Variable intraspecific response to climate change in a medicinally important African tree species, Vachellia sieberiana (DC.) (paperbark thorn)

Climate change is predicted to disproportionately impact sub-Saharan Africa, with potential devastating consequences on plant populations. Climate change may, however, impact intraspecific taxa differently. The aim of the study was to determine the current distribution and impact of climate change on three varieties of Vachellia sieberiana, that is, var. sieberiana, var. villosa and var. woodii. Ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) were built in "biomod2" using 66, 45, and 137 occurrence records for var. sieberiana, var. villosa, and var. woodii, respectively. The ensemble SDMs were projected to 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 under three general circulation models (GCMs) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The three GCMs were the Canadian Earth System Model version 5, the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model version 6A Low Resolution, and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6. The suitable habitat of var. sieberiana predominantly occurs in the Sudanian and Zambezian phytochoria while that of var. villosa largely occurs in the Sudanian phytochorion. The suitable habitat of var. woodii mainly occurs in the Zambezian phyotochorion. There is coexistence of var. villosa and var. sieberiana in the Sudanian phytochorion while var. sieberiana and var. woodii coexist in the Zambezian phytochorion. Under SSP2-4.5 in 2041-2060 and averaged across the three GCMs, the suitable habitat expanded by 33.8% and 119.7% for var. sieberiana and var. villosa, respectively. In contrast, the suitable habitat of var. woodii contracted by -8.4%. Similar trends were observed in 2041-2060 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (38.6%), var. villosa (139.0%), and var. woodii (-10.4%)], in 2081-2100 under SSP2-4.5 [var. sieberiana (4.6%), var. villosa (153.4%), and var. woodii (-14.4%)], and in 2081-2100 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (49.3%), var. villosa (233.4%), and var. woodii (-30.7%)]. Different responses to climate change call for unique management and conservation decisions for the varieties.

Adaptive potential of maritime pine under contrasting environments

BACKGROUND

Predicting the adaptability of forest tree populations under future climates requires a better knowledge of both the adaptive significance and evolvability of measurable key traits. Phenotypic plasticity, standing genetic variation and degree of phenotypic integration shape the actual and future population genetic structure, but empirical estimations in forest tree species are still extremely scarce. We analysed 11 maritime pine populations covering the distribution range of the species (119 families and 8 trees/family, ca. 1300 trees) in a common garden experiment planted at two sites with contrasting productivity. We used plant height as a surrogate of fitness and measured five traits (mean and plasticity of carbon isotope discrimination, specific leaf area, needle biomass, Phenology growth index) related to four different strategies (acquisitive economics, photosynthetic organ size, growth allocation and avoidance of water stress).

RESULTS

Estimated values of additive genetic variation would allow adaptation of the populations to future environmental conditions. Overall phenotypic integration and selection gradients were higher at the high productivity site, while phenotypic integration within populations was higher at the low productivity site. Response to selection was related mainly to photosynthetic organ size and drought-avoidance mechanisms rather than to water use efficiency. Phenotypic plasticity of water use efficiency could be maladaptive, resulting from selection for height growth.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to the expectations in a drought tolerant species, our study suggests that variation in traits related to photosynthetic organ size and acquisitive investment of resources drive phenotypic selection across and within maritime pine populations. Both genetic variation and evolvability of key adaptive traits were considerably high, including plasticity of water use efficiency. These characteristics would enable a relatively fast micro-evolution of populations in response to the ongoing climate changes. Moreover, differentiation among populations in the studied traits would increase under the expected more productive future Atlantic conditions.

Local seed sourcing for sustainable forestry

Seed sourcing strategies are the basis for identifying genetic material meeting the requirements of future climatic conditions and social demands. Specifically, local seed sourcing has been extensively promoted, based on the expected adaptation of the populations to local conditions, but there are some limitations for the application. We analyzed Strict-sense local and Wide-sense local (based on climatic similarity) seed sourcing strategies. We determined species and genetic pools based on these strategies for 40 species and deployment zones in Spain. We also obtained the total number of seed sources and stands for these species in the EU countries. We analyzed the richness of the pools, the relationship with variables related to the use of the species in afforestation, and the availability of seed production areas approved for the production of reproductive material destined to be marketed. This study confirms the existence of extensive species and genetic local pools. Also, that the importance of these pools differs for different species, limitations being derived from the use of forest reproductive material and the existence of approved basic materials. Strategies derived from local seed sourcing approaches are the basis for the use of forest reproductive material because a large number of the species in the area considered in the study are under regulation. However, despite the extensive work done to approve basic materials, limitations based on the availability of seed production areas to provide local material for sustainable forestry are found in those species. Considering a Wide-sense local seed sourcing strategy we provide alternative pools in order to meet social demands under the actual regulations on marketing of reproductive materials.

Do People Understand and Observe the Effects of Climate Crisis on Forests? The Case Study of Cyprus

Recent reports stress the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the European Union (EU), especially in the south. Cyprus is an island in the south of EU and the eastern of the Mediterranean Sea. While Cyprus’ vulnerability is stressed, Cyprus was included in the worst-performing countries regarding EU carbon emission’s targets of 2020. For mitigating climate change, Cyprus could benefit for tailored education and improved policy making. This study analyses the perceptions of the Cypriot residents about climate change and forest degradation aiming (1) to gain a better understanding of whether Cypriot residents understand its importance, (2) to understand if the general public is able to observe the changes noted in the literature, (3) to understand how perceptions are differentiated across different demographic categories, and (4) to derive correlations between demographic data and perceptions. This is a quantitative study; a questionnaire was used as a tool and the responses received were 416. It was highlighted that 65.62% of the participants stated that they noticed moderate to very much degradation of Cypriot coniferous forests. A potential degradation reason was written down by 150 people, of whom 31.33% referred to tree die-back, while many stated decreased soil moisture and difficulty in regeneration. All these reasons of degradation were either stated or suspected in the literature. Additionally, the demographic analysis showed that there may be an association between employability and beliefs/observations about climate change. The results of the research could be used for tailored education, further research, and promoting environmentally friendly policies. This will support Cyprus and other countries in reaching their Green Deal targets and, consequently, mitigate the severe effects of climate change.

Niche differentiation in a postglacial colonizer, the bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus

Species-level environmental niche modeling has been crucial in efforts to understand how species respond to climate variation and change. However, species often exhibit local adaptation and intraspecific niche differences that may be important to consider in predicting responses to climate. Here, we explore whether phylogeographic lineages of the bank vole originating from different glacial refugia (Carpathian, Western, Eastern, and Southern) show niche differentiation, which would suggest a role for local adaptation in biogeography of this widespread Eurasian small mammal. We first model the environmental requirements for the bank vole using species-wide occurrences (210 filtered records) and then model each lineage separately to examine niche overlap and test for niche differentiation in geographic and environmental space. We then use the models to estimate past [Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene] habitat suitability to compare with previously hypothesized glacial refugia for this species. Environmental niches are statistically significantly different from each other for all pairs of lineages in geographic and environmental space, and these differences cannot be explained by habitat availability within their respective ranges. Together with the inability of most of the lineages to correctly predict the distributions of other lineages, these results support intraspecific ecological differentiation in the bank vole. Model projections of habitat suitability during the LGM support glacial survival of the bank vole in the Mediterranean region and in central and western Europe. Niche differences between lineages and the resulting spatial segregation of habitat suitability suggest ecological differentiation has played a role in determining the present phylogeographic patterns in the bank vole. Our study illustrates that models pooling lineages within a species may obscure the potential for different responses to climate change among populations.

Bridging the genotype-phenotype gap for a Mediterranean pine by semi-automatic crown identification and multispectral imagery

Progress in high-throughput phenotyping and genomics provides the potential to understand the genetic basis of plant functional differentiation. We developed a semi-automatic methodology based on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery for deriving tree-level phenotypes followed by genome-wide association study (GWAS). An RGB-based point cloud was used for tree crown identification in a common garden of Pinus halepensis in Spain. Crowns were combined with multispectral and thermal orthomosaics to retrieve growth traits, vegetation indices and canopy temperature. Thereafter, GWAS was performed to analyse the association between phenotypes and genomic variation at 235 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Growth traits were associated with 12 SNPs involved in cellulose and carbohydrate metabolism. Indices related to transpiration and leaf water content were associated with six SNPs involved in stomata dynamics. Indices related to leaf pigments and leaf area were associated with 11 SNPs involved in signalling and peroxisome metabolism. About 16-20% of trait variance was explained by combinations of several SNPs, indicating polygenic control of morpho-physiological traits. Despite a limited availability of markers and individuals, this study is provides a successful proof-of-concept for the combination of high-throughput UAV-based phenotyping with cost-effective genotyping to disentangle the genetic architecture of phenotypic variation in a widespread conifer.

Intraspecific responses to climate reveal nonintuitive warming impacts on a widespread thermophilic conifer

Many ecologically important forest trees from dry areas have been insufficiently investigated for their ability to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change, which hampers the implementation of mitigation policies. We analyzed 14 common-garden experiments across the Mediterranean which studied the widespread thermophilic conifer Pinus halepensis and involved 157 populations categorized into five ecotypes. Ecotype-specific tree height responses to climate were applied to projected climate change (2071-2100 ad), to project potential growth patterns both locally and across the species' range. We found contrasting ecotypic sensitivities to annual precipitation but comparatively uniform responses to mean temperature, while evidence of local adaptation for tree height was limited to mesic ecotypes. We projected intriguing patterns of response range-wide, implying either height inhibition or stimulation of up to 75%, and deduced that the ecotype currently experiencing more favorable (wetter) conditions will show the largest inhibition. Extensive height reductions can be expected for coastal areas of France, Greece, Spain and northern Africa. Our findings underline the fact that intraspecific variations in sensitivity to precipitation must be considered when projecting tree height responses of dry forests to future climate. The ecotype-specific projected performances call for management activities to ensure forest resilience in the Mediterranean through, for example, tailored deployment strategies.

Phenotypic integration and life history strategies among populations of Pinus halepensis: an insight through structural equation modelling

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Understanding inter-population variation in the allocation of resources to specific anatomical compartments and physiological processes is crucial to disentangle adaptive patterns in forest species. This work aims to evaluate phenotypic integration and trade-offs among functional traits as determinants of life history strategies in populations of a circum-Mediterranean pine that dwells in environments where water and other resources are in limited supply.

METHODS

Adult individuals of 51 populations of Pinus halepensis grown in a common garden were characterized for 11 phenotypic traits, including direct and indirect measures of water uptake at different depths, leaf area, stomatal conductance, chlorophyll content, non-structural carbohydrates, stem diameter and tree height, age at first reproduction and cone production. The population differentiation in these traits was tested through analysis of variance (ANOVA). The resulting populations' means were carried forward to a structural equation model evaluating phenotypic integration between six latent variables (summer water uptake depth, summer transpiration, spring photosynthetic capacity, growth, reserve accumulation and reproduction).

KEY RESULTS

Water uptake depth and transpiration covaried negatively among populations, as the likely result of a common selective pressure for drought resistance, while spring photosynthetic capacity was lower in populations originating from dry areas. Transpiration positively influenced growth, while growth was negatively related to reproduction and reserves among populations. Water uptake depth negatively influenced reproduction.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed patterns indicate a differentiation in life cycle features between fast-growing and slow-growing populations, with the latter investing significantly more in reproduction and reserves. We speculate that such contrasting strategies result from different arrays of life history traits underlying the very different ecological conditions that the Aleppo pine must face across its distribution range. These comprise, principally, drought as the main stressor and fire as the main ecological disturbance of the Mediterranean basin.

Looking for Local Adaptation: Convergent Microevolution in Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis)

Finding outlier loci underlying local adaptation is challenging and is best approached by suitable sampling design and rigorous method selection. In this study, we aimed to detect outlier loci (single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPs) at the local scale by using Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis), a drought resistant conifer that has colonized many habitats in the Mediterranean Basin, as the model species. We used a nested sampling approach that considered replicated altitudinal gradients for three contrasting sites. We genotyped samples at 294 SNPs located in genomic regions selected to maximize outlier detection. We then applied three different statistical methodologies-Two Bayesian outlier methods and one latent factor principal component method-To identify outlier loci. No SNP was an outlier for all three methods, while eight SNPs were detected by at least two methods and 17 were detected only by one method. From the intersection of outlier SNPs, only one presented an allelic frequency pattern associated with the elevational gradient across the three sites. In a context of multiple populations under similar selective pressures, our results underline the need for careful examination of outliers detected in genomic scans before considering them as candidates for convergent adaptation.

A hierarchical Bayesian Beta regression approach to study the effects of geographical genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation on species distribution range shifts

Global climate change (GCC) may be causing distribution range shifts in many organisms worldwide. Multiple efforts are currently focused on the development of models to better predict distribution range shifts due to GCC. We addressed this issue by including intraspecific genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of data in distribution range models. Both factors reflect the joint effect of ecoevolutionary processes on the geographical heterogeneity of populations. We used a collection of 301 georeferenced accessions of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana in its Iberian Peninsula range, where the species shows strong geographical genetic structure. We developed spatial and nonspatial hierarchical Bayesian models (HBMs) to depict current and future distribution ranges for the four genetic clusters detected. We also compared the performance of HBMs with Maxent (a presence-only model). Maxent and nonspatial HBMs presented some shortcomings, such as the loss of accessions with high genetic admixture in the case of Maxent and the presence of residual SAC for both. As spatial HBMs removed residual SAC, these models showed higher accuracy than nonspatial HBMs and handled the spatial effect on model outcomes. The ease of modelling and the consistency among model outputs for each genetic cluster was conditioned by the sparseness of the populations across the distribution range. Our HBMs enrich the toolbox of software available to evaluate GCC-induced distribution range shifts by considering both genetic heterogeneity and SAC, two inherent properties of any organism that should not be overlooked.

Inferring selection in instances of long-range colonization: The Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) in the Mediterranean Basin

Teasing apart the effects of natural selection and demography on current allele frequencies is challenging, due to both processes leaving a similar molecular footprint. In particular, when attempting to identify selection in species that have undergone a recent range expansion, the increase in genetic drift at the edges of range expansions ("allele surfing") can be a confounding factor. To address this potential issue, we first assess the long-range colonization history of the Aleppo pine across the Mediterranean Basin, using molecular markers. We then look for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) involved in local adaptation using: (a) environmental correlation methods (bayenv2), focusing on bioclimatic variables important for the species' adaptation (i.e., temperature, precipitation and water availability); and (b) FST -related methods (pcadapt). To assess the rate of false positives caused by the allele surfing effect, these results are compared with results from simulated SNP data that mimics the species' past range expansions and the effect of genetic drift, but with no selection. We find that the Aleppo pine shows a previously unsuspected complex genetic structure across its range, as well as evidence of selection acting on SNPs involved with the response to bioclimatic variables such as drought. This study uses an original approach to disentangle the confounding effects of drift and selection in range margin populations. It also contributes to the increased evidence that plant populations are able to adapt to new environments despite the expected accumulation of deleterious mutations that takes place during long-range colonizations.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.