Prioritizing among removal scenarios for the reintroduction of endangered species: insights from bearded vulture simulation modeling

Demographic effects of sanitary policies on European vulture population dynamics: A retrospective modeling approach

The prediction of population responses to environmental changes, including the effects of different management scenarios, is a useful tool and a necessary contributor to improving conservation decisions. Empirical datasets based on long-term monitoring studies are essential to assess the robustness of retrospective modeling predictions on biodiversity. These allow checks on the performance of modeling projections and enable improvements to be made to future models, based on the errors detected. Here, we assess the performance of our earlier model to assess the impact of vulture food shortages caused by sanitary regulations on the population dynamics of Spanish vultures during the past decade (2009-2019). This model forecasts the population trends of three vulture species (griffon, Egyptian, and bearded vultures) in Spain (home to 90% of the European vulture population) under various food shortage scenarios. We show that it underestimated bearded and griffon vulture population numbers and overestimated Egyptian vultures. The model suggested that the most plausible food shortage scenario involved an approximate 50% reduction of livestock carcass availability in the ecosystem compared with the previous situation without sanitary carcass removal. However, the observed annual population growth for the period 2009-2019 (7.8% for griffon vulture, 2.4% for Egyptian vulture, and 3.5% for bearded vulture) showed that food shortages had little impact on vulture population dynamics. After assessing the robustness of the model, we developed a new model with updated demographic parameters and foraging movements under different hypothetical food shortage scenarios for the period 2019-2029. This model forecasts annual population increases of about 3.6% for the bearded vulture, 3.7% for the Egyptian vulture, and 1.1% for the Griffon vulture. Our findings suggest that food shortages due to the implementation of sanitary policies resulted in only a moderate impact on vulture population growth, probably thanks to the supplementary feeding network which provided alternative food. Also important was the availability of alternative food sources (intensive farms, landfills) that were used more regularly than expected. We discuss the computational performance of our modeling approach and its management consequences to improve future conservation measures for these threatened species, which provide essential ecosystem services.

Insights on the best release strategy from post-release movements and mortality patterns in an avian scavenger

Conservation translocations involving vultures rely either on soft- or hard-release strategies. To investigate whether these strategies affect home range stability and survival, we compared the spatial behavior and mortality of 38 Griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus) released in Sardinia. Griffons were released after no acclimatization or after 3 (short) or 15 (long acclimatization) months in an aviary. In the two years that followed their release, griffons without acclimatization did not stabilize their home range size, while those subjected to long acclimatization stabilized it in the second year. Short-acclimatized griffons always had a large home range, soon after their release. The number of individuals that reached sexual maturity was higher (71.4%) in long-acclimatized griffons than in short-acclimatized ones (40%) or in griffons that were hard released (28.6%). Soft release with a long acclimatization period seems to be the most successful method to ensure stable home ranges and the survival of griffon vultures.

Exploratory and territorial behavior in a reintroduced population of Iberian lynx

In reintroduction projects, an analysis of dispersal, exploratory movements and territorial behavior of the species concerned offers valuable information on the adaptive management of threatened species and provides a basis for the management of future reintroductions. This is the case of the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) an endemic and endangered species reintroduced in Extremadura (Spain) in 2014. We analysed spatial data from 32 individuals just after their reintroduction. Our findings show exploratory movements sufficient to colonise and connect population nuclei within a radius of about 50 km of the reintroduction area. No significant differences were found in the exploratory movements capacity or in any directionality of males and females. Our results showed an effect of sex on the sizes of the territories established, as well as an inverse relationship between them and the time elapsed since release. No effects of rabbit abundance and lynx density on the size of territories are occurring during the early stages of reintroduction. On average, the territories of reintroduced individuals were less stable than those previously described in natural populations. Findings indicate that the reintroduced population has successfully been established but it takes more than 5 years to stabilize the territories in the area. Exploratory movements of reintroduced lynx can be large and in any direction, even when there is still a lot of high quality habitat available, which should be taken into account when reintroducing species, especially terrestrial carnivores.

Removal modelling in ecology: A systematic review

Removal models were proposed over 80 years ago as a tool to estimate unknown population size. More recently, they are used as an effective tool for management actions for the control of non desirable species, or for the evaluation of translocation management actions. Although the models have evolved over time, in essence, the protocol for data collection has remained similar: at each sampling occasion attempts are made to capture and remove individuals from the study area. Within this paper we review the literature of removal modelling and highlight the methodological developments for the analysis of removal data, in order to provide a unified resource for ecologists wishing to implement these approaches. Models for removal data have developed to better accommodate important features of the data and we discuss the shift in the required assumptions for the implementation of the models. The relative simplicity of this type of data and associated models mean that the method remains attractive and we discuss the potential future role of this technique.

Can flexible timing of harvest for translocation reduce the impact on fluctuating source populations?

Abstract ContextSpecies translocations are used in conservation globally. Although harvest for translocation may have negative impacts on source populations, translocation programs rarely explore ways of minimising those impacts. In fluctuating source populations, harvest timing may affect its impact because population size and trajectory vary among years. AimsWe explored whether the timing and scale of harvest can be altered to reduce its impact on a fluctuating source population of Mallee Emu-wrens, Stipiturus mallee; an endangered passerine in south-eastern Australia. Mallee Emu-wren populations fluctuate with ~5–10-year drought–rain cycles. MethodsWe used population viability analysis (PVA) to compare the impact of five harvest scales (no harvest, 100, 200, 300 or 500 individuals) under three population trajectories (increasing, stable or decreasing) and two initial population sizes (our model-based estimate of the population size and the lower 95% confidence interval of that estimate). To generate a model-based estimate of the population size, we surveyed 540 sites (9ha), stratified according to environmental variables known to affect Mallee Emu-wren occurrence. We used an information-theoretic approach with N-mixture models to estimate Mallee Emu-wren density, and extrapolated results over all potential habitat. Key ResultsWe estimate that in spring 2019, the source population consisted of 6449 individuals, with a minimum of 1923 individuals (lower 95% confidence interval). Of 48 harvest scenarios, only seven showed no impact of harvest within 5 years (15%). Those seven all had increasing population trajectories and carrying capacity set to equal initial population size. Twenty-six populations showed no impact of harvest within 25 years (54%). These were either increasing populations that had reached carrying capacity or decreasing populations nearing extinction. ConclusionsInitial population size, carrying capacity, harvest scale and population trajectory were all determinants of harvest impact. Given the importance of carrying capacity, further research is required to determine its role in the Mallee Emu-wren source population. ImplicationsHarvesting Mallee Emu-wrens after high-rainfall years will have the least impact because source populations are likely to be large with increasing trajectories. For fluctuating source populations, flexibility in the timing of harvest can reduce its impact and should be considered during translocation planning.