Eurotransplant donor-risk-index and recipient factors: influence on long-term outcome after liver transplantation - A large single-center experience

Viability assessment and transplantation of extended criteria donor liver grafts using normothermic machine perfusion

BACKGROUND

The scarcity of available liver grafts necessitates the use of organs from extended criteria donors, a practice associated with an increased risk of graft failure. A notable percentage of deceased donor liver allografts are rejected due to subjective criteria. Normothermic machine perfusion holds promise for introducing objective parameters into this decision-making process. The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of standard criteria and extended criteria donor allografts after liver transplantation, following viability assessment, using normothermic machine perfusion.

METHODS

Liver allografts preserved by normothermic machine perfusion before liver transplantation at the University Hospital of Münster were retrospectively analyzed. Organs were stratified according to the Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index. In total, 101 liver grafts were included in this study and divided into 2 groups: (1) standard criteria donors with a Donor Risk Index <1.8 (DRI-low) and (2) extended criteria donors with a Donor Risk Index ≥1.8 (DRI-high).

RESULTS

An increased risk profile of donor livers, as assessed by the Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index, did not correlate with patient or graft survival. High-risk liver grafts were effectively transplanted into recipients with different risk levels after viability assessment by normothermic machine perfusion. However, the recipients' model for end-stage liver disease scores showed a significant association with both overall patient and graft survival.

CONCLUSION

The use of normothermic machine perfusion for viability assessment allows safe transplantation of high-risk donor livers and effectively addresses the disparity between donor liver availability and transplantation demand.

Use of machine learning models for the prognostication of liver transplantation: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is a life-saving intervention for patients with end-stage liver disease. However, the equitable allocation of scarce donor organs remains a formidable challenge. Prognostic tools are pivotal in identifying the most suitable transplant candidates. Traditionally, scoring systems like the model for end-stage liver disease have been instrumental in this process. Nevertheless, the landscape of prognostication is undergoing a transformation with the integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence models.

AIM

To assess the utility of ML models in prognostication for LT, comparing their per formance and reliability to established traditional scoring systems.

METHODS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines, we conducted a thorough and standardized literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE database. Our search imposed no restrictions on publication year, age, or gender. Exclusion criteria encompassed non-English stu dies, review articles, case reports, conference papers, studies with missing data, or those exhibiting evident methodological flaws.

RESULTS

Our search yielded a total of 64 articles, with 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. Among the selected studies, 60.8% originated from the United States and China combined. Only one pediatric study met the criteria. Notably, 91% of the studies were published within the past five years. ML models consistently demonstrated satisfactory to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values (ranging from 0.6 to 1) across all studies, surpassing the performance of traditional scoring systems. Random forest exhibited superior predictive capa bilities for 90-d mortality following LT, sepsis, and acute kidney injury (AKI). In contrast, gradient boosting excelled in predicting the risk of graft-versus-host disease, pneumonia, and AKI.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the potential of ML models in guiding decisions related to allograft allocation and LT, marking a significant evolution in the field of prognostication.

Prognostic role of the Donor Risk Index, the Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index, and the Balance of Risk score on graft loss after liver transplantation

This study aimed to identify cutoff values for donor risk index (DRI), Eurotransplant (ET)-DRI, and balance of risk (BAR) scores that predict the risk of liver graft loss. MEDLINE and Web of Science databases were searched systematically and unrestrictedly. Graft loss odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were assessed by meta-analyses using Mantel-Haenszel tests with a random-effects model. Cutoff values for predicting graft loss at 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years were analyzed for each of the scores. Measures of calibration and discrimination used in studies validating the DRI and the ET-DRI were summarized. DRI ≥ 1.4 (six studies, n = 35 580 patients) and ET-DRI ≥ 1.4 (four studies, n = 11 666 patients) were associated with the highest risk of graft loss at all time points. BAR > 18 was associated with the highest risk of 3-month and 1-year graft loss (n = 6499 patients). A DRI cutoff of 1.8 and an ET-DRI cutoff of 1.7 were estimated using a summary receiver operator characteristic curve, but the sensitivity and specificity of these cutoff values were low. A DRI and ET-DRI score ≥ 1.4 and a BAR score > 18 have a negative influence on graft survival, but these cutoff values are not well suited for predicting graft loss.

The role of recipient myosteatosis in graft and patient survival after deceased donor liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Myosteatosis is associated with perioperative outcomes in orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Here, we investigated the effects of body composition and myosteatosis on long-term graft and patient survival following OLT.

METHODS

Clinical data from 225 consecutive OLT recipients from a prospective database were retrospectively analysed (May 2010 to December 2017). Computed tomography-based lumbar skeletal muscle index (SMI) (muscle mass) and mean skeletal muscle radiation attenuation (SM-RA) (myosteatosis) were calculated using a segmentation tool (3D Slicer). Patients with low skeletal muscle mass (low SMI) and myosteatosis (low SM-RA) were identified using predefined and validated cut-off values.

RESULTS

The mean donor and recipient age was 55 ± 16 and 54 ± 12 years, respectively. Some 67% of the recipients were male. The probability of graft and patient survival was significantly lower in patients with myosteatosis compared with patients with higher SM-RA values (P = 0.011 and P = 0.001, respectively). Low skeletal muscle mass alone was not associated with graft and patient survival (P = 0.273 and P = 0.278, respectively). Dividing the cohort into quartiles, based on the values of SMI and SM-RA, resulted in significant differences in patient but not in graft survival (P = 0.011). Even though multivariable analysis identified low SM-RA as an important prognostic marker (hazard ratio: 2.260, 95% confidence interval: 1.177-4.340, P = 0.014), myosteatosis lost its significance when early mortality (90 days) was excluded from the final multivariable model. Patients with myosteatosis showed significantly higher all-cause mortality and in particular higher rates of deaths due to respiratory and septic complication (P = 0.002, P = 0.022, and P = 0.049, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative myosteatosis may be an important prognostic marker in patients undergoing deceased donor liver transplantation. The prognostic value of myosteatosis seems to be particularly important in the early post-operative phase. Validation in prospective clinical trials is warranted.

Short- and Long-Term Outcomes of Different Reperfusion Sequences in Liver Transplantation

Background

Although most centers perform primary portal vein reperfusion (PV) in orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) for historical reasons, there is so far no sound evidence as to whether this technique is superior. The present study evaluated the long-term outcome of 3 different reperfusion sequences: PV vs primary arterial (A) vs simultaneous reperfusion (SIM).

Material/Methods

All patients at our center who underwent OLT (who received a primary, whole-organ liver graft) from 2006 to 2007 were evaluated for analysis.

Results

A total of 61 patients were found eligible (PV: 25, A: 22, SIM: 14). Twenty-one patients (35%) were still alive after the follow-up period of 12 years. Despite poorer starting conditions such as higher recipient age (59 y (SIM) vs 55 y (A) vs 50 y (PV), P=0.01) and donor age (56 y (SIM) vs 51 y (PV) vs 50 y (A), n.s.), higher MELD scores (22 vs 19 (PV) vs 17 (A), n.s.), as well as a higher number of marginal donor organs (79% (SIM) vs 36% (A/PV), P=0.02), SIM-recipients demonstrated superior outcomes. Overall survival was 8.1 y (SIM), 4.8 y (PV), and 5.9 y (A, n.s.)). None of the SIM-recipients underwent re-transplantation, while the rate was 32% in the PV-group. The 8.1 y graft survival in SIM-recipients was significantly longer than in the other 2 groups, which were 3.3 y (PV) and 5.5 y (A, P=0.013).

Conclusions

Although SIM-reperfused recipients were the oldest and received grafts of inferior quality, these recipients showed superior results in terms of overall patient and graft survival. Multicentric randomized controlled trials with larger study populations are required to confirm this finding.

Longterm Survival After Liver Transplantation for Autoimmune Hepatitis: Results From the European Liver Transplant Registry

The aim of this study was to analyze longterm patient and graft survival after liver transplantation for autoimmune hepatitis (AIH-LT) from the prospective multicenter European Liver Transplant Registry. Patient and liver graft survival between 1998 and 2017 were analyzed. Patients after AIH-LT (n = 2515) were compared with patients receiving LT for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC-LT; n = 3733), primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC-LT; n = 5155), and alcohol-related cirrhosis (AC-LT; n = 19,567). After AIH-LT, patient survival was 79.4%, 70.8%, and 60.3% and graft survival was 73.2%, 63.4%, and 50.9% after 5, 10, and 15 years of follow-up. Overall patient survival was similar to patients after AC-LT (P = 0.44), but worse than after PBC-LT (hazard ratio [HR], 1.48; P < 0.001) and PSC-LT (HR, 1.19; P = 0.002). AIH-LT patients were at increased risk for death (HR, 1.37-1.84; P < 0.001) and graft loss (HR, 1.35-1.80; P < 0.001) from infections compared with all other groups and had a particularly increased risk for lethal fungal infections (HR, 3.38-4.20; P ≤ 0.004). Excluding patients who died within 90 days after LT, risk of death after AIH-LT was superior compared with AC-LT (HR, 0.84; P = 0.004), worse compared with PBC-LT (HR, 1.38; P < 0.001) and similar compared with PSC-LT (P = 0.93). Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) patients with living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) showed reduced survival compared with patients receiving donation after brain death (HR, 1.96; P < 0.001). In AIH-LT patients, overall survival is inferior to PBC-LT and PSC-LT. The high risk of death after AIH-LT is caused mainly by early fatal infections, including fungal infections. Patients with LDLT for AIH show reduced survival.

Myosteatosis to predict inferior perioperative outcome in patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation

Muscle wasting and alterations of body composition are linked to clinical outcomes in numerous medical conditions. The role of myosteatosis in posttransplant outcomes remains to be determined. Here we investigated skeletal muscle mass and myosteatosis as prognostic factors in patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). The data of 225 consecutive OLT recipients from a prospective database were retrospectively analyzed (May 2010-December 2017). Computed tomography-based skeletal-muscle-index (muscle mass), visceral-fat-area (visceral adiposity), and mean skeletal-muscle-radiation-attenuation (myosteatosis) were calculated using a segmentation tool. Cut-off values of myosteatosis resulted in a good stratification of patients into low- and high-risk groups in terms of morbidity (Clavien-Dindo ≥3b). Patients with myosteatosis had significantly higher complication rates (90-day Comprehensive Complication Index 68 ± 32 vs 44 ± 30, P < .001) and also displayed significantly longer intensive care (18 ± 25 vs 11 ± 21 days, P < .001) and hospital stay (56 ± 55 vs 33 ± 24 days, P < .001). Estimated costs were 44% higher compared to patients without myosteatosis. Multivariable analysis identified myosteatosis as an independent prognostic factor for major morbidity (odds ratio: 2.772, confidence interval: 1.516-5.066, P = .001). Adding myosteatosis to the well-established Balance-of-Risk-(BAR) score resulted in an increased prognostic value compared to the original BAR score. Myosteatosis may be a useful parameter to predict perioperative outcome in patients undergoing OLT, supporting the role of muscle quality (myosteatosis) over quantity (muscle mass) in this setting.

Loco-regional hepatocellular carcinoma treatment services as a bridge to liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation remains the main curative treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. In the Eurotransplant area Milan criteria are used to assign priority extra points (exceptional MELD, exMELD) for patients on the waiting list. To prevent patients from tumor progression, loco-regional (neoadjuvant) treatment (LRT) is used. For patients unlikely to timely receive an organ via primary allocation, "extended critera donor (ECD) organs" are used. The present study aimed to investigate the survival after LT with a strategy of minimizing waiting list dropouts by using LRT for bridging and transplanting ECD organs if possible and necessary.

METHODS

Between October 2010 and May 2015, 50 liver transplants for HCC were included in this retrospective study. Of those, 42 (84%) met the Milan criteria according to the preoperative radiological examination. Forty-one patients (82%) received LRT. The waiting time was analyzed according to LRT. Kaplan-Meier curves with log-rank statistics were used for survival analyses.

RESULTS

One- and five-year overall survival within Milan criteria was 94.3% and 83.7% compared with 91.7% and 67.9% beyond Milan criteria, though statistical significance was not reached (P = 0.487). LRT had no impact on overall survival (P = 0.629). Median waiting time was shorter if no LRT was performed (4.6 months vs. 1.5 months, P = 0.006) and there were no cases of waiting list dropouts. Using ECD organs had no impact on overall survival (P = 0.663).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with an expected waiting time to transplantation of >6 months could be successfully treated with LRT as a bridge to transplant. Overall and disease-free survival for patients within and beyond Milan criteria was comparable and the use of ECD organs in this cohort of HCC patients proved to be a safe option.

Graft Risk Index After Liver Transplant: Internal and External Validation of a New Spanish Indicator

OBJECTIVES

Scarcity of liver grafts has led to the use of marginal donors, consequently increasing the number of complications posttransplant. To prevent this situation, several indicators have been developed. However, important differences remain among countries. Here, we compared an early-risk liver transplant indicator based on the Spanish Liver Transplant Registry, called the Graft Risk Index, versus the US donor risk index and the Eurotransplant donor risk index.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The new indicator was based on prospectively collected data from 600 adult liver transplants performed in our center. We considered 2 events to compare the indexes: graft survival and rejection-free graft survival, with Cox proportional regression for analyses. Power to predict graft survival was evaluated by calculating the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve.

RESULTS

We found no differences between the US and Eurotransplant donor risk indexes in prediction of patients with and without early graft failure. With regard to early survival, only the Graft Risk Index allowed better survival discrimination, in which survival progressively decreased with values ≥ 3 (with probability of graft survival at 1 month of 68%; 95% confidence interval, 46.2-82.5). This increase in risk was significant compared with the standard group (hazard ratio of 10.15; 95% confidence interval, C 3.91- 26.32; P < .001). We calculated powers of prediction of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.62), 0.54 (95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.65), and 0.69 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.77) for donor risk index, Eurotransplant donor risk index, and early Graft Risk Index, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither the US donor risk index nor the Eurotransplant donor risk index was valid for our Spanish liver donation and transplant program. Therefore, an indicator to predict posttransplant graft survival that is adapted to our environment is necessary. This national Graft Risk Index can be a useful tool to optimize donor-recipient matching.

Quantifying the Effect of Transplanting Older Donor Livers Into Younger Recipients: The Need for Donor-recipient Age Matching

BACKGROUND

Increasing recipient and donor age are independently associated with survival after liver transplantation (LT). Whether donor age differentially impacts post-LT outcomes based on recipient age is unknown.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study using Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data. All adult deceased-donor, single organ, primary LTs from 2002 to 2015 were included. Donor and recipient age were categorized as younger than 40 years, 40 to 59 years, and 60 years or older. Mixed-effects survival analysis evaluated the risk of graft failure and death according to the interaction of donor and recipient age categories.

RESULTS

Of 63 628 LTs, 6.6% were in recipients younger than 40 years, of which 51.4% used an age-matched donor younger than 40 years. There was a significant among-center variability unrelated to United Network for Organ Sharing region in the use of older organs in young recipients, ranging from 0% to 25% or greater (overall center median, 9.7%; interquartile range, 5.4-16.5%). There was a significant interaction between donor and recipient age (P < 0.05) such that the impact of older donor age was more pronounced in younger recipients. Transplanting livers from donors aged 40 to 59 years and 60 years or older was associated with worse graft survival in recipients younger than 40 years, but there was no difference based on donor age in recipients 60 years or older.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a differential impact of using older donors in younger recipients than that in older recipients. Given their longer expected post-LT survival and the ethical imperative to maximize utilization of the scarce resource of transplantable livers, efforts should be made to allocate the highest-quality organs to those most likely to derive lasting benefit.

Potential value and limitations of different clinical scoring systems in the assessment of short- and long-term outcome following orthotopic liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

In an attempt to further improve liver allograft utilization and outcome in orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), a variety of clinical scoring systems have been developed. Here we aimed to comparatively investigate the association of the Balance-of-Risk (BAR), Survival-Outcomes-Following-Liver-Transplant (SOFT), Preallocation-Survival-Outcomes-Following-Liver-Transplant (pSOFT), Donor-Risk-Index (DRI), and the Eurotransplant-Donor-Risk-Index (ET-DRI) scores with short- and long-term outcome following OLT.

METHODS

We included 338 consecutive patients, who underwent OLT in our institution between May 2010 and November 2017. For each prognostic model, the optimal cutoff values were determined with the help of the Youden-index and their diagnostic accuracy for 90-day post OLT-mortality and major postoperative complications was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Patient- and graft survival were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. Morbidity was assessed using the Clavien-Dindo classification and the Comprehensive-Complication-Index.

RESULTS

BAR, SOFT, and pSOFT performed well above the conventional AUROC-threshold of 0.70 with good prediction of early mortality. Only BAR showed AUC>0.70 for both mortality and major morbidity. With the cutoffs of 14, 31, and 22 respectively for BAR, SOFT, and pSOFT, subgroup analysis showed significant differences (p<0.001) in morbidity and mortality, length of intensive care- and hospital-stay and early allograft dysfunction rates. Five-years patient survival was inferior in the high BAR, pSOFT, and SOFT groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Out of all scores tested, the BAR-score had the best value in predicting both 90-day morbidity and mortality after OLT showing the highest AUCs. The pSOFT and SOFT scores demonstrated an acceptable accuracy in predicting 90-day morbidity and mortality. The used BAR, SOFT, and pSOFT cutoffs allowed the identification of patients at risk in terms of five-year patient survival. The DRI and ET-DRI scores have failed to predict recipient outcomes in the present setting.

Donor Shortage in Germany: Impact on Short- and Long-Term Results in Liver Transplantation

With slightly more than 10 donors per million inhabitants, Germany belongs to the underdeveloped countries in Europe with regard to organ donation. Organ shortage is supposed to promote the usage of organs which are declined in case of less pronounced scarcity. This may result in deteriorated graft and patient survival. In the light of this situation, data on the centers' procedures and outcome of liver transplantation in Germany is presented based upon reports of Eurotransplant, the German Institutions for Quality Assessment, and the Deutsche Stiftung Organtransplantation. Surprisingly, along with an increasing organ scarcity, the outcome during waiting time and after transplantation has been improved. The 1- and 3-year patient survival improved by 7 and 9%, respectively. Reasons for this unexpected development are discussed.

[Frontiers in liver transplantation in indication and techniques]

BACKGROUND

The frontiers in liver transplantation are intrinsically expansions of indications, e.g. hepatocellular carcinoma and (perihilar) cholangiocarcinoma, recipients with more severe concomitant diagnoses or "soft" contraindications and technically demanding reconstruction procedures of vascular structures (for portal vein thrombosis or aorto-hepatic conduits). In addition, an extension of the donor pool with suboptimal donor organs (old donors and steatotic livers) is of interest.

METHODS

This article presents the current situation based on personal experiences in daily practice and an appropriate literature review.

RESULTS

A significant reduction of 1‑year patient survival has been reported in Germany. The percentage of so-called marginal donor organs is inversely proportional to the very low donation rate and parallel to the waiting list mortality. Simultaneously, the proportion of inpatients with multiple organ failure is rising.

CONCLUSION

Results-oriented and controlled liver transplantation currently prohibits making inroads into the previously intrinsic frontiers. As long as the current circumstances do not change, a shift in the intrinsic frontiers of that which is surgically feasible will not be possible. The current situation forces the transplant surgeon to apply a more restrictive indications and organ acceptance policy. With this approach we can try to regain the previously excellent short- and long-term results of a 1‑year survival of 90% and a 20-year survival of 50%.

Prevalence of Steatosis Hepatis in the Eurotransplant Region: Impact on Graft Acceptance Rates

Due to the shortage of liver allografts and the rising prevalence of fatty liver disease in the general population, steatotic liver grafts are considered for transplantation. This condition is an important risk factor for the outcome after transplantation. We here analyze the characteristics of the donor pool offered to the Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin from 2010 to 2016 with respect to liver allograft nonacceptance and steatosis hepatis. Of the 2653 organs offered to our center, 19.9% (n=527) were accepted for transplantation, 58.8% (n=1561) were allocated to other centers, and 21.3% (n = 565) were eventually discarded from transplantation. In parallel to an increase of the incidence of steatosis hepatis in the donor pool from 20% in 2010 to 30% in 2016, the acceptance rates for steatotic organs increased in our center from 22.3% to 51.5% in 2016 (p < 0.001), with the majority (86.9%; p > 0.001) having less than 30% macrovesicular steatosis hepatis. However, by 2016, the number of canceled transplantations due to higher grades of steatosis hepatis had significantly increased from 14.7% (n = 15) to 63.6% (42; p < 0.001). The rising prevalence of steatosis hepatis in the donor pool has led to higher acceptance rates of steatotic allografts. Nonetheless, steatosis hepatis remains a predominant phenomenon in discarded organs necessitating future concepts such as organ reconditioning to increase graft utilization.

Graft survival after liver transplantation: an approach to a new Spanish risk index

INTRODUCTION

several indicators are available to assess liver graft survival, including the American DRI and the European ET-DRI. However, there are significant differences between transplant programs of different countries, and the previously mentioned indicators might be not valid in our setting.

OBJECTIVES

the aim of the study was to describe a new national liver graft risk indicator based on the results obtained from the Registro Español de Trasplante Hepático (RETH) and to validate the DRI and ET-DRI indicators.

METHODS

the RETH includes a Cox analysis of factors associated with graft survival; the graft risk index (GRI) indicator was defined based on these results. The variables considered are dependent upon the donation conditions (age, cause of death, blood compatibility and cold ischemia time) and the transplant recipient (age, underlying disease, hepatitis C virus, transplant number, UNOS status and surgical technique). A logistic regression curve was obtained and graft survival curves were calculated by stratification. Precision was assessed using the ROC analysis.

RESULTS

a GRI of 1 represents a probability of graft loss of 23.25%; each point increase in the GRI score multiplies this probability by 1.33. The best discrimination of GRI was obtained by stratification. The DRI ROC area was 0.54 (95% CI, 0.50-0.59) and the ET-DRI ROC area was 0.56 (95% CI, 0.51-0.61), compared to 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65-0.73) (p < 0.0001) for the GRI.

CONCLUSIONS

both the DRI and ET-DRI do not seem to be useful in our setting. Hence a national indicator is more desirable. The GRI requires a national study in order to further streamline and assess this indicator.