Evaluating the impact of accounting for coral cover in large‐scale marine conservation prioritizations

Multiple events determine the distribution of fishes' early life stages in the Abrolhos Bank, Southwestern Atlantic

Fluctuations in reef fish settlement and recruitment significantly impact local population dynamics and adult population size. We use light traps to evaluate reef fish settlement in inshore and offshore reefs in the Abrolhos Bank, in addition to the spatio-temporal distribution patterns, and environmental variables' influence. Data were collected from inshore and offshore reefs, and statistical analyses, including GLMs, PERMANOVA and nMDS, aimed to understand spatial-temporal species distribution patterns and the relationship between environmental variables. Results indicate greater species abundance and diversity offshore, influenced by winds, tides, and distance from shore, explaining 50% of larval patterns and highlighting the importance of spatial-temporal variations in early-life reef fish assemblages. However, several factors, including habitat type, quality, complexity, seascape configuration, and MPA location, may influence these patterns. Additionally, we provide evidence that commercially important species like Lutjanids use Abrolhos reef areas as nursery grounds.

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change

Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.

Integrating larval connectivity into the marine conservation decision-making process across spatial scales

Larval dispersal connectivity is typically integrated into spatial conservation decisions at regional or national scales, but implementing agencies struggle with translating these methods to local scales. We used larval dispersal connectivity at regional (hundreds of kilometers) and local (tens of kilometers) scales to aid in design of networks of no-take reserves in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. We used Marxan with Connectivity informed by biophysical larval dispersal models and remotely sensed coral reef habitat data to design marine reserve networks for 4 commercially important reef species across the region. We complemented regional spatial prioritization with decision trees that combined network-based connectivity metrics and habitat quality to design reserve boundaries locally. Decision trees were used in consensus-based workshops with stakeholders to qualitatively assess site desirability, and Marxan was used to identify areas for subsequent network expansion. Priority areas for protection and expected benefits differed among species, with little overlap in reserve network solutions. Because reef quality varied considerably across reefs, we suggest reef degradation must inform the interpretation of larval dispersal patterns and the conservation benefits achievable from protecting reefs. Our methods can be readily applied by conservation practitioners, in this region and elsewhere, to integrate connectivity data across multiple spatial scales.

Oceanic differences in coral-bleaching responses to marine heatwaves

Anomalously high ocean temperatures have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration over the last several decades because of greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming and marine heatwaves. Reef-building corals are sensitive to such temperature anomalies that commonly lead to coral bleaching, mortality, and changes in community structure. Yet, despite these overarching effects, there are geographical differences in thermal regimes, evolutionary histories, and past disturbances that may lead to different bleaching responses of corals within and among oceans. Here we examined the overall bleaching responses of corals in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, using both a spatially explicit Bayesian mixed-effects model and a deep-learning neural-network model. We used a 40-year global dataset encompassing 23,288 coral-reef surveys at 11,058 sites in 88 countries, from 1980 to 2020. Focusing on ocean-wide differences we assessed the relationships between the percentage of bleached corals and different temperature-related metrics alongside a suite of environmental variables. We found that while high sea-surface temperatures were consistently, and strongly, related to coral bleaching within all oceans, there were clear geographical differences in the relationships between coral bleaching and most environmental variables. For instance, there was an increase in coral bleaching with depth in the Atlantic Ocean whereas the opposite was observed in the Indian Ocean, and no clear trend could be seen in the Pacific Ocean. The standard deviation of thermal-stress anomalies was negatively related to coral bleaching in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, but not in the Indian Ocean. Globally, coral bleaching has progressively occurred at higher temperatures over the last four decades within the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, although, again, there were differences among the three oceans. Together, such patterns highlight that historical circumstances and geographical differences in oceanographic conditions play a central role in contemporary coral-bleaching responses.

Effectiveness of management zones for recovering parrotfish species within the largest coastal marine protected area in Brazil

The establishment of multiple zones offering different protection levels within a Marine Protected Area (MPA) can minimize social conflicts while maintaining associated biodiversity benefits such as fish population replenishment. Parrotfishes are among one of the most ecologically important reef fishes; yet extremely overexploited worldwide. In this context, well-designed priority management areas allowing no fishing activity (no-take zones) could help recover fish species, such as parrotfishes, through a MPA zoning process. Here, we tested this hypothesis by identifying the spatial configuration of zones that maximize the recovery of endangered parrotfish species (Scarus trispinosus; Scarus zelindae; Sparisoma amplum; Sparisoma axillare; Sparisoma frondosum) at the largest MPA in Brazil protecting nearshore coral reefs (MPA Costa dos Corais). We used parrotfish distribution data to produce species distribution models (SDMs) and combined them with conservation planning tools to delineate priority zones following a systematic approach. Then, we contrasted priority zones against non-systematic, newly designed no-take zones based on managers' and stakeholders' perspectives. After mapping the predicted abundance of each species within both zones based upon field surveys, we found that priority zones were more effective than non-systematic ones for the protection of two out of the five species: Scarus trispinosus and Sparisoma amplum. Thus, we considered that designing systematic zones was particularly relevant for increased protection of the two parrotfish species facing the largest decline. The prioritization analyses also showed that priority areas for parrotfish conservation following a systematic approach were mostly located surrounding and within no-take zones delineated by local stakeholders. The spatial overlap between systematic and non-systematic zones was of 38%. Hence, our study reinforces the importance of considering scientific information and methods (e.g., spatial distribution data and prioritization analyses) as a complementary strategy along with local stakeholders' knowledge, for delineating and refining management zones within MPAs.