Optimal cut-off age in the TNM Staging system of differentiated thyroid cancer: is 55 years better than 45 years?

Impact of Tumor Size on Prognosis in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer with Gross Extrathyroidal Extension to Strap Muscles: Redefining T3b

The prognostic significance of tumor size in T3b differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) remains debated and underexplored. This study aimed to examine the varying impact of T3b based on tumor size, analyzing disease-specific survival, disease-free survival, and overall survival. A retrospective review of 6282 DTC patients who underwent thyroid surgery at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital from September 2000 to December 2017 was conducted. T3b was classified into three subcategories, T3b-1 (≤2 cm), T3b-2 (2-4 cm), and T3b-3 (>4 cm), using the same size criteria for T1, T2, and T3a. T3b-1 showed no significant difference in disease specific survival compared to T1, and both disease-free and disease-specific survival curves were sequentially ranked as T1, T3b-1, T2, T3a, T3b-2, and T3b-3. The modified T category, reclassifying T3b-1 as T1, demonstrated superior staging performance compared to the classic T category (c-index: 0.8961 vs. 0.8959 and AUC: 0.8573 vs. 0.8518). Tumors measuring 2 cm or less within the T3b category may require downstaging, and a modified T category could improve the precision of prognostic staging compared to the current T category.

Comparison of staging and recurrence predictors in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer between the 7th and 8th editions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging systems

BACKGROUND

The predictive value of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8 for recurrence in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is not known. We aimed to compare AJCC 7 and 8 regarding the differences in staging and recurrence predictors in DTC.

METHODS

Demographic, clinical (duration of disease and follow-up, the extent of surgery), laboratory (TSH, fT4, thyroglobulin, and antithyroglobulin), pathological (type of thyroid cancer, localization, multifocality, diameter, extrathyroidal extension [ETE], and lymph node [LN] metastasis), and imaging findings (sonography, and whole-body scan), and follow-up features (metastases, recurrence and/or persistence, and RAI need) were retrospectively analyzed in adult patients with DTC followed-up for at least six months. Staging was determined in accordance with AJCC 7 and AJCC 8, prediction of recurrence and persistence by ATA risk stratification, and death risk by AMES systems. The alterations in staging and recurrence predictors were analyzed.

RESULTS

A majority of study patients (N.=524) were female (N.=424) and diagnosed with papillary cancer (N.=511), the median age at diagnosis was 44. 97.89% (N.=93) of stage 2-4 patients (N.=95) in AJCC 7 were down-staged in AJCC 8. We down-staged 41 patients of 45-55 years of age into stage 1 in AJCC 8 independent of LN status. A percentage of 26.71% of patients (N.=140) did have persistence, 9.54% (N.=50) persistence at the last follow-up, and 9.54% (N.=50) had recurrence. According to AJCC 8, T4 and AMES high risk were predictors for recurrence (hazard ratio: 3.053, P=0.023; hazard ratio:2.465, and P=0.005; respectively). Both AJCC 7 and 8 were associated with recurrence (P=0.008 and P<0.001, respectively). Stage 4 in AJCC 7, and stages 3 and 4 in AJCC 8 better predicted the probability of recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that AJCC 8 better predicted the recurrence in DTC than AJCC 7. In AJCC 8, T4 tumor, AMES high risk, stages 3 and 4 predicted recurrence. The vast majority of patients with stages 2-4 in AJCC 7 were down-staged in AJCC 8.

Patient's age with papillary thyroid cancer: Is it a key factor for cervical lymph node metastasis?

BACKGROUND

Age is one of the important prognostic indicators of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). However, the distinct metastatic patterns and prognosis of age-related lymph node metastasis (LNM) are unclear. This study aims to investigate the impact of age on LNM.

METHODS

We conducted two independent cohort studies to assess age-nodal disease association using logistic regression analysis and a restricted cubic splines model. A multivariable Cox regression model was utilized to test the impact of nodal disease on cancer-specific survival (CSS) after age stratification.

RESULTS

For this study, we included 7572 and 36,793 patients with PTC in Xiangya and SEER cohorts, respectively. After adjustment, advanced age was linearly associated with decreasing risk of central LNM. Patients of age ≤18 years (OR = 4.41, P < 0.001) and 19-45 years (OR = 1.97, P = 0.002) had a higher risk of developing lateral LNM than patients of age >60 years in both cohorts. Furthermore, CSS is significantly reduced in N1b disease (P < 0.001), not N1a disease, regardless of age. The incidence of high-volume LNM (HV-LNM) was significantly higher in patients of age ≤18 years and 19-45 years than in those of age >60 years (P < 0.001), in both cohorts. In addition, CSS was compromised in patients with PTC of age 46-60 years (HR = 1.61, P = 0.022) and those of age >60 (HR = 1.40, P = 0.021) after developing HV-LNM.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient age is significantly associated with LNM and HV-LNM. Patients with N1b disease or patients with HV-LNM of age >45 years have significantly shorter CSS. Age can, thus, be a useful guide for determining treatment strategies in PTC.

Post-Surgical Indications to Radioiodine Treatment and Potential Risk Factors for Post-Treatment Recurrence in Patients with Intermediate-Risk Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma

In this multicentric retrospective observational study, we investigated the potential risk factors for radioiodine (RAI) indication and the post-treatment recurrence of intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) 1 and 3 years from diagnosis. We included 121 patients who underwent thyroidectomy for intermediate-risk DTC. The 92 patients (76.0%) who underwent RAI treatment had a higher prevalence of extra-thyroid micro-extension (mETE) (p = 0.03), pT3 staging (p = 0.03) and recourse to therapeutic central (p = 0.04) and lateral (p = 0.01) neck dissection, as well as higher numbers (p = 0.02) and greater dimensions (p = 0.01) of lymph node metastases, compared with untreated patients. Relapse was observed in 18.1% and 20.7% of cases 1 and 3 years from diagnosis, respectively, with no significant differences between groups. A lower age at diagnosis (p = 0.03) and higher levels of stimulated thyroglobulin (Tg) (p = 0.04) emerged as the only independent risk factors for tumour relapse at 1 year. Tumour relapse at 3 years was only independently predicted by the presence of tumour relapse at 1 year (p = 0.04). In conclusion, mETE, pT3 and the presence of large, multiple or clinically evident lymph node metastases represent the main indicators for referring patients to RAI treatment. Early recurrence may be considered the most relevant factor when planning further surveillance.

Clinical and ultrasonic risk factors for high-volume central lymph node metastasis in cN0 papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: A retrospective study and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) comprises more than 50% of all newly detected cases of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). High-volume lymph node metastasis (involving >5 lymph nodes) (hv-LNM) is associated with PTMC recurrence. In half of the clinically node-negative (cN0) PTMC patients, central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is pathologically present. However, clinical risk factors for high-volume CLNM (hv-CLNM) in cN0 PTMC have not been defined well. Therefore, we aimed to obtain evidence for hv-CLNM risk factors in cN0 PTMC.

DESIGN

Data on patients who visited our hospital between January 2020 and December 2021 were collected; a preoperative diagnosis of cN0 and a postoperative pathological confirmation of PTMC were obtained. After filtering by inclusion versus exclusion criteria, the obtained data (N = 2268) were included in the meta-analysis. Relevant studies published as of 10 April 2022, were identified from the Web of Science, PubMed, WANFANG, and CNKI databases. These eligible studies were included in the meta-analysis and the association between clinicopathological factors and hv-CLNM in cN0 PTMC was assessed. SPSS and MetaXL were used for statistical analyses.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis included 10 previous studies (11,734 patients) and 2268 patients enroled in our hospital for a total of 14,002 subjects. The results of which suggested that younger age (<40, odds ratio [OR] = 3.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.75-3.92, p < .001 or <45 odds ratio [OR] = 2.93, 95% CI = 2.31-3.72, p < .001), male sex (OR = 2.81, 95% CI = 2.25-3.52, p < .001), tumour size >5 mm (OR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.39-2.47, p < .001), multifocality (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.56-2.26, p < .001), extrathyroidal extension (OR = 2.58, 95% CI = 2.02-3.30, p < .001), capsule invasion (OR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.46-2.78, p < .001), microcalcification (OR = 3.25, 95% CI = 2.42-4.36, p < .001) and rich blood flow (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.21-2.25, p = .002) were the significant factors related to an elevated hv-CLNM risk in cN0 PTMC patients. Hashimoto thyroiditis (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.55-1.07, p = .114), irregular margin (versus regular margin, OR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.68-1.33, p = .787) and hypoechoic (versus nonhypoechoic, OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 0.84-1.92, p = .261) showed no significant association with hv-CLNM.

CONCLUSIONS

Younger age, tumour size >5 mm, males, extrathyroidal extension, multifocality, microcalcification, capsular invasion, and rich blood flow were the significant clinicopathological risk factors for hv-CLNM risk in cN0 PTMC patients. These predictors may compensate for the sensitivity of imaging diagnosis in the preoperative period, thus helping in the effective identification of PTMCs with an invasive phenotype.

Current status and temporal trend of disease burden of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

Thyroid cancer has been an increasingly high-profile public health issue. Comprehensive assessment for its disease burden seems particularly important for understanding health priorities and hinting high-risk populations.

METHODS

We estimated the age-sex-specific thyroid cancer burden and its temporal trend in China from 1990 to 2019 by following the general methods from the global burden of disease (GBDs) 2019 Study. And Joinpoint regression model, the Cox-Stuart trend test, and Cochran-Armitage test were applied for the analysis of temporal and age trend. The Mantel-Haenszel statistical method was used to compare the gender difference.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of thyroid cancer in China has almost doubled to 2.05 per 100,000. Although the mortality rate and DALY rate kept leveling off, they presented a downtrend among females, while an upward trend in males. While the average annual percentage changes of those metrics all became deline since 2010 than the previous years. With age advancing, the rates of incidence, mortality, and DALYs for both sexes all presented linear fashion increases, which was particularly typical among males.

CONCLUSION

Given the serious trend and gender-age heterogeneity of Chinese thyroid cancer burden, male gender and advanced age may be related to poor prognosis of thyroid cancer, and strengthening primary prevention and exploring the underlying risk factors should be among the top priorities.

Log odds of negative lymph nodes/T stage ratio (LONT): A new prognostic tool for differentiated thyroid cancer without metastases in patients aged 55 and older

BACKGROUND

The optimal approach to assess the postoperative status of lymph nodes in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) remains controversial. Our aim was to determine if the log odds of negative lymph nodes/T stage ratio (LONT) could serve as a new prognostic and predictive tool for DTC without metastases in patients aged ≥ 55 years.

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to study the role of LONT in patients aged ≥55 years diagnosed with DTC without metastases. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazard regression model were used to calculate the outcome. Moreover, the robustness of research findings was evaluated using sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 21,172 DTC patients aged ≥55 years without distant metastasis were enrolled. Multivariate Cox regression analyses and a "floating absolute risk" analysis showed that a LONT ≥0.920 (vs. -0.56 to 0.92) was a protective factor for OS in DTC patients. Sensitivity analyses revealed an E-value of 1.98 for the obtained LONT value. In subgroup analyses, LONT was correlated significantly with OS in different subgroups of negative lymph nodes, stage-I-II subgroups and the N0 subgroup. The conditional probability of survival of DTC improved with prolonged survival time in the LONT ≥0.920 group.

CONCLUSION

A high LONT was associated with longer OS compared with low LONT in patients aged ≥55 years with non-metastatic DTC. LONT could provide valuable information for undertaking postoperative evaluations.

A user-friendly nomogram for predicting radioiodine refractory differentiated thyroid cancer

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis of radioiodine refractory differentiated thyroid cancer (RAIR-DTC) is primarily based on clinical evolution and iodine uptake over the lesions, which is still time-consuming, thus urging a predictive model for timely RAIR-DTC informing. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram model for RAIR prediction among DTC patients with distant metastases (DM).

METHODS

Data were extracted from the treatment and follow-up databases of Peking Union Medical College Hospital between 2010 and 2021. A total of 124 patients were included and divided into RAIR (n=71) and non-RAIR (n=53) according to 2015 ATA guidelines. All patients underwent total thyroidectomy followed by at least two courses of RAI treatment. Serological markers and various clinical, pathological, genetic status, and imaging factors were integrated into this study. The pre-treatment stimulated Tg and pre- and post-treatment suppressed Tg at the first and second course RAI treatment were defined as s-Tg1, s-Tg2, sup-Tg1, and sup-Tg2, respectively. Δs-Tg denoted s-Tg1/s-Tg2, and Δs-TSH denoted s-TSH1/s-TSH2. Multivariate logistic regression and correlation analysis were utilized to determine the independent predictors of RAIR. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by internal validation and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and benefit in clinical decision-making was assessed using decision curve.

RESULTS

In univariate logistic regression, nine possible risk factors were related to RAIR. Correlation analysis showed four of the above factors associated with RAIR. Through multivariate logistic regression, Δs-Tg/Δs-TSH<1.50 and age upon diagnosis were obtained to develop a convenient nomogram model for predicting RAIR. The model was internally validated and had good predictive efficacy with an AUC of 0.830, specificity of 0.830, and sensitivity of 0.755. The decision curve also showed that if the model is used for clinical decision-making when the probability threshold is between 0.23 and 0.97, the net benefit of patients is markedly higher than that of the TreatAll and TreatNone control groups.By using 1.50 as a cut-off ofΔs-Tg/Δs-TSH, differing biochemical progression among the generally so-called RAIR can be further stratified as meaningfully rapidly or slowly progressive patients (P=0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

A convenient user-friendly nomogram model was developed with good predictive efficacy for RAIR. The progression of RAIR can be further stratified as rapidly or slowly progressive by using 1.50 as a cut-off value of Δs-Tg/Δs-TSH.

A critical analysis of the current TNM classification for differentiated thyroid carcinoma in young patients: Time for a change?

Background

The current TNM classification that simply classifies differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients younger than 55 years into stage I and stage II based on the presence or absence of distant metastases has been questioned. In this study, we reexamined the impact of T status and N status on prognosis and then developed a new prediction model to improve the predictability of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in young patients.

Materials and methods

Kaplan-Meier method was applied to calculate the CSS. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the impact of T status and N status on CSS after adjustment for known covariates. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index, Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were calculated to compare model performance.

Results

A total of 9,242 DTC patients younger than 55 years were enrolled in the study. After adjusting for gender, age at diagnosis, race, pathology subtype, N stage, and M stage, T3 disease [hazard ratio (HR): 3.78, P = 0.006] and T4 disease (HR: 7.96, P < 0.001) remain independent predictors of CSS. Similarly, the 10-year CSS rate of N1b disease (HR: 3.78, P < 0.001) was significantly higher than that of N0 disease after adjustment. Moreover, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the 10-year CSS of stage II disease in younger patients with DTC showed a sharp decrease compared with that in older patients with DTC (74.47% vs. 98.43%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, a modified TNM staging system based on significantly prognostic T stage and N stage was established, which showed better performance than the current TNM staging system (P < 0.05). The new prediction model is also applicable to papillary thyroid carcinoma patients and follicular thyroid carcinoma patients.

Conclusions

This is the first study to question the rationality of the current TNM staging system for patients younger than 55 years and successfully develop a new prognostic model, which improves prognostic stratification and guides individualized management.

PSG7 indicates that age at diagnosis is associated with papillary thyroid carcinoma: A study based on the cancer genome atlas data

The age of the patients at diagnosis (age at diagnosis) is a self-contained element of danger for the prognosis of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), which has been well recognized and continuously adopted by the international cancer staging system. However, few studies have investigated its intrinsic mechanisms. In this study, we aim to comprehensively reveal the age-related pathogenesis of PTC and identify potential prognostic biomarkers. We divided the samples into two groups, young and elderly, to filter differentially expressed genes in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), with an age of 55 years serving as a cutoff. Moreover, we combined univariate, LASSO, and multivariate Cox regression analyses to construct age-related signatures for predicting progression-free survival. Additionally, functional enrichment analysis, immune infiltration analysis, differential expression analysis, clinicopathological correlation analysis, and drug sensitivity analysis were performed in different risk subgroups and expression subgroups. We screened 88 upregulated genes and 58 downregulated genes. Both the LASSO regression model that is validated in TCGA and the model of six age-related prognostic genes (IGF2BP1, GPRC6A, IL37, CRCT1, SEMG1, and PSG7) can be used to evaluate the progression-free survival of PTC patients. The GO, KEGG, and GSEA analyses revealed that each key gene was closely associated with PTC development. Furthermore, CD8⁺ T cells decreased significantly, while regulatory T cells increased dramatically in the high-risk and PSG7 high expression groups. PSG7 was remarkably correlated with clinicopathological parameters (pathologic stage, T stage, and N stage) of PTC patients, and PSG7 expression was elevated in tumor samples from both TCGA and the Gene Expression Omnibus and was strongly associated with progressive stage and poor prognosis. Our results provide an innovative understanding of the age-related molecular mechanisms of PTC development. PSG7 was identified to exert a critical role in PTC progression and may serve as a promising strategy for predicting the prognosis of PTC.

Assessment of age as different variable types for determining survival in differentiated thyroid cancer

PURPOSE

The current tumor, node, metastasis (TNM) system uses an age of 55 years as a threshold for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). The aim of our study was to explore the concept of using age as a continuous variable.

METHODS

A total of 36,559 patients with DTC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and 7491 patients in our centers were enrolled. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were compared. Furthermore, the different statistical model performance of the 6th edition TNM system and age cutoffs for papillary (PTC) and follicular thyroid cancer (FTC) were assessed. Then, a nomogram was built and validated to evaluate the efficacy of age as a continuous variable for predicting survival.

RESULTS

The OS and CSS of patients with DTC were significantly increased in patients <55 years compared with those aged ≥55 years. However, no significant differences in prognosis were observed in certain groups as patients between 50 and 60 years were stratified by 1-year increments. Furthermore, the highest concordance index (C-index) was observed in the TNM staging without an age cutoff in SEER database (0.895), our two centers (0.877) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed different age cutoffs for PTC and FTC. More importantly, the nomogram incorporating age as a continuous variable showed a favorable area under the ROC curve and calibration for training and validation groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The utilization of age as a continuous variable is a rational approach for predicting outcome in DTC patients.

Surgical Methods and Social Factors Are Associated With Long-Term Survival in Follicular Thyroid Carcinoma: Construction and Validation of a Prognostic Model Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Background

This study aimed to establish and verify an effective machine learning (ML) model to predict the prognosis of follicular thyroid cancer (FTC), and compare it with the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) model.

Methods

Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model were used to analyze the risk factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS). Propensity-score matching (PSM) was used to adjust the confounding factors of different surgeries. Nine different ML algorithms,including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Random Forests (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GaussianNB), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP),were used to build prognostic models of FTC.10-fold cross-validation and SHapley Additive exPlanations were used to train and visualize the optimal ML model.The AJCC model was built by multivariate Cox regression and visualized through nomogram. The performance of the XGBoost model and AJCC model was mainly assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC).

Results

Multivariate Cox regression showed that age, surgical methods, marital status, T classification, N classification and M classification were independent risk factors of CSS. Among different surgeries, the prognosis of one-sided thyroid lobectomy plus isthmectomy (LO plus IO) was the best, followed by total thyroidectomy (hazard ratios: One-sided thyroid LO plus IO, 0.086[95% confidence interval (CI),0.025-0.290], P&lt;0.001; total thyroidectomy (TT), 0.490[95%CI,0.295-0.814], P=0.006). PSM analysis proved that one-sided thyroid LO plus IO, TT, and partial thyroidectomy had no significant differences in long-term prognosis. Our study also revealed that married patients had better prognosis than single, widowed and separated patients (hazard ratios: single, 1.686[95%CI,1.146-2.479], P=0.008; widowed, 1.671[95%CI,1.163-2.402], P=0.006; separated, 4.306[95%CI,2.039-9.093], P&lt;0.001). Among different ML algorithms, the XGBoost model had the best performance, followed by Gaussian NB, RF, LR, MLP, LightGBM, AdaBoost, KNN and SVM. In predicting FTC prognosis, the predictive performance of the XGBoost model was relatively better than the AJCC model (AUROC: 0.886 vs. 0.814).

Conclusion

For high-risk groups, effective surgical methods and well marital status can improve the prognosis of FTC. Compared with the traditional AJCC model, the XGBoost model has relatively better prediction accuracy and clinical usage.

Comparison of the prognostic value of AJCC cancer staging system 7th and 8th editions for differentiated thyroid cancer

BACKGROUND

In the last American Joint Committee on Cancer/Tumor, Node, Metastasis (AJCC/TNM) 8th edition (TNM8), several changes were introduced to this risk stratification system to improve the prognosis of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC).

AIM

To validate the impact of TNM8 vs. TNM 7th edition (TNM7) in DTC in terms of predictive value in two hospitals from Buenos Aires, Argentina.

METHODS

Retrospective study of DTC patients from two institutions. Reclassification from TNM7 to TNM8, disease-specific survival (DSS), and final clinical outcomes at the end of follow-up (recurrent/persistent structural disease) (median 5 years) were analyzed. The proportion of variation explained (PVE) was used to compare the predictive capability of DSS of both classification systems.

RESULTS

Reclassification of 245 patients, aged (mean ± SD) 55 ± 15.36 years, 91% women, to TNM8 from TNM7 showed: 82% vs 57% stage I (SI), 10% vs 8.5% SII, 5% vs 22% SIII, 3% vs 12% SIV (p < 0.01). Forty percent of the population was downstaged with TNM8. Ten-year DSS rates for SI, SII, SIII and SIV in TNM7 were 100, 100, 100 and 74%, respectively and in TNM8: 97.6, 100, 100 and 37.5%, respectively. Out of 4 disease-specific deaths in SIV TNM7, one was subclassified to SI TNM8, corresponding to a 53-year-old patient with structural persistence. PVE for TNM8 (29%) was more than twice that of TNM7 (13%).

CONCLUSION

In this Argentinian DTC patients sample, it was confirmed that the new TNM8 classification is more accurate in predicting survival attributable to cancer than its previous version.

Differentiated thyroid carcinoma in the elderly: influence of age on disease-free and overall survival

PURPOSE

We investigated whether age at diagnosis of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) may be a risk factor for structural disease and mortality after primary treatment in aging patients.

METHODS

A multicenter, retrospective analysis including patients older than 60 years at DCT diagnosis was designed. All subjects were treated by surgery with or without radioiodine adjuvant therapy and had a minimum follow-up of one year. We compared elderly patients (group 1, 60-74 years) with very old patients (group 2, ≥75 years).

RESULTS

The study involved 1668 patients (74.3% women, median age 67 years, 87.6% papillary thyroid cancer, 73.3% treated with radioiodine), including 1397 in group 1 and 271 in group 2. Patients in group 2 had larger tumor size (1.8 [0.8-3.0] vs 1.5 [0.7-2.8] cm; P = 0.005), higher proportions of tumors with vascular invasion (23.8 vs 16.4%; P = 0.006), and lower proportion of lymphocytic thyroiditis (18.6 vs 24.9%; P = 0.013) than subjects in group 1. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that patients in group 2 had significantly lower structural disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) than patients in group 1 (P = 0.035 and <0.001, respectively). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, age was a risk factor significantly associated with OS. However, age was significantly associated with DFS in unadjusted analysis and in analysis adjusted by gender and risk classification variables, but not when pathological and therapy-related variables were introduced in the model. On the other hand, patients who received radioiodine had worse DFS (P < 0.001) compared to those who did not.

CONCLUSION

Although age is a conditioning factor for OS, very old patients do not have a greater risk of developing structural disease throughout the follow-up than elderly patients with DTC.

Is Gross Extrathyroidal Extension to Strap Muscles (T3b) Only a Risk Factor for Recurrence in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma? A Propensity Score Matching Study

Simple Summary

In papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), staging classification of gross and minimal extrathyroidal extension (ETE) has been recently modified in the eighth edition of the American Joint Commission on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) TNM staging system. In this study, we compared the clinicopathological characteristics and recurrence rates between minimal and gross ETE. No significant differences in the recurrence and disease-free survival rates were found between the two groups. Whether gross ETE invading strap muscles (T3b) only could be a risk factor for recurrence in PTC remains questionable.

Abstract

The presence of extrathyroidal extension (ETE) is associated with locoregional recurrence and distant metastases in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). This study was designed to compare the recurrence risk between minimal ETE (mETE) and gross ETE (gETE) in patients with PTC using propensity score matching. In this study, 4452 patients with PTC who underwent thyroid surgery in a single center were retrospectively analyzed, and clinicopathological characteristics were compared according to the ETE status. Disease-free survival (DFS) and recurrence risk were compared between mETE and gETE after propensity score matching. The mean follow-up duration was 122.7 ± 22.5 months. In multivariate analysis, both mETE and gETE were not associated with recurrence risk before propensity score matching (p = 0.154 and p = 0.072, respectively). After propensity score matching, no significant difference in recurrence rates was observed between the two groups (p = 0.668). DFS of the gETE group did not significantly differ from that of the mETE group (log-rank p = 0.531). This study revealed that both mETE and gETE are not independent risk factors for the risk of recurrence in PTC. Our findings suggest that gETE invading strap muscles only might not be associated with worse oncological outcomes in PTC.

Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the survival probability of differentiated thyroid carcinoma patients: a comparison with the eighth edition AJCC cancer staging system

PURPOSE

This study aimed to develop a clinically predictive nomogram model to predict the survival probability of differentiated thyroid carcinoma patients and compare the value of this model with that of the eighth edition AJCC cancer staging system.

METHODS

We selected 59,876 differentiated thyroid carcinoma patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 from the SEER database and separated those patients into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%) randomly. We used Cox regression analysis to build the nomogram model (model 1) and the eighth edition AJCC cancer staging model (model 2). Then we compared the predictive accuracy, discrimination, and clinical usage of both models by calculating AUC (Area under the curve), C-index, as well as analyzing DCA (Decision Curve Analysis) performance respectively.

RESULTS

AUCs of all predicted time points (12-month, 36-month, 60-month, and 120-month) of model 1 were 0.933, 0.913, 0.879, and 0.868 for the training set; 0.933, 0.926, 0.916, and 0.894 for the validation set. As for model 2, data were 0.938, 0.906, 0.866, and 0.847 for the training set; 0.924, 0.925, 0.912, and 0.867 for the validation set. C-indices of model 1 were higher than those of model 2 (0.923 vs. 0.918 for the training set, 0.938 vs. 0.930 for the validation set). DCA comparison showed that the net benefit of model 1 was bigger when comparing with that of model 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Model 1 provided with both better predictive accuracy and clinical usage compared with those of model 2 and might be able to predict the survival probability of differentiated thyroid carcinoma patients visually and accurately with a higher net benefit.

Can Age at Diagnosis and Sex Improve the Performance of the American Thyroid Association Risk Stratification System for Prediction of Structural Persistent and Recurrent Disease in Patients With Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma? A Multicenter Study

OBJECTIVE

Although the age at diagnosis has been suggested as a major determinant of disease-specific survival in the recent TNM staging system, it is not included in the recent American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines to estimate the risk of recurrence. Nevertheless, the effect of sex on differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) recurrence is controversial. Therefore, this multicenter study was conducted to assess whether age at diagnosis and sex can improve the performance of the ATA 3-tiered risk stratification system in patients with DTC with at least 5 years of follow-up.

METHODS

In this study, the computer-recorded data of the patients diagnosed with DTC between January 1985 and January 2016 were analyzed. Only patients with proven structural persistent/recurrent disease were selected for comparisons.

RESULTS

This study consisted of 1691 patients (female, 1367) with DTC. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, disease-free survival (DFS) was markedly longer in females only in the ATA low-risk category (P = .045). Nevertheless, a markedly longer DFS was observed in patients aged <45 years in the ATA low- and intermediate-risk categories (P = .004 and P = .009, respectively), whereas in patients aged <55 years, DFS was markedly longer only in the ATA low-risk category (P < .001). In the Cox proportional hazards model, ages of ≥45 and ≥55 years at diagnosis and the ATA risk stratification system were all independent predictors of persistent/recurrent disease.

CONCLUSION

Applying the age cutoff of 45 years in the ATA intermediate- and low-risk categories may identify patients at a higher risk of persistence/recurrence and may improve the performance of the ATA risk stratification system, whereas sex may improve the performance of only the ATA low-risk category.

Finding the Optimal Age Cutoff for the UICC/AJCC TNM Staging System in Patients with Papillary or Follicular Thyroid Cancer

Background: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the only cancer entity for which the UICC/AJCC (Union for International Cancer Control and American Joint Committee on Cancer) TNM (tumor-node-metastasis) staging system involves an age cutoff as a prognostic criterion. However, the optimal age cutoff has not yet been determined in detail. The aim of our study was therefore to investigate the optimal age cutoff for the TNM staging system to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) with a focus on differences between patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and follicular thyroid cancer (FTC). Methods: We retrospectively studied two large well-described cohorts of adult DTC patients from a Dutch and a German university hospital. DSS was analyzed for DTC overall, and for PTC and FTC separately, using several age cutoffs (per 5-year increment between 20 and 85 years and subsequently 1-year increments between 35 and 55 years), employing the histopathological criteria from the TNM staging system, eighth edition. Results: We included 3074 DTC patients (77% PTC and 23% FTC; mean age at diagnosis was 49 years). Median follow-up was seven years. For DTC and for PTC and FTC separately, the majority of the age cutoffs had a better statistical model performance than a model with no age cutoff. For DTC overall and for PTC, an age cutoff of 50 years had the best statistical model performance, while it was 40 years for FTC. Conclusions: In this large European population of DTC patients, when employing the histopathological criteria of the TNM system (eighth edition), the optimal age cutoff to predict DSS is 50 years rather than the 55 years currently in use. With the optimal age cutoff being 50 years for PTC and 40 years for FTC, there was a substantial difference in age cutoff for the respective histological entities. Therefore, implementation of different age cutoffs for PTC and FTC could improve the predictive value of the TNM staging system.

A Comparison of the Seventh and Eighth Editions of the AJCC Staging Systems to Predict Recurrence in Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The incidence of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma has been constantly rising in recent decades. The tumor, node, metastasis staging system is designed to predict prognosis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma. Recent studies have shown that the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition is superior to the 7th edition for predicting tumor recurrence in PTC patients. To date, whether the 8th edition is also better able to predict recurrence in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) remains unclear.

METHOD

We enrolled 1007 cases from our thyroid cancer database in the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, from 1997 to 2011. Univariable and multivariate Cox hazard regression analyses were used to identify the association between variables and recurrence. Disease-free survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

A total of 1007 PTMC patients were enrolled, with a median follow-up of 67 months. Of 93 (9.2%) patients downstaged by the changes in versions, 49 (52.7%) were downstaged because the age-at-diagnosis cut-off used for staging increased from 45 to 55 years, while 35 (37.6%) were downstaged due to the weakening of the effects of lymph node metastasis. The recurrence rate of PTMC was 4.17%. Univariate Cox hazards regression analyses showed that TNM stage according to the AJCC 8th edition was significantly associated with recurrence, while the recurrence survival curves showed that TNM stage (stage I vs. stage II-IV) according to the AJCC 8th edition, but not the 7th edition, was significantly associated with disease-free survival (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The AJCC 8th edition has better ability to predict recurrence in PTMC patients than the 7th edition.

How Does The AJCC/TNM Staging System Eighth Edition Perform in Thyroid Cancer at A Major Middle Eastern Medical Center?

OBJECTIVE

The American Joint Committee on Cancer tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system eighth edition (TNM-8) for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) has been introduced as a replacement for tumor node metastasis staging system seventh edition (TNM-7). We present the first study from a Middle Eastern population comparing these 2 versions of the TNM staging system.

METHODS

We compared TNM-8 with TNM-7 in 701 patients with DTC seen during a 3-year period with a median age of 37 years (6-83) and a female-to-male ratio of 558 (79.6%) to 143 (20.4%).

RESULTS

The number (%) of patients within each stage in TNM-7 and TNM-8, respectively, are as follows: stage I = 503 (71.6%) and 583 (83.2%), stage II = 52 (7.4%) and 81 (11.4%), stage III = 53 (7.6%) and 6 (0.9%), and stage IV = 93 (13.2%) and 31 (4.6%). Overall, 172 patients (24.5%) were downstaged in TNM-8 compared to that in TNM-7, as follows: 26, 30, and 24 patients from stages II, III, and IV in TNM-7 to stage I in TNM-8; 23 and 32 patients from TNM-7 stages III and IV to TNM-8 stage II; 6 patients from stage IVa in TNM-7 to stage III in TNM-8; and 31 patients from stage IVc in TNM-7 to stage IVb in TNM-8. TNM-7 and TNM-8 predicted the long-term outcome well (median follow-up, 7.9 years), but Kaplan-Meier analysis showed better separation of cancer-specific survival in TNM-8 compared to TNM-7.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with TNM-7, TNM-8 approximately downstaged a quarter of DTC patients and was more robust in separating the outcome of different stages over time.

The combination of ATA classification and FNA results can improve the diagnostic efficiency of malignant thyroid nodules

PURPOSE

To determine the diagnostic efficiency of the ATA classification and ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (FNA) results in identifying the risk factors of malignancy, we analyzed the thyroid nodules of patients who underwent thyroidectomy and compared preoperative ATA classifications with FNA results.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 274 nodules of 196 patients who underwent ultrasonography, FNA and thyroidectomy. Histopathological findings of thyroid nodules were considered as the Au standard in the analysis of the diagnostic efficiency of the ATA classification and FNA results. Univariate analysis and binary multivariate logistic regression analysis were applied to identify the ultrasound features associated with malignancy.

RESULTS

The overall malignancy rate of 274 nodules was 41.6%. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) for the ATA classification and FNA results were 0.88 and 0.878, respectively (P < 0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of the ATA classification were 86 and 86.9%, whereas those of FNA results were 68.5 and 91.4%, respectively. The specificity (98.7%) and sensitivity (94.3%) increased after the combined use of the ATA classification and FNA results. Taller-than-wide shape, microcalcifications, hypoechogenicity and irregular margins were independent risk factors for malignancy. Microcalcifications had the highest OR (7.58), and taller-than-wide shape had the highest specificity in BSRTC I, II, III and IV cytology.

CONCLUSION

The diagnostic efficiency of the ATA classification and FNA results in identifying malignant nodules was high, and the use of both criteria improved the diagnostic accuracy. Taller-than-wide shape, microcalcifications, hypoechogenicity and irregular margins were independent risk factors for malignancy.

Characterization of BRAF mutation in patients older than 45 years with well-differentiated thyroid carcinoma

Introduction

Papillary thyroid carcinoma is the most frequent endocrine neoplasia and its incidence has tripled over the past 35 years. Although papillary thyroid carcinoma carries a good prognosis, 10%−30% of patients still develop recurrence and metastasis. Some clinical and genetic features are associated with worse prognosis. The most frequent mutation is the BRAF p.V600E, which has been associated with many clinical features of poor prognosis. However, many studies have produced controversial results without any association between BRAF mutation and clinicopathological features of poor prognosis.

Objective

Since the prognostic value of BRAF mutations remains controversial, this study aims to investigate the importance of this mutation in therapeutic decisions for papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Methods

Therefore, we evaluated whether the presence of BRAF mutation is associated with features of poor prognosis in 85 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma older than 45 years treated at A.C. Camargo Cancer Center, from 1980 to 2007. BRAF mutation was evaluated by pyrosequencing. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS.

Results

The mean age of patients was 54 years (range: 45 − 77 years), 73 were women (85.8%) and 12 were men (14.2%). Among them, 39 cases (45.9%) presented extrathyroidal extension and 11 cases had recurrent disease. BRAF mutation was detected in 57 (67%) patients. No significant association was observed between BRAF mutation and gender (p  = 0.743), age (p  = 0.236), N-stage (p  = 0.423), vascular and perineural infiltration (p  = 0.085 or multifocality (p  = 1.0). Although not statistically significant, the majority of patients with recurrent disease were BRAF positive (9 out of 11) (p  = 0.325). Patients affected by BRAF mutation are associated with tumors larger than 1 cm (p  = 0.034) and with extrathyroidal extension (p  = 0.033).

Conclusion

Although BRAF testing is widely available, there are no consistent data to support improvement in outcomes from incorporating it into therapeutic decision for thyroid cancer.

The impact of radioactive iodine treatment on survival among papillary thyroid cancer patients according to the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC/TNM staging system: a SEER-based study

Papillary thyroid cancer is a very common endocrine malignancy. The 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) staging system introduced major changes. We conducted this retrospective cohort analysis to assess the benefits of radioactive iodine (RAI) according to different stratification of patients. The source of the data was the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. From 2006 to 2015, patients with papillary thyroid cancer were included in our study. The interactions between different variables and RAI treatment were tested by multivariate Cox regression models to compare the survival differences according to RAI treatment between the patients assessed with the 7th and 8th edition of the AJCC/TNM staging system. The results of the interaction analysis and group comparisons indicated that the effects of RAI treatment on patients staged with the 7th and 8th editions were similar. Patients with early Stage, early T stage, N0 and subtotal or near total thyroidectomy benefited greatly from RAI treatment. Patients with Stage III according to the 8th edition benefited less from RAI than patients with Stage III according to the 7th edition. Patients with T1a benefited from RAI but benefited less than patients with other T stages. Patients with T3a benefited more from RAI than those with T3b. According to the 8th edition, Stage III/IV more accurately differentiates patients with advanced stage disease. These patients benefitted less from RAI treatment, which may be due to the relatively weaker iodine uptake by tumor cells. T1a patients benefitted less than patients with other T stages. The difference in RAI benefit between patients with T3a and T3b is a novel finding in our study.

Comparison of long-term prognosis for differentiated thyroid cancer according to the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system

BACKGROUND

The 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system was released with major revisions. The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate differences between the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system and to compare the predictability of prognosis between the two staging systems with patients who underwent thyroidectomy for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) at a single institution.

METHODS

A total of 3238 patients underwent thyroid operation from January 2002 to December 2006 at Yonsei University Hospital (Seoul, Korea), of which 2294 with complete clinical data and sustained follow up were enrolled. Clinicopathologic features and TNM staging by applying the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC/UICC were analyzed retrospectively by the complete review of medical charts and pathology reports of patients. Mean follow-up duration was 132.9 ± 27.9 months.

RESULTS

A significant number of T3 patients were downstaged to T1 (838, 36.5%) and T2 (122, 5.3%). After applying the 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system, the number of stage I patients increased significantly from 1434 (62.5%) to 2058 (89.7%), whereas numbers of stage III and IV patients decreased significantly from 644 (28.1%) to 33 (1.4%) and from 199 (8.7%) to 17 (0.7%), respectively. According to Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and values of the Harrell's c-index and integrated area under the curve (iAUC), the 8th edition has significantly better predictive performance for disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) than the 7th edition.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant population was downstaged after applying the 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system, and the 8th edition provided significantly better accuracy in predicting DFS and DSS in patients with DTC.

Meta-analysis of risk factors for CCLNM in patients with unilateral cN0 PTC

BACKGROUND

In patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) with clinical negative central lymph nodes (cN0), the use of prophylactic central lymph node dissection remains controversial. Contralateral central lymph node metastasis (CCLNM) occurs in 3.88–30.63% of patients with cN0 PTC. Therefore, the present meta-analysis aimed to obtain evidence for CCLNM risk factors in unilateral cN0 PTC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Relevant studies were identified in the PubMed, SCIE, and Wanfang databases up to Oct 31, 2019. The included patients had undergone lobectomy or total thyroidectomy with bilateral central lymph node dissection and were diagnosed pathologically with PTC. Revman 5.3 software was applied for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies comprising 2449 patients were included. The factors associated with increased CCLNM risk in patients with cN0 disease were: age <45 years (odds ratio (OR) = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.43–2.49, P < 0.00001), male sex (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.24–2.24, P = 0.0007), extrathyroidal extension (OR = 1.63; 95% CI = 1.17–2.28; P = 0.004), tumor size ≥1 cm (OR = 2.63, 95% CI 1.85–3.74, P < 0.00001), lymphovascular invasion (OR = 4.27, 95% CI = 2.47–7.37, P < 0.00001), and ipsilateral central lymph node metastasis (OR = 11.42, 95% CI = 5.25–24.86, P < 0.00001). However, no association was found for capsular invasion, multifocality, or Hashimoto thyroiditis.

CONCLUSION

The meta-analysis identified that age <45 years, tumor ≥1 cm, male sex, lymphovascular invasion, extrathyroidal extension, and ipsilateral central lymph node metastasis are related to CCLNM in patients with unilateral CN0 PTC. These factors should influence the use of prophylactic central lymph node dissection in this group of patients.

Patient Age Is an Independent Risk Factor of Relapse of Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma and Improves the Performance of the American Thyroid Association Stratification System

Background: The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines proposed a three-category system for estimating the risk of recurrence of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). This system includes several perioperative features, but not age at diagnosis. However, age has traditionally been recognized as a critical factor in the survival of DTC patients, and the eighth edition of TNM stated that patients older than 55 years were at higher risk of death. In this study, we raised the question of whether age at DTC diagnosis impacts on its risk of recurrence. Specifically, the present study aimed to (i) evaluate the association between age at diagnosis and structural recurrence and (ii) investigate whether age at diagnosis could improve the performance of the ATA system. Methods: During the study period, four institutions selected DTC patients treated with both thyroidectomy and radioiodine and who had follow-up for at least one year. Patients with proven structural evidence of disease during follow-up were identified, and disease-free survival (DFS) was calculated accordingly. Results: The study involved 1603 DTC patients with a median age of 49 years and DFS of 44 months. Disease recurred in 8%. The shortest DFS was found in the oldest patients. The Kaplan-Meier curves were calculated for each decade of age, and there was a significant association with DFS (p = 0.0014). Patients older than 55 years had significantly higher risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI 1.23-2.56]). The Kaplan-Meier curves of DFS in high-, intermediate- and low-risk groups showed a significant association only in the high-risk group (p = 0.0058). Patients older than 55 years had significantly higher risk of relapse over time only in the high-risk group (HR 2.15 [CI 2.01-4.53]). Cox's proportional analysis showed that the age cutoff of 55 years and the ATA system were significant predictors of relapse. Adding age at diagnosis above 55 years to the ATA system identified a subgroup of patients at highest risk for relapse. Conclusions: The age threshold adopted in the eighth edition of TNM staging system for DTC patients' prognosis also identifies cases at higher risk of relapse. Applying age at diagnosis, with a cutoff of 55 years, to the ATA risk stratification system identifies cases at highest risk of relapse.

Total thyroidectomy versus thyroid lobectomy in the treatment of papillary carcinoma

Extent of thyroidectomy for papillary thyroid carcinoma is still matter of debate. Indeed, recently, international guidelines endorsed thyroid lobectomy as initial surgical approach for low risk, small medium-sized (T1-T2), N0 papillary thyroid carcinoma in absence of extrathyroidal extension. When dealing with a conservative surgery for oncologic disease is of utmost importance to exclude effectively more advanced disease, which could benefit from a more aggressive initial operation. However, in the setting of surgery for papillary thyroid carcinoma, despite an accurate preoperative work up could led to identify some suspicious characteristics as macroscopic evidence of multifocality or extrathyroidal extension, and/or evidence of lateral neck lymph node metastases, it is difficult to reliably assess the central neck nodal status both pre- and intra-operatively. Frozen section examination of the central neck nodes ipsilateral to the side of the tumor has been proposed in patients scheduled for thyroid lobectomy, in order to modulate the extension of both thyroidectomy and central neck dissection. Future molecular and genetic evidences are needed to establish high-risk patients with small papillary thyroid carcinoma in which thyroid lobectomy could be not and adequate surgical treatment.

Time-Varying Pattern of Mortality and Recurrence from Papillary Thyroid Cancer: Lessons from a Long-Term Follow-Up

Background: Little is known about annual hazard rates of cancer mortality and recurrence for papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). This study investigated the time-varying pattern of cancer death and recurrence from PTC and independent prognostic factors for cause-specific mortality (CSM) and recurrence of PTC. Methods: This retrospective chart review enrolled 466 patients diagnosed with PTC who underwent curative initial surgery between April 1981 and December 1991 with a median follow-up of 18.4 years. Clinical characteristics, cancer mortality (primary endpoint), and recurrence (secondary endpoint) were ascertained. The failure rates of either death or recurrence were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier methods, and annual death/recurrence hazard was depicted using hazard function. Results: In this Japanese cohort where only 1.5% of patients received radioactive iodine therapy, the 10-, 20-, and 30-year CSM rates were 2.7%, 6.2%, and 8.6%, respectively. Eleven (44.0%) cases of death occurred within the first 10 years, whereas 10 (40.0%) and 4 (16.0%) cases occurred within 10-20 and 20-30 years after surgery, respectively. The 10-, 20-, and 30-year recurrence rates were 11.3%, 21.8%, and 29.4%, respectively. Forty-six (54.8%) cases of recurrence occurred within the first 10 years, predominantly within the first five years (31 cases; 36.9%), whereas 29 (34.5%), 7 (8.3%), and 2 (2.4%) cases occurred within 10-20, 20-30, and ≥30 years after surgery, respectively. Age ≥55 years was the only independent prognostic factor for CSM. Age ≥55 years, male, tumor size > 4 cm, extranodal extension, and positive pathological lymph node metastasis were independent prognostic factors for recurrence. The annual hazard curve of cancer mortality presented a double-peaked distribution, with a first peak at the 10th year, and the second peak reaching the maximum at the 20th year after surgery for the entire population. The annual hazard curve of recurrence showed a triple-peaked pattern, with surges at about 12, 22, and 29 years after surgery. Conclusions: Patients with PTC harboring at least one of the prognostic characteristics may be at persistent risk of cancer mortality and recurrence even 10 or more years after initial treatment. Understanding the hazard rate of PTC is key to creating more tailored treatment and surveillance.

Impact of the updated TNM staging criteria on prediction of persistent disease in a differentiated thyroid carcinoma cohort

OBJECTIVE

The 8th TNM system edition (TNM-8) released in 2018 presents significant changes when compared to the 7th edition (TNM-7). The aim of this study was to assess the impact of changing the TNM staging criteria on the outcomes in a Brazilian cohort of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC).

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

DTC patients, attending a tertiary, University-based hospital, were classified by TNM-7 and TNM-8. Prediction of disease outcomes status of the two systems was compared in a retrospective cohort study design.

RESULTS

Four hundred and nineteen DTC patients were evaluated, comprised by 82% (345/419) women, with mean age at diagnosis of 46.4 ± 15.6 years, 89% (372/419) papillary thyroid carcinoma, with a median tumor size of 2.3 cm (P25-P75, 1.3-3.5). One hundred and sixty patients (38%) had lymph node metastases and 47 (11%) distant metastases at diagnosis. Using the TNM-7 criteria, 236 (56%) patients were classified as Stage I, 50 (12%) as Stage II, 75 (18%) as Stage III and 58 (14%) as Stage IV. When evaluated by the TNM-8, 339 (81%) patients were classified as Stage I, 64 (15%) as Stage II, 2 (0.5%) as Stage III and 14(3%) as Stage IV. After a median follow-up of 4.4years (P25-P75 2.6-6.6), the rate of incomplete biochemical and/or structural response was 54% vs. 92% (P = 0.004) and incomplete structural response was 42% vs. 86% (P = 0.009) for patients classified as stage IV by TNM-7 vs TNM-8, respectively. Only 4 (1%) disease-related deaths were recorded.

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort, 37% of DTC patients were down staged with the application of TNM-8 (vs. TNM-7). Additionally, TNM-8 seems to better stratify the risk of structural incomplete response at follow-up.

Lung Metastases From Papillary Thyroid Cancer With Persistently Negative Thyroglobulin and Elevated Thyroglobulin Antibody Levels During Radioactive Iodine Treatment and Follow-Up: Long-Term Outcomes and Prognostic Indicators

Background: The lung is the most frequent site of distant metastasis from differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). However, lung metastasis from papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) with persistently negative thyroglobulin (Tg) and elevated Tg antibody (TgAb) levels is an extremely rare entity, and the prognosis is therefore elusive. We investigated the clinical characteristics, long-term outcomes, and prognostic factors of lung metastases in PTC patients with persistently negative thyroglobulin (Tg) and elevated Tg antibody (TgAb) levels during radioactive iodine (¹³¹I) treatment and follow-up. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 10,482 patients with DTC who underwent postoperative ¹³¹I treatment from 2007 to 2017 at Shanghai Sixth's People's Hospital. The relationships between progression-free survival (PFS) and several variables were assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses using the Kaplan-Meier method and a Cox proportional hazards model, respectively. Results: Forty-seven patients with PTC were enrolled in this study (4.48‰ of all patients with DTC). The median age at the initial diagnosis of lung metastasis was 39.6 ± 15.4 years, and the patients comprised 14 male and 33 female patients (male: female ratio = 1.00:2.36). Twenty-five patients had ¹³¹I avidity and 22 had non-¹³¹I avidity. At the end of the 5-years follow-up, 12 patients exhibited progressive disease (PD), and 2 patients had died. At the end of the 10-years follow-up, 21 patients showed PD and five patients had died. The 5- and 10-year PFS rates were 74.47 and 53.32%, respectively; the 5- and 10-years overall survival (OS) rates were 95.74 and 89.36%, respectively. The timing of diagnosis of lung metastases, maximal size of lung metastases, and ¹³¹I avidity were significantly associated with the 5-years PFS rate (P = 0.035, P = 0.030, and P<0.001, respectively). Only ¹³¹I avidity was associated with the 10-years PFS rate (P < 0.001). The multivariate analyses also showed that non-¹³¹I avidity were the independent poor prognostic factors for 10-years PFS at the end of follow-up (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Lung metastases from PTC in patients with persistently negative Tg and elevated TgAb levels had an excellent prognosis and survival rate during ¹³¹I treatment and follow-up. The loss of ¹³¹I avidity remained the strongest independent predictor of a poor prognosis and survival in these patients.

Refining the tumor-node-metastasis staging system for individualized treatment of differentiated thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) are staged according to the single age cut point in addition to anatomic extent. A novel staging system is needed to properly show the character and prognosis of DTC by considering age as a continuous variable. We aimed to refine stage and prognostic groups of the eighth edition tumor-node-metastasis (TNM-8) staging system for DTC and to suggest a possible revision.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective data abstraction study of patients with newly diagnosed DTC who were treated at one of two tertiary referral centres in Seoul, Korea between 1994 and 2005. We used recursive partitioning analysis to derive a new staging classification (TNM-RPA) and compared its prediction of cancer-specific survival with that of TNM-8.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 6342 patients with DTC who were followed up for a median of 11.4 years. Higher TNM-RPA groups were associated with increased risk of death (10-year cancer-specific survival for stages IA, IB, IIA, IIB, III, and IV: 99.6%, 98.1%, 93.0%, 92.4%, 75.1%, and 56.6%, respectively; P < 0.001). The C-index values were 0.869 (95% CI, 0.833-0.905) for the TNM-RPA and 0.819 (0.789-0.850) for TNM-8. The proportions of variance explained for the ability of the TNM-RPA and TNM-8 stages to predict cancer-specific survival were 7.1% and 5.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study presents a RPA-based TNM stage groupings that incorporate multiple age cutoffs and essential anatomic information, which can be conveniently used to facilitate the individual prediction of long-term cancer-specific survival in patients with DTC.

A comparison of the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC staging system in terms of predicting recurrence and survival in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

The recently published 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumour-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system was significantly updated following the thyroid cancer-related guidelines to provide better predictability of survival but not focus on recurrence. Therefore, we compared the predictive values of the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC staging systems for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) after thyroidectomy for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 2930 patients who underwent thyroidectomy and neck dissection for previously untreated PTC between 2006 and 2014. TNM stage was defined according to 7th and 8th editions. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to identify associations between variables and RFS or OS. Multivariate models for the AJCC TNM stages were adjusted for clinical and pathological variables.

RESULTS

A significant number of patients classified as T3 with overall TNM stages II-IV in the AJCC 7th edition were down-staged in the 8th edition. Unadjusted T classification and overall TNM staging in both the 7th and 8th editions were significantly associated with RFS and OS rates (P < 0.001). After adjustment for clinicopathological factors, the overall TNM stage according to the AJCC 8th edition, but not the 7th edition, remained significantly associated with RFS and OS (P < 0.05), with better predictability of recurrence and survival, in patients with PTC.

CONCLUSIONS

The 8th edition AJCC staging system down-staged a large proportion of PTC patients, resulting in better predictability of recurrence and survival compared to the previous staging system.

CONDENSED ABSTRACT

This study compared the abilities of the 7th and 8th edition AJCC staging systems to predict recurrence and overall survival in 2930 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma. The updated guidelines down-staged a large proportion of patients, resulting in better prediction of recurrence and survival than the previous staging system.

Prognostic value of the 8th edition of the tumor-node-metastasis classification for patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma: a single-institution study at a high-volume center in Japan

The tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system is most commonly adopted to evaluate the prognosis of patients with thyroid carcinoma. The 8^th edition of the TNM staging system, an extensively revised version of the 7^th edition, was recently released. We aimed to investigate whether and how well the 8^th edition reflects the cause-specific survival (CSS) of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma by analyzing the cases in 5,892 patients who underwent initial surgery at Kuma Hospital between 1987 and 2005. The median postoperative follow-up duration was 178 months (range: 6-357 months). One patient with T4b disease was excluded from the analysis. Overall, 116 (2.0%) patients died of thyroid carcinoma. The proportion of variance explained (PVE) for CSS in the 7^th and 8^th editions was 10.69 and 10.97, respectively. Using the 7^th edition, CSS of patients with stage IVA and stage III disease was similar (p = 0.32). In contrast, using the 8^th edition, CSS was poorer in stage II than in stage I (p < 0.001), in stage III than in stage II (p < 0.001), and in stage IVB than in stage III (p < 0.001). Similar results were observed for disease-free survival. Although we could not establish any objective evidence that the 8^th edition is superior to the 7^th edition, the 8^th edition is simpler and more convenient, as it includes fewer stages and addresses the issue of the 7^th edition where stage IVA and III patients had similar prognoses.

The effects of the Union for International Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer Tumour, Node, Metastasis system version 8 on staging of differentiated thyroid cancer: a comparison to version 7

OBJECTIVE

To assess the changes resulting from the changes from UICC/AJCC TNM version 7 to version 8 and to subsequently determine whether TNM version 8 is an improvement compared to previous iterations of the TNM system and other staging systems for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) with regard to prognostic power.

DESIGN

Database study of DTC patients treated in our centre between 1978 up to and including 1 July 2014. Results were compared to our previous comparison of prognostic systems using the same data set.

PATIENTS

2257 DTC patients.

MEASUREMENTS

Staging in accordance with TNM 7 and TNM 8. Thyroid cancer-specific mortality; comparison was based on p-values of univariate Cox regression analyses as well as analysis of the proportion of variance explained (PVE).

RESULTS

There is a redistribution from stage 3 to lower stages affecting 206 (9.1%) patients. DTC-related mortality according to Kaplan-Meier for younger and older patients in TNM 7 had a slightly lower prognostic power than that in accordance with TNM 8 (P = 8.0 10^-16 and P = 1.5 10^-21 , respectively). Overall staging is lower in 627/2257 (27.8%) patients. PVE (TNM 7: 0.29; TNM 8: 0.28) and the P-value of Cox regressions (TNM 7: P = 7.1*10^-52 ; TNM 8: P = 3.9*10^-49 ) for TNM version 8 are marginally lower than that for TNM version 7, but still better than for any other DTC staging system.

CONCLUSION

TNM 8 results in a marked downstaging of patients compared to TNM 7. Although some changes, like the change in age boundary, appear to be associated with an improvement in prognostic power, the overall effect of the changes does not improve the predictive power compared to TNM 7.

Prognostic indicators of outcomes in patients with lung metastases from differentiated thyroid carcinoma during long-term follow-up

BACKGROUND

Distant metastases, although uncommon, represent maximum disease-related mortality in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). Lungs are the most frequent sites of metastases. We aimed to evaluate long-term outcomes and identify prognostic factors in metastatic DTC limited to the lungs.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 89 patients with DTC and metastases limited to the lungs, who were treated between 1996 and 2012 at Samsung Medical Center. Progression-free survival (PFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates were evaluated according to clinicopathologic factors. Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent factors associated with structural progressive disease (PD) and cancer-specific death.

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 84 months, the 5- and 10-year CSS rates were 78% and 73%, respectively. Older age at diagnosis (≥55 years), radioactive iodine (RAI) nonavidity, preoperative or late diagnosis of metastasis and macro-nodular metastasis (≥1 cm) were predictive of decreased PFS and CSS. Multivariate analysis identified older age (P = .002), RAI nonavidity (P = .045) and preoperative (P = .030) or late diagnosis (P = .026) as independent predictors of structural PD. RAI avidity was also independent predictor of cancer-specific death (P = .025).

CONCLUSION

Patients with DTC and metastatic disease limited to the lungs had favourable long-term outcomes. Age, RAI avidity and timing of metastasis were found to be major factors for predicting prognosis.

Disease-Specific Mortality of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Patients in Korea: A Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Little is known regarding disease-specific mortality of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients and its risk factors in Korea.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed a large multi-center cohort of thyroid cancer from six Korean hospitals and included 8,058 DTC patients who underwent initial surgery between 1996 and 2005.

RESULTS

Mean age of patients at diagnosis was 46.2±12.3 years; 87% were females. Most patients had papillary thyroid cancer (PTC; 97%) and underwent total thyroidectomy (85%). Mean size of the primary tumor was 1.6±1.0 cm. Approximately 40% of patients had cervical lymph node (LN) metastases and 1.3% had synchronous distant metastases. During 11.3 years of follow-up, 150 disease-specific mortalities (1.9%) occurred; the 10-year disease-specific survival (DSS) rate was 98%. According to the year of diagnosis, the number of disease-specific mortality was not different. However, the rate of disease-specific mortality decreased during the study period (from 7.7% to 0.7%). Older age (≥45 years) at diagnosis, male, follicular thyroid cancer (FTC) versus PTC, larger tumor size (>2 cm), presence of extrathyroidal extension (ETE), lateral cervical LN metastasis, distant metastasis and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage were independent risk factors of disease-specific mortality of DTC patients.

CONCLUSION

The rate of disease-specific mortality of Korean DTC patients was 1.9%; the 10-year DSS rate was 98% during 1996 to 2005. Older age at diagnosis, male, FTC, larger tumor size, presence of ETE, lateral cervical LN metastasis, distant metastasis, and TNM stages were significant risk factors of disease-specific mortality of Korean DTC patients.

Comparison of the Seventh and Eighth Editions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control Tumor-Node-Metastasis Staging System for Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy and prognostic validity for disease-specific survival (DSS) of the eighth edition American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (TNM-8) compared to the seventh edition (TNM-7) in patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC).

METHODS

The seventh and eighth editions of the TNM staging system were applied to 1613 DTC patients who underwent thyroid surgery between 1996 and 2003. The proportion of variation explained and Harrell's c-index were evaluated to compare the predictive capability of DSS.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 44.7 years, and the median follow-up period was 11.2 years. When TNM-8 was applied, 63% of T3 and 3% of N1b DTCs were downgraded to T1/T2 and N1a, respectively. About 38% of patients were downstaged according to TNM-8. The 10-year DSS rates in TNM-7 stages I, II, III, and IV were 99.7%, 98.2%, 98.8%, and 83.2%, respectively. Those in TNM-8 stages I, II, III, and IV were 99.6%, 95.4%, 72.3%, and 48.6%, respectively. The proportion of variation explained values of TNM-7 and TNM-8 were 6.0% and 7.0%, respectively. The Harrell's c-index of TNM-7 was 0.86 and that of TNM-8 was 0.88.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant number of patients were reclassified to lower stages with the application of TNM-8 compared to TNM-7. Applying TNM-8 could improve the accuracy of the staging system for predicting DSS in patients with DTC.

Prognostic markers in well differentiated papillary and follicular thyroid cancer (WDTC)

OBJECTIVES

WDTC (papillary and follicular thyroid cancer) make up around 90% of all thyroid tumours. Overall, the prognosis in patients with WDTC is excellent. However, there are small cohorts of patients who experience a more aggressive form of disease which is often associated with certain poor prognostic factors. Identifying these patients at an early stage is imperative for guiding treatment decisions. With recent developments in this area we plan to discuss the current evidence surrounding prognostic markers.

METHODS

The literature regarding prognostic factors in WDTC was reviewed using an electronic database Medline - Pubmed. Using the MeSH search engine specific prognostic factors including age, size, grade, lymph node involvement, distant metastasis, extension/invasion, ethnic background, radioactive iodine avidity, and thyroglobulin level and their association with WDTC were evaluated. A broader search of prognostic markers in thyroid cancer was also carried out to avoid missing other pertinent markers.

RESULTS

Multiple clinical and pathologic variables have been shown to be poor prognostic factors in WDTC with statistical significance. Extensive extrathyroidal extension and age may be the most important factors when predicting clinical outcomes in WDTC, although the age threshold may be increased from 45 to 55 years in due course.

CONCLUSIONS

Management of WDTC has changed considerably over the last two years as reflected in evolving British and American Thyroid Guidelines. In all cases a combined multi-disciplinary approach, with consideration of the available guidelines and stratification systems should be utilised when planning an individualised treatment program to offer the best contemporary care to WDTC patients.

Prognostic value of the eighth edition AJCC TNM classification for differentiated thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The prognostic value of the proposed eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor, node, and metastasis (TNM) classification is currently unclear. The aim of the study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the eighth edition of the AJCC TNM classification.

METHODS

We retrospectively assessed 3176 patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) who underwent thyroidectomy at a tertiary Korean hospital from 1996 to 2005. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Performance of the eighth edition TNM with respect to prediction of CSS was assessed against the current seventh edition.

RESULTS

Upon reclassification according to the eighth edition, 37.6% of patients were down-staged. The proportions of stage I and II tumors increased from 61.9% to 81.1% and from 1.7% to 16.0%, respectively, whereas those of stage III and IVB (formerly IVC in the seventh edition) decreased from 27.6% to 2.3% and 0.8% to 0.5%, respectively. The proportions of variance explained (PVEs) for the ability of the eighth and the seventh edition to predict CSS were 3.9% and 2.9%, respectively. The C-index values were 0.765 (95% confidence interval 0.764-0.766) for the eighth edition and 0.736 (0.735-0.737) for the seventh edition.

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate that the eighth edition TNM more accurately predicts CSS for patients with DTC than does the seventh edition.

Refining Dynamic Risk Stratification and Prognostic Groups for Differentiated Thyroid Cancer With TERT Promoter Mutations

CONTEXT

Currently, no recurrence or mortality risk systems consider molecular testing when predicting thyroid cancer outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

We developed an integrative prognostic system that incorporates telomerase reverse transcription (TERT) promoter mutations into the recently proposed risk reclassification system after initial therapy [dynamic risk stratification (DRS)] to better categorize and predict outcomes.

DESIGN

A total of 357 differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients without initial distant metastasis were enrolled. Among patients with mutated TERT and wild-type, recurrence-free survival (RFS) was compared according to DRS grouping. Cox regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) to derive AHR groups. Performance of the AHR grouping system with respect to prediction of structural recurrence and cancer-specific survival (CSS) was assessed against the current DRS system and the tumor/node/metastasis (TNM) classification.

RESULTS

Among 357 patients, there were 90 recurrences and 15 cancer-related deaths during a median of 14 years of follow-up. Patients in higher AHR groups were at higher risk of recurrence (10-year RFS for AHR 1, 2, 3, and 4: 94.9%, 82.7%, 50.2%, and 23.1%; P < 0.001) and cancer-related death (10-year CSS: 100.0%. 98.7%, 94.2%, and 76.9%; P < 0.001). The proportions of variance explained (PVEs) for the ability of AHR and DRS grouping to predict recurrence were 22.4% and 18.5%. PVEs of AHR and TNM system to predict cancer-related deaths were 11.5% and 7.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

The AHR grouping system, a simple two-dimensional prognostic system, is as effective as DRS at predicting structural recurrence and provides clinical implication for long-term CSS in patients with nonmetastatic DTC.