Energy-mediated responses to changing prey size and distribution in marine top predator movements and population dynamics

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Four Trophically Dependent Fishery Species in the Northern China Seas Under Climate Change

Climate change is a major challenge affecting marine environments, making it essential to understand species distribution responses in both time and space for effective conservation strategies. Meanwhile, varying responses of species to climate change may lead to changes in interspecific relationships and future spatial distributions. This study assessed spatial and temporal distributions of four trophically dependent species of economic importance in the China seas, including largehead hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus), Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius), chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus), and anchovy (Engraulis japonicus). By incorporating fishery-dependent survey data and environmental variables, we developed a spatio-temporal mixed-effects model to analyze the distributional correlations among these species and predicted their distributions by the end of the century under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the selected environmental factors influenced encounter probability and catch rates differently. Predictions for the end of the century under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and RCP8.5 suggested significant shifts in population densities, with species like T. lepturus and S. niphonius experiencing reduced densities and altered spatial patterns, while E. japonicus may benefit from climate change. The center of gravity for most species was projected to shift northward by the year 2050, with notable variations under RCP8.5. Additionally, spatial overlap among species was expected to decrease significantly by the year 2100, indicating increasing divergence in their distributions. This study underscores the effects of climate change on species habitat distribution and offers a scientific basis for future habitat protection.

Cause and consequences of Common Snook (Centropomus undecimalis) space use specialization in a subtropical riverscape

Variability in space use among conspecifics can emerge from foraging strategies that track available resources, especially in riverscapes that promote high synchrony between prey pulses and consumers. Projected changes in riverscape hydrological regimes due to water management and climate change accentuate the need to understand the natural variability in animal space use and its implications for population dynamics and ecosystem function. Here, we used long-term tracking of Common Snook (Centropomus undecimalis) movement and trophic dynamics in the Shark River, Everglades National Park from 2012 to 2023 to test how specialization in the space use of individuals (i.e., Eadj) changes seasonally, how it is influenced by yearly hydrological conditions, and its relationship to the between individual trophic niche. Snook exhibited seasonal variability in space use, with maximum individual specialization (high dissimilarity) in the wet season. The degree of individual specialization increased over the years in association with greater marsh flooding duration, which produced important subsidies. Also, there were threshold responses of individual space use specialization as a function of floodplain conditions. Greater specialization in space use results in a decrease in snook trophic niche size. These results show how hydrological regimes in riverscapes influence individual specialization of resource use (both space and prey), providing insight into how forecasted hydroclimatic scenarios may shape habitat selection processes and the trophic dynamics of mobile consumers.

Variable juvenile growth rates and offspring size: a response to anthropogenic shifts in prey size among populations

Environmental variables, such as resource quality, shape growth in organisms, dictating body size, an important correlate of fitness. Variation in prey characteristics among populations is frequently associated with similar variation in predator body sizes. Anthropogenic alterations to prey landscapes impose novel ecological pressures on predators that may shift predator phenotypes. Research has focused on determining the adaptability of the phenotypic response by testing its genetic heritability. Here, we asked if anthropogenic shifts in prey size across the landscape correlate with juvenile growth rates among populations of watersnakes with divergent life-history phenotypes. We sought to determine if growth rate variation is the product of genetic adaptation or a non-heritable phenotypic response. Using a common-garden design, we measured growth of neonate snakes from fish farms varying in prey size. We found juvenile growth rates are faster for snakes with larger initial body sizes and from populations with larger average prey sizes. Our data suggest variability in juvenile grow rates within and among populations are not the product of genetic adaptation, but the indirect consequence of initial offspring size variation and prey consumption. We propose larger offspring sizes may favor increased juvenile growth rates, mediated through a larger morphological capacity to consume and process energy resources relative to smaller individuals. This experiment provides evidence supporting the growing body of literature that non-heritable responses may be significant drivers of rapid phenotypic divergence among populations across a landscape. This mechanism may explain the stability and colonization of populations in response to rapid, human-mediated, landscape changes.

Spatial and seasonal foraging patterns drive diet differences among north Pacific resident killer whale populations

Highly social top marine predators, including many cetaceans, exhibit culturally learned ecological behaviours such as diet preference and foraging strategy that can affect their resilience to competition or anthropogenic impacts. When these species are also endangered, conservation efforts require management strategies based on a comprehensive understanding of the variability in these behaviours. In the northeast Pacific Ocean, three partially sympatric populations of resident killer whales occupy coastal ecosystems from California to Alaska. One population (southern resident killer whales) is endangered, while another (southern Alaska resident killer whales) has exhibited positive abundance trends for the last several decades. Using 185 faecal samples collected from both populations between 2011 and 2021, we compare variability in diet preference to provide insight into differences in foraging patterns that may be linked with the relative success and decline of these populations. We find broad similarities in the diet of the two populations, with differences arising from spatiotemporal and social variability in resource use patterns, especially in the timing of shifts between target prey species. The results described here highlight the importance of comprehensive longitudinal monitoring of foraging ecology to inform management strategies for endangered, highly social top marine predators.

Ship noise causes tagged harbour porpoises to change direction or dive deeper

Shipping is the most pervasive source of marine noise pollution globally, yet its impact on sensitive fauna remains unclear. We tracked 10 harbour porpoises for 5-10 days to determine exposure and behavioural reactions to modelled broadband noise (10 Hz-20 kHz, VHF-weighted) from individual ships monitored by AIS. Porpoises spent a third of their time experiencing ship noise above ambient, to which they regularly reacted by moving away during daytime and diving deeper during night. However, even ships >2 km away (noise levels of 93 ± 14 dB re 1 μPa2) caused animals to react 5-9 % of the time (∼18.6 ships/day). Ships can thus influence the behaviour and habitat use of cetaceans over long distances, with worrying implications for fitness in coastal areas where anthropogenic noise from dense ship traffic repeatedly disrupt their natural behaviour.

Estimating energetic intake for marine mammal bioenergetic models

Bioenergetics is the study of how animals achieve energetic balance. Energetic balance results from the energetic expenditure of an individual and the energy they extract from their environment. Ingested energy depends on several extrinsic (e.g prey species, nutritional value and composition, prey density and availability) and intrinsic factors (e.g. foraging effort, success at catching prey, digestive processes and associated energy losses, and digestive capacity). While the focus in bioenergetic modelling is often on the energetic costs an animal incurs, the robust estimation of an individual's energy intake is equally critical for producing meaningful predictions. Here, we review the components and processes that affect energy intake from ingested gross energy to biologically useful net energy (NE). The current state of knowledge of each parameter is reviewed, shedding light on research gaps to advance this field. The review highlighted that the foraging behaviour of many marine mammals is relatively well studied via biologging tags, with estimates of success rate typically assumed for most species. However, actual prey capture success rates are often only assumed, although we note studies that provide approaches for its estimation using current techniques. A comprehensive collation of the nutritional content of marine mammal prey species revealed a robust foundation from which prey quality (comprising prey species, size and energy density) can be assessed, though data remain unavailable for many prey species. Empirical information on various energy losses following ingestion of prey was unbalanced among marine mammal species, with considerably more literature available for pinnipeds. An increased understanding and accurate estimate of each of the components that comprise a species NE intake are an integral part of bioenergetics. Such models provide a key tool to investigate the effects of disturbance on marine mammals at an individual and population level and to support effective conservation and management.

Key questions in marine mammal bioenergetics

Bioenergetic approaches are increasingly used to understand how marine mammal populations could be affected by a changing and disturbed aquatic environment. There remain considerable gaps in our knowledge of marine mammal bioenergetics, which hinder the application of bioenergetic studies to inform policy decisions. We conducted a priority-setting exercise to identify high-priority unanswered questions in marine mammal bioenergetics, with an emphasis on questions relevant to conservation and management. Electronic communication and a virtual workshop were used to solicit and collate potential research questions from the marine mammal bioenergetic community. From a final list of 39 questions, 11 were identified as 'key' questions because they received votes from at least 50% of survey participants. Key questions included those related to energy intake (prey landscapes, exposure to human activities) and expenditure (field metabolic rate, exposure to human activities, lactation, time-activity budgets), energy allocation priorities, metrics of body condition and relationships with survival and reproductive success and extrapolation of data from one species to another. Existing tools to address key questions include labelled water, animal-borne sensors, mark-resight data from long-term research programs, environmental DNA and unmanned vehicles. Further validation of existing approaches and development of new methodologies are needed to comprehensively address some key questions, particularly for cetaceans. The identification of these key questions can provide a guiding framework to set research priorities, which ultimately may yield more accurate information to inform policies and better conserve marine mammal populations.

A review of bioenergetic modelling for marine mammal populations

Bioenergetic models describe the processes through which animals acquire energy from resources in the environment and allocate it to different life history functions. They capture some of the fundamental mechanisms regulating individuals, populations and ecosystems and have thus been used in a wide variety of theoretical and applied contexts. Here, I review the development of bioenergetic models for marine mammals and their application to management and conservation. For these long-lived, wide-ranging species, bioenergetic approaches were initially used to assess the energy requirements and prey consumption of individuals and populations. Increasingly, models are developed to describe the dynamics of energy intake and allocation and predict how resulting body reserves, vital rates and population dynamics might change as external conditions vary. The building blocks required to develop such models include estimates of intake rate, maintenance costs, growth patterns, energy storage and the dynamics of gestation and lactation, as well as rules for prioritizing allocation. I describe how these components have been parameterized for marine mammals and highlight critical research gaps. Large variation exists among available analytical approaches, reflecting the large range of life histories, management needs and data availability across studies. Flexibility in modelling strategy has supported tailored applications to specific case studies but has resulted in limited generality. Despite the many empirical and theoretical uncertainties that remain, bioenergetic models can be used to predict individual and population responses to environmental change and other anthropogenic impacts, thus providing powerful tools to inform effective management and conservation.

Energy-mediated responses to changing prey size and distribution in marine top predator movements and population dynamics

Climate change is modifying the structure of marine ecosystems, including that of fish communities. Alterations in abiotic and biotic conditions can decrease fish size and change community spatial arrangement, ultimately impacting predator species which rely on these communities. To conserve predators and understand the drivers of observed changes in their population dynamics, we must advance our understanding of how shifting environmental conditions can impact populations by limiting food available to individuals. To investigate the impacts of changing fish size and spatial aggregation on a top predator population, we applied an existing agent-based model parameterized for harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena which represents animal energetics and movements in high detail. We used this framework to quantify the impacts of shifting prey size and spatial aggregation on porpoise movement, space use, energetics and population dynamics. Simulated individuals were more likely to switch from area-restricted search to transit behaviour with increasing prey size, particularly when starving, due to elevated resource competition. In simulations with highly aggregated prey, higher prey encounter rates counteracted resource competition, resulting in no impacts of prey spatial aggregation on movement behaviour. Reduced energy intake with decreasing prey size and aggregation level caused population decline, with a 15% decrease in fish length resulting in total population collapse Increasing prey consumption rates by 42.8 ± 4.5% could offset population declines; however, this increase was 21.3 ± 12.7% higher than needed to account for changes in total energy availability alone. This suggests that animals in realistic seascapes require additional energy to locate smaller prey which should be considered when assessing the impacts of decreased energy availability. Changes in prey size and aggregation influenced movements and population dynamics of simulated harbour porpoises, revealing that climate-induced changes in prey structure, not only prey abundance, may threaten predator populations. We demonstrate how a population model with realistic animal movements and process-based energetics can be used to investigate population consequences of shifting food availability, such as those mediated by climate change, and provide a mechanistic explanation for how changes in prey structure can impact energetics, behaviour and ultimately viability of predator populations.