Time discounting and the decision to protect areas that are near and threatened or remote and cheap to acquire

Quantifying population-level conservation impacts for a perpetual conservation program on private land

Area-based targets, such as percentages of regions protected, are popular metrics of success in the protection of nature. While easily quantified, these targets can be uninformative about the effectiveness of conservation interventions and should be complemented by program impact evaluations. However, most impact evaluations have examined the effect of protected areas on deforestation. Studies that have extended these evaluations to more dynamic systems or different outcomes are less common, largely due to data availability. In these cases, simulations might prove to be a valuable tool for gaining an understanding of the potential range of program effect sizes. Here, we employ simulations of wetland drainage to estimate the impact of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Small Wetlands Acquisition Program (SWAP) across a ten-year period in terms of wetland area, and breeding waterfowl and brood abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana. Using our simulation results, we estimate a plausible range of program impact for the SWAP as an avoided loss of between 0.00% and 0.02% of the carrying capacity for broods and breeding waterfowl from 2008-2017. Despite the low programmatic impact that these results suggest, the perpetual nature of SWAP governance provides promising potential for a higher cumulative conservation impact in the long term if future wetland drainage occurs.

The economics of species extinction: An economist's viewpoint

There is growing evidence to suggest that there is an increase in species extinction occurring globally. In this article, we briefly review the literature on the economics of species extinction, examining what is meant by extinction before explaining how economics has conceptualised this. The initial economics literature on species extinction focuses largely on renewable resources, in particular fisheries, but has subsequently evolved to cover many aspects of biodiversity across all physical scales, employing an increasing array of methodological tools. We also consider aspects of cultural and societal extinctions (e.g. local languages, local knowledge) and how this is positively correlated with loss of biodiversity, as well as an economist's outlook on the potential to re-capture value post-extinction.

Dual Discounting in Renewable Resource Planning under Risk

Renewable resource planning and management projects entail evaluating economic and ecological criteria in the long term. During the past decade or so, dual discounting--ecological criteria discounted at a smaller rate than that for economic criteria--has been proposed for such projects as an alternative to the prevailing single-discounting scheme, out of theoretical and empirical considerations. We focus on how to apply this principle in planning problems that involve a multitude of risk in the attendant biological-economic system. A stochastic dynamic programming framework is introduced which allows dual discounting rates and finds the optimal decisions (passively) adapting to changes in the system. Furthermore, we show how to evaluate the variances of the criteria in this framework. With a case study of managing public forestlands in the US Pacific Northwestern region for both timber return and habitat preservation for the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), we illustrate the impacts that the dual-discounting scheme has on the trade-off between conflicting management objectives, the optimal planning strategy, the temporal development of the portion of the forestlands suitable for owl habitats, as well as its steady-state expected value and standard deviation.