Characteristics of climate change refugia for Australian biodiversity

Managing climate-change refugia to prevent extinctions

Earth is facing simultaneous biodiversity and climate crises. Climate-change refugia - areas that are relatively buffered from climate change - can help address both of these problems by maintaining biodiversity components when the surrounding landscape no longer can. However, this capacity to support biodiversity is often vulnerable to severe climate change and other stressors. Thus, management actions need to consider the complex and multidimensional nature of refugia. We outline an approach to understand refugia-promoting processes and to evaluate refugial capacity to determine suitable management actions. Our framework applies climate-change refugia as tools to facilitate resistance in modern conservation planning. Such refugia-focused management can reduce extinctions and maintain biodiversity under climate change.

Habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under CMIP6 climate scenarios

BACKGROUND

Spatial information about the location and suitability of areas for native plant and animal species under different climate futures is an important input to land use and conservation planning and management. Australia, renowned for its abundant species diversity and endemism, often relies on modeled data to assess species distributions due to the country's vast size and the challenges associated with conducting on-ground surveys on such a large scale. The objective of this article is to develop habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under different climate futures.

RESULTS

Using MaxEnt, we produced Australia-wide habitat suitability maps under RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP7.0-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5 climate futures for 1,382 terrestrial vertebrates and 9,251 vascular plants vascular plants at 5 km2 for open access. This represents 60% of all Australian mammal species, 77% of amphibian species, 50% of reptile species, 71% of bird species, and 44% of vascular plant species. We also include tabular data, which include summaries of total quality-weighted habitat area of species under different climate scenarios and time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial data supplied can help identify important and sensitive locations for species under various climate futures. Additionally, the supplied tabular data can provide insights into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Australia. These habitat suitability maps can be used as input data for landscape and conservation planning or species management, particularly under different climate change scenarios in Australia.

Linking life history to landscape for threatened species conservation in a multiuse region

Landscape-scale conservation that considers metapopulation dynamics will be essential for preventing declines of species facing multiple threats to their survival. Toward this end, we developed a novel approach that combines occurrence records, spatial-environmental data, and genetic information to model habitat, connectivity, and patterns of genetic structure and link spatial attributes to underlying ecological mechanisms. Using the threatened northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) as a case study, we applied this approach to address the need for conservation decision-making tools that promote resilient metapopulations of this threatened species in the Pilbara, Western Australia, a multiuse landscape that is a hotspot for biodiversity and mining. Habitat and connectivity were predicted by different landscape characteristics. Whereas habitat suitability was overwhelmingly driven by terrain ruggedness, dispersal was facilitated by proximity to watercourses. Although there is limited evidence for major physical barriers in the Pilbara, areas with high silt and clay content (i.e., alluvial and hardpan plains) showed high resistance to dispersal. Climate subtlety shaped distributions and patterns of genetic turnover, suggesting the potential for local adaptation. By understanding these spatial-environmental associations and linking them to life-history and metapopulation dynamics, we highlight opportunities to provide targeted species management. To support this, we have created habitat, connectivity, and genetic uniqueness maps for conservation decision-making in the region. These tools have the potential to provide a more holistic approach to conservation in multiuse landscapes globally.

Identifying the Factors behind Climate Diversification and Refugial Capacity in Mountain Landscapes: The Key Role of Forests

Recent studies have shown the importance of small-scale climate diversification and climate microrefugia for organisms to escape or suffer less from the impact of current climate change. These situations are common in topographically complex terrains like mountains, where many climate-forcing factors vary at a fine spatial resolution. We investigated this effect in a high roughness area of a southern European range (the Pyrenees), with the aid of a network of miniaturized temperature and relative humidity sensors distributed across 2100 m of elevation difference. We modeled the minimum (Tn) and maximum (Tx) temperatures above- and below-ground, and maximum vapor pressure deficit (VPDmax), as a function of several topographic and vegetation variables derived from ALS-LiDAR data and Landsat series. Microclimatic models had a good fit, working better in soil than in air, and for Tn than for Tx. Topographic variables (including elevation) had a larger effect on above-ground Tn, and vegetation variables on Tx. Forest canopy had a significant effect not only on the spatial diversity of microclimatic metrics but also on their refugial capacity, either stabilizing thermal ranges or offsetting free-air extreme temperatures and VPDmax. Our integrative approach provided an overview of microclimatic differences between air and soil, forests and open areas, and highlighted the importance of preserving and managing forests to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Remote-sensing can provide essential tools to detect areas that accumulate different factors extensively promoting refugial capacity, which should be prioritized based on their high resilience.

Evidence of Range Shifts in Riparian Plant Assemblages in Response to Multidecadal Streamflow Declines

Riparian corridors are thought to form hydrological refugia that may buffer species and communities against regional climate changes. In regions facing a warming and drying climate, however, the hydrological regime driving riparian communities is also under threat. We examined recruitment in response to streamflow declines for species inhabiting the riparian zone in southwest Western Australia, testing the extent to which the riparian system has buffered riparian communities from the drying climate. We stratified 49 vegetation transects across the >600 mm per annum regional rainfall gradient encompassed by the Warren River Catchment. Local hydrological conditions were estimated over two 10-year periods; 1980–1989, and 2001–2010, to quantify changes in the flood regime. Mixed effects models tested the relationship between rainfall and flooding on the relative frequency of immature to mature individuals of 17 species of trees and shrubs common to the riparian zones. At the low-rainfall extent of their geographic range, the relative frequency of immature riparian species decreased with declining flow, whereas at the high-rainfall extent of their geographic range the relative frequency of immature individuals increased with declining flow. These results suggest that the geographic ranges of riparian species may be contracting at the low-rainfall margin of their range, while at the high-rainfall margin of their geographic range, reduced flooding regimes appear to be opening up new habitat suitable for recruitment and narrowing the river corridor. No such patterns were observed in upland species, suggesting the river may be buffering upland species. We discuss these findings and their implications for ongoing management and species conservation in a region projected to face further, significant rainfall declines.

The distribution, habitat preference and population dynamics of the pale field-rat (Rattus tunneyi) at Edel Land, Shark Bay, Western Australia: the role of refuges and refugia in population persistence

Abstract ContextThe pale field-rat (Rattus tunneyi) is a small native rat that formerly had a wide distribution throughout Australia. It has suffered substantial range contraction since European settlement and is now largely absent from arid and semiarid Australia. In this biome, it was known to persist only at two Western Australian locations: Edel Land, on the south-western shore of Shark Bay, and islands off the Pilbara coast. AimsWe aimed to establish the extent of the species range at Edel Land, its habitat preference, the temporal stability of its populations with respect to rainfall, and threats to its persistence. MethodsWe trapped at 54 sites to establish distribution and habitat preference, and re-trapped four of these sites at which R. tunneyi was present in each season for 2.5 years to establish trends in abundance. Key resultsTrapping resulted in the capture of 45 R. tunneyi individuals across 17 of 54 sites (4104 trap-nights; 1.1% capture success). Rattus tunneyi typically occupied localised areas of dense shrubland, often in habitats with free water or near-surface moisture from drainage from high dunes allowing denser and taller vegetation and, at some sites, year-round growth of grasses or rushes. Regular re-trapping of four sites in each season (2002 – 2004) suggested a declining population, probably owing to a sequence of dry years. Key conclusionsRattus tunneyi at Shark Bay occurred only in localised mesic refuges, apparently dependent on seepage from high dunes generated by major inputs of rainfall from infrequent cyclones or sequences of high-rainfall years. ImplicationsThis isolated population is likely to be threatened by browsing by feral goats, opening up otherwise densely vegetated habitats of refuge areas, and their trampling of R. tunneyi burrows; by the depletion of grasses from herbivory by European rabbits; and by the long-term impact of a drying climate. It is unlikely to persist without effective on-going management, particularly of the goat population.

Climate-change refugia: biodiversity in the slow lane

Climate-change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate-change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long-term, network-based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as "slow lanes" rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.

Extensive range contraction predicted under climate warming for a gliding mammal in north-eastern Australia

We used MaxEnt to model the current distribution of the yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis) and to predict the likely shift in the species’ future distribution under climate-warming scenarios in the Wet Tropics (WT) Bioregion in north Queensland and in the South-eastern Queensland (SEQld) Bioregion, which encompasses south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales. Bioclimatic layers were used to generate models from 57 independent records in the WT and 428 records in SEQld. The modelled distribution of core habitat under current climate showed a good fit to the data, encompassing 91% and 88% of the records in each area, respectively. Modelling of future warming scenarios suggests that large contractions in distribution could occur in both bioregions. In the WT, 98% of core habitat is predicted to be lost under low warming (1°C increase) and 100% under high warming (2−3°C increase) by 2070. In SEQld, 80% of core habitat is predicted to be lost under low warming and 90% under high warming by 2070. These results suggest that this species is highly vulnerable to climate warming and highlight the importance of focusing conservation efforts at the bioregional scale. There is also a need to identify potential thermal refuges and ensure habitat connectivity.

Towards an eco-evolutionary understanding of endemism hotspots and refugia

BACKGROUND

Refugia are island-like habitats that are linked to long-term environmental stability and, as a result, high endemism. Conservation of refugia and endemism hotspots should be based on a deep ecological and evolutionary understanding of their functioning, which remains limited. Although functional traits can provide such insights, a corresponding, coherent framework is lacking.

PROPOSED FRAMEWORK

Plant communities in refugia and endemism hotspots should, due to long-term environmental stability, display unique functional characteristics linked to distinct phylogenetic patterns. Therefore, such communities should be characterized by a functional signature that exhibits: (1) distinct values and combinations of traits, (2) higher functional diversity and (3) a prevalence of similar traits belonging to more distantly related lineages inside, compared to outside, of endemism hotspots and refugia. While the limited functional trait data available from refugia and endemism hotspots do not allow these predictions to be tested rigorously, three potential applications of the functional signature in biogeography and conservation planning are highlighted. Firstly, it allows the functional characteristics of endemism hotspots and refugia to be identified. Secondly, the strength of the functional signature can be compared among these entities, and with the surrounding landscape, to provide an estimate of the capacity of endemism hotspots and refugia to buffer environmental changes. Finally, the pattern of the functional signature can reveal ecological and evolutionary processes driving community assembly and functioning, which can assist in predicting the effect of environmental changes (e.g. climate, land-use) on communities in endemism hotspots and refugia.

CONCLUSION

The proposed functional signature concept allows the systematic integration of plant functional traits and phylogeny into the study of endemism hotspots and refugia, but more data on functional traits in these entities are urgently needed. Overcoming this limitation would facilitate rigorous testing of the proposed predictions for the functional signature, advancing the eco-evolutionary understanding of endemism hotspots and refugia.

Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes

Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by timber harvesting, suggesting ecologically sustainable harvesting may be compatible with climate refugia.

Havens for threatened Australian mammals: the contributions of fenced areas and offshore islands to the protection of mammal species susceptible to introduced predators

Context Many Australian mammal species are highly susceptible to predation by introduced domestic cats (Felis catus) and European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). These predators have caused many extinctions and have driven large distributional and population declines for many more species. The serendipitous occurrence of, and deliberate translocations of mammals to, ‘havens’ (cat- and fox-free offshore islands, and mainland fenced exclosures capable of excluding cats and foxes) has helped avoid further extinction. Aims The aim of this study was to conduct a stocktake of current island and fenced havens in Australia and assess the extent of their protection for threatened mammal taxa that are most susceptible to cat and fox predation. Methods Information was collated from diverse sources to document (1) the locations of havens and (2) the occurrence of populations of predator-susceptible threatened mammals (naturally occurring or translocated) in those havens. The list of predator-susceptible taxa (67 taxa, 52 species) was based on consensus opinion from >25 mammal experts. Key results Seventeen fenced and 101 island havens contain 188 populations of 38 predator-susceptible threatened mammal taxa (32 species). Island havens cover a larger cumulative area than fenced havens (2152km2 versus 346km2), and reach larger sizes (largest island 325km2, with another island of 628km2 becoming available from 2018; largest fence: 123km2). Islands and fenced havens contain similar numbers of taxa (27 each), because fenced havens usually contain more taxa per haven. Populations within fences are mostly translocated (43 of 49; 88%). Islands contain translocated populations (30 of 139; 22%); but also protect in situ (109) threatened mammal populations. Conclusions Havens are used increasingly to safeguard threatened predator-susceptible mammals. However, 15 such taxa occur in only one or two havens, and 29 such taxa (43%) are not represented in any havens. The taxon at greatest risk of extinction from predation, and in greatest need of a haven, is the central rock-rat (Zyzomys pedunculatus). Implications Future investment in havens should focus on locations that favour taxa with no (or low) existing haven representation. Although havens can be critical for avoiding extinctions in the short term, they cover a minute proportion of species’ former ranges. Improved options for controlling the impacts of cats and foxes at landscape scales must be developed and implemented.

Thermal biology of the spotted snow skink, Niveoscincus ocellatus, along an altitudinal gradient

Body temperatures in ectotherms are strongly affected by their thermal environment. Ectotherms respond to variation in the thermal environment either by modification of behavioural thermoregulation to maintain their optimal body temperature or by shifting their optimal body temperature. In this study, the body temperatures of males of three populations of spotted snow skinks, Niveoscincus ocellatus, living along an altitudinal gradient (low, mid, and high altitude) were studied in the field and laboratory in spring, summer, and autumn, representing the full activity period of this species. The environmental variation across both sites and seasons affected their field active body temperatures. At the low and mid altitude, N. ocellatus had a higher mean body temperature than at the high altitude. Animals achieved their thermal preference at the low and mid altitude sites in all seasons. At the high altitude, however, N. ocellatus struggled to reach its preferred body temperatures, especially in autumn. The lower body temperature at the high-altitude site is likely due to limited thermal opportunity and/or an effect of avoiding the costs associated with increased intensity of basking.

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales.

Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia

With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species.

Phylogeographic evidence for evolutionary refugia in the Gulf sandstone ranges of northern Australia

Locating and protecting climate change refugia is important to conserving biodiversity with accelerating climate change. Comparative phylogeographic analysis provides an effective tool for locating such refugia, as long-term retention of one or more populations within a refugial landscape will generate unique genetic lineages. The ranges of the western Gulf region of northern Australia are thought to represent a significant arid-zone refugium, in which case low-dispersal organisms should have strong phylogeographic structure across the region. To test for this, we conducted extensive sampling of three species of Gehyra geckos and analysed diversity for mitochondrial DNA and eight nuclear loci. These analyses revealed congruent and high phylogeographic diversity, especially, but not exclusively, in rock-restricted species. This finding, and other recent phylogeographic evidence, demonstrates that these topographically variable landforms have enabled persistence of ecologically diverse vertebrate species through the climate changes of the late Pleistocene. Identification of this relatively under-protected region as a significant climate change refugium points to the need to expand protected areas in this region and to invest in ecological management across existing National Parks and Indigenous Protected Areas.

Vive la résistance: reviving resistance for 21st century conservation

Confronted with increasing anthropogenic change, conservation in the 21st century requires a sound understanding of how ecological systems change during disturbance. We highlight the benefits of recognizing two distinct components of change in an ecological unit (i.e., ecosystem, community, population): 'resistance', the ability to withstand disturbance; and 'resilience', the capacity to recover following disturbance. By adopting a 'resistance-resilience' framework, important insights for conservation can be gained into: (i) the key role of resistance in response to persistent disturbance, (ii) the intrinsic attributes of an ecological unit associated with resistance and resilience, (iii) the extrinsic environmental factors that influence resistance and resilience, (iv) mechanisms that confer resistance and resilience, (v) the post-disturbance status of an ecological unit, (vi) the nature of long-term ecological changes, and (vii) policy-relevant ways of communicating the ecological impacts of disturbance processes.

Anticipated climate and land-cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo's orang-utans

Habitat loss and climate change pose a double jeopardy for many threatened taxa, making the identification of optimal habitat for the future a conservation priority. Using a case study of the endangered Bornean orang-utan, we identify environmental refuges by integrating bioclimatic models with projected deforestation and oil-palm agriculture suitability from the 1950s to 2080s. We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm with information on habitat needs to predict suitable habitat for the present day and 1950s. We then projected to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in models incorporating only land-cover change, climate change or both processes combined. For future climate, we incorporated projections from four model and emission scenario combinations. For future land cover, we developed spatial deforestation predictions from 10 years of satellite data. Refuges were delineated as suitable forested habitats identified by all models that were also unsuitable for oil palm - a major threat to tropical biodiversity. Our analyses indicate that in 2010 up to 260,000 km(2) of Borneo was suitable habitat within the core orang-utan range; an 18-24% reduction since the 1950s. Land-cover models predicted further decline of 15-30% by the 2080s. Although habitat extent under future climate conditions varied among projections, there was majority consensus, particularly in north-eastern and western regions. Across projections habitat loss due to climate change alone averaged 63% by 2080, but 74% when also considering land-cover change. Refuge areas amounted to 2000-42,000 km(2) depending on thresholds used, with 900-17,000 km(2) outside the current species range. We demonstrate that efforts to halt deforestation could mediate some orang-utan habitat loss, but further decline of the most suitable areas is to be expected given projected changes to climate. Protected refuge areas could therefore become increasingly important for ongoing translocation efforts. We present an approach to help identify such areas for highly threatened species given environmental changes expected this century.

More famine than feast: pattern and variation in a potentially degenerating mammal fauna on Cape York Peninsula

Context Global mammal populations continue to be threatened by environmental change, and recent decadal monitoring in northern Australia suggests a collapse in mammal abundance in key locations. Cape York Peninsula has globally significant natural values but there is very little published about the status and distribution of mammals in this region. Aims Following an extensive field survey we investigated two key questions: (i) what is the composition, spatial variation and change from previous regional surveys in the mid to late 1900s in the native terrestrial and arboreal mammal fauna recorded; and (ii) which landscape and site factors best predict mammal richness and abundance. Methods We sampled 202 one-hectare sites across seven locations from 2009 to 2012 in woodlands, closed forestand dune scrub and tussock grasslands. We collected landscape and site-based environmental data for each location, representing fire, weather and vegetation factors. We used generalised linear mixed models to examine the relationship between mammals and these factors. Key results Mammals were generally scarce across the sites and were more abundant and species rich in wet coastal grasslands or closed forests then tropical savanna woodlands. Fire frequency data and the surrounding vegetation complexity were consistent landscape-scale predictors of mammals; ground cover and woody complexity were significant at the site scale. Conclusions Notwithstanding interpretational constraints related to the limited evidence base of historic sampling, the mammal fauna recorded in this study for Cape York Peninsula was similar in composition to the mammal fauna described from 1948–1980 and surveys in 1985, with some species seemingly declining (e.g. Melomys burtoni, Dasyurus hallucatus, Sminthopsis virginiae) and others stable (e.g. Rattus sordidus) or more common (e.g. Rattus tunneyi); however, across all sites abundance was low, and many sites had few or no mammals. Implications In the absence of consistent long-term systematic monitoring it is difficult to determine if this survey and historical surveys represent pre-European patterns for mammals. The absence or low abundance of mammals in most sites suggest that cotemporary patterns may not represent an intact mammal fauna. Due to the equivocal nature of these findings a critical next step is to establish robust monitoring and experimental work to reveal the response of mammals to management interventions.