There will be conflict – agricultural landscapes are prime, rather than marginal, habitats for Asian elephants

On the elephant trails: habitat suitability and connectivity for Asian elephants in eastern Indian landscape

Identifying suitable habitats and conserving corridors are crucial to the long-term conservation of large and conflict-prone animals. Being a flagship species, survival of Asian elephants is threatened by human-induced mortality and habitat modification. We aimed to assess the habitat suitability and connectivity of the Asian elephant Elephas maximus Linnaeus, 1758 habitat in the state of Odisha in eastern India. We followed the ensemble of spatial prediction models using species presence data and five environmental variables. We used least-cost path and circuit theory approaches to identify the spatial connectivity between core habitats for Asian elephants. The results revealed that normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; variable importance 42%) and terrain ruggedness (19%) are the most influential variables for predicting habitat suitability of species within the study area. Our habitat suitability map estimated 14.6% of Odisha's geographical area (c. 22,442 km2) as highly suitable and 13.3% (c. 20,464 km2) as moderate highly suitable. We identified 58 potential linkages to maintain the habitat connectivity across study area. Furthermore, we identified pinch points, bottlenecks, and high centrality links between core habitats. Our study offers management implications for long-term landscape conservation for Asian elephants in Odisha and highlights priority zones that can help maintain spatial links between elephant habitats.

Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human-elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia

Human-wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability-three key drivers of human-elephant conflict-will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions "regional rivalry" SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions "sustainability" SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.

Beyond protected areas: The importance of mixed-use landscapes for the conservation of Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus)

Elephants were once widely distributed across the Indonesian island of Sumatra but now exist in small, isolated populations. Using the best data available on elephant occurrence, we aimed to (a) predict potential habitat suitability for elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) across the island of Sumatra and (b) model landscape connectivity among the extant elephant populations. We used direct sightings and indirect observations of elephant signs, as well as six remotely sensed proxies of surface ruggedness, vegetation productivity and structure, and human land use and disturbance, to model habitat suitability in a Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. We validated the habitat suitability prediction using 10-fold spatial block cross validation and by calculating the area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR), sensitivity, and specificity for each model iteration. We also used a geolocation dataset collected from global positioning system (GPS) collars fitted on elephants as an independent validation dataset. Models showed good predictive performance with a mean AUC-PR of 0.73, sensitivity of 0.76, and specificity of 0.68. Greater than 83% of the independent GPS collar geolocations were located in predicted suitable habitat. We found human modification, surface ruggedness, and normalized difference vegetation index to be the most important variables for predicting suitable elephant habitat. Thirty-two percent, or 135,646 km2, of Sumatra's land area was predicted to be suitable habitat, with 43 patches of suitable habitat located across Sumatra. Areas with high connectivity were concentrated in the Riau and North Sumatra provinces. Though our analysis highlights the need to improve the quality of data collected on Sumatran elephants, more suitable habitat remains on Sumatra than is used by known populations. Targeted habitat conservation, especially of the suitable habitat in and around the Lamno, Balai Raja, Tesso Tenggara, Tesso Utara, Bukit Tigapuluh, Seblat, Padang Sugihan, and Bukit Barisan Selatan ranges, may improve the long-term viability of this critically endangered species.

Attitudes towards the Potential Use of Aversive Geofencing Devices to Manage Wild Elephant Movement

Aversive geofencing devices (AGDs) or animal-borne satellite-linked shock collars might become a useful tool to mitigate human-elephant conflict (HEC). AGDs have the potential to condition problem elephants to avoid human-dominated landscapes by associating mild electric shocks with preceding audio warnings given as they approach virtual boundaries. We assessed the opinions of different stakeholders (experts, farmers, and others who have and have not experienced HEC; n = 611) on the potential use of AGDs on Asian elephants. Most respondents expressed positive opinions on the potential effectiveness of AGDs in managing elephant movement (62.2%). About 62.8% respondents also provided positive responses for the acceptability of AGDs if pilot studies with captive elephants have been successful in managing their movements. Some respondents perceived AGDs to be unacceptable because they are unethical or harmful and would be unsuccessful given wild elephants may respond differently to AGDs than captive elephants. Respondents identified acceptability, support and awareness of stakeholders, safety and wellbeing of elephants, logistical difficulties, durability and reliable functionality of AGDs, and uncertainties in elephants' responses to AGDs as potential challenges for implementing AGDs. These issues need attention when developing AGDs to increase support from stakeholders and to effectively reduce HEC incidents in the future.

Land-use change is associated with multi-century loss of elephant ecosystems in Asia

Understanding historic patterns of land use and land cover change across large temporal and spatial scales is critical for developing effective biodiversity conservation management and policy. We quantify the extent and fragmentation of suitable habitat across the continental range of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) based on present-day occurrence data and land-use variables between 850 and 2015 A.D. We found that following centuries of relative stability, over 64% (3.36 million km²) of suitable elephant habitat across Asia was lost since the year 1700, coincident with colonial-era land-use practices in South Asia and subsequent agricultural intensification in Southeast Asia. Average patch size dropped 83% from approximately 99,000-16,000 km² and the area occupied by the largest patch decreased 83% from ~ 4 million km² (45% of area) to 54,000 km² (~ 7.5% of area). Whereas 100% of the area within 100 km of the current elephant range could have been considered suitable habitat in the year 1700, over half was unsuitable by 2015, driving potential conflict with people. These losses reflect long-term decline of non-forested ecosystems, exceeding estimates of deforestation within this century. Societies must consider ecological histories in addition to proximate threats to develop more just and sustainable land-use and conservation strategies.

Mobile animals and immobile protected areas: improving the coverage of nature reserves for Asian elephant conservation in China

Many protected areas worldwide have been established to protect the last natural refuges of flagship animal species. However, long-established protected areas do not always match the current distributions of target species under changing environmental conditions. Here we present a case study of the Asian elephant Elephas maximus in Xishuangbanna, south-west China, to evaluate whether the established protected areas match the species’ current distribution and to identify key habitat patches for Asian elephant conservation. Our results show that currently only 24.5% of the predicted Asian elephant distribution in Xishuangbanna is located within Xishuangbanna National Nature Reserve, which was established for elephant conservation. Based on the predicted Asian elephant distribution, we identified the most important habitat patches for elephant conservation in Xishuangbanna. The three most important patches were outside Xishuangbanna National Nature Reserve and together they contained 43.3% of the estimated food resources for Asian elephants in all patches in Xishuangbanna. Thus, we identified a spatial mismatch between immobile protected areas and mobile animals. We recommend the inclusion of the three identified key habitat patches in a new national park currently being planned by the Chinese authorities for the conservation of the Asian elephant.

Understanding barriers and benefits to adopting elephant coexistence practices in oil palm plantation landscapes in Lower Kinabatangan, Sabah

Oil palm managers are one of the key stakeholders who could help strengthen efforts to protect elephants in the landscape. We used a Theory of Change (ToC) approach to hypothesize potential barriers and benefits to managers adopting best practise. We conducted two workshopss with more than 60 participants to better understand managers’ perceptions of Human Elephant Conflict (HEC) and their willingness to adopt better wildlife management practices. The workshops confirmed that some of the outcomes we perceived in the original ToC, including security issues, false accusations, negative perceptions by the international community and crop damage, were affecting their willingness to promote coexistence in their plantation. However, we also uncovered other potential barriers and opportunities to promote coexistence, including international and national standards that do not provide enough technical and practical guidance for all levels, expensive monitoring costs, and inconsistent collaboration among industry players and between government and non-government agencies. Our initial findings suggest that new attitudes and perceptions have not been explored before and may be critical for manager engagement and adoption of best practices for HEC, as well as the identification of new audiences that would need to be engaged to be successful in achieving elephant conservation goals.

Strategies of protected area use by Asian elephants in relation to motivational state and social affiliations

Animals' space requirements may vary according to life-history and social considerations. We observed 516 wild adult Asian elephants from both sexes, over 9 years, to investigate how life-history traits and social behavior influence protected-area (PA) use at Udawalawe National Park, Sri Lanka. Male PA-use, quantified in terms of average between-sightings-interval (BSI), was significantly influenced by the interaction of age class and motivational state (i.e. reproduction vs. foraging). Musth lengthened with age, with a median of 24.5 days for ages 21-30, 32.5 days for ages 31-40, and 45 days for those > 40. A minority (11%) used it exclusively during musth, while others used it exclusively for foraging (44%) or both (45%). Males using it in both states and older musth-only males were more likely to be seen across years. There were 16 social communities containing between 2-22 adult females. Females' BSI was significantly influenced by social ties, but this relationship was weak, because members of social communities do not necessarily disperse together, resulting in high individual variation in space-use. Inter-annual variability in sightings among individuals of both sexes indicates that around ¾ of the population is likely non-residential across years, challenging the prevailing fortress-conservation paradigm of wildlife management.

Broad scale functional connectivity for Asian elephants in the Nepal-India transboundary region

The Nepal-India transboundary region hosts one of Asia's most complex large mammal assemblages, including a small (but growing) population of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus). These elephants occur in four widespread and geographically disjunct subpopulations, and some of them undergo seasonal transboundary movements. We conducted a broad-scale evaluation of the amount and quality of elephant habitat available in the region and of functional landscape connectivity between and within subpopulations using Maxent, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis. Habitat suitability was highly influenced by abiotic geographical factors (altitude and precipitation) and less by ecological factors (habitat heterogeneity, plant productivity) and human disturbance (distance to settlements). The region had a relatively small amount of high and optimal suitability habitat (12.6% out of 93,700 km²) but all subpopulations seem to be far from carrying capacity, suggesting ample potential for further population growth. Landscape connectivity was higher between and within the west and far-west subpopulations, which should be considered a single subpopulation. The central and ea st subpopulations, however, had low to very low between-subpopulation connectivity. Conservation priorities include maintaining the current connectivity in the west subpopulation and across the border in the east, and protecting high-quality habitats in eastern Nepal. Restoring connectivity between the central and other subpopulations is possible if the number of elephants continues growing, and it should be a long-term conservation aspiration. Maintaining and enhancing landscape connectivity in this region requires transboundary cooperation and coordination between Nepali and Indian authorities. If successful, it will bring considerable benefits for the conservation of elephants and other wildlife.

Current and Future Approaches to Mitigate Conflict between Humans and Asian Elephants: The Potential Use of Aversive Geofencing Devices

Simple Summary

Conflict between humans and Asian elephants is a major conservation issue. Here we discuss common tools used to manage human-elephant conflict (HEC) in Asia and the potential of animal-borne satellite-linked shock collars or Aversive Geofencing Devices (AGDs) for managing problem elephants. Most current HEC mitigation tools lack the ability to be modified to accommodate needs of elephants and therefore are sometimes unsuccessful. AGDs currently used to manage livestock movement can be adapted to mitigate HEC to overcome this problem. AGDs can constantly monitor animal movements and be programmed to deliver sound warnings followed by electric shock whenever animals attempt to move across virtual boundaries demarcated by managers. Elephants fitted with AGDs are expected to learn to avoid the electric shock by associating it with the warning sound and move away from specified areas. Based on the potential shown by studies conducted using AGDs on other wild species, we suggest that experiments should be conducted with captive elephants to determine the efficacy and welfare impact of AGDs on elephants. Further, assessing public opinion on using AGDs on elephants will also be important. If elephants can learn to avoid virtual boundaries set by AGDs, it could help to significantly reduce HEC incidents.

Abstract

Asian elephants are a principal cause of human-wildlife conflict. This results in the death/injury of elephants and humans and large-scale crop and property damage. Most current human-elephant conflict (HEC) mitigation tools lack the flexibility to accommodate the ecological needs of elephants and are ineffective at reducing HEC in the long-term. Here we review common HEC mitigation tools used in Asia and the potential of Aversive Geofencing Devices (AGDs) to manage problem elephants. AGDs can be configured to monitor animal movements in real-time and deliver auditory warnings followed by electric stimuli whenever animals attempt to move across user-specified virtual boundaries. Thus, AGDs are expected to condition elephants to avoid receiving shocks and keep them away from virtually fenced areas, while providing alternative routes that can be modified if required. Studies conducted using AGDs with other species provide an overview of their potential in conditioning wild animals. We recommend that the efficacy and welfare impact of AGDs be evaluated using captive elephants along with public perception of using AGDs on elephants as a means of addressing the inherent deficiencies of common HEC mitigation tools. If elephants could be successfully conditioned to avoid virtual fences, then AGDs could resolve many HEC incidents throughout Asia.

Determining the diet of wild Asian elephants (Elephasmaximus) at human-elephant conflict areas in Peninsular Malaysia using DNA metabarcoding

Human-elephant conflict (HEC) contributes to the increasing death of Asian elephants due to road accidents, retaliatory killings and fatal infections from being trapped in snares. Understanding the diet of elephants throughout Peninsular Malaysia remains crucial to improve their habitat quality and reduce scenarios of HEC. DNA metabarcoding allows investigating the diet of animals without direct observation, especially in risky conflict areas. The aim of this study was to determine: i) the diet of wild Asian elephants from HEC areas in Peninsular Malaysia using DNA metabarcoding and ii) the influence of distinct environmental parameters at HEC locations on their feeding patterns. DNA was extracted from 39 faecal samples and pooled into 12 groups representing the different sample locations: Kuala Koh, Kenyir, Ulu Muda, Sira Batu, Kupang-Grik, Bumbun Tahan, Belum-Temengor, Grik, Kampung Pagi, Kampung Kuala Balah, Aring 10 and the National Elephant Conservation Centre, which served as a positive control for this study. DNA amplification and sequencing targeted the ribulose-bisphosphate carboxylase gene using the next-generation sequencing Illumina iSeq100 platform. Overall, we identified 35 orders, 88 families, 196 genera and 237 species of plants in the diet of the Asian elephants at HEC hotspots. Ficus (Moraceae), Curcuma (Zingiberaceae), Phoenix (Arecaceae), Maackia (Fabaceae), Garcinia (Clusiaceae) and Dichapetalum (Dichapetalaceae) were the highly abundant dietary plants. The plants successfully identified in this study could be used by the Department of Wildlife and National Parks (PERHILITAN) to create buffer zones by planting the recommended dietary plants around HEC locations and trails of elephants within Central Forest Spine (CFS) landscape.

The recent Asian elephant range expansion in Yunnan, China, is associated with climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes

Recently, the northward movement of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Yunnan, China, has attracted international attention. Climate change or human disturbances have been proposed to be the key drivers, but these hypotheses have not been rigorously tested. In this study, we quantified the relationship between climate change and human impacts on the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in southwest China. We found that the first observation probability of this species in a new place during 1959–2021 had a significant and positive association with change in air temperature and human density, resulting in a movement toward a high-latitude region with a warmer climate and higher human density; however, its association with precipitation was scale-dependent in time: positive or negative during the past 10 or 5 years, respectively. Under the enforced protection policy, human-dominated areas became preferred habitats for elephants. Our results indicate that climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes in the last few decades are significant drivers of the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in Yunnan, China. It is necessary to expand the current protected areas or habitat corridors toward the north or set up new reserves in the north and set up barriers between human settlements and elephant habitats to facilitate elephant movements and minimize human-elephant conflicts under accelerated global change.

Identifying the environmental and anthropogenic causes, distribution, and intensity of human rhesus macaque conflict in Nepal

Reducing conflict between humans and wildlife is considered a top conservation priority. However, increasingly human-induced disturbances across natural landscapes have escalated encounters between humans and wildlife. In Nepal, forests have been destroyed, fragmented, and developed for human settlements, agricultural production, and urban centers for decades. As a result, human-wildlife conflict, in the form of crop-raiding, livestock predation, and injuries to humans and wildlife, is common throughout the country. In particular, crop-raiding by macaques is an increasingly common form of human-wildlife conflict. Rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) have been identified as a top ten crop-raiding wildlife species in Nepal. In order to better understand the nationwide distribution and intensity of human-rhesus macaque conflict (HRMC), we conducted an extensive literature review of reported incidences of HRMC during the period 2000 to 2021 in Nepal. We also created an online survey to obtain nationwide data on the location and severity of HRMC, and modeled the set of ecological factors that affect habitat suitability for rhesus macaques. An ensemble of three different species distribution model (SDM) algorithms were used to analyze these data. We found that almost 44% of Nepal's land area contains suitable habitat for rhesus macaques, with less than 8% of all suitable habitat located in protected national parks. As humans continue to alter and fragment natural landscapes, HRMC in Nepal has intensified. At present, nearly 15% of the country's land area in which human settlements are permitted, is characterized by moderate or high rates of HRMC. We argue that prioritizing programs of forest restoration, strategic management plans designed to connect isolated forest fragments with high rhesus macaque population densities, creating government programs that compensate farmers for income lost due to crop-raiding, and educational outreach that informs local villagers of the importance of conservation and protecting biodiversity, offer the most effective solutions to reduce HRMC in Nepal.

A Review of Human-Elephant Ecological Relations in the Malay Peninsula: Adaptations for Coexistence

Understanding the relationship between humans and elephants is of particular interest for reducing conflict and encouraging coexistence. This paper reviews the ecological relationship between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the rainforests of the Malay Peninsula, examining the extent of differentiation of spatio-temporal and trophic niches. We highlight the strategies that people and elephants use to partition an overlapping fundamental niche. When elephants are present, forest-dwelling people often build above-the-ground shelters; and when people are present, elephants avoid open areas during the day. People are able to access several foods that are out of reach of elephants or inedible; for example, people use water to leach poisons from tubers of wild yams, use blowpipes to kill arboreal game, and climb trees to access honey. We discuss how the transition to agriculture affected the human–elephant relationship by increasing the potential for competition. We conclude that the traditional foraging cultures of the Malay Peninsula are compatible with wildlife conservation.

Living With Elephants: Evidence-Based Planning to Conserve Wild Elephants in a Megadiverse South East Asian Country

Theory of Change (ToC) and Social Return of Investment (SROI) are planning tools that help projects craft strategic approaches in order to create the most impact. In 2018, the Management & Ecology of Malaysian Elephants (MEME) carried out planning exercises using these tools to develop an Asian elephant conservation project with agriculture communities. First, a problem tree was constructed together with stakeholders, with issues arranged along a cause-and-effect continuum. There were 17 main issues identified, ranging from habitat connectivity and fragmentation, to the lack of tolerance toward wild elephants. All issues ultimately stemmed from a human mindset that favors human-centric development. The stakeholders recognize the need to extend conservation efforts beyond protected areas and move toward coexistence with agriculture communities for the survival of the wild elephants. We mapped previous Human-Elephant Conflict (HEC) management methods and other governmental policies in Malaysia against the problem tree, and provided an overview of the different groups of stakeholders. The ToC was developed and adapted for each entity, while including Asian elephants as a stakeholder in the project. From the SROI estimation, we extrapolated the intrinsic value of the wild Asian elephant population in Johor, Malaysia, to be conservatively worth at least MYR 7.3 million (USD 1.8 million) per year. From the overall calculations, the potential SROI value of the project is 18.96 within 5 years, meaning for every ringgit invested in the project, it generates MYR 18.96 (USD 4.74) worth of social return value. There are caveats with using these value estimations outside of the SROI context, which was thoroughly discussed. The SROI provides projects with the ability to justify to funders the social return values of its activities, which we have adapted to include the intrinsic value of an endangered megafauna. Moreover, SROI encourages projects to consider unintended impacts (i.e., replacement, displacement, and deadweight), and acknowledge contributions from stakeholders. The development of the problem tree and ToC via SROI approach, can help in clarifying priorities and encourage thinking out of the box. For this case study, we presented the thinking process, full framework and provided evidences to support the Theory of Change.

Descriptive Spatial Analysis of Human-Elephant Conflict (HEC) Distribution and Mapping HEC Hotspots in Keonjhar Forest Division, India

Escalation of human-elephant conflict (HEC) in India threatens its Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) population and victimizes local communities. India supports 60% of the total Asian elephant population in the world. Understanding HEC spatial patterns will ensure targeted mitigation efforts and efficient resource allocation to high-risk regions. This study deals with the spatial aspects of HEC in Keonjhar forest division, where 345 people were killed and 5,145 hectares of croplands were destroyed by elephant attacks during 2001–2018. We classified the data into three temporal phases (HEC1: 2001–2006, HEC2: 2007–2012, and HEC3: 2013–2018), in order to (1) derive spatial patterns of HEC; (2) identify the hotspots of HEC and its different types along with the number of people living in the high-risk zones; and (3) assess the temporal change in the spatial risk of HEC. Significantly dense clusters of HEC were identified in Keonjhar and Ghatgaon forest ranges throughout the 18 years, whereas Champua forest range became a prominent hotspot since HEC2. The number of people under HEC risk escalated from 14,724 during HEC1 and 34,288 in HEC2, to 65,444 people during HEC3. Crop damage was the most frequent form of HEC in the study area followed by house damage and loss of human lives. Risk mapping of HEC types and high priority regions that are vulnerable to HEC, provides a contextual background for researchers, policy makers and managers.