Divergence in sink contributions to population persistence

Local buffer mechanisms for population persistence

Assessing and predicting the persistence of populations is essential for the conservation and control of species. Here, we argue that local mechanisms require a better conceptual synthesis to facilitate a more holistic consideration along with regional mechanisms known from metapopulation theory. We summarise the evidence for local buffer mechanisms along with their capacities and emphasise the need to include multiple buffer mechanisms in studies of population persistence. We propose an accessible framework for local buffer mechanisms that distinguishes between damping (reducing fluctuations in population size) and repelling (reducing population declines) mechanisms. We highlight opportunities for empirical and modelling studies to investigate the interactions and capacities of buffer mechanisms to facilitate better ecological understanding in times of ecological upheaval.

Preliminary population studies of the grassland swallowtail butterfly Euryades corethrus (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae)

Euryades corethrus is a Troidini butterfly (Papilionidae, Papilioninae), endemic to grasslands in southern Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay. Formerly abundant, nowadays it is in the Red list of endangered species for those areas. During its larval stage, it feeds on Aristolochia spp, commonly found in southern grasslands. These native grassland areas are diminishing, being converted to crops and pastures, causing habitat loss for Aristolochia and E. corethrus. This study aimed to assess the genetic diversity, population structure and demographic history of E. corethrus. We sampled eight populations from Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and based on Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I (COI) molecular marker, our results suggest a low genetic variability between populations, presence of gene flow and, consequently, lack of population structure. A single maternally inherited-genetic marker is insufficient for population-level decisions, but barcoding is a useful tool during early stages of population investigation, bringing out genomic diversity patterns within the target species. Those populations likely faced a bottleneck followed by a rapid expansion during the last glaciation and subsequent stabilization in effective population size. Habitat loss is a threat, which might cause isolation, loss of genetic variability and, ultimately, extinction of E. corethrus if no habitat conservation policy is adopted.

A multispecies test of source-sink indicators to prioritize habitat for declining populations

For species at risk of decline or extinction in source-sink systems, sources are an obvious target for habitat protection actions. However, the way in which source habitats are identified and prioritized can reduce the effectiveness of conservation actions. Although sources and sinks are conceptually defined using both demographic and movement criteria, simplifications are often required in systems with limited data. To assess the conservation outcomes of alternative source metrics and resulting prioritizations, we simulated population dynamics and extinction risk for 3 endangered species. Using empirically based habitat population models, we linked habitat maps with measured site- or habitat-specific demographic conditions, movement abilities, and behaviors. We calculated source-sink metrics over a range of periods of data collection and prioritized consistently high-output sources for conservation. We then tested whether prioritized patches identified the habitats that most affected persistence by removing them and measuring the population response. Conservation decisions based on different source-sink metrics and durations of data collection affected species persistence. Shorter time series obscured the ability of metrics to identify influential habitats, particularly in temporally variable and slowly declining populations. Data-rich source-sink metrics that included both demography and movement information did not always identify the habitats with the greatest influence on extinction risk. In some declining populations, patch abundance better predicted influential habitats for short-term regional persistence. Because source-sink metrics (i.e., births minus deaths; births and immigrations minus deaths and emigration) describe net population conditions and cancel out gross population counts, they may not adequately identify influential habitats in declining populations. For many nonequilibrium populations, new metrics that maintain the counts of individual births, deaths, and movement may provide additional insight into habitats that most influence persistence.

Constraints Imposed by a Natural Landscape Override Offspring Fitness Effects to Shape Oviposition Decisions in Wild Forked Fungus Beetles

Oviposition site decisions often maximize offspring fitness, but costs constraining choice can cause females to oviposit in poor developmental environments. It is unclear whether these constraints cumulatively outweigh offspring fitness to determine oviposition decisions in wild populations. Understanding how constraints shape oviposition in natural landscapes is a critical step toward revealing how maternal behavior influences fundamental phenomena like the evolution of specialization and the use of sink environments. Here, we used a genetic capture-recapture technique to reconstruct the oviposition decisions of individual females in a natural metapopulation of a beetle (Bolitotherus cornutus) that oviposits on three fungus species. We measured larval fitness-related traits (mass, development time, survival) on each fungus and compared the oviposition preferences of females in laboratory versus field tests. Larval fitness differed substantially among fungi, and females preferred a high-quality (high larval fitness) fungus in laboratory trials. However, females frequently laid eggs on the lowest-quality fungus in the wild. They preferred high-quality fungi when moving between oviposition sites, but this preference disappeared as the distance between sites increased and was inconsistent between study plots. Our results suggest that constraints on oviposition preferences in natural landscapes are sufficiently large to drive oviposition in poor developmental environments even when offspring fitness consequences are severe.

HexSim: a modeling environment for ecology and conservation

CONTEXT

Simulation models are increasingly used in both theoretical and applied studies to explore system responses to natural and anthropogenic forcing functions, develop defensible predictions of future conditions, challenge simplifying assumptions that facilitated past research, and to train students in scientific concepts and technology. Researcher's increased use of simulation models has created a demand for new platforms that balance performance, utility, and flexibility.

OBJECTIVES

We describe HexSim, a powerful new spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling framework that will have applications spanning diverse landscape settings, species, stressors, and disciplines (e.g. ecology, conservation, genetics, epidemiology). We begin with a model overview and follow-up with a discussion of key formative studies that influenced HexSim's development. We then describe specific model applications of relevance to readers of Landscape Ecology. Our goal is to introduce readers to this new modeling platform, and to provide examples characterizing its novelty and utility.

CONCLUSIONS

With this publication, we conclude a >10 year development effort, and assert that our HexSim model is mature, robust, extremely well tested, and ready for adoption by the research community. The HexSim model, documentation, worked examples, and other materials can be freely obtained from the website www.hexsim.net.

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of source-sink dynamics

Many factors affect the presence and exchange of individuals among subpopulations and influence not only the emergence, but the strength of ensuing source–sink dynamics within metapopulations. Yet their relative contributions remain largely unexplored. To help identify the characteristics of empirical systems that are likely to exhibit strong versus weak source–sink dynamics and inform their differential management, we compared the relative roles of influential factors in strengthening source–sink dynamics. In a series of controlled experiments within a spatially explicit individual‐based model framework, we varied patch quality, patch size, the dispersion of high‐ and low‐quality patches, population growth rates, dispersal distances, and environmental stochasticity in a factorial design. We then recorded source–sink dynamics that emerged from the simulated habitat and population factors. Long‐term differences in births and deaths were quantified for sources and sinks in each system and used in a statistical model to rank the influences of key factors. Our results suggest that systems with species capable of rapid growth, occupying habitat patches with more disparate qualities, with interspersed higher‐ and lower‐quality habitats, and that experience relatively stable environments (i.e., fewer negative perturbations) are more likely to exhibit strong source–sink dynamics. Strong source–sink dynamics emerged under diverse combinations of factors, suggesting that simple inferences of process from pattern will likely be inadequate to predict and assess the strength of source–sink dynamics. Our results also suggest that it may be more difficult to detect and accurately measure source–sink dynamics in slow‐growing populations, highly variable environments, and where a subtle gradient of habitat quality exists.