population growth rates. We found that the population has not declined despite both declining immigration and increasing inbreeding, owing to a coinciding response in breeder survival. We find evidence of density-dependent immigration, breeder survival, and fecundity, indicating that interactions between vital rates and local density play a role in buffering the population against change. Our study elucidates the impacts of isolation on demography and how long-term stability is maintained via demographic responses.
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Wilson KL, Sawyer AC, Potapova A, Bailey CJ, LoScerbo D, Sweeney-Bergen EK, Hodgson EE, Pitman KJ, Seitz KM, Law LK, Warkentin L, Wilson SM, Atlas WI, Braun DC, Sloat MR, Tinker MT, Moore JW. The role of spatial structure in at-risk metapopulation recoveries. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2898. [PMID: 37303288 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2898] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2022] [Revised: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Metapopulations are often managed as a single contiguous population despite the spatial structure underlying their local and regional dynamics. Disturbances from human activities can also be spatially structured with mortality impacts concentrated to just a few local populations among the aggregate. Scale transitions between local and regional processes can generate emergent properties whereby the whole system can fail to recover as quickly as expected for an equivalent single population. Here, we draw on theory and empirical case studies to ask: what is the consequence of spatially structured ecological and disturbance processes on metapopulation recoveries? We suggest that exploring this question could help address knowledge gaps for managing metapopulations including: Why do some metapopulations recover quickly while others remain collapsed? And, what risks are unaccounted for when metapopulations are managed at aggregate scales? First, we used model simulations to examine how scale transitions among ecological and disturbance conditions interact to generate emergent metapopulation recovery outcomes. In general, we found that the spatial structure of disturbance was a strong determinant of recovery outcomes. Specifically, disturbances that unevenly impacted local populations consistently generated the slowest recoveries and highest conservation risks. Ecological conditions that dampened metapopulation recoveries included low dispersal, variable local demography, sparsely connected habitat networks, and spatially and temporally correlated stochastic processes. Second, we illustrate the unexpected challenges of managing metapopulations by examining the recoveries of three USA federally listed endangered species: Florida Everglade snail kites, California and Alaska sea otters, and Snake River Chinook salmon. Overall, our results show the pivotal role of spatial structure in metapopulation recoveries whereby the interplay between local and regional processes shapes the resilience of the whole system. With this understanding, we provide guidelines for resource managers tasked with conserving and managing metapopulations and identify opportunities for research to support the application of metapopulation theory to real-world challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyle L Wilson
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
- Central Coast Indigenous Resource Alliance, Campbell River, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Alexandra C Sawyer
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Anna Potapova
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Colin J Bailey
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Daniella LoScerbo
- Cooperative Resource Management Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, School of Resource & Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Elissa K Sweeney-Bergen
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Emma E Hodgson
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Kara J Pitman
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Karl M Seitz
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lauren K Law
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Luke Warkentin
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Samantha M Wilson
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - William I Atlas
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Douglas C Braun
- Cooperative Resource Management Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, School of Resource & Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | - M Tim Tinker
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Jonathan W Moore
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
- Cooperative Resource Management Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, School of Resource & Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
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Benscoter AM, D'Acunto LE, Haider SM, Fletcher RJ, Romañach SS. Nest‐site selection model for endangered Everglade snail kites to inform ecosystem restoration. Ecosphere 2023. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4362] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Laura E. D'Acunto
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center Davie Florida USA
| | - Saira M. Haider
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center Davie Florida USA
| | - Robert J. Fletcher
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation University of Florida Gainesville Florida USA
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Nater CR, Burgess MD, Coffey P, Harris B, Lander F, Price D, Reed M, Robinson RA. Spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird. J Anim Ecol 2023; 92:97-111. [PMID: 36321197 PMCID: PMC10099983 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modelling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34-64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structure to changes in short- and long-term population growth rate using transient life table response experiments (LTREs). Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or nonbreeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period. We show that both short- and long-term population changes of British breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in nonbreeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chloé R Nater
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim, Norway.,Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
| | - Malcolm D Burgess
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Sandy, UK.,PiedFly.Net, Yarner Wood, Devon, UK.,Centre for Research in Animal Behaviour, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | | | - Bob Harris
- Merseyside Ringing Group, Merseyside, UK
| | - Frank Lander
- PiedFly.Net, Yarner Wood, Devon, UK.,Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire, UK
| | | | - Mike Reed
- 143 Daniells Welwyn Garden City, Hertfordshire, UK
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Barras AG, Blache S, Schaub M, Arlettaz R. Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species. Front Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.780706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Species- and population-specific responses to their environment may depend to a large extent on the spatial variation in life-history traits and in demographic processes of local population dynamics. Yet, those parameters and their variability remain largely unknown for many cold-adapted species, which are exposed to particularly rapid rates of environmental change. Here, we compared the demographic traits and dynamics for an emblematic bird species of European mountain ecosystems, the ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus). Using integrated population models fitted in a Bayesian framework, we estimated the survival probability, productivity and immigration of two populations from the Western European Alps, in France (over 11 years) and Switzerland (over 6 years). Juvenile apparent survival was lower and immigration rate higher in the Swiss compared to the French population, with the temporal variation in population growth rate driven by different demographic processes. Yet, when compared to populations in the northwestern part of the range, in Scotland, these two Alpine populations both showed a much lower productivity and higher adult survival, indicating a slower life-history strategy. Our results suggest that demographic characteristics can substantially vary across the discontinuous range of this passerine species, essentially due to contrasted, possibly locally evolved life-history strategies. This study therefore raises the question of whether flexibility in life-history traits is widespread among boreo-alpine species and if it might provide adaptive potential for coping with current environmental change.
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