Assessing ecological correlates of marine bird declines to inform marine conservation

Occupancy trends of overwintering coastal waterbird communities reveal guild-specific patterns of redistribution and shifting reliance on existing protected areas

Climate change and anthropogenic stressors are redistributing species and altering community composition globally. Protected areas (PAs) may not sufficiently protect populations of species undergoing distributional shifts, necessitating that we evaluate existing PAs and identify areas for future protection to conserve biodiversity across regional and temporal scales. Coastal waterbirds are important indicators of marine ecosystem health, representing mobile, long-lived, higher trophic-level consumers. Using a 20-year citizen science dataset (1999-2019) with a before-after control-intervention sampling framework for habitat protection, we applied dynamic occupancy models to assess winter occupancy trends along the Pacific coast of Canada. Specifically, we sought to understand potential drivers of regional declines, spatial commonalities among guilds, and changes in habitat use before and after PA designation, as well as between PAs and non-PAs. Occupancy trends varied regionally, with greater declines in the south compared to the north. Regional differences underlined potential range shifts, particularly for species with traits linked to temperature tolerance, movement, and high productivity foraging, as cold-tolerant, migratory benthivores and piscivores wintered farther north relative to 20 years ago or retreated to cold-water fjords. While 21 of 57 (36.8%) species responded positively to PA designation (before-after), greater occupancy declines tended to occur in PAs established pre-1999 relative to non-PAs (control-intervention). Since PAs are currently concentrated in the south, negative associations were most apparent for species retreating northward, but existing PAs may have a stabilizing or transitory effect on southern wintering species shifting into the region from farther south. We emphasize that conservation strategies must balance persistence of current communities with preserving the climate-adapted biodiversity of tomorrow by accounting for community-level effects of species moving into and out of existing PAs. Incorporating range shifts into PA planning by predicting distributional changes will allow conservation practitioners to identify priority habitats, such as cold-water refugia, for persistent wildlife communities.

Migration, breeding location, and seascape shape seabird assemblages in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico supports many seabird species, yet data gaps describing species composition and habitat use are prevalent. We used vessel-based observations from the Gulf of Mexico Marine Assessment Program for Protected Species to identify and characterize distinct seabird assemblages in the northern Gulf of Mexico (within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone; nGoM). Using cluster analysis of 17 seabird species, we identified assemblages based on seabird relative density. Vessel-based surveys documented the location, species, and number of seabirds across the nGoM between 2017-2019. For each assemblage, we identified the (co-)dominant species, spatial distribution, and areas of greater relative density. We also assessed the relationship of the total relative density within each assemblage with environmental, spatial, and temporal covariates. Of the species assessed, 76% (n = 13) breed predominantly outside the nGoM basin. We identified four seabird assemblages. Two assemblages, one dominated by black tern and the other co-dominated by northern gannet/laughing gull, occurred on the continental shelf. An assemblage dominated by sooty tern occurred along the continental slope into pelagic waters. The fourth assemblage had no dominant species, was broadly distributed, and was composed of observations with low relative density ('singles' assemblage). Differentiation of assemblages was linked to migratory patterns, residency, and breeding location. The spatial distributions and relationships of the black tern and northern gannet/laughing gull assemblages with environmental covariates indicate associations with river outflows and ports. The sooty tern assemblage overlapped an area prone to mesoscale feature formation. The singles assemblage may reflect commuting and dispersive behaviors. These findings highlight the importance of seasonal migrations and dynamic features across the seascape, shaping seabird assemblages. Considering the potential far-ranging effects of interactions with seabirds in the nGoM, awareness of these unique patterns and potential links with other fauna could inform future monitoring, research, restoration, offshore energy, and aquaculture development in this highly industrialized sea.

Modelling entanglement rates to estimate mortality of marine birds in British Columbia commercial salmon gillnet fisheries

Incidental mortality of marine birds in fisheries is an international conservation concern, including in Canada where globally significant populations of vulnerable diving species overlap with coastal gillnet fisheries. In British Columbia (BC), commercial salmon gillnet fishing effort was historically very high (>200,000 days fished annually in the early 1950's), and although this fishery has declined, over 6,400 days were fished annually in the 2006-2016 decade. Observations of seabird bycatch within the commercial fishery, however, are limited in both scope (comprising <2% of cumulative effort 2001-2016) and in time (being available only from 1995 onwards and only for a small number of areas). Using onboard fishery observer data from commercial, test and experimental fisheries (1995-2016), we developed two models to estimate the number of marine birds captured per set in sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and chum (O. keta) salmon gillnet fisheries employing a Generalized Linear Mixed Modeling (GLMM) approach in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, with observer data post-stratified by fisheries management area and year. Using estimates of total commercial fishing effort (estimated number of sets, 2001-2016) we applied the models to extrapolate annual take for the main bird species (or groups) of interest. Multinomial probability estimates of species composition were calculated based upon a sample of 852 birds identified to species that were associated with sockeye or chum fisheries, enabling estimates (with CIs) of potential numbers of the mostly commonly observed species (common murres (Uria aalge), rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata), and marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus)) entangled annually in commercial sockeye and chum salmon gillnet fisheries throughout BC. Conservative estimates of annual losses to entanglement were greatest for common murres (2,846, 95% CI: 2,628-3,047), followed by rhinoceros auklets (641, CI: 549-770) and marbled murrelets (228 CI: 156-346). Populations of all three of these alcids species are currently in decline in BC and entanglement mortality is a conservation concern. Gillnet mortality has been identified as a longstanding threat to marbled murrelet populations, which are recognized as Threatened in the Canada and the United States of America (USA). In addition, 622 (CI: 458-827) birds from 12 other species were estimated to be entangled annually. We conclude that cumulative mortality from incidental take in salmon gillnet fisheries is one of the largest sources of human-induced mortality for marine birds in BC waters, a conservation concern impacting both breeders and visiting migrants.

Human-Induced Long-Term Shifts in Gull Diet from Marine to Terrestrial Sources in North America's Coastal Pacific: More Evidence from More Isotopes (δ2H, δ34S)

Measurements of naturally occurring stable isotopes in tissues of seabirds and their prey are a powerful tool for investigating long-term changes in marine foodwebs. Recent isotopic (δ(15)N, δ(13)C) evidence from feathers of Glaucous-winged Gulls (Larus glaucescens) has shown that over the last 150 years, this species shifted from a midtrophic marine diet to one including lower trophic marine prey and/or more terrestrial or freshwater foods. However, long-term isotopic patterns of δ(15)N and δ(13)C cannot distinguish between the relative importance of lower trophic-level marine foods and terrestrial sources. We examined 48 feather stable-hydrogen (δ(2)H) and -sulfur (δ(34)S) isotope values from this same 150-year feather set and found additional isotopic evidence supporting the hypothesis that gulls shifted to terrestrial and/or freshwater prey. Mean feather δ(2)H and δ(34)S values (± SD) declined from the earliest period (1860-1915; n = 12) from -2.5 ± 21.4 ‰ and 18.9 ± 2.7 ‰, respectively, to -35.5 ± 15.5 ‰ and 14.8 ± 2.4 ‰, respectively, for the period 1980-2009 (n = 12). We estimated a shift of ∼ 30% increase in dependence on terrestrial/freshwater sources. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that gulls increased terrestrial food inputs in response to declining forage fish availability.

Estimation of Coast-Wide Population Trends of Marbled Murrelets in Canada Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a seabird listed as 'Threatened' by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996-2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend ('year effects'), and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01%) indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr) and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr) Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey.

Using citizen-science data to identify local hotspots of seabird occurrence

Seabirds have been identified and used as indicators of ecosystem processes such as climate change and human activity in nearshore ecosystems around the globe. Temporal and spatial trends have been documented at large spatial scales, but few studies have examined more localized patterns of spatiotemporal variation, by species or functional group. In this paper, we apply spatial occupancy models to assess the spatial patchiness and interannual trends of 18 seabird species in the Puget Sound region (Washington State, USA). Our dataset, the Puget Sound Seabird Survey of the Seattle Audubon Society, is unique in that it represents a seven-year study, collected with a focus on winter months (October-April). Despite historic declines of seabirds in the region over the last 50 years, results from our study are optimistic, suggesting increases in probabilities of occurrence for 14 of the 18 species included. We found support for declines in occurrence for white-winged scoters, brants, and 2 species of grebes. The decline of Western grebes in particular is troubling, but in agreement with other recent studies that have shown support for a range shift south in recent years, to the southern end of California Current.