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Bowe AK, Lightbody G, O'Boyle DS, Staines A, Murray DM. Predicting low cognitive ability at age 5 years using perinatal data and machine learning. Pediatr Res 2024; 95:1634-1643. [PMID: 38177251 PMCID: PMC11126385 DOI: 10.1038/s41390-023-02914-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2023] [Revised: 10/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/03/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There are no early, accurate, scalable methods for identifying infants at high risk of poor cognitive outcomes in childhood. We aim to develop an explainable predictive model, using machine learning and population-based cohort data, for this purpose. METHODS Data were from 8858 participants in the Growing Up in Ireland cohort, a nationally representative study of infants and their primary caregivers (PCGs). Maternal, infant, and socioeconomic characteristics were collected at 9-months and cognitive ability measured at age 5 years. Data preprocessing, synthetic minority oversampling, and feature selection were performed prior to training a variety of machine learning models using ten-fold cross validated grid search to tune hyperparameters. Final models were tested on an unseen test set. RESULTS A random forest (RF) model containing 15 participant-reported features in the first year of infant life, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.77 for predicting low cognitive ability at age 5. This model could detect 72% of infants with low cognitive ability, with a specificity of 66%. CONCLUSIONS Model performance would need to be improved before consideration as a population-level screening tool. However, this is a first step towards early, individual, risk stratification to allow targeted childhood screening. IMPACT This study is among the first to investigate whether machine learning methods can be used at a population-level to predict which infants are at high risk of low cognitive ability in childhood. A random forest model using 15 features which could be easily collected in the perinatal period achieved an AUROC of 0.77 for predicting low cognitive ability. Improved predictive performance would be required to implement this model at a population level but this may be a first step towards early, individual, risk stratification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea K Bowe
- INFANT Research Centre, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.
| | - Gordon Lightbody
- INFANT Research Centre, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
- Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
| | | | - Anthony Staines
- School of Nursing, Psychotherapy, and Community Health, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Deirdre M Murray
- INFANT Research Centre, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
- Department of Paediatrics, Cork University Hospital, Cork, Ireland
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Duggan C, Irvine AD, O'B Hourihane J, Kiely ME, Murray DM. ASQ-3 and BSID-III's concurrent validity and predictive ability of cognitive outcome at 5 years. Pediatr Res 2023; 94:1465-1471. [PMID: 36841883 PMCID: PMC10589087 DOI: 10.1038/s41390-023-02528-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2022] [Revised: 01/20/2023] [Accepted: 01/28/2023] [Indexed: 02/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early detection of cognitive disability is challenging. We assessed the domain-specific, concurrent validity of the ages and stages questionnaire (ASQ-3) and the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (BSID-III), and their ability to predict cognitive delay at school age. METHODS Within a longitudinal birth cohort study, a nested cohort of children was assessed using ASQ-3 and BSID-III at 24 months, and at 5 years using the Kaufmann brief IQ test (KBIT). RESULTS 278 children were assessed using BSID-III and ASQ-3 at 24-months; mean(SD) BW = 3445(506) grams, M:F ratio=52:48. ASQ-3 had reasonable predictive ability (AUROC, p value, sensitivity:specificity) of same domain delay for motor (0.630, p = 0.008, 50%:76.1%) and language (0.623, p = 0.010, 25%:99.5%) at 2 years, but poor ability to detect cognitive delay compared to BSID-III (0.587, p = 0.124, 20.7%/96.8%;). 204/278 children were assessed at 5 years. BSID-III language and cognition domains showed better correlation with verbal and nonverbal IQ (R = 0.435, p < 0.001 and 0.388, p < 0.001 respectively). Both assessments showed high specificity and low sensitivity for predicting delay at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS The ASQ-3 cognitive domain showed poor concurrent validity with BSID-III cognitive score. Both ASQ-3 and BSID-III at 2 years poorly predict cognitive delay at 5 years. IMPACT The ASQ-3 does not adequately detect cognitive delay or predict cognitive delay at 5 years, particularly for children with mild to moderate delay. The ASQ-3 shows reasonable concurrent validity with the motor and language subscales of the BSID-III. Neither early screening nor formal developmental testing demonstrated significant predictive validity to screen for cognitive delay at school age. This article highlights the need to analyse our existing model of using the ASQ-3 to screen for cognitive delay in children aged 2 years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cian Duggan
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Cork University Hospital, Cork, Ireland.
| | - Alan D Irvine
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland
- Department of Paediatric Dermatology, Our Lady's Children's Hospital, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Jonathan O'B Hourihane
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Cork University Hospital, Cork, Ireland
- The INFANT Research Centre, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
| | - Mairead E Kiely
- The INFANT Research Centre, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
- University College Cork, Cork Centre for Vitamin D and Nutrition Research, School of Food and Nutritional Sciences, Cork, Ireland
| | - Deirdre M Murray
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Cork University Hospital, Cork, Ireland
- The INFANT Research Centre, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
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Long D, Anderson VA, Crossley L, Sood NT, Charles KR, MacDonald AD, Bora S, Pestell CF, Murrell K, Pride NA, Anderson PJ, Badawi N, Rose B, Baillie H, Masterson K, Chumbes Flores J, Sherring C, Raman S, Beca J, Erickson S, Festa M, Anderson BW, Venugopal P, Yim D, Andrews D, Cheung M, Brizard C, Gentles TL, Iyengar A, Nicholson I, Ayer J, Butt W, Schlapbach LJ, Gibbons KS. Longitudinal cohort study investigating neurodevelopmental and socioemotional outcomes in school-entry aged children after open heart surgery in Australia and New Zealand: the NITRIC follow-up study protocol. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e075429. [PMID: 37648380 PMCID: PMC10471882 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-075429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2023] [Accepted: 08/09/2023] [Indexed: 09/01/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Despite growing awareness of neurodevelopmental impairments in children with congenital heart disease (CHD), there is a lack of large, longitudinal, population-based cohorts. Little is known about the contemporary neurodevelopmental profile and the emergence of specific impairments in children with CHD entering school. The performance of standardised screening tools to predict neurodevelopmental outcomes at school age in this high-risk population remains poorly understood. The NITric oxide during cardiopulmonary bypass to improve Recovery in Infants with Congenital heart defects (NITRIC) trial randomised 1371 children <2 years of age, investigating the effect of gaseous nitric oxide applied into the cardiopulmonary bypass oxygenator during heart surgery. The NITRIC follow-up study will follow this cohort annually until 5 years of age to assess outcomes related to cognition and socioemotional behaviour at school entry, identify risk factors for adverse outcomes and evaluate the performance of screening tools. METHODS AND ANALYSIS Approximately 1150 children from the NITRIC trial across five sites in Australia and New Zealand will be eligible. Follow-up assessments will occur in two stages: (1) annual online screening of global neurodevelopment, socioemotional and executive functioning, health-related quality of life and parenting stress at ages 2-5 years; and (2) face-to-face assessment at age 5 years assessing intellectual ability, attention, memory and processing speed; fine motor skills; language and communication; and socioemotional outcomes. Cognitive and socioemotional outcomes and trajectories of neurodevelopment will be described and demographic, clinical, genetic and environmental predictors of these outcomes will be explored. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Ethical approval has been obtained from the Children's Health Queensland (HREC/20/QCHQ/70626) and New Zealand Health and Disability (21/NTA/83) Research Ethics Committees. The findings will inform the development of clinical decision tools and improve preventative and intervention strategies in children with CHD. Dissemination of the outcomes of the study is expected via publications in peer-reviewed journals, presentation at conferences, via social media, podcast presentations and medical education resources, and through CHD family partners. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER The trial was prospectively registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry as 'Gene Expression to Predict Long-Term Neurodevelopmental Outcome in Infants from the NITric oxide during cardiopulmonary bypass to improve Recovery in Infants with Congenital heart defects (NITRIC) Study - A Multicentre Prospective Trial'. TRIAL REGISTRATION ACTRN12621000904875.
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Affiliation(s)
- Debbie Long
- School of Nursing, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Queensland Children's Hospital, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Vicki A Anderson
- Clinical Sciences, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Psychology Service, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Louise Crossley
- Clinical Sciences, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Nikita Tuli Sood
- Clinical Sciences, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Karina R Charles
- School of Nursing, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Queensland Children's Hospital, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Anna D MacDonald
- Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Samudragupta Bora
- Department of Pediatrics, University Hospitals Rainbow Babies & Children's Hospital, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
- Mater Research Institute, The University of Queensland, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Carmela F Pestell
- School of Psychological Science, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Kathryn Murrell
- Consult Liaison Team, Starship Children's Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Natalie A Pride
- Kids Neuroscience Centre, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Peter J Anderson
- Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Nadia Badawi
- Grace Centre for Newborn Care, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Brian Rose
- Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Australian and New Zealand Fontan Advocacy Committee, HeartKids Australia Inc, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Heidi Baillie
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Kate Masterson
- Clinical Sciences, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jenipher Chumbes Flores
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Perth Children's Hospital, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Claire Sherring
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Starship Children's Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Sainath Raman
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Queensland Children's Hospital, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - John Beca
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Starship Children's Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Simon Erickson
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Perth Children's Hospital, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Marino Festa
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Benjamin W Anderson
- Queensland Paediatric Cardiac Service, Queensland Children's Hospital, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Medicine, The University of Queensland, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Prem Venugopal
- School of Medicine, The University of Queensland, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Cardiac Surgery, Queensland Children's Hospital, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Deane Yim
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Perth Children's Hospital, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
| | - David Andrews
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Perth Children's Hospital, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Michael Cheung
- Clinical Sciences, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Cardiology, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Christian Brizard
- Clinical Sciences, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Cardiac Surgery, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Thomas L Gentles
- Paediatrics, Child and Youth Health, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Service, Starship Children's Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Ajay Iyengar
- Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Service, Starship Children's Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand
- Department of Surgery, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Ian Nicholson
- Heart Centre for Children, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Julian Ayer
- Heart Centre for Children, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Warwick Butt
- Clinical Sciences, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Luregn J Schlapbach
- Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Intensive Care and Neonatology, University Children's Hospital Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Kristen S Gibbons
- Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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