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Yamaguchi D, Shimizu R, Kubota R. Development of a SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamic model for patients with COVID-19 based on the amount of viral RNA and viral titer. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2024. [PMID: 38783551 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.13164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2023] [Revised: 04/17/2024] [Accepted: 05/03/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
The target-cell limited model, which is one of the mathematical modeling approaches providing a quantitative understanding of viral dynamics, has been applied to describe viral RNA profiles of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in previous studies. However, these models have been developed mainly using patient data from the early phase of the pandemic. Furthermore, no reports focused on the profiles of the viral titer. In this study, the dynamics of both viral RNA and viral titer were characterized using data reflecting the current clinical situation in which the Omicron variant has become epidemic and vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 have become available. Consecutive data for 5212 viral RNA levels and 5216 viral titers were obtained from 720 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a phase II/III study for ensitrelvir. Our model assumed that productively infected cells would produce only infectious viruses, which could be transformed into non-infectious viruses, and has been used to describe the dynamics of both viral RNA levels and viral titer. The time from infection to symptom onset (tinf) of unvaccinated patients was estimated to be 3.0 days, which was shorter than that of the vaccinated patients. The immune-related parameter as a power function for the vaccinated patients was 1.1 times stronger than that for the unvaccinated patients. Our model allows the prediction of the viral dynamics in patients with COVID-19 from the time of infection to symptom onset. Vaccination status was identified as a factor influencing tinf and the immune function.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daichi Yamaguchi
- Clinical Pharmacology & Pharmacokinetics, Shionogi & Co., Ltd., Osaka, Japan
| | - Ryosuke Shimizu
- Clinical Pharmacology & Pharmacokinetics, Shionogi & Co., Ltd., Osaka, Japan
| | - Ryuji Kubota
- Clinical Pharmacology & Pharmacokinetics, Shionogi & Co., Ltd., Osaka, Japan
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Korosec CS, Wahl LM, Heffernan JM. Within-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2: how often are de novo mutations transmitted from symptomatic infections? Virus Evol 2024; 10:veae006. [PMID: 38425472 PMCID: PMC10904108 DOI: 10.1093/ve/veae006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2023] [Revised: 12/20/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Despite a relatively low mutation rate, the large number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections has allowed for substantial genetic change, leading to a multitude of emerging variants. Using a recently determined mutation rate (per site replication), as well as within-host parameter estimates for symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, we apply a stochastic transmission-bottleneck model to describe the survival probability of de novo SARS-CoV-2 mutations as a function of bottleneck size and selection coefficient. For narrow bottlenecks, we find that mutations affecting per-target-cell attachment rate (with phenotypes associated with fusogenicity and ACE2 binding) have similar transmission probabilities to mutations affecting viral load clearance (with phenotypes associated with humoral evasion). We further find that mutations affecting the eclipse rate (with phenotypes associated with reorganization of cellular metabolic processes and synthesis of viral budding precursor material) are highly favoured relative to all other traits examined. We find that mutations leading to reduced removal rates of infected cells (with phenotypes associated with innate immune evasion) have limited transmission advantage relative to mutations leading to humoral evasion. Predicted transmission probabilities, however, for mutations affecting innate immune evasion are more consistent with the range of clinically estimated household transmission probabilities for de novo mutations. This result suggests that although mutations affecting humoral evasion are more easily transmitted when they occur, mutations affecting innate immune evasion may occur more readily. We examine our predictions in the context of a number of previously characterized mutations in circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. Our work offers both a null model for SARS-CoV-2 mutation rates and predicts which aspects of viral life history are most likely to successfully evolve, despite low mutation rates and repeated transmission bottlenecks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chapin S Korosec
- Modelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
- Centre for Disease Modelling, Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Lindi M Wahl
- Applied Mathematics, Western University, 1151 Richmond St, London, ON N6A 5B7, Canada
| | - Jane M Heffernan
- Modelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
- Centre for Disease Modelling, Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
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Wong CKH, Lau KTK, Au ICH, Lau EHY, Poon LLM, Hung IFN, Cowling BJ, Leung GM. Viral burden rebound in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 receiving oral antivirals in Hong Kong: a population-wide retrospective cohort study. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2023; 23:683-695. [PMID: 36796397 PMCID: PMC9949892 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00873-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2022] [Revised: 11/23/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 02/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Viral rebound after nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment has implications for the clinical management and isolation of patients with COVID-19. We evaluated an unselected, population-wide cohort to identify the incidence of viral burden rebound and associated risk factors and clinical outcomes. METHODS We did a retrospective cohort study of hospitalised patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China, for an observation period from Feb 26 to July 3, 2022 (during the omicron BA.2.2 variant wave). Adult patients (age ≥18 years) admitted 3 days before or after a positive COVID-19 test were selected from medical records held by the Hospital Authority of Hong Kong. We included patients with non-oxygen-dependent COVID-19 at baseline receiving either molnupiravir (800 mg twice a day for 5 days), nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (nirmatrelvir 300 mg with ritonavir 100 mg twice a day for 5 days), or no oral antiviral treatment (control group). Viral burden rebound was defined as a reduction in cycle threshold (Ct) value (≥3) on quantitative RT-PCR test between two consecutive measurements, with such decrease sustained in an immediately subsequent Ct measurement (for those patients with ≥3 Ct measurements). Logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors for viral burden rebound, and to assess associations between viral burden rebound and a composite clinical outcome of mortality, intensive care unit admission, and invasive mechanical ventilation initiation, stratified by treatment group. FINDINGS We included 4592 hospitalised patients with non-oxygen-dependent COVID-19 (1998 [43·5%] women and 2594 [56·5%] men). During the omicron BA.2.2 wave, viral burden rebound occurred in 16 of 242 patients (6·6% [95% CI 4·1-10·5]) receiving nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, 27 of 563 (4·8% [3·3-6·9]) receiving molnupiravir, and 170 of 3787 (4·5% [3·9-5·2]) in the control group. The incidence of viral burden rebound did not differ significantly across the three groups. Immunocompromised status was associated with increased odds of viral burden rebound, regardless of antiviral treatment (nirmatrelvir-ritonavir: odds ratio [OR] 7·37 [95% CI 2·56-21·26], p=0·0002; molnupiravir: 3·05 [1·28-7·25], p=0·012; control: 2·21 [1·50-3·27], p<0·0001). Among patients receiving nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, the odds of viral burden rebound were higher in those aged 18-65 years (vs >65 years; 3·09 [1·00-9·53], p=0·050), those with high comorbidity burden (score >6 on the Charlson Comorbidity Index; 6·02 [2·09-17·38], p=0·0009), and those concomitantly taking corticosteroids (7·51 [1·67-33·82], p=0·0086); whereas the odds were lower in those who were not fully vaccinated (0·16 [0·04-0·67], p=0·012). In patients receiving molnupiravir, those aged 18-65 years (2·68 [1·09-6·58], p=0·032) or on concomitant corticosteroids (3·11 [1·23-7·82], p=0·016) had increased odds of viral burden rebound. We found no association between viral burden rebound and occurrence of the composite clinical outcome from day 5 of follow-up (nirmatrelvir-ritonavir: adjusted OR 1·90 [0·48-7·59], p=0·36; molnupiravir: 1·05 [0·39-2·84], p=0·92; control: 1·27 [0·89-1·80], p=0·18). INTERPRETATION Viral burden rebound rates are similar between patients with antiviral treatment and those without. Importantly, viral burden rebound was not associated with adverse clinical outcomes. FUNDING Health and Medical Research Fund, Health Bureau, The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China. TRANSLATION For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos K H Wong
- Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, School of Clinical Medicine, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Shatin, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
| | - Kristy T K Lau
- Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Ivan C H Au
- Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Eric H Y Lau
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Shatin, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Leo L M Poon
- School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; HKU-Pasteur Research Pole, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Centre for Immunology and Infection, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Shatin, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Ivan F N Hung
- Infectious Diseases Division, Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Benjamin J Cowling
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Shatin, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Gabriel M Leung
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Shatin, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
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Rao R, Musante CJ, Allen R. A quantitative systems pharmacology model of the pathophysiology and treatment of COVID-19 predicts optimal timing of pharmacological interventions. NPJ Syst Biol Appl 2023; 9:13. [PMID: 37059734 PMCID: PMC10102696 DOI: 10.1038/s41540-023-00269-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 02/09/2023] [Indexed: 04/16/2023] Open
Abstract
A quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model of the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection can streamline and accelerate the development of novel medicines to treat COVID-19. Simulation of clinical trials allows in silico exploration of the uncertainties of clinical trial design and can rapidly inform their protocols. We previously published a preliminary model of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. To further our understanding of COVID-19 and treatment, we significantly updated the model by matching a curated dataset spanning viral load and immune responses in plasma and lung. We identified a population of parameter sets to generate heterogeneity in pathophysiology and treatment and tested this model against published reports from interventional SARS-CoV-2 targeting mAb and antiviral trials. Upon generation and selection of a virtual population, we match both the placebo and treated responses in viral load in these trials. We extended the model to predict the rate of hospitalization or death within a population. Via comparison of the in silico predictions with clinical data, we hypothesize that the immune response to virus is log-linear over a wide range of viral load. To validate this approach, we show the model matches a published subgroup analysis, sorted by baseline viral load, of patients treated with neutralizing Abs. By simulating intervention at different time points post infection, the model predicts efficacy is not sensitive to interventions within five days of symptom onset, but efficacy is dramatically reduced if more than five days pass post symptom onset prior to treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rohit Rao
- Early Clinical Development, Pfizer Worldwide Research, Development and Medical, Cambridge, MA, USA.
| | - Cynthia J Musante
- Early Clinical Development, Pfizer Worldwide Research, Development and Medical, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Richard Allen
- Early Clinical Development, Pfizer Worldwide Research, Development and Medical, Cambridge, MA, USA
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Sanche S, Cassidy T, Chu P, Perelson AS, Ribeiro RM, Ke R. A simple model of COVID-19 explains disease severity and the effect of treatments. Sci Rep 2022; 12:14210. [PMID: 35988008 PMCID: PMC9392071 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-18244-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2021] [Accepted: 08/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Considerable effort has been made to better understand why some people suffer from severe COVID-19 while others remain asymptomatic. This has led to important clinical findings; people with severe COVID-19 generally experience persistently high levels of inflammation, slower viral load decay, display a dysregulated type-I interferon response, have less active natural killer cells and increased levels of neutrophil extracellular traps. How these findings are connected to the pathogenesis of COVID-19 remains unclear. We propose a mathematical model that sheds light on this issue by focusing on cells that trigger inflammation through molecular patterns: infected cells carrying pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) and damaged cells producing damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs). The former signals the presence of pathogens while the latter signals danger such as hypoxia or lack of nutrients. Analyses show that SARS-CoV-2 infections can lead to a self-perpetuating feedback loop between DAMP expressing cells and inflammation, identifying the inability to quickly clear PAMPs and DAMPs as the main contributor to hyperinflammation. The model explains clinical findings and reveal conditions that can increase the likelihood of desired clinical outcome from treatment administration. In particular, the analysis suggest that antivirals need to be administered early during infection to have an impact on disease severity. The simplicity of the model and its high level of consistency with clinical findings motivate its use for the formulation of new treatment strategies.
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Goyal A, Duke ER, Cardozo-Ojeda EF, Schiffer JT. Modeling explains prolonged SARS-CoV-2 nasal shedding relative to lung shedding in remdesivir treated rhesus macaques. iScience 2022; 25:104448. [PMID: 35634576 PMCID: PMC9130309 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104448] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Revised: 04/19/2022] [Accepted: 05/16/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
In clinical trials, remdesivir decreased recovery time in hospitalized patients with SARS- CoV-2 and prevented hospitalization when given early during infection, despite not reducing nasal viral loads. In rhesus macaques, early remdesivir prevented pneumonia and lowered lung viral loads, but viral loads increased in nasal passages after five days. We developed mathematical models to explain these results. Our model raises the hypotheses that: 1) in contrast to nasal passages viral load monotonically decreases in lungs during therapy because of infection-dependent generation of refractory cells, 2) slight reduction in lung viral loads with an imperfect agent may result in a substantial decrease in lung damage, and 3) increases in nasal viral load may occur due to a blunting of peak viral load which decreases the intensity of the innate immune response. We demonstrate that a higher potency drug could lower viral loads in nasal passages and lung.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ashish Goyal
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
| | - Elizabeth R Duke
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.,Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Joshua T Schiffer
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.,Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle.,Clinical Research Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
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