Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas

Mapping the value of commercial fishing and potential costs of offshore wind energy on the U.S: West Coast: Towards an assessment of resource use tradeoffs

The West Coast of the U.S. has a vast offshore wind energy (OWE) electricity generation potential with value on the order of billions of USD, and pressure is mounting to develop large OWE projects. However, this seascape has numerous existing resource extraction uses, including a multi-billion dollar commercial fishing industry, which create the potential for conflict. To date, spatially explicit comparisons of OWE and commercial fisheries value have not been done, but are essential for marine spatial planning and for investigating the tradeoffs of OWE development on existing marine uses. In this analysis, we generate maps of OWE levelized cost of energy and of total economic activity generated by the top eight commercial fishing targets that account for the vast majority (~84%) of landed revenue off the U.S. West Coast. We quantify spatial overlap between these two ocean uses and use multiobjective optimization to develop tradeoff frontiers to investigate implications for both sectors from established state goals or mandates for OWE power generation capacity. There are clear differences in the exposure of each fishery in their traditional fishing grounds as a function of differing OWE capacity goals and outcomes vary depending on whether OWE development goals are achieved at a state-by-state level or a region-wide level. Responsible siting of OWE projects includes careful consideration of existing commercial fishing activities, and responsible transition to renewable energies on the West Coast and elsewhere accounts for the socio-economic consequences of the total economic activity associated with each fishery.

Conservation benefits of a large marine protected area network that spans multiple ecosystems

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely implemented tools for long-term ocean conservation and resource management. Assessments of MPA performance have largely focused on specific ecosystems individually and have rarely evaluated performance across multiple ecosystems either in an individual MPA or across an MPA network. We evaluated the conservation performance of 59 MPAs in California's large MPA network, which encompasses 4 primary ecosystems (surf zone, kelp forest, shallow reef, deep reef) and 4 bioregions, and identified MPA attributes that best explain performance. Using a meta-analytic framework, we evaluated the ability of MPAs to conserve fish biomass, richness, and diversity. At the scale of the network and for 3 of 4 regions, the biomass of species targeted by fishing was positively associated with the level of regulatory protection and was greater inside no-take MPAs, whereas species not targeted by fishing had similar biomass in MPAs and areas open to fishing. In contrast, species richness and diversity were not as strongly enhanced by MPA protection. The key features of conservation effectiveness included MPA age, preimplementation fisheries pressure, and habitat diversity. Important drivers of MPA effectiveness for single MPAs were consistent across MPAs in the network, spanning regions and ecosystems. With international targets aimed at protecting 30% of the world's oceans by 2030, MPA design and assessment frameworks should consider conservation performance at multiple ecologically relevant scales, from individual MPAs to MPA networks.

Ecological success of no-take marine protected areas: Using population dynamics theory to inform a global meta-analysis

Adaptively managing marine protected areas (MPAs) requires accurately assessing whether established MPAs are achieving their goals of protecting and conserving biomass, especially for harvested populations. Ecological MPA assessments commonly compare inside of the MPA to a reference point outside of and/or before implementation (i.e., calculating "response ratios"). Yet, MPAs are not simple ecological experiments; by design, protected populations interact with those outside, and population dynamic responses can be nonlinear. This complicates assessment interpretations. Here, we used a two-patch population model to explore how MPA response ratios (outside-inside, before-after, and before-after-control-impact [BACI]) for fished populations behave under different conditions, like whether the population is receiving a sustainable larval supply or if it is declining despite protection from harvest. We then conducted a Bayesian evaluation of MPA effects on fish and invertebrate populations based on data collected from 82 published studies on 264 no-take MPAs worldwide, using the results of an earlier global meta-analysis as priors. We considered the effects of calculating different summary metrics on these results, drawing on the theoretical insights from our population model as a comparative framework. We demonstrate that not all response ratio comparison types provide the same information: For example, outside-inside and BACI comparisons can fail to detect population decline within MPAs, whereas before-after comparisons likely detect that pattern. Considering these limitations, we nonetheless found that MPAs globally are producing positive outcomes, with on average greater biomass, density, and organism size within their boundaries than reference sites. However, only a small portion of studies (18 of 82) provided the temporal data necessary to determine that protection, on average, has led to increased abundance of populations within MPAs over time. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the underlying system dynamics when assessing MPA effects. Assuming that large outside-inside or BACI response ratios always reflect large and net positive conservation effects may lead to misleading conclusions, we recommend that: (1) when assessing specific MPA effects, empirical findings be considered alongside theoretical knowledge relevant to that MPA system, and (2) management should respond to the local conditions and outcomes, rather than a blanket expectation for positive MPA effects.

Fishery Management Enforcement Gradients to Achieve Fishery Goals

Marine protected areas (MPAs) can allow some fish populations to rebuild within their borders in areas impacted by overfishing, but the effectiveness of reserves is highly dependent on how effectively fishing mortality is controlled, which in turn depends on the level of fishery management implementation. In Cuba’s Gardens of the Queen MPA, the largest in the Caribbean, a variety of fishery management measures have been implemented to ensure the social, economic, and political viability of protecting such a large area. Here, we evaluate the biological response, in terms of fish density and the biomass of commercially valuable and ecologically important reef fish species, to a spatial gradient of fishery management enforcement, in terms of fish density and biomass, of commercially valuable and ecologically important reef fish species. The enforcement gradient is characterized by the level of protection, fishing effort, patrolling effort, distance to the nearest fishing port, and fishing intensity. Fish density and biomass were estimated from visual scuba surveys. Areas with higher levels of enforcement support higher levels of average biomass (up to 1378 kg/ha) and density (up to 2367 indv./ha) of commercially important fishes in comparison to areas with very low or no enforcement (estimates of 757 kg/ha average biomass and 1090 indv./ha average density, respectively). These fish density and biomass levels can serve as proxies in the development of harvest control rules that adjust fishing pressure according to the ratio of fished density or biomass to unfished density or biomass, through the use of the MPA Density Ratio method.

Welcoming More Participation in Open Data Science for the Oceans

Open science is a global movement happening across all research fields. Enabled by technology and the open web, it builds on years of efforts by individuals, grassroots organizations, institutions, and agencies. The goal is to share knowledge and broaden participation in science, from early ideation to making research outputs openly accessible to all (open access). With an emphasis on transparency and collaboration, the open science movement dovetails with efforts to increase diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging in science and society. The US Biden-Harris Administration and many other US government agencies have declared 2023 the Year of Open Science, providing a great opportunity to boost participation in open science for the oceans. For researchers day-to-day, open science is a critical piece of modern analytical workflows with increasing amounts of data. Therefore, we focus this article on open data science-the tooling and people enabling reproducible, transparent, inclusive practices for data-intensive research-and its intersection with the marine sciences. We discuss the state of various dimensions of open science and argue that technical advancements have outpaced our field's culture change to incorporate them. Increasing inclusivity and technical skill building are interlinked and must be prioritized within the marine science community to find collaborative solutions for responding to climate change and other threats to marine biodiversity and society.

Ecological effectiveness of marine protected areas across the globe in the scientific literature

A systematic literature review (SLR) of scientific articles on the effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPAs) to conserve biodiversity in the 2010-2019 decade using Scopus was done. Only studies that used Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI-type) research designs and at least one marine biodiversity indicator were included. The 23 studies included in the review were published in 19 journals and comprised 66 MPAs from 18 countries from the five continents. Fifty-seven percent of the studies used species-specific indicators of MPA effectiveness, chiefly density/abundance and size of organisms. Over 90% of the studies used incomplete research designs, with just 9% using BACI-type designs or over. Just over half of the studies reported positive or slightly positive ecological outcomes from MPAs, with 17.4% of them reporting negative or slightly negative outcomes, and 30.4% reporting mixed or inconclusive outcomes. Legally stringent reserves clearly outperformed multiple-use MPAs ecologically. The major stated pressures to both types of MPAs related to fishing, whereas the main mentioned MPA effectiveness factors included managerial and regulatory issues. Our results add to the existing evidence that the global ocean coverage by legally stringent reserves should be expanded if effective marine biodiversity conservation is to be achieved.

Recruitment variability and sampling design interact to influence the detectability of protected area effects

Correctly identifying the effects of a human impact on a system is a persistent challenge in ecology, driven partly by the variable nature of natural systems. This is particularly true in many marine fishery species, which frequently experience large temporal fluctuations in recruitment that produce interannual variations in populations. This variability complicates efforts to maintain stocks at management targets or detect the effects of rebuilding efforts. We address this challenge in the context of no-take marine reserves by exploring how variable larval recruitment could interact with the timing of reserve establishment and choice of sampling design to affect population dynamics and the detectability of reserve effects. To predict population changes in the years following a no-take reserve implementation, we first tested for periodicity in larval recruitment in an important U.S. Pacific coast recreational fishery species (kelp bass, Paralabrax clathratus) and then included that pattern in a population model. We also used this model to determine the detectability of population increases under alternative sampling approaches and minimum age sampled. Kelp bass larval recruitment in the Channel Islands, California, peaked every about six (major) and about two (minor) years. Our model showed that establishing a reserve during a peak or trough enhanced or delayed, respectively, the post-reserve population increases. However, establishing a reserve during a recruitment peak could obscure a failing reserve, that is, a reserve that is unable to secure longer-term metapopulation persistence. Recruitment peaks and troughs also interacted with sampling design to affect the detectability of reserve effects. Designs that compared inside-outside were the most robust to variable recruitment, but failed to capture whether the reserve has improved metapopulation growth. Designs that included a time element (e.g., before-after) are more suited to assessing reserve effectiveness, but were sensitive to recruitment variation and detectability can change year-to-year. Notably, detectability did not always increase monotonically with reserve age; the optimal time for detectability depended on the minimum age of organisms sampled and was greatest when the cohort of a major recruitment peak first appeared in the sampling. We encourage managers to account for variable recruitment when planning monitoring and assessment programs.

Fishing activity before closure, during closure, and after reopening of the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument

Evaluation of the economic impacts of marine protected areas is hampered by the fact that it is impossible to observe what would have happened if the protected area had never been closed to fishing (the counterfactual). Catch reports and vessel tracks are used to perform an analysis of the potential negative economic impacts of establishing the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument (located off the east coast of the United States of America) on three commercially important fisheries that were identified as having potential to be harmed. I conclude that there was little to no negative impact on any of the fisheries. I also test for, but find no evidence of, a Blue Paradox effect. Due to political factors largely unrelated to fisheries status, the protected area was reopened to commercial fishing on June 5th, 2020. I use this event, which was reversed sixteen months later, to test whether there were any economic benefits from reopening. I do not observe an increase in catch, a reduction in distance traveled, or an increase in relative fishing effort inside the protected area (compared to historical trends), consistent with the post-closure findings.