Causal inference in studies of preterm babies: a simulation study

The Global Pregnancy Collaboration (CoLab) symposium on short- and long-term outcomes in offspring whose mothers had preeclampsia: A scoping review of clinical evidence

Preeclampsia is a maternal syndrome characterized by the new onset of hypertension after 20 weeks of gestation associated with multisystemic complications leading to high maternal and fetal/neonatal morbidity and mortality. However, sequelae of preeclampsia may extend years after pregnancy in both mothers and their children. In addition to the long-term adverse cardiovascular effects of preeclampsia in the mother, observational studies have reported elevated risk of cardiovascular, metabolic, cerebral and cognitive complications in children born from women with preeclampsia. Less clear is whether the association between maternal preeclampsia and offspring sequelae are causal, or to what degree the associations might be driven by fetal factors including impaired growth and the health of its placenta. Our discussion of these complexities in the 2018 Global Pregnancy Collaboration annual meeting prompted us to write this review. We aimed to summarize the evidence of an association between maternal preeclampsia and neurobehavioral developmental disorders in offspring in hopes of generating greater research interest in this important topic.

Maternal tobacco smoking and offspring autism spectrum disorder or traits in ECHO cohorts

Given inconsistent evidence on preconception or prenatal tobacco use and offspring autism spectrum disorder (ASD), this study assessed associations of maternal smoking with ASD and ASD-related traits. Among 72 cohorts in the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes consortium, 11 had ASD diagnosis and prenatal tobaccosmoking (n = 8648). and 7 had Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) scores of ASD traits (n = 2399). Cohorts had diagnoses alone (6), traits alone (2), or both (5). Diagnoses drew from parent/caregiver report, review of records, or standardized instruments. Regression models estimated smoking-related odds ratios (ORs) for diagnoses and standardized mean differences for SRS scores. Cohort-specific ORs were meta-analyzed. Overall, maternal smoking was unassociated with child ASD (adjusted OR, 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-1.61). However, heterogeneity across studies was strong: preterm cohorts showed reduced ASD risk for exposed children. After excluding preterm cohorts (biased by restrictions on causal intermediate and exposure opportunity) and small cohorts (very few ASD cases in either smoking category), the adjusted OR for ASD from maternal smoking was 1.44 (95% CI, 1.02-2.03). Children of smoking (versus non-smoking) mothers had more ASD traits (SRS T-score + 2.37 points, 95% CI, 0.73-4.01 points), with results homogeneous across cohorts. Maternal preconception/prenatal smoking was consistently associated with quantitative ASD traits and modestly associated with ASD diagnosis among sufficiently powered United States cohorts of non-preterm children. Limitations resulting from self-reported smoking and unmeasured confounders preclude definitive conclusions. Nevertheless, counseling on potential and known risks to the child from maternal smoking is warranted for pregnant women and pregnancy planners. LAY SUMMARY: Evidence on the association between maternal prenatal smoking and the child's risk for autism spectrum disorder has been conflicting, with some studies reporting harmful effects, and others finding reduced risks. Our analysis of children in the ECHO consortium found that maternal prenatal tobacco smoking is consistently associated with an increase in autism-related symptoms in the general population and modestly associated with elevated risk for a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder when looking at a combined analysis from multiple studies that each included both pre- and full-term births. However, this study is not proof of a causal connection. Future studies to clarify the role of smoking in autism-like behaviors or autism diagnoses should collect more reliable data on smoking and measure other exposures or lifestyle factors that might have confounded our results.

Maternal education and cognitive development in 15 European very-preterm birth cohorts from the RECAP Preterm platform

BACKGROUND

Studies are sparse and inconclusive about the association between maternal education and cognitive development among children born very preterm (VPT). Although this association is well established in the general population, questions remain about its magnitude among children born VPT whose risks of medical and developmental complications are high. We investigated the association of maternal education with cognitive outcomes in European VPT birth cohorts.

METHODS

We used harmonized aggregated data from 15 population-based cohorts of children born at <32 weeks of gestational age (GA) or <1500 g from 1985 to 2013 in 13 countries with information on maternal education and assessments of general development at 2-3 years and/or intelligence quotients between 4 and 15 years. Term-born controls (≥37 weeks of GA) were available in eight cohorts. Maternal education was classified as: low (primary/lower secondary); medium (upper secondary/short tertiary); high (bachelor's/higher). Pooled standardized mean differences (SMDs) in cognitive scores were estimated (reference: high educational level) for children assessed at ages 2-3, 4-7 and 8-15 years.

RESULTS

The study included 10 145 VPT children from 12 cohorts at 2-3 years, 8829 from 12 cohorts at 4-7 years and 1865 children from 6 cohorts at 8-15 years. Children whose mothers had low, compared with high, educational attainment scored lower on cognitive measures [pooled unadjusted SMDs: 2-3 years = -0.32 (95% confidence intervals: -0.43 to -0.21); 4-7 years = -0.57 (-0.67; -0.47); 8-15 years = -0.54 (-0.72; -0.37)]. Analyses by GA subgroups (<27 vs ≥27 weeks) in children without severe neonatal morbidity and term controls yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Across diverse settings and regardless of the degree of prematurity, low maternal education was associated with lower cognition.

Quantifying the influence of bias in reproductive and perinatal epidemiology through simulation

PURPOSE

The application of simulated data in epidemiological studies enables the illustration and quantification of the magnitude of various types of bias commonly found in observational studies. This was a review of the application of simulation methods to the quantification of bias in reproductive and perinatal epidemiology and an assessment of value gained.

METHODS

A search of published studies available in English was conducted in August 2020 using PubMed, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and Scopus. A gray literature search of Google and Google Scholar, and a hand search using the reference lists of included studies was undertaken.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine papers were included in this study, covering information (n = 14), selection (n = 14), confounding (n = 9), protection (n = 1), and attenuation bias (n = 1). The methods of simulating data and reporting of results varied, with more recent studies including causal diagrams. Few studies included code for replication.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there has been an increasing application of simulation in reproductive and perinatal epidemiology since 2015, overall this remains an underexplored area. Further efforts are required to increase knowledge of how the application of simulation can quantify the influence of bias, including improved design, analysis and reporting. This will improve causal interpretation in reproductive and perinatal studies.

Environmental hazards, social inequality, and fetal loss: Implications of live-birth bias for estimation of disparities in birth outcomes

Restricting to live births can induce bias in studies of pregnancy and developmental outcomes, but whether this live-birth bias results in underestimating disparities is unknown. Bias may arise from collider stratification due to an unmeasured common cause of fetal loss and the outcome of interest, or depletion of susceptibles, where exposure differentially causes fetal loss among those with underlying susceptibility.

METHODS

We conducted a simulation study to examine the magnitude of live-birth bias in a population parameterized to resemble one year of conceptions in California (N = 625,000). We simulated exposure to a non-time-varying environmental hazard, risk of spontaneous abortion, and time to live birth using 1000 Monte Carlo simulations. Our outcome of interest was preterm birth. We included a social vulnerability factor to represent social disadvantage, and estimated overall risk differences for exposure and preterm birth using linear probability models and stratified by the social vulnerability factor. We calculated how often confidence intervals included the true point estimate (CI coverage probabilities) to illustrate whether effect estimates differed qualitatively from the truth.

RESULTS

Depletion of susceptibles resulted in a larger magnitude of bias compared with collider stratification, with larger bias among the socially vulnerable group. Coverage probabilities were not adversely affected by bias due to collider stratification. Depletion of susceptibles reduced coverage, especially among the socially vulnerable (coverage among socially vulnerable = 46%, coverage among nonsocially vulnerable = 91% in the most extreme scenario).

CONCLUSIONS

In simulations, hazardous environmental exposures induced live-birth bias and the bias was larger for socially vulnerable women.

Educational note: addressing special cases of bias that frequently occur in perinatal epidemiology

The epidemiologic study of pregnancy and birth outcomes may be hindered by several unique and challenging issues. Pregnancy is a time-limited period in which severe cohort attrition takes place between conception and birth and adverse outcomes are complex and multi-factorial. Biases span those familiar to epidemiologists: selection, confounding and information biases. Specific challenges include conditioning on potential intermediates, how to treat race/ethnicity, and influential windows of prolonged, seasonal and potentially time-varying exposures. Researchers studying perinatal outcomes should be cognizant of the potential pitfalls due to these factors and address their implications with respect to formulating questions of interest, choice of an appropriate analysis approach and interpretations of findings given assumptions. In this article, we catalogue some of the more important potential sources of bias in perinatal epidemiology that have more recently gained attention in the literature, provide the epidemiologic context behind each issue and propose practices for dealing with each issue to the extent possible.

Association of Histological and Clinical Chorioamnionitis With Neonatal Sepsis Among Preterm Infants: A Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Meta-Regression

Chorioamnionitis (CA) is considered a key risk factor for very preterm birth and for developing early onset sepsis (EOS) in preterm infants, but recent data suggest that CA might be protective against late onset sepsis (LOS). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies exploring the association between CA and sepsis. A comprehensive literature search was performed in PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE, from their inception to December 1, 2018. A random-effects model was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sources of heterogeneity were analyzed by subgroup and meta-regression analyses. The following categories of sepsis were analyzed: EOS, LOS, unspecified onset sepsis (UOS), culture-proven, and clinical sepsis. CA was subdivided into clinical and histological chorioamnionitis. Funisitis was also analyzed. We found 3,768 potentially relevant studies, of which 107 met the inclusion criteria (387,321 infants; 44,414 cases of CA). Meta-analysis showed an association between any CA and any EOS (OR 4.29, CI 3.63-5.06), any LOS (OR 1.29, CI 1.11-1.54), and any UOS (OR 1.59, CI 1.11-1.54). Subgroup analysis showed that CA was associated with culture-proven EOS (OR 4.69, CI 3.91-5.56), clinical EOS (OR 3.58, CI 1.90-6.76), and culture-proven LOS (OR 1.31, CI 1.12-1.53), but not with clinical LOS (OR 1.52, CI 0.78-2.96). The presence of funisitis did not increase the risk of either EOS or LOS when compared with CA without funisitis. CA-exposed infants had lower gestational age (-1.11 weeks, CI -1.37 to -0.84) than the infants not exposed to CA. Meta-regression analysis showed that the lower gestational age of the CA group correlated with the association between CA and LOS but not with the association between CA and EOS. In conclusion, our data suggest that the positive association between chorioamnionitis and LOS may be modulated by the effect of chorioamnionitis on gestational age.

Capacity and patient flow planning in post-term pregnancy outpatient clinics: a computer simulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

The demand for a large Norwegian hospital's post-term pregnancy outpatient clinic has increased substantially over the last 10 years due to changes in the hospital's catchment area and to clinical guidelines. Planning the clinic is further complicated due to the high did not attend rates as a result of women giving birth. The aim of this study is to determine the maximum number of women specified clinic configurations, combination of specified clinic resources, can feasibly serve within clinic opening times.

METHODS

A hybrid agent based discrete event simulation model of the clinic was used to evaluate alternative configurations to gain insight into clinic planning and to support decision making. Clinic configurations consisted of six factors: X0: Arrivals. X1: Arrival pattern. X2: Order of midwife and doctor consultations. X3: Number of midwives. X4: Number of doctors. X5: Number of cardiotocography (CTGs) machines. A full factorial experimental design of the six factors generated 608 configurations.

RESULTS

Each configuration was evaluated using the following measures: Y1: Arrivals. Y2: Time last woman checks out. Y3: Women's length of stay (LoS). Y4: Clinic overrun time. Y5: Midwife waiting time (WT). Y6: Doctor WT. Y7: CTG connection WT. Optimisation was used to maximise X0 with respect to the 32 combinations of X1-X5. Configuration 0a, the base case Y1 = 7 women and Y3 = 102.97 [0.21] mins. Changing the arrival pattern (X1) and the order of the midwife and doctor consultations (X2) configuration 0d, where X3, X4, X5 = 0a, Y1 = 8 woman and Y3 86.06 [0.10] mins.

CONCLUSIONS

The simulation model identified the availability of CTG machines as a bottleneck in the clinic, indicated by the WT for CTG connection effect on LoS. One additional CTG machine improved clinic performance to the same degree as an extra midwife and an extra doctor. The simulation model demonstrated significant reductions to LoS can be achieved without additional resources, by changing the clinic pathway and scheduling of appointments. A more general finding is that a simulation model can be used to identify bottlenecks, and efficient ways of restructuring an outpatient clinic.

The fragile foundations of the extended fetuses-at-risk approach

BACKGROUND

Whether denominators for postnatal outcomes (ascertained after live birth) with a presumed prenatal origin should consist of fetuses or live births remains controversial. Proponents argue that the extended fetuses-at-risk (FAR) approach (a), provides a justification for medically indicated preterm delivery, (b), avoids paradoxical results, and (c), permits quantification of incidence of fetal-infant phenomena, such as "revealed" small for gestational age (SGA)-which, under FAR, rises with advancing gestation.

METHODS

This conceptual paper examines the validity of the above arguments.

RESULTS

As obstetricians induce babies early because of fetal (or maternal) compromise and despite the dangers posed by immaturity, there is no need to modify a paradigm that portrays preterm birth as a powerful risk factor. The FAR approach generally avoids "paradoxical" intersections because FAR rates of postnatal outcomes depend on the birth rate. However, this property, which causes rates of most postnatal outcomes to rise at term, can also lead to risk reversals and other misleading findings. The FAR formulation does not yield the incidence of postnatal conditions but, rather, the incidence of live birth (and survival to diagnosis) of babies with prevalent conditions (and, sometimes, future ones).

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed arguments do not provide adequate support for extending the FAR approach to postnatal outcomes. As only live births can contribute to the numerator of rates, the usefulness and interpretability of FAR measures in this setting are limited.

Maternal hypertension and survival in singletons and twins born at 23-29 weeks: not just one answer…

BACKGROUND

To describe the association between maternal hypertension (chronic and gestational, MH) and mortality in very preterm singletons and twins, focusing on how estimates depend on gestational age (GA) and size at birth.

METHODS

We estimated relative risks of in-hospital death in 12,320 singletons (MH: 22.4%) and 4381 twins (MH: 10.6%) born at 23-29 weeks in the Italian Neonatal Network (89 hospitals, 2008-2016).

RESULTS

Babies with MH had higher GA and were more frequently small-for-gestational age (SGA), especially singletons. In crude analyses, MH was associated with lower mortality in singletons. In multivariable analyses, the effects of GA and size differed between twins and singletons with and without MH. The best-fitting models included continuous birth weight (rather than SGA) and were stratified by GA. In these models, MH was associated with lower mortality in singletons-but not twins-born after week 25.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of very preterm infants, the association between MH and mortality differed between singletons and twins and across strata of GA at birth. These estimates cannot be interpreted causally, but suggest that, from a descriptive/predictive standpoint, singletons with MH born after week 25 have lower mortality than singletons born to women without MH.

Directed acyclic graphs: a tool for causal studies in paediatrics

Many paediatric clinical research studies, whether observational or interventional, have as an eventual aim the identification or quantification of causal relationships. One might ask: does screen time influence childhood obesity? Could overuse of paracetamol in infancy cause wheeze? How does breastfeeding affect later cognitive outcomes? In this review, we present causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to a paediatric audience. DAGs are a graphical tool which provide a way to visually represent and better understand the key concepts of exposure, outcome, causation, confounding, and bias. We use clinical examples, including those outlined above, framed in the language of DAGs, to demonstrate their potential applications. We show how DAGs can be most useful in identifying confounding and sources of bias, demonstrating inappropriate statistical adjustments for presumed biases, and understanding threats to validity in randomised controlled trials. We believe that a familiarity with DAGs, and the concepts underlying them, will be of benefit both to the researchers planning studies, and practising clinicians interpreting them.

The curse of the perinatal epidemiologist: inferring causation amidst selection

Purpose of review

Human reproduction is a common process and one that unfolds over a relatively short time, but pregnancy and birth processes are challenging to study. Selection occurs at every step of this process (e.g., infertility, early pregnancy loss, and stillbirth), adding substantial bias to estimated exposure-outcome associations. Here we focus on selection in perinatal epidemiology, specifically, how it affects research question formulation, feasible study designs, and interpretation of results.

Recent findings

Approaches have recently been proposed to address selection issues in perinatal epidemiology. One such approach is the ongoing pregnancies denominator for gestation-stratified analyses of infant outcomes. Similarly, bias resulting from left truncation has recently been termed "live birth bias," and a proposed solution is to control for common causes of selection variables (e.g., fecundity, fetal loss) and birth outcomes. However, these approaches have theoretical shortcomings, conflicting with the foundational epidemiologic concept of populations at risk for a given outcome.

Summary

We engage with epidemiologic theory and employ thought experiments to demonstrate the problems of using denominators that include units not "at risk" of the outcome. Fundamental (and commonsense) concerns of outcome definition and analysis (e.g., ensuring that all study participants are at risk for the outcome) should take precedence in formulating questions and analysis approach, as should choosing questions that stakeholders care about. Selection and resulting biases in human reproductive processes complicate estimation of unbiased exposure- outcome associations, but we should not focus solely (or even mostly) on minimizing such biases.

Placental Abruption and Child Mortality

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Placental abruption causes asphyxia and leads to high perinatal mortality. Our objective was to study the overall mortality and causes of death among children born after placental abruption.

METHODS

Data on children born from singleton pregnancies complicated by placental abruption between 1987 and 2005 were collected from the Finnish Medical Birth Register, the Hospital Discharge Register, and the Cause-of-Death Register. A reference group consisted of children born from pregnancies without placental abruption. After excluding stillbirths, the final study sample comprised 3888 children born after placental abruption (index children) and 12 530 referent children. The main outcome measure was overall mortality.

RESULTS

By the end of 2013, there were 280 deaths among the index children and 107 deaths among the referent children. Compared with the referent children, the overall mortality among the index children was significantly increased (hazard ratio: 8.70; 95% confidence interval 6.96-10.90). During the neonatal period (0-27 days) the mortality was nearly 15-fold (14.8; 10.9-20.0), birth-related asphyxia being the leading cause of death (108; 34-341). The mortality remained high during days 28 to 365 (10.3; 4.83-21.8) and beyond 365 days (1.70; 1.03-2.79). Furthermore, the overall mortality was increased among the index children born at 32 to 36 + 6 gestational weeks (2.77; 1.54-4.98) and at ≥37 weeks (4.98; 3.54-6.99) and among children with a birth weight of 2500 g or more (5.94; 4.33-8.14).

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of abruption on offspring mortality extends far beyond the perinatal period. This is mainly due to birth-related asphyxia and prematurity-related consequences.