Prioritizing sites for conservation based on similarity to historical baselines and feasibility of protection

Social feasibility assessments in conservation translocations

Improving the effectiveness of conservation translocations could contribute to reversing global biodiversity loss. Although evaluations of ecological factors affecting translocation outcomes are commonplace, consideration of human social factors remains rare, hindering improvements to this conservation practice. We analysed 550 translocation case studies to explore the inclusion of social factors in project feasibility assessments. Reviewed projects often failed to assess social feasibility, and assessments, where attempted, tended to be narrow in scope. Consequently, challenges such as proactively addressing conflict often remained unaddressed. Insufficient knowledge sharing and prioritisation of ecological feasibility, to the detriment of social feasibility, remain barriers to effective planning. Successful outcomes of translocations are linked to early assessment of social feasibility and to the establishment of long-term commitments between people, places, and partners.

Time travelling through local ecological knowledge regarding an endangered species

European freshwater pearl mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera) populations are declining despite a growing effort to conserve them. Here we used a combination of local ecological knowledge (LEK) and field sampling to assess past and current distribution and conservation status of this endangered species in Cávado and Neiva Rivers (Portugal). We performed face-to-face interviews in both rivers and sampled the entire area where the respondents confirmed the historical presence of this species. Abiotic characterization, water quality and fish diversity were also assessed in both rivers. We found that freshwater pearl mussels are now possibly extinct in Cávado River but almost 50% of the respondents confirm its presence in the past, especially elders that lived in villages near its historical distribution. To the contrary, and although the species is still present in Neiva River, only 3.8% of the respondents remembered its presence in the past. In both rivers, respondents suggested pollution as the most important explanation for the freshwater pearl mussels decline. However, nowadays both rivers present excellent water quality and trout Salmo trutta (the freshwater pearl mussel fish host) is still abundant. Since we identified the areas where the species was present in a recent past, this information is vital for possible management actions with the aim of re-introduce or increase the abundance of M. margaritifera populations and/or for the rehabilitation of habitats in both rivers. We also highlight the vital importance of getting LEK, mainly from elders, in order to avoid shifting baseline syndromes and to get qualitative accurate information of past references and/or experience with historical conditions. Results reported here reinforce concern about the conservation status of freshwater pearl mussel populations in Portugal and can be used to guide future research and management initiatives to better conserve this species.

Hotspots of species loss do not vary across future climate scenarios in a drought-prone river basin

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions of species around the world, but estimates of species' outcomes vary widely among competing climate scenarios. Where should conservation resources be directed to maximize expected conservation benefits given future climate uncertainty? Here, we explore this question by quantifying variation in fish species' distributions across future climate scenarios in the Red River basin south-central United States. We modeled historical and future stream fish distributions using a suite of environmental covariates derived from high-resolution hydrologic and climatic modeling of the basin. We quantified variation in outcomes for individual species across climate scenarios and across space, and identified hotspots of species loss by summing changes in probability of occurrence across species. Under all climate scenarios, we find that the distribution of most fish species in the Red River Basin will contract by 2050. However, the variability across climate scenarios was more than 10 times higher for some species than for others. Despite this uncertainty in outcomes for individual species, hotspots of species loss tended to occur in the same portions of the basin across all climate scenarios. We also find that the most common species are projected to experience the greatest range contractions, underscoring the need for directing conservation resources toward both common and rare species. Our results suggest that while it may be difficult to predict which species will be most impacted by climate change, it may nevertheless be possible to identify spatial priorities for climate mitigation actions that are robust to future climate uncertainty. These findings are likely to be generalizable to other ecosystems around the world where future climate conditions follow prevailing historical patterns of key environmental covariates.

Shifted distribution baselines: neglecting long-term biodiversity records risks overlooking potentially suitable habitat for conservation management

Setting appropriate conservation measures to halt the loss of biodiversity requires a good understanding of species' habitat requirements and potential distribution. Recent (past few decades) ecological data are typically used to estimate and understand species' ecological niches. However, historical local extinctions may have truncated species-environment relationships, resulting in a biased perception of species' habitat preferences. This may result in incorrect assessments of the area potentially available for their conservation. Incorporating long-term (centuries-old) occurrence records with recent records may provide better information on species-environment relationships and improve the modelling and understanding of habitat suitability. We test whether neglecting long-term occurrence records leads to an underestimation of species' historical niche and potential distribution and identify which species are more vulnerable to this effect. We compare outputs of species distribution models and niche hypervolumes built using recent records only with those built using both recent and long-term (post-1500) records, for a set of 34 large mammal species in South Africa. We find that, while using recent records only is adequate for some species, adding historical records in the analyses impacts estimates of the niche and habitat suitability for 12 species (34%) in our dataset, and that this effect is significantly higher for carnivores. These results show that neglecting long-term biodiversity records in spatial analyses risks misunderstanding, and generally underestimating, species' niches, which in turn may lead to ill-informed management decisions, with significant implications for the effectiveness of conservation efforts. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'