The effect of price and tax policies on the decision to smoke among men in Kenya

Cigarette prices and smoking among adults in eight sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey

BACKGROUND

Despite growing concern over tobacco use in sub-Saharan Africa, evidence on the association between cigarette prices and adult smoking behaviour in the region is limited.

OBJECTIVES

To provide new evidence on the association between cigarette prices and adult smoking in eight sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS

The analysis uses data from 51 270 individuals taken from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, which was conducted in eight African countries during 2012-2018. The relationship between prices and smoking is estimated using probit models for smoking participation and generalised linear models for conditional cigarette demand.

RESULTS

Higher prices are significantly associated with lower cigarette demand across African countries. The estimated price elasticity of participation is -0.362 (95% CI -0.547 to -0.177). The price elasticity of conditional cigarette demand is -0.133 (95% CI -0.194 to -0.072) for people who have just started smoking. The estimated total price elasticity of cigarette demand by new adult smokers is -0.495. The absolute value of the conditional demand elasticity becomes smaller by 0.004 units for each additional year that a person smokes. For the average smoker in the sample, with a smoking duration of 18.07 years, the total elasticity estimate is -0.422.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher cigarette prices significantly decrease the likelihood of smoking and decrease the intensity of cigarette consumption among African adults. Increases in the excise tax that increase the retail price of cigarettes will play an important role in reducing adult tobacco use on the continent. Governments are encouraged to increase excise taxes to improve public health.

Socioeconomic differences in the impact of prices and taxes on tobacco use in low- and middle-income countries-A systematic review

There is indisputable evidence that increases in taxes that raise tobacco prices reduce tobacco use. Consumption taxes on manufactured tobacco products, however, can be regressive in socioeconomic status (e.g., when the ratio of tax paid to income is lower for higher-income groups than for lower-income groups). Nevertheless, if the poor or less educated are more price responsive, a change in tobacco tax may be progressive in socioeconomic status. Existing reviews clearly indicate that populations with lower income or education are more responsive to tobacco tax and price changes than higher-income and more educated populations in high-income countries. Research pertaining to low- and middle-income countries was, however, limited and inconclusive. We conducted a review of quantitative studies that examined if socioeconomic status modified the association between prices and taxes and tobacco use in low- and middle-income countries. We searched two electronic databases, two search engines, and two working paper repositories. At least two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion, extracted detailed characteristics, and assessed the risk of bias of each included study. Thirty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, we found that the evidence in low- and middle-income countries was too limited and methodologically weak to make any conclusive statements. Our review highlights a number of data and methodological limitations in existing studies. The most important limitation was the lack of formal assessment of socioeconomic differences in price responsiveness. Only seven of 32 studies assessed statistically whether own-price effects were modified by socioeconomic status. Many modelling studies have examined the distributional effect of a tax increase on tobacco use, while assuming a strong own-price elasticity gradient in income. The poor were generally assumed to be more responsive to price by a factor of two to five, relative to the wealthy. Although there are theoretical reasons to expect poorer individuals to be more responsive to monetary prices than wealthy ones in low- and middle-income countries, our review provides little empirical support.

Effect of price on the decision to experiment with cigarette smoking among Gambian children: a survival analysis using the Gambia 2017 Global Youth Tobacco Survey data

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking experimentation among children in the Gambia, and thereby expanding the evidence base of the likely impact of excise taxes on cigarette demand in low-income and middle-income countries.

DESIGN

A survival analysis using the Gambia 2017 Global Youth Tobacco Survey data.

SETTING

The Gambia.

PARTICIPANTS

The survey sample was 12 585 youths, aged 12-17 years, but our analysis was restricted to 11 030 respondents with information on smoking status.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Our outcome variable was smoking experimentation defined as the first time the respondent smoked (at least part of) a cigarette.

RESULTS

A 1% increase in the price of cigarettes reduces the probability to experiment with smoking by 0.7%. We also found that children are more likely to experiment with smoking if they have at least one smoking parent, friends who smoke and see teachers who smoke. The probability to experiment with cigarette smoking increases with age and is higher among boys than girls.

CONCLUSION

There is strong evidence that increasing excise taxes can play an effective role in discouraging children from experimenting with cigarette smoking. Considering the relatively low excise tax burden in the Gambia, the government should consider substantially increasing the excise tax burden.

Effect of cigarette prices on cigarette consumption in Ghana

Introduction

Noncommunicable diseases are on the rise globally, with tobacco consumption being a major risk factor. Reducing tobacco consumption is an important step towards reducing the incidence and prevalence of many noncommunicable diseases. Tax and price measures have been proposed as tobacco control tools. This study investigated the link between cigarette prices and cigarette consumption in Ghana.

Methods

Annual time series data for the period 1980-2016 were used. The data came from diverse sources, including WHO, World Bank, and tobacco industry documents. Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), cointegration techniques, and three-stage least squares (3SLS) were used to analyze the data.

Results

After controlling for education, income, and population growth, we estimated that the price elasticity of cigarette demand is between -0.35 and -0.52 and statistically significant at 1% level. In the short run, the price elasticity is -0.1. Another variable that significantly reduced cigarette consumption during the period was education, with an elasticity between -1.7 and -2.7.

Conclusion

Cigarette demand in Ghana is influenced by cigarette prices and education. We conclude that tobacco taxes that significantly raise retail prices of cigarettes and higher education (including health education) will help reduce cigarette consumption.

Effect of relative income price on smoking initiation among adolescents in Ghana: evidence from pseudo-longitudinal data

OBJECTIVE

Many smokers initiate smoking during adolescence. Making tobacco products less affordable is one of the best ways to control tobacco use. Studies on the effect of relative income price (RIP (ie, affordability)) of cigarettes on smoking initiation are scarce in low-income and middle-income countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa where data are limited. The goal of this study is to examine the effect of cigarette RIP on adolescent smoking initiation in Ghana.

SETTING

The study uses a pseudo-longitudinal data set constructed from the Global Youth Tobacco Surveys (GYTS (2000-2009 and 2017)) and RIP for the most sold cigarette brand in Ghana.

PARTICIPANTS

The GYTS is a national survey on adolescents.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME

Effect of RIP on adolescent smoking initiation in Ghana.

RESULTS

Using the GYTS 2000-2009 data, we find that the probability of smoking initiation falls significantly in response to a higher RIP, with an elasticity of -0.372 (95% CI -0.701 to -0.042) for the unmatched sample and -0.490 (95% CI -0.818 to -0.161) for the matched sample. The RIP elasticity for women ((-0.888) (95% CI -1.384 to -0.392) and (-0.928) (95% CI -1.434 to -0.422)) is statistically significant at 1% in both the unmatched and the matched samples, respectively, while the RIP elasticity for men is statistically insignificant in the 2000-2009 surveys. Analysis of the 2017 GYTS shows a similar outcome: a negative relationship between RIP and smoking initiation, and the results are statistically significant for both men and women, and for both matched and unmatched samples.

CONCLUSION

The affordability (RIP) of cigarettes is negatively related to the probability of smoking initiation among adolescents in Ghana. Raising tobacco taxes in line with income growth would make cigarettes less affordable and dissuade adolescents from initiating smoking.

The Effect of Price and Tax Policies on the Decision to Smoke or Use Smokeless Tobacco in India

This paper investigates the impact of cigarette prices on adults' smoking and smokeless tobacco (SLT) use initiation and cessation decisions in India from 1980 to 2017. We use individual-level data from the 2017 Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) to recreate the smoking history of current or past adult tobacco users using self-reported data on the years of tobacco use, initiation, and cessation merged with historical data on cigarettes, bidis, and SLT product prices. To estimate the effect of price changes on smoking and SLT use transitions, we use a pooled linear model and propensity score matching (PSM) to construct an artificial treatment group where weights capture the likelihood of being an ever-smoker. We find that price increases are a statistically significant deterrent to smoking initiation, with price elasticity of initiation being on average -0.0236 (CI: -0.024 -0.023) and -0.000428 (0.0 - 0.0) for smoking and SLT, respectively. This implies, for example, that a 10% increase in prices results in a 0.24% smaller smoking initiation and 0.004% smaller SLT use initiation. We find that prices can also encourage quitting, but the effects are not always significant, with elasticities of 0.0218 (CI: 0.017 0.026) and 0.0026 (CI: 0.001 0.004) for smoking and SLT, respectively. This implies that a 10% increase in prices will result in a 0.22% increase in the probability of quitting smoking and a 0.03% increase in the probability of quitting SLT use. The elasticity varied by income group, gender, and between young and all adults, with larger effects among lower-income adults and especially among young females. Higher cigarette prices that can be achieved by tobacco tax increases can significantly reduce initiation and encourage cessation, thus improving public health, especially among the most vulnerable population subgroups.

Effects of foreign direct investment and trade on the prevalence of tobacco consumption in Africa: a panel study

Background

As African governments take measures to enhance international trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, a major concern is that, these measures can make Africa more vulnerable to the strategies of the tobacco industry. This concern is based on the fact that, each year, tobacco use is estimated to be responsible for the deaths of over eight million people in the world. However, there is very little empirical evidence to refute or confirm the above concern, especially in the African context. This study therefore investigates the effects of FDI and trade on the prevalence of tobacco consumption in Africa.

Methods

Data on a sample of 31 African countries for the period, 2010–2018 are used. The system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) regression model is employed as the empirical estimation technique.

Results

The findings show that, FDI and trade have negative and positive significant association with the prevalence of tobacco consumption respectively. These findings are robust even after using different specifications and indicators of FDI and trade.

Conclusion

Rising trade (and not FDI) should be of concern to African governments in the quest to reduce the prevalence of tobacco consumption on the continent.

The effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on the prevalence of smoking in Africa

BACKGROUND

Tobacco use continues to kill millions of people globally, making it one of the major causes of preventable deaths. Notwithstanding, there has been a very marginal fall in the prevalence of tobacco smoking in Africa. Since taxes (hence prices) are part of the main measures suggested to decrease the demand for tobacco products, this study investigates how tobacco taxation and pricing influence the prevalence of smoking in 24 African countries.

METHODS

Using panel data on 24 African countries sourced from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank databases for the period 2010 to 2016, this study employs the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to investigate the effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on the prevalence of smoking. The system GMM estimator is used due its ability to deal with potential endogeneity of tobacco taxation and pricing: the likelihood that the prevalence of smoking can influence tobacco taxation and pricing which may lead to biased estimates.

RESULTS

Tobacco taxation and pricing have negative significant effects on the prevalence of smoking among the selected countries after controlling for growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, urbanization, death rate and net inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Specifically, a percentage increase in tobacco price is found to decrease the prevalence of smoking by between 0.11 to 0.14%, while a percentage increase in tobacco tax decreases the prevalence of smoking by between 0.25 to 0.36%, all at 1% level of significance.

CONCLUSION

Since tobacco taxation and pricing are found to have negative significant effects on the prevalence of smoking, the implication is that, their use can be intensified by African policy makers towards achieving the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) recommended targets and hence decrease the prevalence of tobacco smoking in Africa. Doing so may therefore help in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.5 (prevention and treatment of substance abuse), thereby reducing the colossal number of smoking attributable deaths.

Quality and quantity of price elasticity of cigarette in Iran

OBJECTIVE

Effectiveness of tax policies to control cigarette consumption largely depends on the sensitivity of cigarette demand due to price change. Price elasticity is the measurement of this responsiveness. The main objective of this study is to measure quantity, and quality price elasticity of demand (PED) and cross-price elasticity of demand (XED) for Iranian and non-Iranian cigarette brands in Iran.

METHODS

This study used data from the 2017 Iranian household income and expenditures survey conducted in all 31 provinces of Iran. A total of 39,864 households were included in the survey. PED of quantity and quality and XED were estimated using restricted, unrestricted and quintile regression models.

RESULTS

Our results s show that the Iranian and non-Iranians brands cigarettes were price inelastic and elastic, respectively. XED between Iranian and non-Iranian brands was positive suggesting households' preference for Iranian brands of cigarettes over non-Iranian brands. Quintile regression results suggest that PED varied between -1.20 and -0.91 across the distribution of quantity demanded.

CONCLUSION

Imposing tax could be a useful policy tool to control smoking initiation and intensity in Iran. However, the effectiveness of such policy would depend on the better governance of taxation imposed on different brands of cigarettes.

Law and mental health: A bridge between individual neurobiology and the collective organization of behaviors

Mental disorders (MD) or mental symptoms (MS) have multifactorial causes. Today we know much more about the variables that cause individual MD\MS, but in our opinion these characterizations, although essential, are not sufficient to account for the complexity in which we live. For example, they do not explain in a coherent and empirically verifiable way how the biological individual relates to the social architecture in which he lives. This article presents a hypothesis that connects social and organizational structures to the emergence of symptoms and mental disorders in the population. It is our belief that some of these structures fundamentally impact the distribution of MD/MS in a population and the medical and psychological communities must consider this impact seriously. Laws aim at directing the behavior of groups of people, whose behavior is strictly interdependent with their neurobiology. Given the ability of laws to direct the behaviors that regulate social interactions, traumatic factors may be considered capable of linking a non-material object (e.g., a law) to a real effect (e.g., MS/MD). We discuss, as a paradigmatic example, the laws that regulate the use of psychotropic substances.

Determinants of smoking intensity in South Africa: Evidence from township communities

In order to analyze the smoking patterns in economically disadvantaged communities in South Africa, this paper examines the determinants of smoking intensity, using pooled data on price and non-price determinants of smoking from two cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2017 and 2018 to investigate the drivers of conditional cigarette demand among daily smokers. The analysis was done using a negative binomial regression. The results show that smokers reduce the number of cigarettes smoked daily when cigarette prices increase. The conditional price elasticity of cigarette demand of −0.295 for the overall sample shows that a 10% increase in cigarette price leads to a 2.95% decline in cigarette consumption among smokers. For young smokers, a 10% increase in cigarette price causes their smoking intensity to fall by 5%. Similar to other studies, the response of female smokers to cigarette price changes is statistically insignificant. Other factors affecting the conditional demand for cigarettes are education, race, single stick sales, gender, wealth, and age. We conclude that cigarette prices play a significant role in reducing smoking intensity among the South African poor. Since the magnitude of the price effect varies across age groups, races, and genders, the policy of higher tobacco excise taxes should be accompanied by interventions targeted at those less responsive to price-related measures.