Fire and climatic extremes shape mammal distributions in a fire-prone landscape

Severe fire regimes decrease resilience of ectothermic populations

Understanding populations' responses to environmental change is crucial for mitigating human-induced disturbances. Here, we test hypotheses regarding how three essential components of demographic resilience (resistance, compensation and recovery) co-vary along the distinct life histories of three lizard species exposed to variable, prescribed fire regimes. Using a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we estimate vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) with 14 years of monthly individual-level data and mark-recapture models to parameterize stochastic integral projection models from five sites in Brazilian savannas, each historically subjected to different fire regimes. With these models, we investigate how weather, microclimate and ecophysiological traits of each species influence their vital rates, emergent life history traits and demographic resilience components in varying fire regimes. Overall, weather and microclimate are better predictors of the species' vital rates, rather than their ecophysiological traits. Our findings reveal that severe fire regimes increase populations' resistance but decrease compensation or recovery abilities. Instead, populations have higher compensatory and recovery abilities at intermediate degrees of fire severity. Additionally, we identify generation time and reproductive output as predictors of resilience trends across fire regimes and climate. Our analyses demonstrate that the probability and quantity of monthly reproduction are the proximal drivers of demographic resilience across the three species. Our findings suggest that populations surpass a tipping point in severe fire regimes and achieve an alternative stable state to persist. Thus, higher heterogeneity in fire regimes can increase the reproductive aspects and resilience of different populations and avoid high-severity regimes that homogenize the environment. Despite being more resistant, species with long generation times and low reproductive output take longer to recover and cannot compensate as much as species with faster paces of life. We emphasize how reproductive constraints, such as viviparity and fixed clutch sizes, impact the ability of ectothermic populations to benefit and recover from disturbances, underscoring their relevance in conservation assessments.

How do invasive predators and their native prey respond to prescribed fire?

Fire shapes animal communities by altering resource availability and species interactions, including between predators and prey. In Australia, there is particular concern that two highly damaging invasive predators, the feral cat (Felis catus) and European red fox (Vulpes vulpes), increase their activity in recently burnt areas and exert greater predation pressure on the native prey due to their increased exposure. We tested how prescribed fire occurrence and extent, along with fire history, vegetation, topography, and distance to anthropogenic features (towns and farms), affected the activity (detection frequency) of cats, foxes, and the native mammal community in south-eastern Australia. We used camera traps to quantify mammal activity before and after a prescribed burn and statistically tested how the fire interacted with these habitat variables to affect mammal activity. We found little evidence that the prescribed fire influenced the activity of cats and foxes and no evidence of an effect on kangaroo or small mammal (<800 g) activity. Medium-sized mammals (800-2000 g) were negatively associated with prescribed fire extent, suggesting that prescribed fire has a negative impact on these species in the short term. The lack of a clear activity increase from cats and foxes is likely a positive outcome from a fire management perspective. However, we highlight that their response is likely dependent upon factors like fire size, severity, and prey availability. Future experiments should incorporate GPS-trackers to record fine-scale movements of cats and foxes in temperate ecosystems immediately before and after prescribed fire to best inform management within protected areas.

Modeling mammal response to fire based on species' traits

Fire has shaped ecological communities worldwide for millennia, but impacts of fire on individual species are often poorly understood. We performed a meta-analysis to predict which traits, habitat, or study variables and fire characteristics affect how mammal species respond to fire. We modeled effect sizes of measures of population abundance or occupancy as a function of various combinations of these traits and variables with phylogenetic least squares regression. Nine of 115 modeled species (7.83%) returned statistically significant effect sizes, suggesting most mammals are resilient to fire. The top-ranked model predicted a negative impact of fire on species with lower reproductive rates, regardless of fire type (estimate = -0.68), a positive impact of burrowing in prescribed fires (estimate = 1.46) but not wildfires, and a positive impact of average fire return interval for wildfires (estimate = 0.93) but not prescribed fires. If a species' International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment includes fire as a known or possible threat, the species was predicted to respond negatively to wildfire relative to prescribed fire (estimate = -2.84). These findings provide evidence of experts' abilities to predict whether fire is a threat to a mammal species and the ability of managers to meet the needs of fire-threatened species through prescribed fire. Where empirical data are lacking, our methods provide a basis for predicting mammal responses to fire and thus can guide conservation actions or interventions in species or communities.

Can NDVI identify drought refugia for mammals and birds in mesic landscapes?

Refugia within landscapes are increasingly important as climate change intensifies, yet identifying refugia, and how they respond to climatic perturbations remains understudied. We use Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) developed during extreme drought to identify drought refugia. We then utilise camera trapping to understand the ecological role and importance of these refugia under fluctuating rainfall conditions. Ground foraging mammals and birds were surveyed annually from 2016 to 2019 whereby 171 remote-sensing cameras were deployed in the southern section of the Grampians, Australia. NDVI values were calculated during Australia's millennium drought, allowing the assessment of how NDVI calculated during extreme drought predicts drought refugia and the response of biodiversity to NDVI under rainfall fluctuations. Site occupancy of bird and mammal assemblages were dependent on NDVI, with areas of high NDVI during drought exhibiting characteristics consistent with refugia. Rainfall pulses increased site occupancy at all sites with colonisation probability initially associated with higher NDVI sites. Extinction probabilities were greatest at low NDVI sites when rainfall declined. Within mesic systems, remotely sensed NDVI can identify areas of the landscape that act as drought refugia enabling landscape management to prioritise species conservation within these areas. The protection and persistence of refugia is crucial in ensuring landscapes and their species communities therein are resilient to a range of climate change scenarios.

The recent Asian elephant range expansion in Yunnan, China, is associated with climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes

Recently, the northward movement of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Yunnan, China, has attracted international attention. Climate change or human disturbances have been proposed to be the key drivers, but these hypotheses have not been rigorously tested. In this study, we quantified the relationship between climate change and human impacts on the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in southwest China. We found that the first observation probability of this species in a new place during 1959–2021 had a significant and positive association with change in air temperature and human density, resulting in a movement toward a high-latitude region with a warmer climate and higher human density; however, its association with precipitation was scale-dependent in time: positive or negative during the past 10 or 5 years, respectively. Under the enforced protection policy, human-dominated areas became preferred habitats for elephants. Our results indicate that climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes in the last few decades are significant drivers of the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in Yunnan, China. It is necessary to expand the current protected areas or habitat corridors toward the north or set up new reserves in the north and set up barriers between human settlements and elephant habitats to facilitate elephant movements and minimize human-elephant conflicts under accelerated global change.

Extreme climate event promotes phenological mismatch between sexes in hibernating ground squirrels

Hibernating ground squirrels rely on a short active period for breeding and mass accrual, and are thus vulnerable to extreme climate events that affect key periods in their annual cycle. Here, we document how a heatwave in March 2012 led to a phenological mismatch between sexes in Richardson’s ground squirrels (Urocitellus richardsonii). Females emerged from hibernation and commenced breeding earlier in 2012 relative to average female emergence. Although males had descended testes and pigmented scrota, it appeared that not all males were physiologically prepared to breed since 58.6% of males had non-motile sperm when breeding commenced. Body condition, relative testes size, and the relative size of accessory glands were significant predictors of sperm motility. Males with non-motile sperm had smaller accessory glands than males with motile sperm. There was no decrease in the number of juveniles that emerged in 2012 or female yearlings recruited in 2013, nor did juveniles emerge later than other years. The impact of this heatwave on male ground squirrels emphasizes the importance of assessing the consequences of climate change on the breeding success of hibernating species in both sexes, since the different sensitivity to external cues for emergence led to a mismatch in timing under this event.

Factors influencing distributional shifts and abundance at the range core of a climate-sensitive mammal

Species are frequently responding to contemporary climate change by shifting to higher elevations and poleward to track suitable climate space. However, depending on local conditions and species' sensitivity, the nature of these shifts can be highly variable and difficult to predict. Here, we examine how the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a philopatric, montane lagomorph, responds to climatic gradients at three spatial scales. Using mixed-effects modeling in an information-theoretic approach, we evaluated a priori model suites regarding predictors of site occupancy, relative abundance, and elevational-range retraction across 760 talus patches, nested within 64 watersheds across the Northern Rocky Mountains of North America, during 2017-2020. The top environmental predictors differed across these response metrics. Warmer temperatures in summer and winter were associated with lower occupancy, lower relative abundances, and greater elevational retraction across watersheds. Occupancy was also strongly influenced by habitat patch size, but only when combined with climate metrics such as actual evapotranspiration. Using a second analytical approach, acute heat stress and summer precipitation best explained retraction residuals (i.e., the relative extent of retraction given the original elevational range of occupancy). Despite the study domain occurring near the species' geographic-range center, where populations might have higher abundances and be at lower risk of climate-related stress, 33.9% of patches showed evidence of recent extirpations. Pika-extirpated sites averaged 1.44℃ warmer in summer than did occupied sites. Additionally, the minimum elevation of pika occupancy has retracted upslope in 69% of watersheds (mean: 281 m). Our results emphasize the nuance associated with evaluating species' range dynamics in response to climate gradients, variability, and temperature exceedances, especially in regions where species occupy gradients of conditions that may constitute multiple range edges. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of evaluating diverse drivers across response metrics to improve the predictive accuracy of widely used, correlative models.

Managing ecosystems in a sea of uncertainty: invasive species management and assisted colonizations

Managing ecosystems in the face of complex species interactions, and the associated uncertainty, presents a considerable ecological challenge. Altering those interactions via actions such as invasive species management or conservation translocations can result in unintended consequences, supporting the need to be able to make more informed decisions in the face of this uncertainty. We demonstrate the utility of ecosystem models to reduce uncertainty and inform future ecosystem management. We use Phillip Island, Australia, as a case study to investigate the impacts of two invasive species management options and consider whether a critically endangered mammal is likely to establish a population in the presence of invasive species. Qualitative models are used to determine the effects of apex predator removal (feral cats) and invasive prey removal (rabbits, rats, and mice). We extend this approach using Ensemble Ecosystem Models to consider how suppression, rather than eradication influences the species community; and consider whether an introduction of the critically endangered eastern barred bandicoot is likely to be successful in the presence of invasive species. Our analysis revealed the potential for unintended outcomes associated with feral cat control operations, with rats and rabbits expected to increase in abundance. A strategy based on managing prey species appeared to have the most ecosystem-wide benefits, with rodent control showing more favorable responses than a rabbit control strategy. Eastern barred bandicoots were predicted to persist under all feral cat control levels (including no control). Managing ecosystems is a complex and imprecise process. However, qualitative modeling and ensemble ecosystem modeling address uncertainty and are capable of improving and optimizing management practices. Our analysis shows that the best conservation outcomes may not always be associated with the top-down control of apex predators, and land managers should think more broadly in relation to managing bottom-up processes as well. Challenges faced in continuing to conserve biodiversity mean new, bolder, conservation actions are needed. We suggest that endangered species are capable of surviving in the presence of feral cats, potentially opening the door for more conservation translocations.

Patterns of decline of small mammal assemblages in vegetation communities of coastal south-east Australia: identification of habitat refuges

Since European settlement Australian native mammals have experienced significant extinctions and severe declines in the range and abundance of populations. Longitudinal studies are required to identify declines and activate timely management. Population studies of native small mammal communities were conducted across the eastern Otway Ranges during 1975–2007; however, their subsequent status was unknown. We aimed to: compare the current occurrence and abundance of species and communities (2013–18) to those in previous decades across major vegetation communities (heathy woodland, low forest, sand heathland, headland scrub, coastal dunes and estuarine wetland), and identify change characteristics and management priorities. Live trapping was employed to assess mammals at 30 sites across seven vegetation communities. In total, 67% of sites exhibited large to severe decreases in abundance and only 3% of sites had more than four species compared to 27% in earlier decades. Declines occurred following wildfire and drought, with drivers likely to be multifactorial. While regional declines were significant, higher mammal abundance (two- to six-fold) and native species richness were recorded at coastal dune sites, indicating that this community provides important mammal refuges. Identification of refuges across the landscape and their protection from inappropriate fire and predators should be management priorities.

Time since fire is an over-simplified measure of habitat suitability for the New Holland mouse

Fire has shaped much of the Australian landscape, and alterations to natural or historical fire regimes are implicated in the decline of many native mammal species. Time since fire (TSF) is a common metric used to understand vegetation and faunal responses to fire but is unlikely to capture the complexity of successional changes following fire. The New Holland mouse (Pseudomys novaehollandiae), a threatened and declining rodent species native to southeastern Australia, is traditionally considered an early post-fire successional species. Here, we use a 48-year dataset to test whether this posited association with early TSF is upheld, and whether the species’ occurrence and abundance are governed by TSF. We find support for a minimal influence of TSF on the species’ occurrence, and that while abundance of P. novaehollandiae is partly explained by TSF, considerable uncertainty and variation among fire events and locations limit the usefulness of TSF in informing conservation management strategies. We suggest that it is not helpful to consider the species as early successional and that fire planning for P. novaehollandiae conservation is best considered at a local scale. Additionally, we provide guidelines for maximizing individual survival and persistence during and after planned burns.

Testing the assumptions of the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis for termites in semi-arid Australia

Fire shapes the composition and functioning of ecosystems globally. In many regions, fire is actively managed to create diverse patch mosaics of fire-ages under the assumption that a diversity of post-fire-age classes will provide a greater variety of habitats, thereby enabling species with differing habitat requirements to coexist, and enhancing species diversity (the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis). However, studies provide mixed support for this hypothesis. Here, using termite communities in a semi-arid region of southeast Australia, we test four key assumptions of the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis (i) that fire shapes vegetation structure over sufficient time frames to influence species' occurrence, (ii) that animal species are linked to resources that are themselves shaped by fire and that peak at different times since fire, (iii) that species' probability of occurrence or abundance peaks at varying times since fire and (iv) that providing a diversity of fire-ages increases species diversity at the landscape scale. Termite species and habitat elements were sampled in 100 sites across a range of fire-ages, nested within 20 landscapes chosen to represent a gradient of low to high pyrodiversity. We used regression modelling to explore relationships between termites, habitat and fire. Fire affected two habitat elements (coarse woody debris and the cover of woody vegetation) that were associated with the probability of occurrence of three termite species and overall species richness, thus supporting the first two assumptions of the pyrodiversity hypothesis. However, this did not result in those species or species richness being affected by fire history per se. Consequently, landscapes with a low diversity of fire histories had similar numbers of termite species as landscapes with high pyrodiversity. Our work suggests that encouraging a diversity of fire-ages for enhancing termite species richness in this study region is not necessary.

Survey design for precise fire management conservation targets

Common goals of ecological fire management are to sustain biodiversity and minimize extinction risk. A novel approach to achieving these goals determines the relative proportions of vegetation growth stages (equivalent to successional stages, which are categorical representations of time since fire) that maximize a biodiversity index. The method combines data describing species abundances in each growth stage with numerical optimization to define an optimal growth-stage structure that provides a conservation-based operational target for managers. However, conservation targets derived from growth-stage optimization are likely to depend critically on choices regarding input data. There is growing interest in the use of growth-stage optimization as a basis for fire management, thus understanding of how input data influence the outputs is crucial. Simulated data sets provide a flexible platform for systematically varying aspects of survey design and species inclusions. We used artificial data with known properties, and a case-study data set from southeastern Australia, to examine the influence of (1) survey design (total number of sites and their distribution among growth stages) and (2) species inclusions (total number of species and their level of specialization) on the precision of conservation targets. Based on our findings, we recommend that survey designs for precise estimates would ideally involve at least 80 sites, and include at least 80 species. Greater numbers of sites and species will yield increasingly reliable results, but fewer might be sufficient in some circumstances. An even distribution of sites among growth stages was less important than the total number of sites, and omission of species is unlikely to have a major influence on results as long as several species specialize on each growth stage. We highlight the importance of examining the responses of individual species to growth stage before feeding survey data into the growth-stage optimization black box, and advocate use of a resampling procedure to determine the precision of results. Collectively, our findings form a reproducible guide to designing ecological surveys that yield precise conservation targets through growth-stage optimization, and ultimately help sustain biodiversity in fire-prone systems.

Ecology of the rare but irruptive Pilliga mouse, Pseudomys pilligaensis. V. Relationships with yellow-footed antechinus, Antechinus flavipes, and house mouse, Mus domesticus

We investigated relationships between Pseudomys pilligaensis and other small mammal species in terms of their population fluctuations and habitat selection during a population irruption of P. pilligaensis. Antechinus flavipes showed only seasonal fluctuations in numbers, suggesting that it did not respond to the same environmental factors as P. pilligaensis. A. flavipes consistently selected areas with less sand in all phases of the irruption of P. pilligaensis, resulting in a clear separation from P. pilligaensis except in the Peak phase of the latter’s irruption. Numbers of Mus domesticus fluctuated similarly to P. pilligaensis until the latter’s irruption peak in April 2000. However, M. domesticus disappeared after July 2000 from our sites. M. domesticus seemed to occupy the area only temporarily when seeds were abundant. In the Increase and Peak phases of the irruption of P. pilligaensis, M. domesticus occupied core habitats characterised by more sand and shrub, and less litter, while in the Low phase P. pilligaensis occupied the core habitats that M. domesticus used to occupy. This may suggest that M. domesticus was excluded from core habitats through competition with P. pilligaensis in the Low phase of the latter’s irruption. However, since increased anthropogenic disturbance might create conditions that M. domesticus prefers, it is important to assess carefully any impacts of such disturbance on P. pilligaensis.