Classifying alcohol control policies enacted between 2000 and 2020 in Poland and the Baltic countries to model potential impact

The impact of alcohol control policy on assaults and sexual assaults in Lithuania: An interrupted time-series analysis

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the current study was to test the impact of three alcohol control policy enactments (in 2008, 2017 and 2018) on assaults and sexual assaults in Lithuania. The hypothesis tested was that alcohol control policy implementation is associated with a reduction in the occurrence of both assaults and sexual assaults.

STUDY DESIGN

An interrupted time-series analysis.

METHODS

To estimate the unique impact of three alcohol control policies, interrupted time-series analyses were conducted. Three alcohol policy enactments, based on the World Health Organization "best buys" framework, and the following stringent criteria: (1) pricing policies had to have resulted in decreased affordability, defined in terms of the price of alcohol increasing at a higher degree than average disposable income; or (2) availability policies that aimed to reduce alcohol use for a large portion of the general population were selected for evaluation.

RESULTS

The alcohol control policy implemented in 2017 was statistically significantly associated with a reduction of 29.9 % (exp(-0.35379)-1) in the rate of sexual assaults, after adjusting for the financial recession and COVID-19-related lockdowns and smooth functions of time.

CONCLUSIONS

Study provides evidence that alcohol control policies, particularly those focusing on major alcohol tax increases that reduces alcohol affordability can contribute to reducing rates of sexual assault. The current findings, along with the consistent evidence linking alcohol use to sexual violence, supports the need for comprehensive strategies for mitigating violence to include alcohol.

Alcohol-Attributable Cancer: Update From the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol is a major risk factor for cancer development. Our study aimed to provide the updated global, regional and national burden of alcohol-attributable cancer.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We analysed the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to determine the death and age-standardised death rate (ASDR) from alcohol-attributable cancer and the change of these measures between 2000 and 2021 (reflected as annual percent change [APC]), classified by region, nation and country's developmental status, which is based on the sociodemographic index (SDI).

RESULTS

In 2021, there were 343,370 deaths globally from alcohol-attributable cancer, which was an increase from 2000 by 51%. Alcohol-attributable cancer accounted for 3.5% of all cancer deaths. Among alcohol-attributable cancer, liver cancer (27%) accounted for the highest mortality from alcohol, followed by oesophageal (24%) and colorectal cancer (16%). From 2000 to 2021, ASDR from alcohol-attributable cancer decreased (APC: -0.66%). Regionally, from 2000 to 2021, the fastest-growing ASDR was observed in South Asia. Classified by SDI, low (APC: 0.33%) and low-to-middle SDI countries (APC: 1.58%) exhibited an uptrend in ASDR from alcohol-attributable cancer. While the ASDR from all other cancers decreased, ASDR from early-onset (15-49 years) lip and oral cavity cancer increased (APC: 0.40%).

CONCLUSIONS

From 2000 to 2021, although the ASDR from alcohol-attributable cancer declined, the total number of deaths continued to rise. This trend was accompanied by variations across sociodemographic groups and cancer types, particularly gastrointestinal cancers. Urgent efforts are needed both globally and at regional levels to address the burden of alcohol-attributable cancers.

Evaluation of the national alcohol control strategy (Green Paper on Alcohol Policy) of Estonia

INTRODUCTION

Estonia is a Baltic country with high adult alcohol per capita (APC) consumption. Since 2013, its alcohol control policy has been guided by the Green Paper on Alcohol Policy (GP), which is the equivalent of a non-binding national alcohol action plan. This contribution attempts to evaluate the overall impact of the GP on APC.

METHODS

For the overall evaluation, APC was quantitatively compared for three periods: pre-GP (2000-2012), the core period of the GP (2013-2019) and the COVID-19 phase (2020-2022), using Analysis of Variance.

RESULTS

APC decreased on average by 0.25 L of pure alcohol per year in the 7 years defined as the core period of the GP, whereas it increased in the other periods between 2001 and 2022 (period 2001-2012: +0.47 L; 2020-2022: +0.27 L). These differences were statistically significant (F [1, 18] = 5.22, p = 0.035). Moreover, there was no overall trend of decreasing APC during the core period of the GP in neighbouring countries (Latvia, Lithuania and Poland).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The combination of the various measures of the national alcohol policy was associated with a marked decrease in APC.

The impact of an integrated alcohol policy: The example of Lithuania

INTRODUCTION

Although integrated alcohol policies, characterised by being consistent, structurally connected and interdependent, are considered to be best practices, very few evaluations of such policies exist. We evaluated the impact of two phases of integrated alcohol policies implemented in Lithuania in 2008/2009 and 2017/2018 on adult (15+ years of age) alcohol per capita consumption.

METHODS

Alcohol per capita consumption was the main outcome, based on national data from Statistics Lithuania. Time-series analyses using generalised additive mixed models were used, and unrecorded consumption trends were examined. A sensitivity analysis was conducted with data from the World Health Organization.

RESULTS

The two phases of integrated alcohol policies were associated with average reductions in adult alcohol per capita consumption of almost 1 litre (-0.88 L; 95% confidence interval -1.43; -0.34). Sensitivity analyses with comparable international data on Lithuania yielded similar results.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Integrated alcohol policies had a substantial effect on the average level of consumption. However, the effect of major single policies for Lithuania and other Baltic countries has been estimated to be of about the same magnitude. We conclude that in order to be successful, integrated alcohol policies should include at least one major effective population-based policy.

Economic development, alcohol consumption and life expectancy in low- and lower-middle-income countries in the Western Pacific Region: a structural equation modelling study

Introduction

Economic transition has historically been shown to be associated with longer life expectancy in current high-income countries. We examined the role of alcohol consumption in this transition process for lower- and middle-income countries.

Methods

We tested three hypotheses on the interrelationship between economic growth, level of alcohol consumption and life expectancy in all six countries in the WHO Western Pacific Region, which transitioned from low- to lower-middle-income countries over the past 20 years. Structural equation modelling, corrected for autoregressive effects, was used to test the association between economic development and life expectancy, adult per capita consumption of alcohol, the prevalence of past-year drinkers and alcohol-attributable mortality. The direct impact of alcohol per capita consumption (APC) on life expectancy was also estimated.

Results

Overall, economic development was strongly positively associated with both life expectancy and alcohol consumption, and a higher level of alcohol consumption resulted in a lowered life expectancy, when directly measured. Thus, changes in gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity of $ 1000 Int. were linked to changes in the same direction in life expectancy of 0.94% (95% CI 0.66%, 1.21%) and with an increase in APC of 76.8% (55.38%, 98.3%). Average loss in life expectancy due to alcohol consumption was 1.76 (0.81, 2.72) years for males and 0.59 (0.12, 1.07) for females. There was heterogeneity found between countries.

Conclusion

Alcohol consumption is expected to increase in an economic transition from a low- to lower-middle-income country and to have a negative impact on life expectancy. Alcohol control policies should be enacted to reap the full health benefits of economic growth.

The role of alcohol control policies in the reversal of alcohol consumption levels and resulting attributable harms in China

Yearly adult per capita consumption of alcohol in China between 2016 and 2019 decreased by 2.4 L of pure alcohol, or 33%. According to the World Health Organization, this decrease in consumption was accompanied by reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality of 23% between 2015 and 2019. This paper examines the contribution of alcohol control policies in China to these public health gains. A systematic search of the literature was conducted on alcohol control policies and their effectiveness in China as part of a larger search of all countries in WHO Western Pacific Region. In addition to articles on empirical evidence on the impact of such alcohol control policies, we also searched for reviews. The plausibility of changes of traditional alcohol control policies (taxation increases, availability restrictions, restriction on advertisement and marketing, drink-driving laws, screening and brief interventions) in explaining reductions of consumption levels and attributable mortality rates was explored. There was some progress in the successful implementation of strict drink-driving policies, which could explain reductions in traffic injuries, including fatalities. Other traditional alcohol control policies seem to have played a minimal role in reducing alcohol consumption and attributable harms during the time period 2016-2019. However, an anti-corruption campaign was extensive enough to have substantially contributed to these reductions. The campaign prohibited the consumption of alcoholic beverages in everyday life of government officials and thus contributed to a de-normalization of alcohol. While this anti-corruption campaign was the only policy to potentially explain marked decreases in levels of alcohol consumption and attributable mortality, more detailed research is required to determine exactly how the campaign achieved these decreases.

The impact of COVID-19-related national lockdowns on alcohol-related traffic collisions, injuries, and fatalities in Lithuania

BACKGROUND

The national lockdowns that occurred all over the world in response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have been found to have impacted alcohol use. The aim was to evaluate the impact of COVID-19-related national lockdowns on alcohol-related traffic collisions, injuries, and fatalities in Lithuania.

METHODS

Using monthly data from the Lithuanian Road Police Service for January 2004 to December 2022, we performed interrupted time-series analyses using a generalized additive model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19-related national lockdowns on alcohol-related traffic collisions, injuries, and fatalities. In Lithuania, the COVID-19-related lockdowns occurred from March 2020 to June 2020 and from November 2020 to June 2021.

RESULTS

Although overall rates for traffic collisions and injuries decreased during the COVID-19-related lockdowns in Lithuania, these lockdowns were associated with a 3.21% (95% CI: 1.19%, 5.23%) increase in the relative proportion of alcohol-related traffic collisions and a 2.46% (95% CI: 0.12%, 4.80%) increase in the relative proportion of alcohol-related traffic injuries. The association between the lockdowns and alcohol-related traffic fatalities was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19-related national lockdowns in Lithuania were associated with a decrease in the overall rate of traffic collisions and injuries, but an increase in the relative proportion of alcohol-related traffic collisions and injuries.

The effect of an annual temporary abstinence campaign on population-level alcohol consumption in Thailand: a time-series analysis of 23 years

RATIONALE

A small number of earlier studies have suggested an effect of temporary abstinence campaigns on alcohol consumption. However, all were based on self-reported consumption estimates.

OBJECTIVES

Using a time series of 23-year monthly alcohol sales data, this study examined the effect of an annual temporary abstinence campaign, which has been organised annually since 2003 during the Buddhist Lent period (spanning 3 months), on population-level alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Data used in the analysis included a time series of monthly alcohol sales data from January 1995 to September 2017 and the midyear population counts for those years. Generalised additive models (GAM) were applied to estimate trends as smooth functions of time, while identifying a relationship between the Buddhist Lent abstinence campaigns on alcohol consumption. The sensitivity analysis was performed using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model.

INTERVENTION

The Buddhist Lent abstinence campaign is a national mass media campaign combined with community-based activities that encourages alcohol abstinence during the Buddhist Lent period, spanning 3 months and varying between July and October depending on the lunar calendar. The campaign has been organised annually since 2003.

MAIN OUTCOME

Per capita alcohol consumption using monthly alcohol sales data divided by the midyear total population number used as a proxy.

RESULTS

Median monthly per capita consumption was 0.43 (IQR: 0.37 to 0.51) litres of pure alcohol. Over the study period, two peaks of alcohol consumption were in March and December of each year. The significant difference between before-campaign and after-campaign coefficients in the GAM, -0.102 (95% CI: -0.163 to -0.042), indicated an effect of the campaign on alcohol consumption after adjusting for the time trend and monthly seasonality, corresponding to an average reduction of 9.97% (95% CI: 3.65% to 24.18%). The sensitivity analyses produced similar results, where the campaign was associated with a decrease in consumption of 8.1% (95% CI: 0.4% to 15.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that the temporary abstinence campaign was associated with a decrease in population-level alcohol consumption during campaign periods. The finding contributed to a growing body of evidence on the effectiveness of emerging temporary abstinence campaigns.

The Impact of Raising Alcohol Taxes on Government Tax Revenue: Insights from Five European Countries

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Reducing the affordability of alcoholic beverages by increasing alcohol excise taxation can lead to a reduction in alcohol consumption but the impact on government alcohol excise tax revenue is poorly understood. This study aimed to (a) describe cross-country tax revenue variations and (b) investigate how changes in taxation were related to changes in government tax revenue, using data from Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

METHODS

For the population aged 15 years or older, we calculated the annual per capita alcohol excise tax revenue, total tax revenue, gross domestic product and alcohol consumption. In addition to descriptive analyses, joinpoint regressions were performed to identify whether changes in alcohol excise taxation were linked to changes in alcohol excise revenue since 1999.

RESULTS

In 2022, the per capita alcohol excise tax revenue was lowest in Germany (€44.2) and highest in Estonia (€218.4). In all countries, the alcohol excise tax revenue was mostly determined by spirit sales (57-72% of total alcohol tax revenue). During 2010-20, inflation-adjusted per capita alcohol excise tax revenues have declined in Germany (- 22.9%), Poland (- 19.1%) and Estonia (- 4.2%) and increased in Latvia (+ 56.8%) and Lithuania (+ 49.3%). In periods of policy non-action, alcohol consumption and tax revenue showed similar trends, but tax level increases were accompanied by increased revenue and stagnant or decreased consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing alcohol taxation was not linked to decreased but increased government revenue. Policymakers can increase revenue and reduce alcohol consumption and harm by increasing alcohol taxes.

Trends of alcohol-attributable deaths in Lithuania 2001-2021: epidemiology and policy conclusions

BACKGROUND

Lithuania, a Baltic country in the European Union, can be characterized by high alcohol consumption and attributable burden. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the mortality burden due to alcohol use for the past two decades based on different relative risk functions, identify trends, and analyse the associations of alcohol-attributable burden with alcohol control policies and life expectancy.

METHODS

The standard methodology used by the World Health Organization for estimating alcohol-attributable mortality was employed to generate mortality rates for alcohol-attributable mortality, standardized for Lithuania's 2021 population distribution. Joinpoint analysis, T-tests, correlations, and regression analyses including meta-regressions were used to describe trends and associations.

RESULTS

Age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality was high in Lithuania during the two decades between 2001 and 2021, irrespective of which relative risks were used for the estimates. Overall, there was a downward trend, mainly in males, which was associated with four years of intensive implementation of alcohol control policies in 2008, 2009, 2017, and 2018. For the remaining years, the rates of alcohol-attributable mortality were stagnant. Among males, the correlations between alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy were 0.90 and 0.76 for Russian and global relative risks respectively, and regression analyses indicated a significant association between changes in alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy, after controlling for gross domestic product.

CONCLUSIONS

Male mortality and life expectancy in Lithuania were closely linked to alcohol-attributable mortality and markedly associated with strong alcohol control policies. Further implementation of such policies is predicted to lead to further improvements in life expectancy.

Alcohol-attributable mortality and alcohol control policy in the Baltic Countries and Poland in 2001-2020: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

The Baltic countries-Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia-are characterized by a high rate of fully alcohol-attributable mortality, compared with Poland. Alcohol control policy measures implemented since 2001 in the Baltic countries included a restriction on availability and an increase in excise taxation, among others. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the relationship between alcohol control policy implementation and alcohol-attributable mortality in the Baltic countries and Poland.

METHODS

Alcohol-attributable mortality data for 2001-2020 was defined by codes 100% alcohol-attributable for persons aged 15 years and older in the Baltic countries and Poland. Alcohol control policies implemented between 2001 and 2020 were identified, and their impact on alcohol-attributable mortality was evaluated using an interrupted time-series methodology by employing a generalized additive model.

RESULTS

Alcohol-attributable mortality was significantly higher in the Baltic countries, compared with Poland, for both males and females. In the final reduced model, alcohol control policy significantly reduced male alcohol-attributable mortality by 7.60% in the 12 months post-policy implementation. For females, the alcohol control policy mean-shift effect was higher, resulting in a significant reduction of alcohol-attributable mortality by 10.77% in the 12 months post-policy implementation. The interaction effects of countries and policy tested in the full model were not statistically significant, which indicated that the impact of alcohol control policy on alcohol-attributable mortality did not differ across countries for both males and females.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the findings of the current study, alcohol control policy in the form of reduced availability and increased taxation was associated with a reduction in alcohol-attributable mortality among both males and females.

Impact of the WHO "best buys" for alcohol policy on consumption and health in the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020

Alcohol use is a major risk factor for burden of disease. This narrative review aims to document the effects of major alcohol control policies, in particular taxation increases and availability restrictions in the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) between 2000 and 2020. These measures have been successful in curbing alcohol sales, in general without increasing consumption of alcoholic beverages from unrecorded sources; although for more recent changes this may have been partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, findings from time-series analyses suggest improved health, measured as reductions in all-cause and alcohol-attributable mortality, as well as narrowing absolute mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated groups. For most outcomes, there were sex differences observed, with alcohol control policies more strongly affecting males. In contrast to this successful path, alcohol control policies were mostly dismantled in the neighbouring country of Poland, resulting in a rising death toll due to liver cirrhosis and other alcohol-attributable deaths. The natural experiment in this region of high-income European countries with high consumption levels highlights the importance of effective alcohol control policies for improving population health.

A narrative review of alcohol control policies in Latvia between 1990 and 2020

ISSUES

Latvia has one of the highest alcohol per capita consumption in Europe. This study provides a narrative review of all evidence-based population-level alcohol control policies implemented in Latvia during the past 30 years.

APPROACH

A review of country-level alcohol control policies implemented in Latvia between 1990 and 2020 was conducted. The World Health Organization's "best buys" and other recommended interventions for alcohol control were used to guide the search.

KEY FINDINGS

Alcohol control policies in Latvia have evolved significantly over the last three decades. The most changes to alcohol control policy occurred in the transitional period between regaining independence in 1991 and joining the European Union in 2004. A number of significant alcohol control policies have been implemented to reduce alcohol availability and affordability, to restrict alcohol marketing and to counter drunk-driving. However, since 2010, when an increasing trend of alcohol consumption was observed, there has been a reluctance to pursue national public health policy actions to reduce alcohol consumption, and few adjustments to legislation to increase alcohol control have been made.

IMPLICATIONS

Despite the progress in alcohol control, Latvia still has considerable potential for strengthening alcohol control to reduce the high levels of alcohol consumption.

CONCLUSION

Although several alcohol control policies have been established in Latvia, many of the planned activities to limit alcohol intake and related harm have not been executed. Public health goals rather than political and economic incentives should be prioritised to reduce high levels of alcohol consumption in Latvia.

Alcohol control policies reduce all-cause mortality in Baltic Countries and Poland between 2001 and 2020

Alcohol consumption in the Baltic countries and Poland is among the highest globally, causing high all-cause mortality rates. Contrary to Poland, the Baltic countries have adopted many alcohol control policies, including the World Health Organization (WHO) "best buys". The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of these policies, which were implemented between 2001 and 2020, on all-cause mortality. Monthly mortality data for men and women aged 20+ years of age in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland were analysed for 2001 to 2020. A total of 19 alcohol control policies, fulfilling an a-priori defined definition, were implemented between 2001 and 2020 in the countries of interest, and 18 of them could be tested. Interrupted time-series analyses were conducted by employing a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) for men and women separately. The age-standardized all-cause mortality rate was lowest in Poland and highest in Latvia and had decreased in all countries over the time period. Taxation increases and availability restrictions had short-term effects in all countries, on average reducing the age-standardized all-cause mortality rate among men significantly (a reduction of 2.31% (95% CI 0.71%, 3.93%; p = 0.0045)). All-cause mortality rates among women were not significantly reduced (a reduction of 1.09% (95% CI - 0.02%, 2.20%; p = 0.0554)). In conclusion, the alcohol control policies implemented between 2001 and 2020 reduced all-cause mortality among men 20+ years of age in Baltic countries and Poland, and thus, the practice should be continued.